As we trundle toward the business end of the 2024/25 NBA season, it’s fairly clear who the main contenders for the NBA Championship are. Yes, we could get a surprise package in the weeks ahead, but there is a clutch of teams that you look at and say, “The champions are coming from that group.”
Do we put the Cleveland Cavaliers in that bracket? Yes. The Cavs had their doubters earlier on in the season, with many believing they couldn’t keep up such a high standard throughout the campaign. It looks like it is going to be a really tight race between the Cavs and Celtics to top the Eastern Conference. The latter has closed the gap in recent weeks, but Cleveland still has an advantage.
The upshot is interesting when you look at the NBA Playoff odds. You’ve got the two favorites – the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics. The former has arguably been the standout team in the NBA this year and will almost certainly take the No. 1 seed in the West. And the Celtics have done it all before and have the nous and experience to become repeat champions.
The Cavs look like a value pick in Playoff odds.
The NBA Championship odds for OKC are around +155, with the Celtics at just over +200. Yet, there is a significant gap to the Cavs at +650. It tells you that sportsbooks believe Boston and OKC are hurtling toward a showdown in the NBA Finals, with the Cavs just about on the margins to play spoiler.
There is an even more significant gap between the Cavs and the other teams, with the next best-priced team, the Denver Nuggets, at +1400, followed by the Golden State Warriors, LA Lakers, and New York Knicks. Any teams outside this group, you are looking at really high odds – we are looking at teams like the Timberwolves, Clippers, and Bucks – and minor miracle territory.
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Former NBA Player Patrick Beverley on if the Cavs Can Win an NBA Championship – Sports4CLE, 3/25/25
Perhaps the question is this: do the Cav’s odds represent a sweet spot between betting value and a real chance of winning? As we said, the team has been defying critics all season, and nobody can deny that they have not earned the contender’s tag.
Why the Cavs Might Be a Strong Playoff Value Bet
The Cavs have emerged with elite defense as a foundation for their season, with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen providing the secure platform for the team. Defenses alone don’t win championships, but they can go a long way to giving the solidity a team needs to succeed. Other standouts include Darius Garland, who is thriving as a playmaker. You can argue, too, that last season’s Playoff run will stand them in good stead.
For balance, we should say that this team has flaws. Offensive inconsistency is one, and fans will hope that Garland and Donovan Mitchell bring their A-games when it matters in the Playoffs. There may also be a sense that the Cavs peaked earlier in the season.
That said, this argument is about betting value. At a push, most pundits would cite the OKC or Celtics as the teams most likely to win it all. Yet, their odds are shorter than most bettors would like. Some might opt for a long shot like the Nuggets, but perhaps the Cavs stand out as the team offering the most value in the market. We will soon find out if there is any merit in that statement.
