Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
It seems strange to list the QB7 on the season as a start. Typically this article avoids players who obviously should and are started every week. However, Deshaun Watson started the year shaky and has bounced back.
This week, the Houston Texans face the Jacksonville Jaguars who have allowed the 3rd most FPA to quarterbacks. They also have allowed four top 12 quarterback performances this season.
This is a big week for Houston. The Titans and Colts both have difficult matchups and the Texans have a big hole to climb out of if they have any playoff hopes. Watson is a locked in starter this week in fantasy.
It also seems strange to list the QB34 on the season as a start. This, however, is more typical of this article; a player off of everyone’s radar who may merit a start. Drew Lock is coming off a season-high 19.7 fantasy points in his comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Lock now has the fortune of facing the Atlanta Falcons defense who has allowed the most FPA to quarterbacks. They have also allowed five Top 12 quarterback performances.
With the potential return of Tim Patrick, the healing ankle of Noah Fant, and the opportunity to put his team at 4-4, Lock has a lot at stake. Lock is a gutsy start this week but high upside makes him a fun play.
The 2019 NFL MVP hasn’t lived up to fantasy draft expectation this season. Lamar Jackson has amounted only to QB13 thus far. Baltimore is safe for postseason hopes but has some ground to make up on Pittsburgh for a division title.
This week, the Ravens face the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed only two top 12 quarterback performances this season. The Colts have allowed the fewest FPA to quarterbacks as well. To top it off, no quarterback has run for more than 20 yards against the Indy defense (though, no quarterback runs like Jackson).
Jackson is among the players who are really hard to bench because of draft investment. If at all possible, Jackson should not be started this week.
The Tennessee Titans quarterback has a similar situation to Jackson. Ryan Tannehill ended last season on a tear. His team is in a playoff race. Tannehill is the QB8 on the season but has had two of his three worst performances in the last couple weeks.
The Titans host the Chicago Bears who have allowed the 2nd fewest FPA to quarterbacks. They have also allowed only one top 12 quarterback performance. No quarterback has scored more than two touchdowns in any game against the Bears.
Tannehill’s stock went up after strong performances in Weeks 5 and 6 but has dipped since. He deserves a roster spot in all leagues, but a spot on the bench in Week 9.
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