Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
The thrill ride of the utility man playing quarterback rolls on. Just as 2019, the New Orleans Saints are undefeated in starts from backup quarterbacks. Taysom Hill continues to spell Drew Brees in a rematch against the Atlanta Falcons.
When Hill first faced the Falcons, he finished as a Top 12 quarterback scoring over 24 points. Though the Falcons shut down Derek Carr in Week 12, they still allow the most FPA to quarterbacks. Atlanta has also given up 24+ fantasy points to quarterbacks six times.
Even if the majority of points come from the ground game, Hill has value. Against a weak defense, Hill is highly startable this week.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Minnesota Vikings a 30% chance to make the playoffs. The eye of public opinion probably looks less favorably on the Vikings. However, this weekend, Minnesota has a shot to improve their odds with a win over Jacksonville.
The Jaguars have been one of the worst defenses in football this season. They have allowed the 3rd most FPA to quarterbacks including 16+ fantasy points allowed in five straight games. Jacksonville has allowed seven Top 12 quarterback finishes.
Kirk Cousins has seemed shaky but has five Top 12 finishes. Expect him to get another this week.
Atlanta won big against Las Vegas by a score of 43-6 last week. In that mammoth victory, Matt Ryan failed to break 200 yards passing. The week before, Ryan had a horrendous outing in New Orleans failing to get even six points.
The only major change between Week 11 and this week is the venue. Atlanta hosts the Saints and Ryan once again draws a New Orleans defense that has allowed the 7th fewest FPA to quarterbacks. In division games this season, Ryan has averaged fewer than 10 fantasy points per game.
With both top receivers banged up and a difficult opponent, Ryan deserves to be on fantasy benches everywhere.
With Joe Burrow’s injury, Justin Herbert has catapulted himself to a top dog in the rookie of the year conversation. Herbert has finished as a Top 12 quarterback in seven of his ten appearances. This week, he may not fare as well.
The New England Patriots allow the 9th fewest FPA and have conceded only three Top 12 finishes. The Patriots stats aren’t scary enough on their own to ward off top fantasy options but they did just accomplish a unique feat. For the first time this season, Kyler Murray was held outside the Top 12 quarterbacks of the week.
The Chargers have managed to just lose games by a sliver for years and if that legacy holds this could be a low-scoring game. Herbert is a sketchy start but some managers may be willing to look past immediate concern.
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