Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
After a resounding victory against Cincinnati, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still undefeated. The Steelers are firing on all cylinders and get a juicy matchup against a weak Jacksonville squad.
The Jaguars have allowed the 3rd most FPA to quarterbacks including six Top 12 performances (tied for league high). The Jaguars have allowed at least three touchdowns to quarterbacks in five different games. Jacksonville is also second from the bottom in yards per attempt allowed, completion percentage allowed, and passer rating allowed.
Ben Roethlisberger has only finished as a Top 12 quarterback four times this season but is due for another strong showing. With a trio of reliable wide receivers, Roethlisberger should be starting in most leagues.
The New Orleans Saints quarterback is valuable this week in fantasy against a weak Falcons defense. However, it isn’t Drew Brees. The man who brought you a 33/30 touchdowns/interceptions season is back as the presumed starter while Brees recovers from rib injuries.
Winston will face an Atlanta defense that has allowed six Top 12 quarterback finishes and the most FPA to quarterbacks. Only once since 2016 has Jameis accounted for fewer than three touchdowns against Atlanta. This season, the Falcons have allowed at least three touchdowns to quarterbacks in six games.
With a handful of regular starters facing tough opponents, Winston is absolutely startable off of waivers. He may be worth keeping as New Orleans faces Atlanta in Week 13 as well.
The Houston Texans failed to capitalize in a low scoring tussle with the Browns. With their playoff chances slipping, the Texans are in must-win mode. They face a Patriots team that is riding high off of back-to-back primetime wins.
The Patriots have been stingy to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed the 6th fewest FPA to passers and only two Top 12 quarterback performances. The only optimistic trend for Deshaun Watson is that the Patriots have allowed 20+ fantasy points to quarterbacks in consecutive games for the first time this season.
Watson’s path to success this week probably hinges on support from his legs. Watson is likely a starter for most lineups but doesn’t merit high hopes.
The Tennessee Titans, unlike the Texans, had a playoff spot temporarily and are slipping in the standings. Ryan Tannehill has had the misfortune of facing the Bears and Colts in back-to-back week. After going against the top two stingiest teams in FPA to quarterback, they now draw the 10th best fantasy defense.
The Baltimore Ravens just shut Cam Newton down even in a loss. The Ravens have only conceded three Top 12 performances to quarterbacks. Baltimore hasn’t allowed a 250+ yard passer since Week 4. The Ravens haven’t allowed 20+ fantasy points to a quarterback since Week 6 and haven’t allowed 16+ fantasy points at home all year.
Tannehill has his full arsenal of weapons ready to roll but has to survive this stretch of games. The schedule clears up after Week 12 but until then Tannehill should be riding pine in fantasy.
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