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Fantasy Points Against: Wide Receivers to Start and Sit Week 12

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

Nelson Agholor

The Las Vegas Raiders lost ground in the division Sunday night against Kansas City, but are very much in the hunt for a wild card spot. They face a weak Falcons defense that has been featured many times in these articles.

Atlanta allows the 2nd most FPA to wide receivers this season. They have allowed 13 Top 24 finishes including four double-digit performances in their last two games.

Nelson Agholor has been up and down lately. In his last six performances, he has four games of 40+ yards and a touchdown and two games with fewer than 10 yards receiving. This week should be a great spot for Agholor who can be confidently started as a WR3 or flex.

Nelson Agholor (Benjamin Hager/Las Vegas Review Journal)

Travis Fulgham

Also a recurring feature of this article is the Seattle Seahawks defense. Last week, the Seahawks actually put up their best effort allowing fewer than 11 fantasy points to each receiver for the first time all year. It’s reasonable to assume that trend won’t last.

The Seahawks still allow the most FPA to wide receivers and have given up a league-high 15 Top 24 performances. No one receiver dominates the points against them either. Even with Jalen Reagor rising in Philadelphia, Travis Fulgham still stays heavily involved.

Fulgham only caught one pass for eight yards against Cleveland but he saw seven targets. With more healthy pass-catchers, fantasy owners may pause but ultimately should put Fulgham in their lineups.

SLEEPER:

Rashard Higgins

There aren’t too many “sit candidates” at the wide receiver position but there is a deep sleeper that is worth a look.

In six of their last seven games, the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed multiple wideouts to reach double-digit fantasy points. Only twice in that span, though, has a receiver reach 20 fantasy points.

With the Cleveland Browns on the docket, Jarvis Landry seems like the obvious WR1. Only one Browns wide receiver has been targeted at least three times in four consecutive games: Rashard Higgins.

Higgins is a deep, matchup-based sleeper. Deploy him as a longshot flex play.

SITS:

Brandon Aiyuk / Deebo Samuel

Brandon Aiyuk (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The last time the 49ers and Rams played, both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel caught touchdowns. Since then the Rams have only allowed three receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.

After a shaky defensive effort agains the Buccaneers, the Rams still allow the fewest FPA to wide receivers. They have only allowed four Top 24 finishes (including Samuel in Week 6).

Chances are, one of these receivers performs well enough to start. With both players just returning from a multiple-week hiatus it’s a toss up. Teams with a secure or high upside WR3 or flex should bench their 49ers wide receiver.

 

Featured Image courtesy of Joe Lamberti / Courier Post

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