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Fantasy Points Against: Wide Receivers to Start and Sit Week 7

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk’s Monday night performance wasn’t quite a breakout since he only had two receptions and both were touchdowns. Kirk has a much higher passer rating when targeted than Larry Fitzgerald making him the second best option for Kyler Murray.

The Seahawks defense has been horrendous this season allowing the most FPA to wide receivers with almost 50 points per game. They have allowed eight Top 24 wide receivers in only five games.

DeAndre Hopkins is an obvious top start this week but there should be at least one other Cardinal receiver to strike gold. The Seahawks have allowed 11 receivers to eclipse 70 yards receiving and seven wideouts to go over 100 yards.

Kirk is the best bet to be that second great option in a game that has high shootout potential. He represents a comfortable WR3 and sneaky flex play with WR2 upside.

Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones (Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

The Detroit Lions get a great matchup in the Atlanta Falcons this week. Everyone on the Lions offense should have boosted opportunity.

Marvin Jones definitely has value as the wide receiver with the highest snap count in Detroit. Matthew Stafford has struggled when targeting Jones but Kenny Golladay may be in for a tougher time this week. AJ Terrell is back for Atlanta and held Adam Thielen to one catch for 35 yards. This should yield more targets for Jones.

The Falcons defense has allowed nine Top 24 wide receiver performances as a part of their 5th most FPA to wide receivers this season. Jones, like Kirk, is a WR3 who has big upside in a plus matchup.

SITS:

Robert Woods

The Bears-Rams game Monday night has major stinker potential. Both teams have winning records and fine defenses with offenses that have struggled to this point.

Rams wideouts get a tough draw against a Chicago defense that has yet to allow a Top 24 wide receiver performance. The Bears have allowed the 3rd fewest FPA to wide receivers this season.

Robert Woods has found the end zone in four of his six games while the Bears have only allowed one touchdown to wide receivers. This matchup has the 2nd lowest expected point total so that six point boost may be hard for Woods to snag.

Woods is likely a starter for many fantasy teams but his return might land closer to flex play with a low upside matchup. Start him with caution.

Brandin Cooks/Randall Cobb

Houston’s second and third wide receivers have each had their moments to show up for fantasy owners this season. In a matchup against Green Bay, opportunities will be limited for the two wideouts.

Brandin Cook (Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle)

This season, the Packers have allowed the 9th fewest FPA to wide receivers and only six touchdowns in five games. Adam Thielen is the only wide receiver to go over 100 yards receiving against Green Bay’s secondary this year.

The Texans passing attack has shown increased promise as of late. Unfortunately, they get Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in a bounce back week after a brutal loss to Tampa Bay. Both Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb are best suited riding pine for fantasy rosters.

 

Featured Image courtesy of Jennifer Stewart / Getty Images

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