Earlier this week, I hinted at a philosophy change in how I’m approaching lineups this year. It started with the kicker and defense positions, and now it has shifted to the wide receiver position.
This week, my lineup construction is focusing on mid-priced wide receivers. Let’s dive into which players we need to fade in order to cash this week in the wide receiver edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.
It pains me to do this because T.Y. won me a lot of money last weekend, but he’s almost unplayable in my eyes. That may be a strong assertion, but let’s really examine his performance last weekend. Hilton was targeted eight times. That’s good. He converted nine of those targets into five catches. That’s a 63 percent catch rate, which is not so good.
He started off hot with a 45 yard touchdown catch. Big plays are something he’s known for, so that’s not unusual. So on his other four catches, he averaged 32.5 yards per catch. This includes a play in which he was not touched down by a defender so he was able to recover and run into the end zone. 32.5 yards per catch is absolutely unsustainable, especially, when examining his matchup this week.
Hilton will face the Steelers at home this Sunday. This defensive unit is second only to Jacksonville in terms of pass defense. This is a combination of their pass rush and improved play in the secondary. There is no way the Colts will be able to fend off this Steelers pass rush long enough for Hilton to get open down the field.
He of course has the ability to make a big play, but it hasn’t come against a single top 15 pass defense. Hilton in my mind is the easiest fade of the week at the wide receiver position.
Can Stefon Diggs overcome a season of inconsistencies and injuries and produce on Sunday against Josh Norman and the Redskins? (Photo from ESPN.com)
This season has been a series of highs and lows for Stefon Diggs and this entire Vikings team. Diggs started off great in their win against the Saints and followed that up with a single-digit performance against Pittsburgh in Case Keenum’s first start.
Since Week 2, Diggs has one game above 30 points, one game above 10 points, and two games below five points. Sprinkle in a few missed games with an injury, and this paints a picture of an incredibly inconsistent season.
Diggs and the Vikings will travel to Washington to play a depleted Redskins team. He will likely see Josh Norman for the majority of the afternoon.
This season, Norman has not shadowed an opposing wide receiver. However, he will see a lot of Diggs at the left corner position. Norman is surrendering a catch on 47 percent of the times he is targeted. This should be a great matchup for the viewers, but one we should consider fading.
The last reason you should consider fading Diggs is the fact that Adam Thielen is being targeted more by Keenum. Given Digg’s health issues, the last two games the two receivers have played together were against Chicago in Week 5 and Cleveland in Week 8. In those two games, Thielen was targeted a total of eight more times than Diggs.
Since they are both the same price, the choice between them depends on your contests. If you’re playing a cash game, Thielen is your player. If you’re a tournament player, use Diggs for his upside.
At this point, we know exactly who DeSean Jackson is. In seasonal fantasy, you play him every week as a fringe wide receiver or flex and deal with the down games, because when Jackson hits it’s great.
However, DFS is a different story. I only consider Jackson when I know exactly which corner he will face, and if that corner has a tendency to give up big plays. That’s why he was a great option against the Cardinals in Week 6 because he was matching up with Justin Bethel.
Sadly, his matchup and quarterback make Jackson a shoe-in for the Week 10 DFS don’ts list. Jackson will likely be facing Morris Claiborne. Since leaving Dallas, Claiborne is playing incredibly well, and the Jets are deploying him in shadow coverage. Here is a record of Claiborne’s performance so far when shadowing a wide receiver according to Pro Football Focus.
There are some impressive names on this list that he’s covered. Claiborne is allowing a 56 percent catch rate. But, he’s only being targeted on 15 percent of routes ran against him. Jackson could overcome this tough matchup and score a long touchdown, but I like plenty of more reliable players in his price range.
Featured Image from Sports Bank
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