Fantasy Points Against: Running Backs to Start and Sit Week 13

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

David Montgomery

The Bears season is fading rapidly. However, as they look towards the future, David Montgomery still presents himself as an asset. He can be used as such in fantasy this week too.

Montgomery gets the best possible matchup coming off of his best performance of the season. He faces a Lions defense that has allowed the most FPA to running backs. They have also conceded league-high 13 Top 24 running back finishes. Detroit has also given up a touchdown to a running back in eight straight games including four weeks of three touchdowns and six weeks of two touchdowns.

David Montgomery (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Offensive skill players on the Bears are never stress relievers, but Montgomery is an ideal spot. He is a very stable RB2 with great scoring upside.

Chris Carson

After a stretch of four missed games, Chris Carson came back to a reasonable 41 rushing yards and a touchdown. Though the Seahawks haven’t been playing their best football, Carson can quickly re-establish dominance in the backfield.

In Week 13, Seattle hosts the New York Giants who have allowed the 11 Top 24 finishes to running backs. In five of their last seven games the Giants have allowed 10+ fantasy points to a running back.

Fantasy rosters with Chris Carson have probably banked on his presence late in the season. Managers can safely re-enter them into lineups this week.

SITS:

Todd Gurley

Just like most of Atlanta’s offense, Todd Gurley will want a crack at revenge against he New Orleans Saints. Sadly for him, it appears we are headed to the same old tune with New Orleans.

The Saints continue to be the toughest run defense allowing the fewest FPA points to running backs. Running backs collectively have totaled fewer than 15 fantasy points per game against the Saints. The Saints have also allowed a league-low five Top 24 running back finishes. Gurley was inefficient in his first matchup against New Orleans totaling 26 yards on eight carries.

Todd Gurley (Kevin C Cox/Getty Images)

Coming off a slight injury and going against the toughest possible matchup signals a surefire sit.

Kenyan Drake

The NFC West is still wide open and this week’s Rams-Cardinals tilt is a huge game. The Rams have been trading favorably posting more quality wins as of late while the Cardinals have been sliding. After a loss to a tough New England defense, Arizona gets another tough defensive opponent.

The Rams have allowed the 6th fewest FPA to running backs and only seven Top 24 finishes. They haven’t allowed more than 50 rushing yards since Week 6 and have only conceded two double-digit performances since Week 4.

If the Rams are able to throttle the Arizona offense, don’t expect much from Kenyan Drake. He’s picked up as the season has gone on but has been very touchdown-dependent lately. Drake can be started as a flex with limited expectations.

Featured Image courtesy of Todd Kirkland / Getty Images

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