Week six looks to be straightforward when it comes to the running back position. None of the top tier players have unfavorable matchups and most are fairly priced. So, the running back edition of week six DFS don’ts will focus on lower priced running backs who we have previously relied on.
Carlos Hyde: FanDuel Price $6,700
Like most DFS players, we were left in utter dismay looking at Carlos Hyde’s final stat line. Hyde was in a favorable matchup with a favorable projected game flow, and he still came up small. Reportedly, Kyle Shanahan laughingly claimed the “hot hand” approach when it came to Hyde’s snap count. The hot hand only works when you have to equally talented players…Anyone can see that Carlos Hyde is vastly more talented than Matt Breida.
Last week’s debacle aside, Hyde’s matchup against the Washington Redskins is one of the worst of the weekend. Washington has quietly assembled one of the leagues best front sevens, regardless of scheme. Currently, the Redskins are allowing 88.8 rushing yards per game on average. That includes games versus two of the top four rushing leaders, Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley. Conversely, the 49ers are 19th in terms of rushing yards per game and are double digit underdogs this weekend.
The game flow will likely dictate a lot of throwing from Brian Hoyer. If that’s the case, we could see much more Matt Breida than we’d like. I always hesitate to start a running back who is more than a six point underdog, especially on the road. There are too many arrows pointing out of Hyde’s favor, as he’s on my week six DFS don’ts.
Ameer Abdullah: FanDuel Price $6,400
In all fairness, Ameer Abdullah is having a good season. He’s staying healthy and is proving that he can shoulder a substantial workload. The only problem is, the Lions are severely limiting his upside with Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner.
Abdullah is known as a between the 20’s type of running back. He gets to play on first and second down and is the dominant ball carrier in terms of carries. However, on third down, or in games where the Lions are trailing, Theo Riddick cuts into Abdullah’s playing time. Also, Zach Zenner will vulture goal line opportunities from Abdullah, as we saw last week versus Carolina.
This weekend’s matchup versus the Saints does not bode well for Abdullah. The Saints in New Orleans are always a threat to score thirty points. If the Saints jump out to an early lead, Riddick will start to see more snaps. Also, the Saints are giving up nine catches per game to the running back position. I’d say that both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are safer plays than Abdullah this week because of game flow, and role.
Elijah McGuire: FanDuel Price $5,700
Do I really need to explain? The New England Patriots have a different approach to offense than most teams. New England and Tom Brady are notorious for throwing the ball when they are double digit favorites. The Patriots hardly ever choose to sit on a lead and revert to running the clock out.
I understand New England’s defense is bad, and McGuire will likely be the only back in this offense, but the Jets offense cannot keep pace when it comes to scoring. Josh McCown will have to resort to throwing the football in the second half or late second quarter.
McGuire is in a similar situation to Carlos Hyde, I cannot in good conscience play a running back who is a double digit underdog. I like my running backs on the favored teams, obviously, so they will get fourth quarter carries with a lead. McGuire joins Carlos Hyde and Ameer Abdullah on my week six DFS don’ts.
Featured Image Courtesy of Bleacher Report
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