The final week of the EU LCS Spring Split is here. While Giants, Origen, and Vitality have no chance at making it into playoffs, they will still have a say in how the standings end after week 10. The top three teams in Group B could swap positions, depending on how their match-ups go. Group A is all but settled except for third place, which will go to Fnatic or Roccat. Fnatic currently holds third with a 5-6 record, while Roccat sits just below at 5-7.
This week, Fnatic will face G2 and Misfits. Roccat only plays G2. And since G2 has been undefeated thus far, it is highly unlikely that either squad will take a series off of them. There are three possibilities for these two teams at the end of week 10:
Fnatic Wins Both Series
Fnatic’s best case scenario is to win both week 10 series. They will need to muster their focus and execute properly to beat G2 and Misfits. Any viewer will tell you this possibility is highly unlikely, though. It would truly be shocking if Fnatic beats G2 in their current form.
If Fnatic does pull out two wins this week, then Roccat’s match-up with G2 is null, as their record would finish at 6-7, while Fnatic’s would finish 7-6. Fnatic would automatically seed into playoffs.
Fnatic Wins One Series
Misfits has looked shaky lately. They have not had a series win since week 6, including a 2-0 loss to Roccat last week. Fnatic should focus on that match-up, as it is their most likely chance of retaining third place after week 10. If Fnatic wins this best-of-3, and Roccat loses to G2, then their games against G2 will not matter. Fnatic would end with one additional win over Roccat.
However, if Roccat does win against G2, but Fnatic only wins one series, then things gets interesting. Fnatic’s record would end at 6-7 and Roccat’s would also be 6-7.
The tiebreaker rules state “if two teams have the same record, ties will be broken by Head to Head record.”
Fnatic beat Roccat in week 3. Roccat beat Fnatic in week 8. So, their Head to Head record is 1-1.
The next set of tiebreaker rules state “if Head to Head records are identical, total games won will be used.”
Roccat’s game record is 12-16. Fnatic’s is 14-16, so they have the edge. At this point, it is impossible for Roccat’s game record to match Fnatic’s if they both win a series. Therefore, Fnatic would still qualify for playoffs.
Fnatic Loses Both Series
The last possibility is that both teams lose out. Roccat has been on a surprising tear over the last three weeks, but G2 is the toughest possible opponent they could hope for in week 10.
If Roccat somehow wins, then it will force Fnatic to win at least one of their series this week. Hypothetically, if Roccat beats G2, and Fnatic loses both best-of-3’s, then Roccat will surpass Fnatic’s series record and take third place in Group A. Roccat would end the regular season with a 6-7 record, while Fnatic would finish at 5-7.
If neither Roccat nor Fnatic secures a win in week 10, then the standings will remain the same. Giants are unable to climb more than one win.
There is a possibility that Fnatic could take second place from Misfits, but that would involve Misfits losing to Giants and Fnatic, and Fnatic would also have to beat G2. The Head to Head between Misfits and Fnatic would be 1-1, which would elevate whichever team had more game wins. In that case, Misfits would need at least two game wins to trigger the tiebreaker match with Fnatic for second place. If Fnatic wins both series, and Misfits are unable to acquire two game wins, then Fnatic will automatically secure second place.
However, the realistic expectation is that Fnatic and Roccat will both lose all of their series in week 10. G2 should easily be able to dispel these two teams in a best-of-3, and Misfits should also be able to handily beat Fnatic. Fnatic and Roccat will need to play at their highest possible level and hope that G2 and Misfits do not.