Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
The Houston Texans can still scrape their way towards a playoff appearance. Since Romeo Crennel took over as interim head coach the team is 2-2. The Cleveland Browns present a winnable matchup for a Texans team trying to stay afloat.
The Browns defense has been vulnerable to wide receivers allowing the fifth most FPA to wideouts. The Browns have allowed nine top 12 wide receiver performances. More specifically, in six of their eight games the Browns have allowed multiple wide receivers to reach double digit fantasy points.
Will Fuller is the obvious start in the Houston offense but Brandin Cooks is a strong play too. He has seen at least nine targets in his last four games. Cooks is a high end WR3 and strong flex play this week.
Opportunities should be abundant for DeVante Parker in the short-term after the Miami Dolphins place Preston Williams on injured reserve. As the clear cut number one receiver, positive matchups will be very tempting for fantasy owners.
The Dolphins host the Denver Broncos who have allowed ten top 24 wide receivers this season. The Broncos conceded five touchdowns to wide receivers in the last two weeks as part of their eighth most FPA to wide receivers.
Parker hasn’t had many standout performances this season. This week he is a low-end WR2 and strong flex play.
Jake Luton made his NFL debut yesterday and his shining play came on career throw number two: a 73-yard touchdown to DJ Chark. That play certainly fluffed Chark’s overall stat line but he had six catchers for 73 yards otherwise.
In Week 10, the Jaguars draw the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have allowed the sixth fewest FPA to wide receivers and only two top 24 wide receiver performances.
The big point of concern hinges on injury news. If Chark draws Jaire Alexander then he is definitely a sit. If Alexander is ruled out, Chark still has a tough matchup and is a moderate WR3.
The Detroit Lions pass attack came up short against Minnesota in Week 9. Missing Kenny Golladay definitely hurt the team but touchdown receptions redeemed key offensive position players.
If Golladay misses again, Marvin Jones seems like a good start. However, he faces a Washington defense that has allowed the fewest FPA to wide receivers. Led by cornerback Kendall Fuller, the Washington Football Team has allowed only two top 24 wide receiver finishes.
With TJ Hockenson rising and Golladay healing up, fantasy managers may have to decide if Jones is worth a roster spot in a week or two. This week he is best fit on the bench or as a very low flex play.
Featured Image courtesy of Streeter Lecka /Getty Images
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