The (Almost) Runback: A 2022 100 Thieves Preview

Sometimes, we’re “end destination” thinkers.

Think about flying for a vacation. A terrible layover or a terrible flight experience can easily be forgotten if you make it to your destination. You forget that an unnamed airline sent everyone to the wrong game, or that turbulence caused someone in the middle seat to pin you against the window of the plane.

But we need to remember this moments. Remember what it was like so that we are able to react appropriately in the future.

100 Thieves are entering the 2022 season once again as a team with high expectations. While their 2021 season ended on a high note — with the team making an appearance at Worlds, their season was relatively shaky. Making massive changes to their mid and coach kept them afloat from what appeared to be an impending collapse.

Surprisingly, the 100 Thieves front office was feeling confident that the team was in a position to grow. With only one main roster addition (technically), the team will be running it back with their summer split line-up. And that might not be good enough.

Here’s a trivia question: remember the last time a team actively committed to a line-up featuring two top-laners in the LCS?

2017 Cloud9.

The team would test a system featuring Jeong “Impact” Eon-young as their primary starter with Jeon “Ray” Ji-won also being available as a substitute. It was labeled a “sword and shield” model — Ray was the playmaking top-laner, Impact was the rock Cloud9 could rely on. Giving Ray the opportunity to learn and develop under a world champion was seen valuable at the time.

But, as they would say in their DUOS feature, you could still hit with a shield.

Impact participated in 77 out of the team’s domestic matches along with being the team’s sole top-laner at Worlds while Ray played 28 total matches for the year. Despite having a shorter contract compared to his teammates, he clearly was cementing his status as the best in the region.

And he would do just that on Team Liquid in the following season. 

Meanwhile, Ray hadn’t done enough to inspire more confidence in him. Both players would be out of the team in the following season. It confused Cloud9’s identity. They would still make to the World Championship stage after a rocky summer split. But the value it would bring to the team was minimal.

Or what about the other positions that have seen active switches?

Evil Geniuses took a chance during the second half of their 2021 season. Inspired by the level of play out of their academy jungle, Juan “Contractz” Garcia would get the nod over Dennis “Svenskeren” Johnsen. Their stylistic difference was the ripple that seemingly were taking them over the top in North America. However, it would also plague them when it mattered the most. While blame was put onto the coaching staff for their misread on the meta, teams were now prepared for Contractz. Better strategy, better preparation stifled the impact of the switch. And even with Svenskeren returning to the line-up for two games in the post-season, the team wouldn’t be on the same wavelength.

This history is what makes 100 Thieves decision more fascinating with their two top-laners.

100 Thieves are electing to run a 6-man roster. Their primary starter appears to be man once labeled as their franchise guy: Kim “Ssumday” Chan-ho. But in the shadows sits Milan “Tenacity” Oleksij, the crown jewel of their developmental pipeline.

Ssumday’s 2021 season was forgetful at best. With 100 Thieves’ bottom lane receiving a decent amount of jungle attention, Ssumday was forced into weakside situations where he wasn’t necessarily excelling. 100 Thieves’ biggest problem would be Can “Closer” Çelik being forced into reacting rather than being a proactive jungler. Laning blunders from a veteran of the game was relatively surprising. Plus, this was supposed to be his proving year. He finally had a team.

On the other hand, Tenacity has continued to improve his game. Considered to be one of the best players in the academy system last season, there was the expectation that he would get consideration for a LCS spot. Especially with his performance against Evil Geniuses as a substitute and his solo queue performance during Worlds, the hype train was in full force.

But for the first time in his competitive career, he will be playing with a jungle not named Shane Kenneth “Kenvi” Espinoza. This is important. The two were excellent in the minors, displaying clear chemistry. More importantly, they had the mutual understanding of how to play the game together. Not only will he have to get used to a new system — which can be easy for some — he’ll have to get used to a new partner — not so easy. We’ve seen him really mature as a player, now we’ll have to see him mature as a professional player. He may no longer get that same level of attention, or may not even be able to develop that deep of a chemistry with another jungler.

And with the signings pointing to him being the future, he’ll likely have to prove it this year.

Contracts tell a great story.

