Since it has been almost two months since the NFL Draft has ended the football community is transitioning from draft coverage to prepping for Fantasy Football drafts. In the Fantasy Football world, the draft is a very important event because there is when fantasy team owners can discover positional players that can step into large roles on offense right away and get drafted or picked up off waivers at a premium value. However, it is also a time to recognize which players might be taking a step back because they are being replaced by a younger player who will have a large role with the team. Here are some of those players.
Coming into the 2020-21 NFL season Hayden Hurst was considered a sleeper and a breakout candidate. The former 2018 first-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens did not have a great start to his career. He was quickly jumped in the depth chart by third-round pick Mark Andrews was also drafted in 2018. Andrews’ breakout gave Baltimore the flexibility to trade Hurst to the Atlanta Falcons for a second-round pick (J.K. Dobbins). In Atlanta, Hurst became the teams starting tight end and third option in the passing game. He did not disappoint as he posted career highs with 56 receptions, 571 yards, and six touchdowns. The 149.1 PPR fantasy points (9.32 per game) Hurst put up last season ranked him the tenth highest scoring tight end last year and made him a starter in standard leagues.
After the Atlanta Falcons finished with the fourth-worst record in the league last season, they decided to take the top player available with their first-round selection. They believed that Florida Tight End Kyle Pitts was the best non-quarterback prospect in the draft and took him with the fourth overall pick. He is expected to have a major role on this offense immediately and being the team’s starting tight end.
Taking Pitts moves Hurst to second on the depth chart and will take a major cut out of his target share. Atlanta will likely run a lot of two-tight end sets next season to keep both Hurst and Pitts on the field as much as possible, but that doesn’t guarantee a huge role for Hurst in new head coach Arthur Smith’s offense. Even after trading Julio Jones, Hurst could likely be the fourth or fifth receiving option for their offense behind Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage, and Mike Davis who is a receiving threat out of the backfield. Atlanta is also expected to run the ball more this season now that they believe they have a veteran running back capable of being a difference-maker on offense.
Considering all of this Hurst shouldn’t be considered more than a TE2 to take a flier on late in drafts. Despite how shallow the tight end position is, there are definitely a lot better options that Hurst to start at tight end every week. The only circumstance that makes sense to prioritize Hurst in drafts is as a handcuff for Pitts in deeper leagues. If something were to happen to Pitts where he would miss time Hurst would become a very valuable option the waiver wire for someone needing a short-term fill-in at tight end.
Before Joe Burrow‘s injury, the Cincinnati Bengals passing game showed a lot of promise. Burrow finished with the third-most passing attempts per game (40.4). He also threw for 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in his ten games last season. The Bengals wide receiver core benefited largely by having Burrow in the building. 2020 second-round pick Tee Higgins led the team in receiving with 908 yards and six touchdowns on 67 receptions. Just behind Higgins was veteran slot receiver Tyler Boyd who finished the year with 841 yards and four touchdowns on a team-leading 79 receptions. Former Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green had a reduced role for the Bengals compared to past years finishing with 523 yards and two touchdowns on 47 receptions.
During the offseason, Green had left in free agency and signed with the Arizona Cardinals. That would have opened up more opportunities for Higgins and Boyd. However, with the fifth overall pick, the Cincinnati Bengals decided to pick the best player available LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase over their biggest need on the offensive line. It would be hard to imagine Cincinnati not making a talent like Chase a focal point of their offense the way they did when they took A.J. Green in the first round in 2011.
So the question becomes out of both Boyd and Higgins who becomes the team’s WR2. History has shown us that it is extremely difficult for an offense to have consistent fantasy production out of three wide receivers unless they put up historic numbers. The Chase selection could make it difficult to trust Boyd or Higgins in fantasy to put up the production they put up last season. One is likely to regress to a dropable level similar to what happened to Michael Gallup after the Dallas Cowboys took CeeDee Lamb in the first round last year. Even though Burrow will be healthy and made be able to provide two of the team’s receivers with usable fantasy production, it should also be considered that Joe Mixon will also be returning to the team and the team may elect to run the ball a lot more than they had the previous year.
