Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
Cousins draws an Atlanta Falcons defense who has been exploitable in almost every facet this season. The Falcons have allowed a league-worst average of 30 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Atlanta has allowed four Top 12 finishes to quarterbacks this season with the only exception being against the Chicago Bears in Week 3 when Nick Foles spelled Mitchell Trubisky during the game. The two quarterbacks split performances would have been the QB4 that week.
A couple red flags with Cousins are that he hasn’t thrown for more than 260 yards in a game this year and he doesn’t get fantasy points on the ground. Fortunately, Atlanta has allowed over 300 passing yards per game and very few rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Cousins won’t be an elite option this week, but he should be a serviceable fill-in to Dak Prescott owners or teams missing their starter on a bye.
Finally it seems as though fans will get to watch the Denver Broncos face the New England Patriots. After the Pats faced a bout of COVID-19, this game will be played this weekend.
Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19 on October 3 and hasn’t been able to practice much since then. However, there are a few storylines that indicate success for Cam in his return.
This will be the first game where both Newton and running back Damien Harris play. This should help open more opportunities for Newton in the ground game. This also is another chance for Newton to get his first win against the Denver Broncos, who he has lost to thrice including Super Bowl 50. Lastly, the New England Patriots are 26-6 coming off a bye in the Bill Belichick era.
The Denver Broncos are the seventh worst in FPA to quarterbacks and have allowed two Top 12 finishes at the position. Assuming no changes in availability status, Cam is primed for a top 10 or better finish.
Tannehill has been on a tear dating back to midway through last season when the Tennessee Titans stormed their way to a playoff appearance. He also just had a 30-point QB1 performance in primetime on Tuesday. However, avoid starting Tannehill this week largely due to one telling stat.
The Houston defense has been average this year. They are 14th in FPA to quarterbacks and are 1-4 as a team. There is hope that former defensive coordinator and assistant head coach Romeo Crennel can be an upgrade to former head coach, Bill O’Brien.
Houston has yet to allow a Top 12 finish to a quarterback this season. They opened the season facing the last two NFL MVPs in Patrick Mahomes (QB13 in Week 1) and Lamar Jackson (QB18 in Week 2). It isn’t that the Texans have shut down opponents, it just seems like they hold quarterbacks down enough to allow for better options elsewhere.
Tannehill is a fine start to ride the hot streak, but look elsewhere at quarterback this week.
Teddy Bridgewater is another quarterback who comes into Week 6 on fire. Bridgewater has led the Carolina Panthers to three straight wins after an 0-2 start. He also is coming off back-to-back top 12 finishes at quarterback.
The Chicago Bears defense, however, has been elite in stopping quarterback production. They have allowed the third fewest net yards per pass attempt and have given up four passing touchdowns in five games.
It unsurprisingly translates well to fantasy defense where the Bears have the second best FPA to quarterbacks and have allowed only one top 12 finish.
Don’t Teddy Bridgewater this week in spite of his fantastic recent performance.