Right now, we’re witnessing madness in North American competitive League of Legends scene.
NCAA trademarked that one term that everyone is thinking about. No free ads.
Outside of Cloud9 and Golden Guardians cementing their statuses as one of the best and one of the worst teams in the region, the rest is up in the air. Not only does it make the games entertaining, it makes gambling a lot more frustrating, not knowing what is real versus what is a façade.
Most of the time, its fun. Other times, you watch FlyQuest tilt off the face of the earth against Cloud9 and you throw away all of the early game statistics that favored FlyQuest.
With that being said, here are five lines that are worth taking a look at:
Golden Guardians to Secure First Dragon +120
Golden Guardians have been playing with house money all season. Given their transparency regarding the outlook of the season – as they made it incredibly clear they were going to struggle with a developmental roster, it has been somewhat concerning that Nick “Inero” Smith and company haven’t necessarily excelled on the strategic end. A coaching staff that has been known for making the most out of any situation really hasn’t been able to figure out how to use the likes of Aiden “Niles” Tidwell, Ethan “Iconic” Wilkinson and Nick “Ablazeolive” Abbott.
Hopefully, with the lack of pressure, they might find the light at the end of the tunnel.
Dignitas will more than likely select the blue side today, where they have a 17% first dragon rate compared to Golden Guardians’ 50% first dragon rate on red side. Dignitas have used the blue side of the rift to really open up the top of the map – having a 73% herald control percentage and a 67% first turret rate (-185).
While it is entirely possible for Dignitas to lock in Kalista for early dragon pressure, the lack of success across the region when it comes to first dragon on blue side provides just enough comfort to think a “free” Golden Guardians could manage to secure the much expected first dragon (+120).
It also doesn’t hurt to think that a team with nothing to lose may finally have their more passive members let loose. The listed over/under on the combined kills is 22.5 but with both teams averaging above that amount by a decent margin (-115) – with Dignitas averaging 28.884 combined kills per game on blue side and Golden Guardians averaging 24.36 on red side, it might not hurt to bet the over.
TSM to Secure First Dragon -115
What is potentially a “make-or-break” match for two teams fighting for the right to be considered legitimate contenders in North America could lead to some incredibly tight gameplay – potentially going under the listed 23.5 combined kills (-115) despite both teams averaging above that amount on the season. But it also could mean we’ll see some incredibly “chalk” gameplay when it comes to the early game approach.
Even with 100 Thieves competing with a new mid-laner this week, Vegas still are not willing to give plus odds on most prop bets.
With so much uncertainty, we have to look at what feels right — blue side securing first turret, red side securing first dragon. 100 Thieves have an 86% first turret rate on blue side this split (-130), along with an 86% herald control rate. TSM have a respectable 67% first dragon rate on red-side this split,
Team Liquid to Secure First Dragon -115
The last time these two met, it was a beatdown from Team Liquid in Week 3 — a much needed performance after a slow start. But since then, it has primarily still been the Cloud9 show with Team Liquid trying to find their identity.
Cloud9 will get the chance to showcase just how dominat they are on their current 7-0 blue side but Team Liquid may be able to keep things interesting with their superior red side dragon control. Their 80% first dragon rate (-115) and 63% dragon control rate on red side may be the much needed boost to help them pull off the victory. However, it may come at the cost of an early game gold deficit in trading dragon pressure for turret gold as Cloud9 has an 86% first turret rate (-120) on blue side this split and a 69% herald control.
Counter Logic Gaming to Secure First Blood -110
In what is the best streak in all of competitive League of Legends at the moment, Counter Logic Gaming is surprisingly getting decent odds to secure first blood against FlyQuest — who are actually the moneyline favorites entering today’s match-up (-125). Despite Counter Logic Gaming looking as if they are piecing things together and FlyQuest looking to be collapsing at the seams, Vegas cannot get enough of the Brandon “Josedeodo” Villegas hype.
Truthfully I am the same way, his hair is great. But, money is also nice.
FlyQuest are 1-7 on red side this split but have managed to have 63% first dragon rate on said side (-125). This has come at the cost of not securing a single first turret and not securing a single Rift Herald on red side this split. Counter Logic Gaming has been able to secure first turret 67% of the time on blue side this split (-110) with only a 45% herald control rate.
Both teams actually have incredibly impressive first blood rates this season — with the match-up featuring a 100% blue side first blood rate from Counter Logic Gaming and an 88% red side first blood rate from FlyQuest. In fact, FlyQuest have secured first blood in three out of their last four matches.
But you have to let the CLG first blood streak ride. It even feels like you have to ride the wave of a potential CLG win streak (-105 to win). And if you’re feeling lucky, you can bet on CLG secure first inhibitor (+105).
Evil Geniuses and Immortals to Go Over 23.5 Combined Kills -115
Evil Geniuses find themselves tied for second in the LCS with five other teams but have yet to really have their statement win. Their two-game winning streak has featured less than stellar gameplay, with the wins practically falling into their laps. A confused Immortals team may just be the punching bag they need to regain their form.
Dennis “Svenskeren” Johnsen continues to be one of the best junglers in North America at securing dragons in the LCS and Evil Geniuses are the league’s best team at securing first dragon on blue side at 71% (-240). Even better, they’re also able to secure first turret (-190) despite not necessarily focusing on herald control.
But as the prop in the title suggests, Evil Geniuses likes to fight. They have the second highest combined kills per minute and the fourth highest kill-to-death ratio in North America. Their average combined kills per game on blue-side this split stands at 30.48 — much higher than the listed line. The belief behind it is that Immortals have been able to not die as much in matches. However that simply does not feel like an option against Evil Geniuses.
“From Our Haus to Yours”