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Fantasy Points Against: Quarterbacks to Start and Sit Week 12

Raiders QB Derek Carr

Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.

There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.

This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.

STARTS:

Baker Mayfield

Cleveland has been a consistent team in that they win against mediocre teams and lose big to good teams. This week, they face one of the worst teams in the NFL: the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars allow the 3rd most FPA to quarterbacks. They have also allowed 20+ fantasy points in three of their last four games as part of their six Top 12 finishes allowed.

Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

With scarce passing options, it is gutsy to start Baker Mayfield this week. The defensive allowance is there and Cleveland is facing a bad teams so Mayfield is a high-ceiling stream.

Derek Carr

In what’s shaping up to be a delayed Thanksgiving feast, the Falcons and Raiders square off this week. The Raiders are very much alive and need a win to keep in the playoff hunt.

Atlanta continues to have an unimpressive defense allowing the most FPA to quarterbacks. They have allowed seven Top 12 performances including to Taysom Hill in his first career start.

With the Falcons weak pass defense all around, Carr should have plenty of weapons at his disposal. Carr is a perfect start for teams who have streamed this season.

SITS:

Tom Brady

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit pretty well in the current playoff picture. They have a good chance to get the fifth seed which would likely draw the NFC East champion in the Wild Card round. This week would be a huge win but it doesn’t seem likely against a one-loss Kansas City team.

Tom Brady just came off a bad showing against the Rams in primetime throwing two picks and finishing as the QB19. Like the Rams, the Chiefs are a stingy defense allowing the 8th fewest FPA to quarterbacks. Only twice this season have the Chiefs allowed three touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.

If this game ends up being a shootout, Brady will be good. Teams in a pinch can start a player with a more favorable matchup to feel more secure.

Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill (Photo: Getty Images/Wesley Hitt)

Ryan Tannehill

The good times with Ryan Tannehill seem like such a distant past. After posting back-to-back elite games in Weeks 5 and 6, Tannehill had four straight games under 20 points. One of those, was his season-low against Indianapolis.

Tannehill once again draws Indianapolis who has allowed the 3rd fewest FPA to quarterbacks. Indy has held all opposing quarterbacks to fewer than 25 points and has only allowed three Top 12 performances. They have also allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in four games.

Unlike Brady, there are few scenarios that indicate Tannehill should have a strong performance. Tannehill should be benched everywhere.

 

Featured Image courtesy of Karl Mondon / Bay Area News Group

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