Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
STARTS:
Every year fantasy fans hope for the next great tight end class. The position constantly lacks depth of starters or waiver options. Evan Engram seemed poised for greatness (or even really-goodness) but his numbers are at an all-time low this season.
Fortunately, the New York Giants face a fast-fading Cincinnati Bengals team. The Bengals have allowed the 4th most FPA to tight ends and conceded five Top 12 performances. The Bengals have been stingier against tight ends in the last three weeks but the games have been less competitive.
Engram might be on waivers and is a strong spot-start. He has a good shot to put up good numbers in an easy matchup.
One monster performance can balloon a player’s season stats. Robert Tonyan’s three touchdowns in Week 4 definitely inflate the averages. However, Tonyan has seen four or more targets in three of his last four games and just posted a strong effort in Week 11.
The Packers face a Bears team that is allowing the 9th most FPA to tight ends. Chicago has also allowed six Top 12 tight ends this season including three double-digit performances in their last four games.
Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling haven’t been reliable options for Aaron Rodgers keeping Tonyan in steady rotation for looks. Tonyan is a very safe start in Week 12.
SITS:
Mitch is back! The Chicago Bears announced that Mitchell Trubisky will start at quarterback against Green Bay in Week 12. Jimmy Graham only played two and a half games with Trubisky at quarterback this season. In that time, Graham caught two of his five touchdowns this year.
The Bears face their division rival Packers on Sunday Night Football. The Packers have been tough on tight ends allowing the 4th fewest FPA. Green Bay also hasn’t given up more than three receptions to a tight end since Week 6.
Chicago hasn’t made the most of their skill position players especially in fantasy. Graham offers low upside on a Bears team that thrives on low scoring games.
Jonnu Smith
Divisional matchups are predictably unpredictable. Some teams rise to the occasion when the stakes are higher. In the second matchup between Tennessee and Indianapolis, the Colts can nearly secure a division title with a win.
When these teams first met, Jonnu Smith caught two passes for 14 yards. He added a short touchdown run to give him 8.5 fantasy points. This subpar effort was the 3rd highest total allowed to tight ends by Indy. The Colts have allowed the 3rd fewest FPA to tight ends this season and only one receiving touchdown.
Smith has earned a roster spot in all leagues but fantasy managers are right to be nervous this week. With other Titans pass-catchers playing well, Smith can be benched in all formats.
Featured Image courtesy of Stacy Revere / Getty Images
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