During the group phases or regular season of esports events, dominant teams usually seem dominant. They lead the table, report a large margin of victory in map metrics, and attract a lot of money from the betting community. However, once the playoffs occur, dominant teams typically do not continue to perform at an above-average level compared to what was expected prior to the start of the playoffs. For betting and gambling markets, this is indicative of a structural issue in how the market sets odds for dominant teams.
In the playoffs, it’s all about variance being reduced due to a best of 3 or best of 5 series. In addition to preparing for just one team, each underdog is preparing with specific targets when preparing against the favorite. Bettors who access the 1x bet login to place their bets are typically using the odds that are being listed by sportsbook sites; however, favorite teams are typically priced based on seasonal data versus how each specific series would play out. The pricing gap between each of these situations is typically where bettors can find value in the mispricing of odds.
In the group stage, teams do a more general preparation, while as they move through the playoffs their preparation becomes more precise in nature. The other teams will analyze the opponent’s map pool, vetoes, economy and player positioning habits. If the favourite team has a predictable strategy, the gap in skill between the teams will rapidly decrease. In addition, the betting markets generally don’t factor in the amount of concentrated prep time, especially when they base their odds on historical win percentages.
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Betting players appear to connect with teams more strongly due to their previous successes. When large numbers of players gravitate towards one team, the line for that team will also drop. As a result, both the favourite and the underdog lines will also decrease.
Elimination brackets create considerably more randomness. A bad veto, a big round, or a momentum change could be an outcome for a series. Over a period of time, skill levels equilibrate, but variance is heavily concentrated during the playoffs.
The table below illustrates some of the differences in structure.
Factor
Regular Season
Playoffs
Sample size
Large
Limited
Recovery time
Multiple matches
Immediate elimination risk
Opponent prep
Broad
Targeted
Psychological pressure
Moderate
High
Variance impact
Distributed
Concentrated
Esports betting, as offered today, is primarily focused on live markets. The odds change throughout an event based on the action taking place right before your eyes as you watch the match unfold. As bettors react to a strong team being down early in a round, they flood the market with bets as they try to quickly reposition their bets.
Why does this trend persists
Because favorites have consistently had disappointing outcomes during playoff games because of their predictability when they have dominated, because of the high degree of visibility experienced by all teams, and because the betting markets tend to inflate value for teams based mostly on branding. This trend persists principally because of public bias.
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