The unexpected appearance of TSM in the finals after taking down the heavy favorites of Immortals, coupled with the CLG victory in the other semifinal points towards that this could be the best final of any NA LCS split ever.
There are many story-lines converging in one single event . TSM makes the final once again as an underdog. This is the seventh LCS split and the seventh final that TSM plays, meaning that they have made top-2 in every LCS split. There have been splits were TSM was heavily underrated and for good reasons, yet they always perform in playoffs. It is not the first time that TSM was expected to lose in the quarterfinals or the semifinals, and this is the reason why for many people TSM is the best team in the world preparing for a tournament, because they always perform better than expected in playoffs or international competition.
The off-season was plagued by trash-talk between the CLG and TSM organizations. It all started with the Doublelift transfer from CLG to rival TSM, followed by a few less than ideal PR statements, the arguments got heated between both sides igniting the oldest rivalry in League of Legends more than ever before. CLG seemed dismantled with the loss of Doublelift and Pobelter, whereas TSM looked like one of the strongest teams in the league before the split started. As the season developed, CLG showed that they were the team that had a better grasp of the meta and could work between the different personalities on the team. On the other side, TSM struggled to understand the meta, to establish and follow a leader and to win games. When the regular split came to an end, to the surprise of many, CLG was stronger team than many people had expected.
TSM can accomplish something that has never happened before and that it is unlikely to happen very often. They beat C9, the third seed in the quarterfinals. Then they beat Immortals, the number one seed. And they will play against the number two seed from the regular split in the finals (CLG). Meaning, if they are the North American representative heading into MSI, they have to have beaten the top three teams from North America in a bo5. TSM has proven that they are a team worthy of the title, and many could argue that they already beat the final boss, but the stage of Las Vegas awaits and the monster of CLG is waiting for the best revenge in League of Legends history.
Why TSM will win:
They have more talented individuals. Before the split started, many people credited TSM because they were the superior team in terms of talent. However, the regular split showed that talent alone does not win games. It is a fair point that CLG has shown for a longer period of time that they play as a cohesive unit with little internal disagreement on the shotcalling. On the other side TSM seems to have gotten past the point where the internal issues should be worrisome any longer. They beat C9 and Immortals, if there are any doubts that these is a different team than the one that played in the regular split, those should be deleted. TSM is a more talented team that seems to have finally understood the meta and be able to execute strategies that are optimal. TSM improved tremendously in playoffs, something that can play to their advantage is that no one really knows what to expect. Although they will surely play good League of Legends, it is uncertain as to whether they have more strategies that did not need to showcase because of the standard way they needed to play to beat the multiple ADC comps that Immortals tried to play . TSM seems to have an advantage in Tank metas and this is surely a final where tanks will be played. TSM has the unpredictability factor, which will probably not win them the series, but it can tilt the tie in the crucial first game which they have historically been terrible at.
Why CLG will win?
They want to win more than TSM does. Despite having won the last split at MSI, neither Stixxay nor Huhi played there, and before that CLG had not been a successful organization since season 2. They failed to qualify to worlds multiple times with very unsuccessful playoffs runs. At one point they almost got relegated. CLG not only has accomplished less than TSM has, but it was basically insulted by Doublelift with all the statements he made about the organization, and how they mistreat their players, etc. From the management to the players it seems very evident that CLG cannot afford the embarrassment of losing to TSM one more time in such a big stage. CLG also has been a solid team for a longer period of time. They played very well during the regular season and even though they did not improve tremendously heading into playoffs, they are a team that knows how to play the map and does not get impatient even in close situations, an asset very important heading into Las Vegas.
I think Maokai will be the deciding factor in this series. The jungler position is at one of the strongest points it has been in a while shifting the power away from top lane. CLG was successful in summer of 2015 because Darshan was the best top laner from NA on carry champions. With the meta shifting towards tanks, CLG has lost too much of an advantage because Hauntzer showed proficiency on Maokai against Immortals. Whereas CLG has never looked great when Darshan is not carrying in some way. Therefore, the mismatch in the top lane that could give CLG the advantage has been reduced enough so that TSM carries can outshine their counterparts. I predict that TSM will comfortably win the series
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