There aren’t many instances where a team from the FCS can beat an FBS team, but it does happen. Last season, there were four such upsets during the college football season. What are the best chances for an FCS-over-FBS upset?
Tarleton State was ranked fourth in the FCS preseason poll heading into the 2026 college football season. The Texans won a game over an FBS team last season, beating Army. Former FBS quarterbacks are fighting to take over the offense, a unit that put up over 42 points per game last season. After winning 12 games, the Texans were bounced out of the FCS playoffs in the quarterfinals. They should still have enough firepower to compete. Bowling Green won just four games last season and has just three starters returning. They are projected to finish near the bottom of the MAC and the FBS as a whole, so Tarleton State could pull off an upset again this year.
In the preseason poll, Southeastern Louisiana checks in at No. 20. They won nine games last season and made the FCS playoffs. A few different options will be there for the Lions at quarterback, while the retention of running back Deantre Jackson will be huge, as he had 10 touchdowns last season. The Lions will be going up against a South Alabama Jaguars team that won four games last season. USA returns five starters and are projected to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt, making them liable for an upset.
The reigning FCS champions, Montana State, come in at the top spot in the FCS preseason poll. Justin Lamson is back at quarterback after passing for 3,172 yards, 26 touchdowns and three interceptions. Wide receiver Taco Dowler and his brother, defensive back Caden Dowler, are back after making plays last season. Nevada won three games last season and although six starters return, they likely will have an uphill battle to be a bowl-eligible team. The Bobcats will have comparable talent and could win the game on the road. It may not even be an upset by the time sportsbooks set a line for this game.
Illinois State is the runner-up in the FCS from last season and now is the fourth-ranked team in the FCS preseason poll. They have good talent at the skill positions and linebacker Tye Niekamp is a leader on defense. If they can find a new quarterback to lead the offense, Illinois State can go deep in the FCS playoffs again. Northern Illinois won three games last season and lost head coach Thomas Hammock to the NFL. They are susceptible to an upset, especially with the Illinois State game coming in between road trips to Iowa and Arizona during a year that they will be making a lot of long road trips in the new Mountain West.
Last season, the Grizzlies went to the FCS semifinals. This season, they are ranked second in the FCS preseason poll. They have a new head coach in Bobby Kennedy, but should be able to keep the program moving. Quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat was great as a sophomore and more is expected after he passed for 33 touchdowns. With running back Eli Gillman back as well, Montana has some real stars that could help them compete for an FCS championship. Oregon State won two games last year, but they do have nine starters returning, including quarterback Maalik Murphy. Montana will play Oregon State physically and may be able to come up with an upset.
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