We are only hours away from the start of the NFL season. While our anticipation is building, we can’t relax yet. I announced in a special edition of the Suck My DFS Podcast that I will be writing an article that will cover as much relevant fantasy news available to me. I will also be including my final lineups and explanations of how I arrived at them. This information will be continuously updated until the 1:00 PM EST kickoffs.
Last Updated: 9/9 12:59 PM EST
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami – OUT
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina – Will Play
Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland – Will Play
Brent Grimes, CB, Tampa Bay – OUT
Earl Thomas, S, Seattle – Will Play
Joey Bosa, DE, Los Angeles – OUT
Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis – OUT
Anthony Castonzo, LT, Indianapolis – OUT
Austin Seferian Jenkins, TE, Jacksonville – Will Play
Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh – OUT
Sony Michel, RB, New England – OUT
Will Fuller, WR, Houston – OUT
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Arizona – Questionable
Xavier Rhodes, CB, Minnesota – Will Play
Keke Coute, WR, Houston – OUT
Cameron Meredith, WR, New Orleans – Inactive
Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay – Inactive
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore – Active
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baltimore – Active
Antonio Gates, TE, Los Angeles – Questionable
Pat Elflein, C, Minnesota – Inactive
Olivier Vernon, LB, New York (Giants) – Inactive
Kalen Ballage, RB, Miami – Inactive
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina – Inactive
Last Updated: 9/9 12:59 PM EST
There are two major concerns. According to NFL Weather, the game most impacted by weather will be the Steelers at the Browns. As of Saturday evening, there is expected to be heavy rain and 18 MPH winds.
UPDATE: Heavy rain has been downgraded to light rain.
UPDATE: Light rain has been upgraded to heavy rain again and increased winds to 19 MPH.
UPDATE: Heavy rain has been downgraded to light rain, and decreased winds to 13 MPH.
The Bills at the Ravens is the only other game that will possibly be affected. The winds are not as much of a factor, but rain will be expected throughout the game.
UPDATE: The forecast has not changed much. Light rain is still expected with 14 MPH winds.
UPDATE: Wind speeds are expected to be 12 MPH.
Last Updated: 9/9 12:59 PM EST
David Johnson and the Cardinals have agreed to a three year extension for $39 million. The contract includes $30 million in guarantees and Johnson can earn up to $45 million total.
The Saints have activated Johnathan Williams for today’s game against the Tampa Bay, making him the third active running back on the roster.
Jordan Wilkins is expected to start in place of Marlon Mack for the Indianapolis Colts today.
It has been reported by Chris Mortenson of ESPN that the Browns plan to use Josh Gordon for around 20 plays in today’s game against the Steelers.
Rotowire is reporting that former Raiders wide receiver Martavis Bryant could be facing another year-long suspension.
Last Updated: 9/9 12:59 PM EST
Quarterbacks:
Drew Brees and Andy Dalton
I said on the podcast that Philip Rivers was my number cash game quarterback. I have since pivoted. The Saints are going to dismantle the Buccaneers, and with only one other active running back on the roster, it’s likely that Saints limit Kamara’s workload by increasing Drew Brees’ pass attempts.
Once the thought of Brees as my cash quarterback crossed my mind, I dug into Rivers’ production versus the Chiefs, and the results are not good. In his two matchups against the below average Chiefs defense, Rivers threw the ball a total of 76 times for a total of 16.56 FanDuel points. No, I did not misspeak. Even with how bad Chiefs will be this year, I can’t risk a less than 16 point game from my cash game quarterback.
As for my split between Brees and Dalton, they are each on 21 of my 42 50/50 lineups. Brees is my quarterback for the remaining contests, which consist of eight single-entry contests between 100 and 1,176 people.
Running Backs:
Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Alex Collins, and James Conner
My thoughts from Thursday are almost the same. Even though I mentioned him as a player I would like during our game by game examination, I did not list Derrick Henry as one of my three running backs to build around. However, I found myself playing a lineup with too much chalk. Yes, I have a lineup with Kamara, Collins, and Conner, but having some diversification among my running backs won out.
As a result, I present you, Derrick Henry. Even with Dion Lewis’ presence and the uncertainty with the new offense, Henry is cash worthy. The Miami Dolphins are, and will be, one of the league’s worst run defenses. In 2017, the Dolphins had the fifth-worst total DVOA (defensive value over average), meaning, they gave up yards and points everywhere. While they weren’t one of the five worst defenses against the run in DVOA, this team lost Ndamukong Suh and allowed a preseason worst, 151.1 rushing yards per game. That number was 20 yards greater than the next worst defense against the run. To simply put, they have a systemic flaw when it comes to stopping the run because of their wide-9 set that is magnified by a lack of talent.
Wide Receivers:
Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs, Chris Hogan, Emmanuel Sanders, and Chris Godwin
A.J. Green has supplanted Keenan Allen as my number one cash wide receiver. Once Rivers was ruled out of cash consideration, including Green on as many lineups as possible was priority one. Three receivers that weren’t on my radar during the podcast were Michael Thomas, Stefon Diggs, and Emmanuel Sanders.
Full disclosure, Michael Thomas is not on any of my 42 50/50 lineups. However, my eight single-entry contests between 100 and 1,176 people all have a Drew Brees-Michael Thomas stack. Thomas made those eight lineups because I decided to fade Kamara and still wanted a share of the New Orleans game.
A.J. Green, Chris Hogan, and Chris Godwin were all options I was considering on the podcast and are still high on. Two players I have shares of that were not on my radar are Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders. Diggs jumped off the page as a second wide receiver because of his $7,400 price and because of his success versus zone coverage. The 49ers run an almost identical cover 3 zone to Seattle, and Diggs has proven to crush zone coverage. Emmanuel Sanders emerged as the best option for a high-end wide receiver three, or a low-end wide receiver two because he’s developed a good rapport with Case Keenum, and is in an advantageous matchup. The Seattle defense is pathetic, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise, attack them in the first few weeks before everyone catches on.
I have decided to fade the Keelan Cole chalk, something I originally said I would not do on the podcast. My thought process was that if I don’t roster Cole, my lineups won’t have as many studs at the top as the field, and I would not be able to overcome a good game by Cole if I left him off my lineups. Chris Godwin is now my number three wide receiver and I feel very confident with my lineups, even without Cole allowing me to pay up at other positions.
Tight Ends:
Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed
Rob Gronkowski needs no analysis. He’ll be one of the most popular tight ends for good reason. I have pivoted from Jack Doyle up to Jordan Reed. The extra $200 isn’t a huge deal. Doyle is a good play, but Eric Ebron’s presence as a jumbo flex wide receiver worries me. Reed is finally healthy and we need to take advantage of that while we can, especially since Alex Smith loves his tight end.
Defense/Special Teams:
Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins
The defense myself and Will said to play as a “free square” was the Ravens. Sadly, I cannot find the extra $100 to move up from Jacksonville without completely compromising the rest of my lineups. If the worst I can do is get one of the league’s most elite defenses in a matchup versus a below average offensive line, I’ll take the risk that the Ravens don’t go crazy and roll with the Jaguars. The Redskins were cheap defense I was pumping up on the podcast, and I’m still in on them.
Last Updated: 9/9 12:59 PM EST
The first two lineups are my 50/50 lineups. I will be playing 21 entries of each lineup, and eight single-entry contests between 100-1,176 people with the third lineup. I don’t foresee any changes to these lineups barring some devastating and unexpected injury news.
Featured Image Courtesy of Roto Street Journal
Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast here.
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