Baseball odds are ones that are extremely important to understand as baseball is one of the sports that you can truly make quite a bit of money betting on if you understand them. The reason for this is that there are over 2,000 games in a season and thus that many opportunities to make money. There are almost as many games in a few weeks of baseball as there are in a full season of football.
That is why this guide is going to help you learn what these odds are and how you can best utilize them to give you the best chance to make some money. Obviously just understanding them is half the battle, understanding the game and the players is the other half that can truly make you a contender when betting on baseball.
A lot of this has to do with the increasing popularity of sports betting. Ever since the United States relaxed its laws for sports betting in 2018, more and more states have been allowing this form of betting. It has become so popular that even a sport like baseball, one that has had a tenuous relationship with gambling, has allowed for DFS and sportsbooks to become sponsors of their teams and games. It is truly something that is taking over and you would do well to become more knowledgeable about the subject.
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Understanding Baseball Odds
Truthfully, baseball odds are not too dissimilar to most sports. They are based on which team is going to win and if you want to bet on something a little more complicated you can bet by how many points as well. These are the basics of betting as a whole but this guide will dive a bit deeper into how betting odds work in baseball more specifically then other
betting guides.
As stated above, odds are generally the same across the many different sports but specifically the four major sports of the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL or football, baseball, basketball and hockey respectively. They have different types of odds.
The Moneyline is where you are betting who will outright win the game. The run line or the point spread is where you are better on whether a team will win or lose by a certain amount of runs. To be clear, runs are points in baseball. Then there are over and unders. This is where you can bet is a team will score a certain amount of runs or not regardless of if they win the game. You are able to see and have combinations of all three as well.
All of these odds and different ways to bet are based on probability. They can signal the probability of your team winning or losing or what the likelihood is that they will score a certain amount of runs. Sometimes, it is nothing of these these and more shows potential profits.
Components of Baseball Betting Odds
Below is going to be an even deeper dive of
betting odds explained
and how they specifically pertain to baseball.
Moneyline Odds
With moneyline odds there are positive and negative values. The positive is accompanied by a + symbol and that means that team is favored to lose. While the negative has a - symbol and that team is expected to win.
Then there are numbers give to each and they are based on how much you are expected to win if you pick them. The + or underdog will give you more money per $100 you bet while the - or favorite will give you less per $100 bet.
For example, if one team is +150 and you bet on them correctly you will win $50 for every $100 that you bet. Whereas is you correctly bet on a team that is -200 you will win $100 for every $200 that you bet.
Run Line Odds
Runline odds as stated before are just the point spread. They differ from the moneyline in the sense that they are based one of a team can cover the spread.
For example, if a team is +2 and you bet on that team then you have some leeway where you win the bet if the team loses by 2 runs or less. On the flipside, if you bet on a team with -2 odds and they win but by only 1 run then you actually lose the bet.
Similar to the moneyline they will attach bigger numbers of + or - as well to show how much per $100 you will make as well.
Over/Under Odds
The last on is the over and under odds where they will assign a certain amount of runs scored overall. You can win on these regardless of who wins or loses.
For example, if you bet on a team that is expected to have over 5.5 runs and they score less then you lose. Then if you bet on a team to score under 5.5 runs and they do then you win and vice versa for both.
You can bet on the game itself to have a certain over or under of runs/points and you can do the same with each individual team in a game.
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Below are some factors that influence how baseball odds are calculated. This is where things will mainly differ from other traditional sports.
Team Strength and Performance
This one may seem a bit more complicated and for the oddsmakers it is much more complicated. This is mainly because it is based on team records, the standings and their recent performances.What this means is that even if a team is at the bottom of their division but they have won three games in a row their odds of winning will go up and your payout will be less. This can have multiple ramifications. Maybe a team had bad luck with injuries or they acquired a player at the deadline that is helping them. This can help them not only win but increase their odds of doing so.
Another is an analysis of pitching matchups. Something that is unique to baseball is that in some ways, one player has to best nine players multiple times to win games. While it is a team sport certain pitchers can control the game.
This is why it can change the odds. Say the best pitcher on the worst team is facing the worst starting pitcher on the best team. The odds may still favor the better team but they may be lesser due to the fact that the other team’s best pitcher can still control the hitters on the other team. It is truly a very unique situation to a team game like baseball and one that can make betting on a game like baseball that much more interesting.
Injuries and Player Availability
As prefaced above, player injuries can both positively and negatively change the odds in the favor of a certain team. This is especially true in baseball where players can be out for months and still come back to have meaningful playing time.
This makes it so odds may change just based on how long that player is out. If they are day-to-day which is common for lesser injuries, then them being in the lineup can drastically change the odds. It is for this exact reason, and for fairness to the other team, that lineups are posted before games.
Then there are player’s availability in general. If a player if having an off day because they have played every game for the last month, that too can effect the odds. This is why it is important to monitor player availability and lineup changes.
Sometimes a player is a late scratch as well due to illness or an injury while getting ready for the game. This can literally happen even a few minutes before the game. So it is important that you are always checking for lineups before the game begins.
Weather Conditions and Venue
Lastly, you will want to watch for the weather. This is pretty unique in baseball as well. Because they cannot play in the rain and are a mostly outdoors sport, there are many games that are pushed back due to the weather.
Also, you have to consider things like the rain and the sun. If the sun is bad at certain times, players may miss flyballs. This can cause there to be more runs. Whereas if it is very windy, the ball may carry to give more extra-base hits or even push homeruns or foul balls back into play.
Even the venue is something that you have to consider when betting on baseball games. For example, if you bet on players in Colorado, the higher altitude makes it so that there are more homeruns. Or in smaller stadiums like Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, there are more likely to be homeruns.
Even the walls such as at historic Fenway Park can be a factor. If you have more right-handers in the lineup than lefthanders you may have to be careful about the amount of runs that are scored as the Big Green Monster helps to keep balls in play on the left side of the field.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
There are a few common mistakes that you can make when betting on baseball. The first is chasing losses. What this means is that you are chasing something or a certain team that you really believe will break through. You have to be careful because losing streaks and slumps are hard to predict and play around. There are 162 games in a season and the ebbs and flows of that season can lead to bad betting habits.
The other is ignoring key information. This includes but is not limited to checking the weather, the lineup or seeing what the pitching matchups are. If you are just betting on the team most likely to win or by the team name alone then you are going to be in trouble and will lose a lot of your hard-earned cash.
Lastly is overlooking the line movement. The line in baseball is constantly changing. Because there are so many factors going into the odds of certain games, the line is truly changing up until game time. You should be watching it over the days and hopefully grabbing it at the best time as you learn about any major factors changing.
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Looking back, you have not only learned about baseball odds but the many factors that go into making them. It is was makes betting on baseball difficult but also extremely fun. There are a lot of games to bet on and things can be overwhelming but if you use this guide it should help you learn how to navigate the waters. If you want to know more about certain types of betting too you should look up more like
betting parlay explained.
Do remember that success comes from failure. This is especially true in baseball where you are a Hall of Fame player for getting a hit three times out of 10. Use this knowledge and those failures to drive yourself to be better.
Lastly, remember to gamble responsibly and within your means.
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