One of the most intriguing games on the NFL schedule this weekend is the New England Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in all of football. They come in 5-0 and with one of the most exciting quarterbacks in all of football. The Patriots defense has been playing well the last two weeks, but Mahomes showed no signs of slowing down last week against one of the best defenses in football in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Will the Patriots defense cause resistance against one of the leagues up and coming quarterbacks or will the game prove to be a shootout?
Vegas has this over-under at 59.5 heading into Sunday which means they think this will be a shootout. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady can both sling it around the field and both the Patriots and Chiefs defenses have proven to be below average at best.
The Patriots, in their last two games, have given up just 31 points. The Patriots are 3-0 at home this season and giving up 17 points per contest at home. They have yet to play a team with Kansas City’s firepower, but have proven to be much better at home.
On the road, the Patriots are 0-2. They are giving up 28.5 points per game on the road and one of those games was to Matt Stafford and the now 2-3 lions. The Patriots have forced three turnovers on the road while getting seven of them in their three games at home. The Patriots defense benefits from the noise behind them. They have played better at home and that has resulted in a much better Patriots team.
The Chiefs defense has arguably been the worst in football. They have given up 129 points in just five games this season. They are +46 in point differential regardless of all the points given up. The 129 point total allowed in five games comes out to just a little under 26 points per game for opposing offenses. The Patriots have put up 27, 38 and 38 respectively at home during their three games. The Chiefs in their three road games are giving up over 29 points (29.3). This game has the makings of a high scoring affair and the statistics back it up.
Two offenses clicking:
The statistics for Patrick Mahomes speak for themselves. Through three weeks he was tied for the most touchdowns thrown in NFL history. Through five weeks he sits at 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has lost just one fumble and has run for 66 yards and two additional touchdowns. Mahomes is best when he’s improvising. What that means is he is at his best when defenses are scrambling and opposing defenses are forced to cover for longer than a standard NFL snap. His vision down the field creates big plays and he has done so thus far for the Kansas City Chiefs through five games.
Tom Brady has thrown 12 touchdowns and has thrown six interceptions. Three of his interceptions have been deflected easily by receivers into waiting defenders arms. Since Josh Gordon has joined the Patriots, they have scored their two highest point totals on the season. Gordon has shown a quick ability to figure out a complex offense. He is now catching passes thrown his way and freeing up Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman over the middle of the field. A team that once struggled to throw the ball downfield has now created a vertical attack with many different weapons.
Predicting a winner:
The Patriots are one of the best home teams in football over the last 10 or so seasons. They make it tough on visitors and continue to do to this day. Both teams will come out firing on Sunday night. The Patriots will slow Mahomes down a little bit but will prevail 35-24. The Patriots play well at home. They now look to make up for their slow September and get themselves back toward the top of the AFC. As Sunday comes into play, this game is big for the shake-up of the top of the AFC. The Patriots will continue to play well at home and the Kansas City defense will continue to struggle. Mahomes will still continue to play well but down the stretch, the better defense will be the factor in the second half.
Featured image from BigOnSports.com.
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