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League of Legends

Every LPL Team’s Probability at Making Playoffs

Explaining how the LPL seeding for Worlds will work

As the LPL approaches the playoffs, teams and fans alike are getting ready for the final push. Some teams have a clear shot at playoffs, while others will need a miracle. For the purposes of today’s article, the results of last split were taken into consideration. To make playoffs, a team needs 8 victories, and can’t suffer more than 8 losses.

TOP Esports: Already in playoffs

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
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Unsurprisingly, the second-placed team is all but locked into playoffs. While they can still mathematically be eliminated, the chance of that happening is near 0. Currently sitting at 8-0, they are already at the 8 match wins necessary to get into playoffs last split. It’s just a matter of time before they officially lock the spot in.

Victory Five: Pretty Good Chances

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
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The 0:16 team from last split is now a single match victory away from locking in their spot in playoffs. The only reason why V5 don’t get into the “very good chances” tier is due to match difficulty. The only bottom tier team left for them to play is Rogue Warriors. So, due to strength of schedule, V5 sits at the pretty good chances tier.

JD Gaming: Very Good Chances

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

The current reigning champions are also a single match away from locking their spot. And unlike Victory Five, they still face multiple bottom of the table teams, like LNG, BLG and eStar. With three struggling teams on their plate, it seems like a matter of time before JDG confirm their spot.

Invictus Gaming: Very Good Chances

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

Another member of the elite four, IG are also a single match away from the 8 match number. And, much like JDG before them, their schedule is fairly gracious, as they face LNG. They also face three middle of the pack teams that in theory, they have the advantage against, which are OMG, RNG and Vici. Only needing a single victory against any one of these teams leaves IG in a good spot for playoffs.
Team WE: Pretty Good Chances

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

Sitting in fifth with six match wins, Team WE are two match wins away from locking in their playoff spot. With multiple low-to-mid-tier teams on their schedule, such as BLG, OMG, eStar, and LNG, Team WE shouldn’t have a problem locking in their playoff spot. It’s important to note that due to their spring placement, they are still in contention for a spot at Worlds.
Suning: Pretty Good Chances

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

Another team sitting at 6-3, Suning need to pick up two more wins. Luckily for them, they are facing both OMG and BLG, two teams that have been somewhat struggling. They are also facing RNG and Vici, two dangerous teams, but winnable none the less. While not as easy as Team WE, Suning should be able to make it into playoffs.
LGD: Decent Chances

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
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Moving on to LGD, things start to get a bit dicey. LGD, Vici, FPX, and RNG are all somewhat clumped up, and only two of them can make it into playoffs. However, LGD has a big advantage when it comes to strength of schedule. They face BLG, Rogue Warriors and LNG, all teams that they should be able to take down. They also face the other three teams challenging them for a spot, so a victory there would all but eliminate that team as well.

Vici: Uphill battle

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
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Despite currently holding onto what would be the final playoff spot, Vici have an uphill battle to maintain that spot. This is due to two other teams trying to take that spot away from them, while they have a rough schedule ahead. They still have to face IG, JDG and TOP, and not to mention Suning and LGD, who are both ahead of them. While not impossible, their path to playoffs won’t be easy.
FunPlus Phoenix: Decent Chances

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
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The after performing well in spring, FPX are currently sitting outside of the top eight. In a four-way tie with other teams, FPX have the upper hand over two of them: they still face quite a few bottom of the table teams. Dominus, OMG, and Rogue Warriors should all be favorable matches for FPX. These wins would put them at 8 wins, and hopefully for them, secure their playoffs spot.

RNG: Uphill Battle

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
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The fourth and final team tied at five wins is RNG. While in theory they have three easy matches ahead of them, in DMO, BLG, and Rogue Warriors, RNG’s inconsistency is what leaves room for concern. They tend to have brilliant series, followed by poor performances. This not only leaves room for upsets, but also leads to unnecessary game losses. Considering the tie-breaker is game wins, RNG suffered more 0-2 losses than other middle of the pack teams, possibly leading to future elimination.
Bilibili Gaming: Long Shot

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

BLG are currently leading the pack of teams with three match wins. As one of the lower half of the table teams, BLG have only a few matches that they should reliably be the favorites. And that wouldn’t be enough. BLG will need to upset quite a few of the big boys if they want to get into playoffs. They will also rely on other teams causing upsets, which is always less than ideal.
OMG: Living on a prayer

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
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The second team with three match wins, OMG needs nothing short of a miracle to make it in. Despite somewhat improving, the only team that they are currently favorites against is eStar. Other than them, all of OMG’s opponents are ones listed as good candidates to make it into playoffs. OMG will need to go all out and then some if they want to make it.
EDG: Long Shot

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

The third team tied with three wins is EDG. After making playoffs last split, this split can only be described as disappointing for fans. They still face LNG and eStar, which are winnable matches. They also face BLG, a direct rival, and so in theory, it’s a 50/50 match. Excluding those matches, EDG have fairly tough opponents. The good news for EDG fans is, the toughest teams are behind them. The highest placing opponents of theirs are FPX, LGD, and Vici. If EDG improve in time, these matches are, in theory, winnable.
LNG: Living on a prayer

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

At the bottom of the table is LNG. After taking a win off FPX and a win off RNG, LNG did nothing for the rest of the split. Currently sitting at 2-7, they can still, theoretically, make it. However, with matches against IG, LGD, WE and JDG still in store for them, their playoffs hopes are probably but a mere distant dream.
eStar: Living on a prayer

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

How the mighty have fallen. After doing well in the Spring Split, the team was unable to reproduce the results in summer. Currently sitting at eight match losses, the only way they make it in now is if they win every single one of their matches. Considering that they will face TOP Esports, a team that hasn’t lost all split, this isn’t likely to happen.
Rogue Warriors: Living on a prayer

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

Despite picking up a win against Dominus, it was probably too little too late. Like eStar above them, RW would need to win every single one of their matches. While they do face quite a few teams that are also struggling, it seems unlikely that they will win seven matches in a row. Especially considering that FPX, LGD, and RNG are some of their opponents.
Dominus: Eliminated

Every LPL team's probability at making playoffs
Image Courtesy of Leaguepedia

Lastly, Dominus are the only team that by last splits results, have been eliminated. Sitting at nine losses, the best record they could hope for is 7-9, which still wouldn’t be enough. And with their recent results, getting to those seven match wins is still very unlikely, especially considering that most of their opponents are mid-table teams that only rely on themselves to make it in.

 

And that concludes this week’s article on every LPL team’s probability at making playoffs. Again, a reminder that this was based on spring’s results, where an 8:8 was necessary to make it in. Next week’s article will discuss Worlds, and which teams have a good shot at making it.


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