The College Football Playoff will have 12 teams for this season. Even with more teams, there will still be teams not projected to make the field who will end up doing so. Here are darkhorse contenders for the College Football Playoff.
Note: Odds to make the CFP must be +350 to make the list. Odds found here.
BYU won 12 games last season, with both of their losses coming to Texas Tech, who made the CFP. The Cougars have 13 total starters back, which includes quarterback Bear Bachmeier. Bachmeier had a great freshman season and his growth as a player is enough to believe another great season could be in store. Running back LJ Martin had 1,305 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground, which should give the offense balance. Two starters return on the offensive line, while the defense has eight starters back and bring in linebacker Cade Ulauave to a unit that ranked in the top 20 last season.
The Cougars are just behind Texas Tech in odds to win the Big 12. BYU doesn’t play Texas Tech in the regular season and would only play them if both teams made the Big 12 Championship Game again. If they can get revenge, the Big 12 auto-bid would be theirs in this scenario. The Cougars have some life as an at-large team as well. They have a tough home game against Notre Dame, but otherwise have a decently manageable schedule. While having two losses last season kept them out of the CFP, a loss to Notre Dame and then a loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship could go the other way this time based on what the rest of the country does.
Matt Campbell is taking over Penn State and is bringing a lot of talent from Iowa State with him. Quarterback Rocco Becht is experienced and will have plenty of his skill position players from the Cyclones joining him, giving him some familiarity. Returners and transfers on the offensive line can make it a solid unit. Defensively, they have a lot of transfers that will have to gel early, but they have a talented defensive coordinator in D’Anton Lynn, who can help them reach their potential.
Penn State has an easier schedule this season and with the talent returning and coming in from the portal, they could go on a run. The Nittany Lions do not play Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana, who are the projected top teams in the conference. Their toughest games will be: vs. USC, at Michigan and at Washington. Winning at least one of those games could give them a path to being 10-2, but they could win more and really cement their case for the CFP. Would it be a lot for a new head coach at Penn State to make the CFP? Yes. Is there a path? Also yes.
Boise State made the CFP two seasons ago, then won nine games last year. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has started a lot of games and should be able to have another solid year. Skill position players are back, including running back Dylan Riley, wide receiver Cameron Bates and tight end Matt Wagner. The offensive line has three starters back too, so the offense should rank higher than 47th in scoring. Defensively, five starters return. Edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan can get pressure on the quarterback, while cornerback Jaden Mickey can lead a new-look secondary. The defense will need to be a bit better this season, but there are some tools to work with.
The highest-ranked group of six team will make the CFP this season and Boise State is the frontrunner right now for that spot. They will have tough nonconference games to prove themselves against Oregon, Memphis and Western Michigan. Memphis and Western Michigan are other projected good group of six teams, so even with a loss to Oregon, winning those can help them bolster their case. They have a decently tough schedule in the new Pac-12, including games against Fresno State and San Diego State, but they should be able to win most of them. If Boise State can go throughout the season with just a loss or two, they will be in play to make the CFP.
Willie Fritz turned Houston around quickly, winning 10 games in just his second season. The Cougars have 10 total starters returning, including four on offense. Quarterback Conner Weigman had a solid season in 2025 with 25 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Two offensive linemen rejoin him, but new players will need to step up. Running back Makhi Hughes should help the offense after he was very effective two seasons ago at Tulane. The defense brings six starters back from a top 50 unit. There is some real potential in the secondary, including cornerback Will James.
Houston has the fifth-best odds to win the Big 12,should be better than that given last season’s results and the talent on the roster. The Cougars also don’t play BYU, one of the other favorites in the conference. Houston will have tough games against Texas Tech, Kansas State and Utah, but if they can win enough to get to the Big 12 Championship Game, they could end up winning it.
Pittsburgh won eight games last season and has 11 starters back from that team. Quarterback Mason Heintschel was solid as a freshman and his growth, along with that of running back Ja’Kryian Turner, should keep the offense rolling after they ranked 20th in scoring. The offensive line has four starters back, but some more receiving production will be needed. On defense, there were some big losses to the portal and the NFL, but five starters are back. The Panthers should be good up front and the secondary should have time to develop at the start of the season.
In an ACC that has been down, Pitt could surprise some people. They do play on the road against Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville, some of the tougher teams in the conference. Overall though, they have a relatively easy schedule and if they can win some of those games, they could make the ACC Championship Game with a path to the CFP.
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