Week two for the quarterback position could be characterized as a return to normalcy. We saw the usual suspects at the top of the scoring charts like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Derek Carr. However, players like Trevor Siemian and Carson Wentz were able to perform on par with or better than those previously mentioned. Will any of these players will wind up on the quarterback edition of my week three DFS don’ts?
Drew Brees: FanDuel Price $8,400
Drew Brees is almost matchup proof. Last year he produced even against the most elite pass defenses like Denver and Seattle. However, he played those games at home in the confines of the Superdome. This Sunday, Brees plays at Carolina in a pivotal division game.
One year of data does not constitute a trend. But, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t consider it. Brees had a staunch difference in production against the Panthers in 2016 depending on where he played. I’m not saying this is exactly what will happen this year, but Brees is not playing with the same team.
Brees will play against the fifth ranked defense in terms of DVOA. You can read more about DOVA here, but it’s a stat that evaluates how good a team or player is relative to the NFL average. Currently, the Panthers are 42 percent better than the average NFL defense, and is ranked by Football Outsiders as the second best defense.
Apart from playing on the road against a great defense, Brees will be less equipped to produce than in his past matchups. Why’s that? Well, last year he had Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead at his disposal. This Sunday, he’ll only have Michael Thomas. He’ll also enter the game with one of the least efficient running attacks in the NFL. They currently rank 26th in total rushing and only have 38 rushing attempts in two games.
As much as it pains me to say, I’m not willing to pay $8,400 for Drew Brees given this week’s matchup. Let’s hope his placement on my week three DFS don’ts will be his only time this season.
Russell Wilson: FanDuel Price $7,800
I feel so bad for Russell Wilson. His franchise is failing him the same way the Colts are failing Andrew Luck. They continue to devote resources away from their offensive line, and now they are paying for it. Seattle is currently tied for 20th in sacks allowed.
This offensive line is so incompetent that they allowed the 49ers to stay competitive in last Sunday’s game. Sadly, I don’t think the Seahawks offense will be able to sustain drives and give their defense ample time to recover between drives.
They will inevitably have multiple three and outs, and that will force the Seattle defense to get pounded by DeMarco Murray or Derrick Henry. This will force the offense to abandon the run, and force Wilson to continue to run for his life.
I hope the Seahawks find a way to correct their pitiful offensive line play. I love stacking Wilson with Doug Baldwin in my DFS lineups. But until further notice, I can’t take that chance. Wilson and company are firmly on my week three DFS don’ts.
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