There are a lot of question marks about what the Cincinnati Bengals offense will look like with a healthy Joe Burrow under center for 16 games especially with all the playmakers around him. Even though their offense has a high potential, it is safe to say that its two leading receivers from a season ago Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd shouldn’t be considered more than WR3s in fantasy drafts. They are borderline flexes in standard leagues until there is more clarification on their roles on offense.
If a fantasy team could land either Higgins or Boyd as their WR4 that would be prime value because they would have the upside to be potentially inserted into their lineup every week, but if they do not reach their potential they could potentially have three better options at the position on their roster and could feel better about parting with them.
The Miami Dolphins shocked the world last season going 10-6 and almost making the playoffs. But from a fantasy standpoint, their pass-catchers met their preseason expectations. After a breakout season in 2019-20, DeVante Parker regressed from a production standpoint. Parker only had 793 yards and four touchdowns on 63 receptions. His 11.9 PPR points per game made him the 42nd ranked receiver in the league last season.
The Dolphins’ number two receiver this season-ending up being tight end Mike Gesicki. In his third season in the league, Gesicki had career highs with 703 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 53 receptions. Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has not shown all of why the Dolphins made him the fifth overall pick in 2020. Instead, the Dolphins offense was more conservative during Tagovailoa’s rookie year and not very explosive. So in order to make Tagovailoa more comfortable, the Dolphins decided to add to their receiving core this offseason.
During the 2021 NFL Draft, the Dolphins made a blockbuster deal trading the 3rd overall pick (acquired from the Houston Texans in the Laremy Tunsil trade) to the San Fransisco 49ers for the 12th overall pick, 2022 First Round pick, 2023 First Round pick. Then Miami packaged the 12th pick with their 2022 First Round pick to trade for the Philadelphia Eagles first-round pick which was 6th overall. After more speculation about a potential move, Miami decided to stay put and took Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle with their first selection in the first round. But Waddle wasn’t the only major receiver the Dolphins added this offseason, they also signed former Houston Texans receiver Will Fuller to a one-year $10.6 million deal.
The additions of Waddle and Fuller create a lot of questions on how this offense will look in 2021. Even with three former first-round picks at wide receiver, the Dolphins may not play in three-receiver sets very often. The Dolphins are a run-first team and took Boston College tight end Hunter Long in the third round who will likely have a role for the offense his rookie year and will be the Dolphins second tight end in two-tight end sets.
The receiver with the highest value in Miami is Fuller. Even if Fuller is not the team’s number one receiver next season he has shown throughout his career that he is capable of getting hot and having one or two games a year where he puts up outstanding fantasy numbers. In standard PPR leagues, Fuller should be taken as a weak WR3 or rock-solid WR4. It would be hard to trust Fuller as a weekly starting flex without consistent production from him first. That may take a while considering Fuller still has to finish his suspension from last season and will sit out Week 1 against the New England Patriots.
Parker is borderline undraftable in standard leagues when considering the depth of talented wide receivers that are available and could be relied upon more. Even though Miami gave Parker a 4 year $40 million extension last offseason, he may be their third or fourth leading receiver at the end of the season.
Similar to the previous two, it is hard to trust Gesicki to get consistent production as well with all the mouths to feed on this offense. He has the upside to still be a top-15 tight end but is better left on waiver wires until his role on offense becomes more clear.
What kills the value of all the Dolphins pass catchers are the fact that the Dolphins are a run-first team that won their games off managing the clock through running the ball, playing great defense, and limiting turnovers on offense. The only way that the Dolphins could have two or more reliable fantasy pass catchers this season is if they open the playbook to Tua Tagovailoa and allow him to throw the ball all over the field and transition from a game manager to gunslinging playmaker.
Giants wide receiver may have fallen from number one to number four on the Giants wide receiver depth chart. (Courtesy of Danielle Parhizkaran USA Today Sports.)
For the second season in a row, the New York Giants offense was a mess for multiple reasons but the largest was because of injuries. Wide receiver Sterling Shepards was one of the many Giants who missed time due to injury last season. Shepard missed four games last season due to a toe injury. But when he was on the field last year he was a solid number one receiver for the Giants and had enough consistent production to be inserted into fantasy lineups every week.