Ssumday did not receive a contract extension this offseason and his contract will expire in November of 2022. Meanwhile, Tenacity is on a contract expected to expire in 2024. The future is clearly Tenacity. The question is why not trust your future now. Not only are 100 Thieves putting themselves into a sticky situation from a strategic perspective, there’s the added political aspect that comes with talent management.

Despite being bailed out, general manager Christopher Smith was very much on the hot seat given the amount of spending the team was doing without much results. Even his acquisition of the incredibly talented Felix “Abbedagge” Braun could be seen as questionable given the amount of money spent. Abbedagge played really well in the summer split and really assimilated well into the 100 Thieves lineup. Credit rightfully should be given to all members involved.

The man himself would earn second-team All-Pro honors for a reason. The other mid-season acquisition Bok “Reapered” Han-gyu built an excellent strategic vision that was simple to execute. And Abbedagge would be paired with his former Royal Bandits teammate Closer and the two would lead the league in mid-jungle proximity.

It was fascinating to see how well the new 100 Thieves would play through their mid when they avoided allowing Tanner “Damonte” Damonte to play the map a split prior. It was the strategy the Golden Guardians core was most comfortable with.

Just a thought.

Understandably, this provides some sense of confidence in running it back.

In wins last season, it was a domination from start to finish from 100 Thieves. They would average over 2000 gold leads at 15 minutes, exceptional turret takes and great neutral objective control. But they were terrible at fighting their way back into the games. Their losses primarily would center around early game blunders, mistakes or deficits.

100 Thieves were like a team that had a really good running back — you want to be in a situation where you can give him as many carries as he likes and not have to worry about the time. If, hypothetically, they were down by a touchdown with two minutes ago, you wouldn’t be able to use him as much. Instead, you might have to pass the ball, switch up your game plan.

If Closer couldn’t get the game going, star marksman Victor “FBI” Huang may not have been able to snowball the game.

Taken from the 2021 summer split, when the team is in a difficult position, they would begin to shift their resource allocation. FBI will receive more waves in an effort to catch him back up to speed but teams would continue to pressure the marksman and punish errors. Out of 54 wins last season, 14 wins were secured when trailing at 10 minutes and 9 came when trailing at 15 minutes. And this is contrasted with having 25 games where he was behind in gold at 15 minutes. W

Laning deficits when talking about the 100 Thieves bottom lane are incredibly important. Choi “huhi” Jae-hyun ranked towards the top of the standings among supports that stayed with their duo. So any time the early game was forced out of their control and they were forced to be reactive, it fought against their overall strategy.

Does time fix this issue?

That’s the big question mark.

Again, this is essentially a runback. Runbacks in competitive League of Legends aren’t a thing — unless you’re the incredible G2 Esports team or an incredible far east team. This was a flawed League of Legends team that really didn’t display any strategic flexibility or an ability to fight in every situation. Success and performance while connected aren’t the same thing. One can be successful despite not having an incredible performance.

The team did add a new assistant coach in Alfonso “Mithy” Aguirre Rodríguez. While acknowledging his understanding of the game and the insight he brings to the table, his time as a coach has been questionable. He’s now had two head coaching stints under his belt that haven’t necessarily been impressive and he has continued to want to be an assistant coach. He isn’t a drafting wizard but is a  great mind about how to play the game. But Reapered has had a history of wanting teams to play his general way, his strategy. Former players have spoken out about this problem when on Cloud9.

Can Mithy breakthrough this barrier or is Reapered changing his approach to coaching?

It unfortunately feels like 100 Thieves are destined for similar problems from their 2021.

Despite having great talent, we might have seen the full potential of this line-up. Even with the ability to upgrade their top-laner mid-split, it doesn’t necessarily address the rigid structure that comes with the bottom side of the map. While FBI and Huhi continue to be an impressive bottom lane, their one-dimensionality is an obstacle.

Given the massive changes other line-ups have undergone, 100 Thieves may find the early portions of the season a little easier — as teams develop chemistry. But when inevitably meet the first block in the road, it will be interesting to see how they react.

Will they even be able to react?

The team has had a long off-season to figure things out. Boot-camping in Korea is always a great sign as the team can bond — unless your the “Breaking Point” era Team Liquid. But it will be fascinating to see what direction the team takes. Will they change their formula, will Tenacity get more reps early?

Or will this be another year where 100 Thieves return to earth?

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