The College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams for this season and beyond. Even with more teams, there will still be teams not projected to make the field who will end up doing so. Here are darkhorse contenders for the College Football Playoff.
Note: Odds to win the CFP Championship must be plus money to make the list. Odds found here.
The reigning national champs are plus money to make a 12-team playoff. Michigan lost Jim Harbaugh, lots of members of the coaching staff and several key players. They do have some impact players on both sides of the ball back. The key to them making the CFP is the quarterback position. Alex Orji can throw and run, which he has shown in limited time. If he can open things up with his arm, Michigan should be able to find room on the ground for Donovan Edwards. Defensively, defensive linemen Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham can help up front, while cornerback Will Johnson is one of the best in the country.
While winning the Big Ten might be tough for the Wolverines, it isn’t out of the question. They have a tough nonconference game with Texas for a chance to boost their resume. In conference, they have tough games against USC, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State. Michigan can probably afford two to three losses and be in contention to make the playoff. That is good news for them, as their over/under win total is 9.5.
Missouri surprised everyone last season by winning 11 games and they have a chance to match that total. Nine starters return on offense, including quarterback Brady Cook and top receivers Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr. An offense that scored 32.5 points per game, should improve. The defense was a top 25 unit and has five starters back. With all that returning talent, a trip to the CFP could be in the cards.
Nine games is probably the minimum a team can win and make the CFP without winning their conference. Missouri has a decently manageable schedule this season given the new SEC format. They have tough games against Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. The Tigers could win one or two of those games and if they take care of their other games, a trip to the playoff could be in the cards.
Miami has hit the transfer portal to really boost their team for this season. Quarterback Cam Ward comes in from Washington State, while running back Damien Martinez joins from Oregon State. These two additions should really boost an offense that scored 31.5 points per game last season. The defense allowed 22.8 points per game, with four players returning. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. has a chance to be an elite edge rusher this season.
The opening game of the season will say a lot about the Hurricanes, as they play Florida in their toughest nonconference contest. In conference, there will be tough matchups with Virginia Tech and Florida State. A down ACC and a manageable schedule, could help Miami make the CFP in Mario Cristobal’s third season.
Utah gets Cam Rising back from injury at quarterback, which is huge. Last season the Utes didn’t have great quarterback play and still won eight games. Utah has just four starters back on offense, but do have talent with injured players and transfers coming in. They only scored 23.2 points per game and that should vastly improve. Defensively, seven players return, which should make it a unit of strength again.
The Big 12 is a conference that doesn’t have a clear favorite. They have big games against Oklahoma State, Arizona and Iowa State. Utah will be favored in some of those games and could put themselves into position to be in the Big 12 Championship Game. Even if they aren’t in the Big 12 Championship Game, there is a chance for an at-large bid.
Kansas State won nine games last season. While Will Howard is off to Ohio State, Avery Johnson was a highly-rated recruit who steps into the starting lineup. Running back DJ Giddens is coming off a big season when he rushed for 1,226 yards. Only three other starters return on offense, but Johnson gives them hope after they ranked 10th in the country in scoring. Defensively, seven starters are back and head coach Chris Kleiman will have them ready to play.
As mentioned, the Big 12 could see several different teams win it this season, which is not true for every conference. They’ll be tested against Arizona, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. They can get in if they win the Big 12, but also can be in contention if they don’t win it, if they get enough wins.
Boise State won eight games last season, but finished strong. They won their last three regular-season games and the Mountain West Championship. Six starters are back including running back Ashton Jeanty, who is one of the best in the country. Former big-time quarterback recruit Malachi Nelson enters the fold after starting his career at USC. Defensively, eight players are back from a unit that allowed 25.1 points per game.
One group of five team will make the playoff in the new 12-team format. Picking that team can be difficult, but also lucrative if they are wagered on. Boise has a chance to be that team. They have a tough nonconference game at Oregon, but if they play well, then run the table in the Mountain West, they could get the nod into the College Football Playoff.
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