Shepard only had 656 yards and three touchdowns on 66 receptions last season but averaged 13.5 PPR points per week when he played. If he would have played all 16 games and maintained that average he would have finished as a WR3 and starting flex as the 23rd ranked wide receiver between CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool.
This offseason the New York Giants made multiple big splash signings. Their largest may be former Detriot Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay. New York signed Golladay to be their true number one receiver and paid him as such as well giving him a 4 year $72 million deal. Golladay is coming off of a season where he was plagued with a hamstring and hip injury. He was limited to five games last season and only had 20 receptions for 338 yards and two touchdowns. But had shown during the previous two seasons he is capable of being a number one receiver. He had 1,063 yards and five touchdowns off 70 catches in 2018-19. Then in 2019-20 Golladay broke out for a career-high 1,190 yards and league-leading 11 touchdowns off 65 catches. Golladay’s addition really shouldn’t have affected Shepard’s role or dropped his value too much.
The move that had the biggest impact on Shepards’ value was the Giants taking Flordia wide receiver Kadarius Toney in the first round of this past draft. After the Philadelphia Eagles jumped them and took Alabama wide receiver Devonta Smith, the Giants made a deal with the Chicago Bears moving from 11th to 20th overall. The Giants took the next best receiver on their board with the 20th pick which was Toney. His addition to the team affects Shepard more than any other Giants receiver because he should primarily play in the slot which has been where Shepard has lined up since being drafted. Toney is not a traditional wide receiver, he is at his best when he is given the ball behind the line of scrimmage on screen passes and end-arounds. He is a gadget player comparable to former Flordia wide receiver Percy Harvin or 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
Since the wide receiver position is so deep it is fair to take Shepard off of draft boards in standard leagues this upcoming season. The Giants have a lot of mouths to feed besides Shepard including Golladay, Toney, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, and Saquon Barkley. It’s hard to imagine a Daniel Jones-led offense being able to sustain fantasy value from skill players not named Kenny Golladay or Saquon Barkley.
One of the stories that defined the Baltimore Ravens offseason is how multiple star wide receivers refused to sign with them. Baltimore inquired about former Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay but did not want to pay his price tag. Then JuJu Smith-Schuster chose to resign with Pittsburgh Steelers for just one year $8 million versus signing with the Ravens for a one-year $9 million deal with another $4 million in incentives according to NFL Network’s Taylor Bisciotti. Later in the offseason, the Ravens offered T.Y. Hilton “a lot of money” and a multi-year deal, but Hilton opted to resign with the Colts on a one-year $10 million deal instead.
Baltimore did land former Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins on a one-year $5 million deal but felt the need to add another playmaker to go along with 2019 first-round pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Over the last two seasons, Brown has been the Ravens’ number one wide receiver. This past season Brown had boosted his stats from his rookie season posting 58 receptions for 769 yards and eight touchdowns. For the first ten weeks of the season, Brown was extremely inconsistent and couldn’t be trusted in fantasy lineups in standard leagues averaging 8.72 PPR points per game. During that stretch, he was the WR54. But for the last six weeks of the regular season, Brown put up double-digit PPR points every week. He averaged 15.97 PPR points per game and was the WR16 during that time.
During the first round of this past draft, the Ravens decided to use their first selection on Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman. He is capable of lining up both inside and outside, but in his first season he figures to play in the slot for the most part, while Watkins and Brown lineup on the outside.
The Ravens selecting Bateman largely affects Browns’ fantasy value because he is no longer the de facto number one wide receiver. The addition of Watkins gave Baltimore a reliable number two receiver opposite Brown, but Bateman’s addition means that Brown could be supplanted as the number one receiver for this offense and could potentially just become the big-play deep threat receiver. This is possible considering that Lamar Jackson is a lot more comfortable throwing to 2019 Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews and slot receivers over the middle than throwing it to outside receivers.
Bateman could see the WR1 targets making Brown the number two wide receiver and possibly the third receiving threat on the team behind Andrews. This wouldn’t mean a major drop in fantasy value if the Ravens had a very pass-heavy offense. But the Ravens have run the ball more than any other team in the NFL over the last couple of seasons. Part of the reason why Smith-Schuster and Hilton didn’t sign with the Ravens was because of how much they prioritize the run.
