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Fantasy Points Against: Wide Receivers to Start and Sit Week 9

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

Cole Beasley

This is a weekly reminder that the Seahawks defense hemorrhages points to wide receivers. They have allowed the most FPA to wide receivers and have allowed 11 players to finish Top 24 at the position.

The numbers are astounding. So far, 18 wide receivers have seen 7+ targets against Seattle. 12 wide receivers have caught 8+ passes against Seattle. Eight wide receivers have had 100+ receiving yard games against Seattle. Seattle has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns on the season to seven total wide receivers.

This should be a Stefon Diggs feast game. Who the second valuable receiver will be is tougher to find. Cole Beasley has seen more targets and caught more touchdowns recently than John Brown. Beasley also fits the profile of a high target volume wide receiver.

Beasley is a fine flex play with big upside in PPR or 0.5 PPR formats.

Tim Patrick

The Denver Broncos have stumbled their way to 3-4 after losing Von Miller for an extended period of time and Courtland Sutton for the season. The offense showed an ability to rally in their comeback win over the Chargers last week. The standout performer in the receiving game has been Tim Patrick.

Tim Patrick (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Prior to his Week 7 injury, Patrick had double digit fantasy points in three straight games. He will face an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed the 5th most FPA to wide receivers. The Falcons have also allowed 11 Top 24 wide receiver performances. They have also given up 13 double digit fantasy performances to wide receivers.

Patrick is a strong start in Week 9 as a WR3 and a weak WR2. Jerry Jeudy is also worth a look as a low end Flex play.

SITS:

Corey Davis

In limited appearances, Corey Davis has averaged the 15th most fantasy points per game among wide receivers. He has caught three touchdowns and had 100+ receiving yards twice. Davis has been worth the wait for owners who stashed him during his injury.

In Week 9, Davis draws a Chicago Bears defense that has allowed the 3rd fewest FPA to wide receivers including no top 24 wide receiver performances. AJ Brown has been too good for Tennessee and may break that trend. But the Bears run deep at cornerback. Chicago’s second cornerback Jaylon Johnson is tied for 4th in the league in pass deflections.

As tempting as it may be to ride the hot hand with Davis, he belongs on benches in just about every format.

DJ Moore

Based on how the Kansas City Chiefs defense has operated, this could be a week to sit Robby Anderson and start DJ Moore but there is some unpredictability to that. It seems certain that one of these receivers has a down week.

DJ Moore (Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)

Kansas City has allowed the 4th fewest FPA to wide receivers overall but they have allowed six Top 24 wide receiver performances. To break the tie on who is the odd man out in Carolina, chase the target volume. Anderson has seen more targets than Moore in five out of eight games including five of the last six.

Moore is startable as a flex or WR3 since Carolina may have to pass late if they are trailing. In leagues that start only two receivers and a flex, looking elsewhere at the flex position may be prudent.

Featured Image courtesy of Kevin C Cox / Getty Images

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