Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
The Las Vegas Raiders have been a strange team with a strange schedule. They’ve scored no fewer than 20 points in a game including wins against New Orleans and Kansas City. If you remove Dak Prescott (out for the season) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (benched), Derek Carr is the QB12 in fantasy points per game.
Carr draws a Cleveland Browns team that has allowed at least 20 points in every game. The Browns also have allowed the eighth most FPA to quarterbacks including three 300+ passing yard performances and at least three passing touchdowns thrice.
The Raiders deserve credit for operating with a pretty suspect receiving core but Cleveland has been horrible in passing defense. They have been victim to four top 12 quarterback performances.
Derek Carr is an excellent streaming option in a game that should feature ample points.
The Cam Newton comeback tour hasn’t quite hit full force yet. The New England Patriots get the Buffalo Bills in a big divisional matchup. Newton hasn’t played well but has a very outside chance to bounce back.
In seven games, the Bills have allowed four top 12 quarterbacks. Of the three lower finishes, two of them were Sam Darnold and the Jets.
Newton’s advantage this week can come in the ground game. He has averaged almost 11 fantasy points per game strictly from rushing stats. He has five rushing touchdowns and just under 50 rushing yards per game.
The Bills run defense has been very weak and that should play into Cam’s favor. They have allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season and 4.6 yards per carry. Cam is still a shaky start but in dire straits is a fun and hopeful play.
The Detroit Lions have been a middle of the pack team led by a middle of the pack quarterback. Matthew Stafford has been serviceable so far and still has some fine matchups in the future, but this week should be benched everywhere.
Stafford draws the Indianapolis Colts top-flight defense that has allowed the fewest FPA to quarterbacks with an average of 11.6 fantasy points per game. They have likewise allowed only one Top 12 quarterback and one 300+ yard passer. No quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against Indy since Week 1.
Stafford is droppable depending on roster size and is absolutely unplayable this week.
The Rams need to string some quality wins together to convince the world that they can contend with the best of the NFC West. They are 5-2 this season but 4-0 against the putrid NFC East. Jared Goff hasn’t been remarkable lately and could impress with a strong Week 8 showing.
The Rams travel across the country to Miami where they face the defense allowing the 10th fewest FPA to quarterbacks. The Dolphins have only allowed two top 12 quarterbacks.
If the Tua Tagovailoa hype is to be believed, this game could demand scoring from the Rams offense. Given the Dolphins difficulty in run-stopping (26th in PFF Grade for Run Defense), Goff may not need to show up for a Rams win.
Goff has failed to get 18+ points in three of his last four starts and may be in for a tight game in this spot. Fortunately, most teams shouldn’t be depending on him for their lineups but beware a sneaky good Dolphins defense.
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