Baltimore averaged 34.7 rushing attempts and 191.9 rushing yards per game which led the NFL. The next highest total for each category was by the Tennessee Titans who averaged 32.6 rushing attempts and 168.1 rushing yards per game. To put into perspective how often Baltimore ran the ball in comparison with the teams around the NFL the average rushing attempts per game among all 32 teams was 26.1 and rushing yards was 118.9 yards per game.
So factoring in how run-heavy Greg Roman’s offense is in Baltimore and the fact that Brown would have to share targets with Andrews, Bateman, Watkins, and all the other young receivers on their roster he can’t be trusted more than a WR5 in fantasy lineups. It would be hard to trust pass catcher on the Baltimore Ravens not named Mark Andrews on a week-to-week basis.
There is uncertainty on what Jamison Crowder’s role for the New York Jets will be this season. (Courtesy of AP Photo/Steven Ryan)
The only fantasy-relevant player on the New York Jets last season was slot receiver Jamison Crowder. Despite how terrible the Jets offense was as a whole, Crowder was a PPR machine. During his first four games, he averaged 11.5 targets per game. He finished the season with 59 catches for 699 yards and six touchdowns in twelve games. Those are great numbers considering he dealt with injuries and inconsistent quarterback play all season. Crowder averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game which was the 25th highest average among wide receivers between Antonio Brown and Marvin Jones Jr.
The New York Jets made major changes to their offense from a season ago. They hired new head coach Robert Saleh who brought former San Fransisco 49ers passing-game coordinator Mike LaFleur in to be his offensive coordinator. They also traded Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers and drafted BYU quarterback Zach Wilson to be the teams starting quarterback. On top of all of that, the Jets have added multiple new pass-catchers throughout the offseason including former Tennesee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis and former Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Keelan Cole.
After bringing in Davis and Cole the Jets wide receiver depth chart figured to be Davis lining up opposite of 2020 second-round pick Denzel Mims on the outside, Crowder would remain in the slot, and Cole would be the teams’ fourth receiver who could lineup all over the field but primarily relieve Crowder in the slot. But that changed during the second round of this past draft.
New York drafted Ole Miss wide receiver Elijah Moore with the 34th overall pick in the second round. After the signings, the Jets made this offseason wide receiver was not a major need. But the Jets were lacking a true deep threat and didn’t have a clear number one receiver. It is unclear whether Moore will emerge as the team’s number one wide receiver, but he could definitely be their deep threat.
The Jets receiver room got very crowded this offseason. That is a problem for a receiver like Crowder because his value came from the high volume of targets he would receive. On top of that, Moore is expected to begin his career lining up in the slot for New York. Unless the Jets decide to make four-receiver sets a regular formation on offense, Crowder likely will not be lining up on the field very often with Moore. The Jets could also line Moore up outside and take away snaps from Mims in order to have him and Crowder be on the field at the same time. New York did invest a high draft pick in Moore so they will prioritize getting him on the field.
But if the Jets decide to keep Moore in the slot for his first season they may not have Crowder as one of their primary wide receivers. Wilson and Moore have already begun building chemistry. They worked out together before rookie minicamp even started. Moore has also been extremely impressive during training camp. This may be what led to Jamison Crowder’s pay cut. The team wanted to cut 50% of his $10 million. It has not been released how much of a cut Crowder took to remain on the team, but if his salary was cut in half he would be making less than free-agent addition Keelan Cole will make this season.
All of these signs are pointing to the idea that Crowder is no longer viewed as an essential piece to this offense. His contract is up next season so the Jets will likely move on from him and focus on the receivers that will be in the building for the next couple of years. From a fantasy standpoint, it would be extremely hard to trust Jamison Crowder in standard formats. It is uncertain how much better the Jets’ offense could be with all of their additions and coaching changes. They still may not be able to produce consistent fantasy value from multiple receivers. Also, Crowder will not be seeing the volume he needed to be fantasy-relevant. He should be left on the waiver wire to begin the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ tight end Eric Ebron finished as a top-15 tight end in both points and average points per game last season. Between Weeks 7-14 Ebron was actually the fourth-highest scoring tight end in the league despite having to fight for targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and 2020 second-round pick Chase Claypool.
