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According to history, LCS teams finishing 0-2 this week will miss Spring Split Playoffs

Golden Guardians enter week three in last place in NA LCS Spring Split

Following two weeks of European and North American LCS Spring Split, many fans and analysts will jump to conclusions. Some sites placed Echo Fox as a top 10 Worlds contender, G2 as the sixth best in Europe, or FlyQuest as ninth in NA. While anyone will say that the rest of the season will be unpredictable, LCS history can help temper expectations.

This split feels less predictable

Spring Split generally feels more chaotic at the start, because teams make more dramatic roster changes in the off-season after Worlds. This off-season, in particular, introduced several new organizations into the LCS and many keystone players changed rosters. With so many questions of synergy, cooperation and communication in the air, it is clear why analysts are left scratching their heads.

CLG enters week three tied for seventh in NA LCS Spring Split
Image from LoL Esports Flickr

The best-of-one, single group format of EU and NA LCS this year is a large contributing factor to everyone’s perceived unpredictability of results. Placements have felt more stagnant over the past few splits, thanks to best-of-threes, best-of-twos and Europe’s two-group format. However, these leagues have not always used those formats. In fact, EU and NA used their current format in the 2015 and 2016 Spring Splits: best-of-ones, a single group, ten teams.

Revisiting past splits

Spring Split standings seemed unpredictable in 2015 and 2016, too. In 2015, NA and EU expanded from eight teams to ten. Huni and Reignover just joined Fnatic. Elements, one of the first super teams, entered the EU LCS. In NA, four new organizations stepped onto the scene. Imaqtpie left Dignitas.

Elements entered the LCS Spring Split 2015
Image from LoL Esports Flickr

Origen, G2 and Splyce played their first Spring Splits in 2016. H2K picked up Jankos and Forg1ven. In 2016, NRG, Echo Fox and Immortals had their inaugural Spring Splits. Cloud9 got Jensen, and ZionSpartan changed his moniker to Darshan. These were times of massive change and adjustment, which left analysts with the difficult task of predicting team strengths.

Maybe reviewing the results of these previous splits can help predict the results of the 2018 Spring Split. The trajectories of different teams from week one to week 10 in 2015 and 2016 could reproduce themselves this year. Starting the season at the top may not have a history of panning out to success by the end of the split.

Emerging patterns

Some teams that started in the top six EU LCS Spring Split 2015 did not make playoffs
1. Image from Leaguepedia
Some teams that started in the top six EU LCS Spring Split 2016 did not make playoffs
2. Image from Leaguepedia
Some teams that started in the top six NA LCS Spring Split 2015 did not make playoffs
3. Image from Leaguepedia

Some teams that started in the top six NA LCS Spring Split 2016 did not make playoffs4. Image from Leaguepedia

Some patterns emerge when looking at the standings over time. In 2015, two out of six EU teams, and two out of seven NA teams, finished the second week as a playoff team, but dropped out by week 10. In 2016, one of the six EU teams, and two of the seven NA teams, fell under the same circumstances. Seven out of 26 teams across these years and regions failed to qualify for playoffs, despite starting the split in the top six. That amounts to a 27 percent rate of failure.

2015 saw Elements and Giants fall from third and fourth to seventh and ninth. 2016 Elements finished their second week tied for first, but dropped to seventh again. In 2015, Team 8 and Winterfox finished seventh and eighth, despite being tied for fourth in week two. In 2016, Team Dignitas and Team Impulse ended at the bottom of the standings, falling from their third place tie in week two.

The 2018 week two results do not quite match up with those of the past. North America has a three-way tie for second and a tie for fifth. Europe has a four-way tie for first and a three-way tie for fifth. However, broad trends have happened in the past that could repeat themselves this year.

For example, other than Elements in 2016, every team that started first or second in week two qualified for playoffs. That statistic bodes well for the European teams currently tied for first, Echo Fox and the North American teams tied for second. More importantly, 10 out of 12 teams, regardless of rank, that had a 0-2 week three did not make playoffs at the end of Spring. If that trend continues, then organizations that finish this week 0-2 have an 83 percent chance of missing playoffs.

Looking to the rest of the Spring Split

While these reviews of the past can help contextualize the present, history does not always repeat itself. There are exceptions to every rule. Notice how nothing mentioned above came out to 100 percent. Picking up trends can help predict certain parts of the future, but it can also become unsettling.

Analysts are left to predict the rest of Spring Split 2018
Image from LoL Esports Flickr

Will Huni help 2018 Echo Fox be 2016 Immortals reincarnated? Is TSM destined to replace Clutch Gaming or FlyQuest, like Cloud9 did Team 8 in 2015? If H2K goes 0-2 in week three, then are they blocked from playoffs? What are the odds that Team Vitality fall below sixth place?

These and many more questions remain unanswered by historical data alone. But it is interesting to watch each split unfold, while looking for the parallels. With the return of best-of-ones and single groups, the EU and NA LCS are returning to 2015 and 2016 form. The chaos of competition has most fans and analysts trying their best to make sense of everything. Looking to other Spring Splits, and studying the patterns, can help create expectations moving forward. The 2018 Spring Splits will either reinforce, or buck, the trend.

credits

Featured Image: LoL Esports Flickr

Other Images: LoL Esports Flickr

Historical Data: Leaguepedia

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