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Fantasy Points Against: Quarterbacks to Start and Sit Week 7

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford fills the Kirk Cousins spot in this week’s column. Stafford gets the very weak Atlanta defense in Week 7. Although the Falcons beat the Minnesota Vikings handily, Cousins still piled up plenty of garbage time points turning in a fine start.

Atlanta still has the most FPA to quarterbacks with a whopping 29 points per game. They have now allowed a Top 12 quarterback in five of their six games. Essentially all of the Falcons defensive analysis from last week stands for this week as well.

Matthew Stafford (Dave Birkett/Detroit Free Press)

Stafford can be started with confidence and has a very high chance to cash in a Top 12 performance.

Teddy Bridgewater

The first redemption story of this column comes in a Carolina Panthers quarterback who was a sit candidate last week. Teddy Bridgewater faces a much softer defense in New Orleans in Week 7.

The Saints defense allows the 3rd most FPA to quarterbacks this season. They have also provided opposing quarterbacks with a very safe floor. Each week, the Saints have allowed 200+ passing yards and 2+ passing touchdowns. That adds up to a 16 point fantasy floor.

Bridgewater doesn’t have many weapons in his receiving core. Fortunately, New Orleans is tied for the 3rd-worst PFF Grade for Defensive Coverage against Wide Receivers.

Bridgewater isn’t a flashy start but is a streaming option in a big divisional game.

SITS:

Jared Goff

This week, many of the top quarterback options are the usual suspects. Most fringe quarterbacks or worse aren’t great options. Jared Goff is on an intriguing team, in a primetime matchup, and his team is favored by just under a touchdown. This does not, however, make him startable.

Jared Goff (John Angelillo/UPI)

Chicago has allowed no Top 12 quarterback performances and is tied for the fewest FPA to quarterbacks. The Bears are also Top 10 in each of the major PFF defensive grades (Defense, Run Defense, Pass Rush, Tackling, Defensive Coverage against Wide Receivers).

The Rams should be in a low scoring game Monday night. Goff should safely be on fantasy benches in most leagues.

 

Featured Image courtesy of Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

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