While I wasn’t as profitable in week two, the games were quite revealing. It has given us more information to take into week three, and adjust our lineups and process accordingly. At least it wasn’t the D/ST position that kept me from cashing, rather, it was the result of some high-priced wide receivers not panning out. So, let’s identify which D/ST to avoid in week three and further our quest to cash.
Philadelphia Eagles: $4,400
IND 2018 OVOA (Total): 21st IND 2018 Yards (Rushing): 23rd IND 2018 Yards (Passing): 19th
The Eagles, like most NFL defenses, have one week of solid production and another that makes you question everything you thought you knew. The world champions after getting shredded by Ryan Fitzpatrick, who I was completely wrong about in week two, have found themselves on our list of D/ST to avoid in week three.
Their placement on this list is because for the first time in three seasons, I have confidence in the Indianapolis coaching staff. In week one, the Colts threw the ball 53 times in a loss versus the Bengals. Then in week two, the Colts only required 31 pass attempts from Andrew Luck. Meaning, the Colts committed to the run despite not a single running back accumulating over 65 yards rushing. While that doesn’t seem important, it indicates that the Colts’ coaching staff can finally recognize a problem, game plan to fix it, and stick to that plan despite the early struggles.
So, if the Colts can self-scout this effectively, they can surely scout their upcoming opponent as well. The Eagles’ secondary was exposed because the defensive front was not able to consistently pressure Fitzpatrick. Fletcher Cox was the only member of the defensive line to record a sack. If they have to blitz to pressure Luck, Frank Reich and company will adjust and carve up their secondary. According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts had the second worst projected pass blocking matchup and the eighth worst projected run blocking matchup in week two. Despite that tough projection, they controlled the line of scrimmage and I have confidence they will do the same in week three. Also, the Bears defense is $100 cheaper against the woeful Arizona Cardinals, so let’s play them instead.
Arizona Cardinals: $4,000
The Chicago Bears offensive stats are not up to date as a result of Monday Night Football.
It’s hard for me to fathom why this unit isn’t being considered among the lowest priced options on FanDuel. The Cardinals’ offense is so anemic that it is impacting the fantasy prospects of its defense. Teams are dominating time of possession against the Cardinals, as the Sam Bradford led unit cannot sustain drives and change field position. Their defense doesn’t lack talent, but it is lacking rest and support from their offense. As long as Sam Bradford is the at the helm of the Cardinals’ offense, this defense is unplayable.
Miami Dolphins: $3,700
OAK 2018 OVOA (Total): 20th OAK 2018 Yards (Rushing): 20th OAK 2018 Yards (Passing): 8th
The Dolphins were one of the last teams anyone thought would start 2-0. While their schedule hasn’t been particularly difficult, there was a lot of uncertainty entering this season surrounding Ryan Tannehill and this defense. While this unit has scored 13 points in their first two games this season, that trend won’t continue in week three.
I went on record last week saying this Raiders team is not as bad as they looked in week one. They were simply overmatched by a superior team in the Rams. Despite only scoring 13 points, I placed the Broncos on last week’s D/ST to avoid, and they only scored four FanDuel points. This Raiders team is not as bad offensively as originally advertised. This offensive line will give Derek Carr enough time to move the ball on the Dolphins secondary. Don’t pay down for D/ST in week three with great options like the Bears and Ravens at $4,300.
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