The hardest position to play in sports is surprisingly one of the easiest positions to pick in DFS. Sure, you could pay up for Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and lock in 20 points. Or, you could go with cheaper options like a Philip Rivers or Jameis Winston and distribute that salary elsewhere. Let’s examine who you should leave off your lineup in our quarterback addition of week one DFS Dont’s.
Yes, you’re about to read another piece about Ben Roethlisberger’s home/road splits. It’s real people, this trend dates all the way back to the 2014 season.
As you can see, his regression has been incremental over time. Each year the dropoff gets more disparaging and therefore cannot be discounted. Now, do not take these stats as gospel. Roethlisberger could easily torch the Browns this weekend, but he won’t be doing it on my roster.
The large spread in favor of Pittsburgh is a great indicator of running back production. Meaning, if you choose to roster him, Roethlisberger may only produce for 2.5 or three quarters if they blow out the Browns. I don’t know about you, but I’m not playing the third-most expensive quarterback on the main slate who has a history of mediocre play on the road.
Apart from his road issues, Roethlisberger is perennially one of the highest injury risks at his position. He routinely misses games at this stage of his career. I’m not saying don’t ever play him on the road, but don’t play him at his current price. If you really want to pay up at quarterback, take Aaron Rodgers for $100 more, or, Russell Wilson for $200 less. Like most players, Roethlisberger’s price and circumstances land him on my week one DFS Dont’s.
If you’ve been reading this series regularly, you know I hate the Lions this week. It’s more about their matchup than the individual player. I generally like Stafford. He plays on a team with no discernible run game and has above average receivers. However, the Arizona Cardinals defense is not one to take lightly.
I don’t like to put too much stock in what a team or unit did last year. But, when that unit returns almost their entire starting unit, I do. Here’s what I don’t like, the Cardinals were incredibly stingy in yards allowed. Detroit uses their pass game to run the ball. Stafford throws short, precise passes as a substitute for a 3-yard run. Obviously, that will limit the amount of sack opportunities for this defense. Conversely, if they refuse to stretch the field, it won’t matter if they record sacks. They’ll simply make the Lions punt after three 3-yard passes.
Looking beyond Stafford, where do the Lions have an offensive advantage? Patrick Peterson vs. Marvin Jones, I’ll take Peterson. Tyrann Matheiu vs. Golden Tate in the slot, I’ll take Mathieu. Deone Buchanon vs. Eric Ebron, give me Buchanon. Maybe they have an edge with Theo Riddick out of the backfield, but, that means short precise passes. They won’t be able to stretch the field. Thus, Stafford joins Roethlisberger on my week one DFS Dont’s.
Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.
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