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Fantasy Points Against: Tight Ends to Start and Sit Week 11

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

Taysom Hill

DISCLAIMER: TAYSOM HILL IS ONLY ELIGIBLE AT TIGHT END ON SOME PLATFORMS.

This probably looks like a gimmicky play of a gimmicky player. However, with the Saints in disarray fantasy points will be strewn about at random. Alvin Kamara is banged up and Drew Brees is out against a weak division opponent.

The Atlanta Falcons are the weakest FPA to quarterbacks and tight ends and 2nd weakest to wide receivers. Being generally bad across the board is encouraging for Taysom Hill who has 260 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.

If Taysom Hill plays a remotely significant passing role, this is a unique tight end opportunity. The situation is good, the versatility is compelling, and the idea is fun. Fantasy managers looking for a frisky tight end play can go for Hill.

Tyler Higbee (John McCoy/Getty Images)

Tyler Higbee

The Rams tight ends have alternated in being the one to own. The major tiebreaker is that Tyler Higbee has outsnapped Gerald Everett in every game in which they both played.

The Rams face Tampa Bay on Monday night who have allowed the 9th most FPA to tight ends. That isn’t a horrible number except for they have allowed a league-high eight Top 12 tight end finishes. They have also allowed six touchdowns to tight ends.

There’s little pizzazz in starting Higbee but he is set up well for a fine week. He is safe to start and good to roster for owners who may need a late swap at tight end or flex.

SITS:

Noah Fant

The tight end position showed promise at the draft and even a couple weeks into the season. Now, in Week 11, we are back to the norm. Travis Kelce reigns supreme and a handful of other tight ends are duking out to be “consistent.”

The Denver Broncos face the Miami Dolphins in a matchup that doesn’t look great for tight end Noah Fant. The Dolphins have allowed the 6th fewest FPA to tight ends and only two Top 12 finishes. Miami hasn’t allowed more than five catches to a tight end all season and only Hunter Henry last week could muster double digit fantasy points.

Fant may be better than a handful of alternatives but he is in a difficult matchup. It seems unlikely for a great performance so sit Fant where possible.

Robert Tonyan

Robert Tonyan (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Among the tight ends who showed promise early was Packers surprise standout Robert Tonyan. After a breakout stretch from Weeks 2-4, Tonyan has only eclipsed five fantasy points once. He also has only seen five or more targets once since his bye in Week 5.

Green Bay draws a Colts defense that has been featured in many FPA articles. The Colts specialize in tight end defense allowing fewer FPA than every other team. They also have only given up two Top 12 performances. No tight end has scored against Indy all season.

Unlike Fant, Tonyan doesn’t have the same cachet and is a locked-in sit. Rosters with both players should pick Fant.

Featured Image courtesy of Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images

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