The College Football Playoff will have 12 teams for this season. Even with more teams, there will still be teams not projected to make the field who will end up doing so. Here are darkhorse contenders for the College Football Playoff.
Note: Odds to make the CFP must be +350 to make the list. Odds found here.
Last season, Florida won eight games and saw a lot of their younger players get experience. In total, 13 starters are back, with six being on offense and seven on defense. DJ Lagway showed some flashes as a freshman quarterback and is expected to take a big step forward this season. He will have one of the best offensive lines in front of him and plenty of talent at the skill positions, with a mix of recruits and transfers supplementing the offense.
While Florida has a tough schedule, they played well against a similar schedule last season and should be expected to improve. With matchups at LSU, at Miami, vs. Texas, at Texas A&M, vs. Georgia and at Ole Miss, there is a chance for Florida to trip up. This season will likely see the first three-loss team getting into the CFP and with how tough Florida’s schedule is, and with some natural progression of the talent on their roster, the Gators could be that team.
SMU made the CFP last season with an 11-2 record. While they lost to Penn State in the first round, they return seven starters from that team. Starting quarterback Kevin Jennings returns and he will have three starting offensive linemen back from last year’s team to protect him. RJ Maryland is back at tight end, but more threats on offense will have to step up. The secondary has some talent returning, but the front seven will need some of their many transfers to fill new roles.
SMU has a schedule that could lead them to making back-to-back CFPs, if they play to their potential. They have tough games vs. Baylor, at Clemson, vs. Miami and vs. Louisville. If they are able to win two to three of those, they can be in contention for the CFP. They were able to get in with two losses last season, but SMU could win the conference this season to lock up a bid.
Arizona State is another team that also made the CFP last season and will be trying to return. The Sun Devils have 16 starters returning. Quarterback Sam Leavitt showed some real potential last season after passing for 2,885 yards and rushing for 443. Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is back, along with four starters on the offensive line. The defense ranked tied for 37th in scoring and has nine players back to help the unit improve.
Arizona State won the Big 12 to make the CFP last season, but have potential to do that or be an at-large team this season. They have a non-conference game at Mississippi State, which they should win, but could be tricky. In conference, games at Baylor, at Utah, vs. Texas Tech and at Iowa State will be key for their road to a return to the CFP. They don’t have to go undefeated, but can win the majority of these conference games to be in contention for the CFP.
Illinois had a great season in which they won 10 games in 2024. They have 16 starters returning to the team, including nine on offense and seven on defense. Luke Altmyer is back at quarterback and will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the Big Ten. New wide receivers will have to step up to help him, but they should be able to run the ball well. Defensively, Gabe Jacas can help get after the quarterback after notching eight sacks last season. The secondary returns all impact players, which should help them rank better than 31st, where they ranked last season, as a scoring defense in 2025.
Making the CFP out of the Big Ten won’t be easy, but it is possible for the Fighting Illini. They will have big games at Indiana, vs. Ohio State and at Washington. Illinois doesn’t play Oregon or Michigan, which will make having a good record a bit easier. If they can take care of business, with just one loss (possibly Ohio State?), the Illini could be right on the cusp of the CFP.
Iowa State made the Big 12 Championship Game last season and return some key pieces from last year’s team. Quarterback Rocco Becht is experienced and will have a solid offensive line blocking for him. The running game returns a lot of production, but new players will need to help out the passing attack at the wide receiver position. Defensively, Dominique Orange is huge up front. Three other starters return on defense, which ranked 41st last season.
The Cyclones could compete for a Big 12 Championship again this season, which is their best bet to make the CFP. They have tough games vs. Kansas State (in Ireland), vs. Iowa, vs. BYU and vs. Arizona State. If they can win 10 or 11 games in the regular season, they can be in the Big 12 Championship and/or on the verge of a CFP bid.
The group of five conferences will have a representative and while Boise State is the favorite, they could slip up. Navy is a team that would fit the darkhorse term. They won 10 games last season and have 11 starters returning to the team. Blake Horvath is back to run the triple option and all of his playmakers are back too. The offensive line will have some new faces to break in, but they will be well-versed in the Navy offense. Defensively, only three starters return from a unit that ranked 34th in scoring, but some players can make an impact, including nose tackle Landon Robinson.
Navy can win 11 games on their schedule and possibly make the AAC Championship Game with a chance to represent the group of five in CFP. They have tough games at Notre Dame and at Memphis. While a loss to Notre Dame is likely, if they can run the table otherwise and then win the AAC, they could be the highest-ranked group of five champion, qualifying them for the CFP.
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