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Fantasy Points Against: Running Backs to Start and Sit Week 7

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

Darrell Henderson

Committees are the hardest thing for fantasy players to navigate. Darrell Henderson sits squarely as the most productive back for the Rams ahead of Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers. He has the highest yards per carry of the three (4.8) and outsnapped Brown in the first game where all three were available (53% of snaps to 45%).

Los Angeles faces the Chicago Bears who have been an elite defense this season in many metrics. One hiccup for the Bears has been rushing touchdowns. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns to running backs and have allowed six Top 24 running back performances.

Darrell Henderson (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Henderson is picking up steam in an effort to reign atop the Rams backfield. He is a very strong flex and a moderate RB2 in Week 7.

Devin Singletary

The Buffalo Bills running back group hasn’t been very productive this season with both Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss both averaging fewer than four yards per carry. Singletary also hasn’t seen a boost in touches even when Moss was out with injury.

The Bills rematch the New York Jets who held Singletary to 53 yards on 14 total touches. As the season has worn on since these two teams first met in Week 1, the Jets have begun to separate themselves from the pack as the worst team in football.

New York has the 7th most FPA to running backs this season. They have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs and seven Top 24 performances in six games. Game script should favor the Bills who enter this matchup as 13-point favorites and may be running the ball late.

Singletary has safe flex potential and RB2 upside. Zack Moss has weak flex potential but can also be started for those who believe he will surpass Singletary in the depth chart this season.

SITS:

James Robinson

The rookie undrafted free agent has more than proved his mettle as a starting NFL running back. Fantasy owners are likely in a situation where he has become must-start given injuries to elite backs. This week is a start with caution week.

James Robinson (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

James Robinson faces the Los Angeles Chargers who have allowed the 7th fewest FPA to running backs. They have only allowed three Top 24 running back performances through five games.

Robinson has seen a decrease in touches in each of the last two weeks and failed to go over 70 all-purpose yards in either. The Chargers, meanwhile, have only allowed two touchdowns to running backs this season.

This week does not allow a ton of opportunity for Robinson. Though he is probably starting in most lineups, he may only return the value of a low flex play.

Le’Veon Bell

It is yet to be seen what Le’Veon Bell’s role in the Kansas City Chiefs offense will be, but being on the field with Patrick Mahomes typically yields fantasy success. At least for this week, however, Bell should be the distinct second banana behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

The Denver Broncos defense is tied for allowing the fewest FPA to running backs and has only allowed three Top 24 running back performances in five games. Similarly, the Broncos grade as the second best PFF Rush Defense.

As intriguing as it would be to throw Bell in lineups, it is more prudent to wait a week and see what his role is. This matchup, in particular, does not favor the newly acquired back.

 

Featured Image courtesy of Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images

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