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Soaring into Playoffs: Assessing FlyQuest’s Chances of Securing 2nd Seed

Image Courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr

After Week 6, FlyQuest finds themselves in an enviable position, and one new to the org: top cut in playoffs. How likely is it that FlyQuest finds themselves in 2nd place at the end of the second round robin?

A Cushy Buffer

FlyQuest have a two win lead over the soup of teams in 3rd (Immortals, Team Liquid and TSM, all at 6-6). They play all of these teams in the coming weeks (TSM in week 7, IMT in Week 8 and TL in Week 9), but that two-victory buffer puts them in good position to secure at least 2nd place and a bye. TSM and IMT have both looked shaky in recent weeks. Both teams played CLG in Week 6. TSM lost to the 10th-place squad (truly Counter Logic), while IMT scraped out a win on Monday night in what can charitably be described as a rollercoaster. But while TSM and IMT may be struggling to find their footing, TL may have just hit the ground running this past weekend.

A (Not-so) Dark Horse

Impact and Team Liquid are looking to prove they’re still a contender for the Spring Split title

Between waiting for Mads “Broxah” Brock-Pedersen to arrive and Yiliang “Doublelift” Peng’s admitted lack of motivation, spring split has not gone smoothly for TL. Their 6-6 record has included some incredibly ugly losses, including to 100T and Immortals. The team seemed to have new life in Week 6, however, as Edward “Tactical” Ra subbed in for an ailing Doublelift. He went deathless as TL steamrolled the competition (including TSM). It was a great LCS debut for the North American ADC talent, and it might just be the spark plug TL needs to sneak into a playoff bye. So what does this mean for FlyQuest fans?

A FlyQuest fan’s Worst Nightmare

The absolute worst case scenario for a FlyQuest fan is that the team loses to TSM, IMT and TL and slips out of the Top 2.  But how likely is that? Given current trends and team playstyles, not very likely. IMT has been on a downward trend since Week 4, losing to EG, GG, and DIG over the past 5 games. The other two games? A hard loss to C9 and a unconvincing victory over CLG. FlyQuest shouldn’t be worried about the Immortals.

But FlyQuest might need to worry about TSM and TL. TL is coming off of a hot week, and besides their games against FlyQuest and C9, no other team looks like they could challenge Liquid if they play like they did in Week 5. But what’s one loss? FlyQuest can survive that, especially given that TL plays C9 on the final day of the split. They can afford to drop a game, surely.

But they may have to worry about dropping that game if they lose to TSM. TSM is coming off of a rough week, sure, but FlyQuest barely beat Bjerg and the bois the first time they met. If they drop a game to TSM, and a game to Liquid, and Liquid pull off a win at C9… there goes being able to select your first opponent in playoffs.

A Wing and a Dream

Courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr
Curry and PowerOfEvil are all smiles after a FlyQuest win (and at the thought of finishing Top 2)

But how likely is that scenario, really? After all, C9 has only lost one mid turret all split! And TSM is coming off of a really rough week- and they have to play C9 on Saturday. Ultimately, FlyQuest (and their fans) should be confident, but not complacent. If they win the matchups they should win and drop a game to TL, they should be fine. However, they need to win Sunday against TSM to truly be safe. Really, to be truly safe, FlyQuest need to win out. But dropping one game wouldn’t be the end of the world. As long as they stay focused, they should find themselves sitting pretty come playoffs.

 

What are your predictions for Week Seven? Tell Richard what you think @Imp_Richard

All images courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr

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