This year may be harder to rely on Ebron in deeper league formats for multiple reasons. For starters, Ben Roethlisberger is going to be 39 years old this season and it was evident last year that he may not be able to carry an offense every week throughout a 17 games season. So the Steelers are expected to be a run-heavy team behind 2021 first-round pick Alabama running back Najee Harris. Then in the following round, Pittsburgh took Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth. It is likely that Ebron and Freirmuth will fight for reps this season to avoid having to take one of their three dynamic receivers off of the field. It would be hard to trust Ebron in any fantasy league this season with so many mouths to feed in a run-heavy offense in Pittsburgh.
Does the Arizona Cardinals view Christian Kirk as their long-term secondary wide receiver? (Courtesy of Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
The Arizona Cardinals have drafted six wide receivers since 2017. For the fourth season in a row, the Arizona Cardinals have invested a Day 2 selection in a wide receiver. This is the third year in a row their second-round pick was used on a wide receiver. Christian Kirk was taken by the Cardinals in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He was supposed to be the Cardinals’ number two receiver that possibly developed into the number one target for former UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen. Three years later Kirk is still the team’s number two receiver but instead of being second fiddle to Larry Fitzgerald, he is second to DeAndre Hopkin, and instead of catching passes from Rosen, he has been catching passes from Kyler Murray the past two seasons.
Following Kirk, the Cardinals selected Andy Isabella in the second round in 2019. Then the following season traded running back David Johnson and their second-round pick for DeAndre Hopkins. This past offseason the Cardinals selected Purdue wide receiver Rondale Moore in the second round. Moore is a dynamic player who is expected to fill the void the Cardinals believed Isabella could when they drafted him. But he could very well lap Christian Kirk to become Murray’s second option in the passing game.
No matter who is the Cardinals’ second-leading receiver it is unlikely that player will be fantasy relevant in standard leagues. Even in deeper leagues, it would be hard to trust Kirk as a flex unless Kyler Murray has an MVP caliber season and Kirk establishes himself as the team’s second-best receiver. But until then it is safe to stay away from all Cardinals wide receivers not named DeAndre Hopkins unless there is more clarity on who will be seeing consistent targets.
If Arizona keeps drafting wide receivers it is a sign that they are not happy with their production at the position and are trying to move past their current number two receiver who is Kirk.
One of the largest talking points in all of sports this offseason was that Aaron Rodgers simply needs more help to get over the hump and the Packers did not give it to him last offseason. Despite not drafting players who can contribute to their current roster the Packers still managed to return to the NFC Championship this season. In fantasy, the Packers’ wide receivers weren’t as bad as previously advertised. Davante Adams finished as the highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy despite only playing in 14 games. While Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a few weeks with great fantasy production but overall both averaged around 9 PPR fantasy points a game.
Green Bay finally added another receiver early in the draft taking Amari Rodgers in the third round of this past draft. Rodgers has a clear shot of becoming Green Bay’s clear number two receiver. That means that what little fantasy value both Lazard and Valdes-Scantling had are seemingly gone. Both were fantasy-relevant because they had an MVP caliber quarterback in Aaron Rodgers throwing them the football every week. But if Amari Rodgers becomes the team’s number two wide receiver Lazard becomes a possession slot receiver who will not be seeing a large percentage of targets and Valdes-Scantling is just a deep threat who will see two to three targets a game deep down the field.
Another factor to consider that may drop these players completely off the fantasy radar is if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play for Green Bay this season. Last season’s MVP is currently holding out from team activities and would like to be traded elsewhere. This leaves 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love as the Packers starting quarterback. There is no knowing what to expect from Green Bay if Love starts the season under center. They may commit to the run until Love can carry the offense. They have two dynamic running backs in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to fall back on until Love is comfortable. If that happens Davante Adams becomes a low-end WR1, Amari Rodgers becomes undraftable in standard leagues, and Lazard & Valdes-Scantling completely fall off the fantasy radar.
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