While upsets happen all the time in the NCAA Tournament, there are usually only a handful of teams that can win the tournament. Here is a guide to Picking a 2025 NCAA Tournament Champion!
These teams are efficient on both ends of the floor and are usually battle-tested as well. The last team to win it all and not be top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (according to kenpom.com) was UConn in 2014. That UConn team is the only team since 2002 not to meet those parameters and still win the championship.
Other teams could follow 2014 UConn’s steps and win it all, but they would be a statistical outlier.
Note: Teams can start outside of these parameters, but play so efficiently in the tournament that they finish there.
A guide to picking a 2025 NCAA Tournament Champion
Duke Blue Devils- Duke is one of the most efficient teams in history on kenpom. They rank third in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency. Injuries to Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown will need to be monitored, but Duke will be one of the more popular picks to win it all, and for good reason. Flagg, when healthy, is a difference-maker who leads Duke in all major statistical categories.
Florida Gators- Florida is the most efficient offensive team in the country and the 10th most defensively. They have so many ways to win the game with talented guards and bigs. Walter Clayton has been great at point guard, while Alex Condon’s draft stock has risen this season. They also rebound the ball well.
Houston Cougars- Kelvin Sampson has a tough, physical team once again that ranks second in defensive efficiency. They also rank 10th in offensive efficiency. The Cougars have a star in LJ Cryer, who scores 15.2 points per game. J’Wan Roberts has an ankle injury that is being checked out this week, so check on that before picking Houston to go to a Final Four.
Auburn Tigers- Auburn has been one of the top teams in the country all season long. They are second in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. They have lost three of their last four games, but do have one of the two best players in the country in Johni Broome.
Tennessee Volunteers- Rick Barnes has another good defensive team, as they rank second in defensive efficiency. The Volunteers are also 18th in offensive efficiency. They were allowed to be more physical in SEC play and will have to adjust to what is usually a tighter whistle in the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State Cyclones- Iowa State is 20th in offensive efficiency and ninth in defensive efficiency. They have had good and bad moments when they don’t have a full roster to work with. Guard Keshon Gilbert is out for the NCAA Tournament, which could limit their ceiling. They fit into the criteria, but pick Iowa State to go far with more risk than the other teams in this group.
Clemson Tigers- After a good tournament run last season, the Tigers rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive. They have Chase Hunter and Ian Schiefflin returning from last year’s team and have reinforcements around them. They are the worst seed (no. 5) in this group so there is also more risk in selecting them to make a Final Four as well.
*Teams fall outside of the parameters, but could play their way into them with efficient play in the NCAA Tournament.
Alabama Crimson Tide- Alabama ranks fourth in offensive efficiency and 32nd in defensive efficiency. Grant Nelson, their star big man, is dealing with a knee injury and is questionable to play this week. If he is out, Alabama will be limited. There is risk with Alabama, as their defense comes and goes, which doesn’t pair well with their proclivity to taking 3-pointers even though they don’t shoot as well as most years.
Texas Tech Red Raiders- Texas Tech ranks sixth in offensive efficiency and 37th in defensive efficiency. They will need to improve their defensive efficiency a lot to win the whole thing. The Red Raiders are still capable of a run in March, as J.T. Toppin has played well and is surrounded by good shooters.
Michigan State Spartans- Tom Izzo has done a fantastic job with the Spartans, who rank 27th in offensive efficiency and fifth in defensive efficiency. They have struggled from shooting on the outside, but the emergence of Jase Richardson, the son of Jason Richardson could help them improve offensively to fit inside the parameters.
Gonzaga Bulldogs- Gonzaga had a rough season by their standards and are a no. 8 seed. They still are efficient, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have one of the best point guards in the country in Ryan Nembhard and were projected to be a much better seed in the preseason. If they get hot, a tournament run could be in the cards.
Maryland Terrapins- Maryland ranks 28th and 6th in offensive and defensive efficiency respectively. They rely a lot on their starters, but have good guard play to pair with Julian Reese and Derik Queen who are stars on the interior. If they stay out of foul trouble, Maryland has potential to go far in the tournament.
Wisconsin Badgers- Wisconsin is a much different offensive team this season, ranking 13th in offensive efficiency. They are still solid with the 27th-ranked defensive efficiency. The Badgers have a star in John Tonje who is capable of lighting it up. If they lock in defensively, they could go on a run.
Arizona Wildcats- Arizona ranks 12th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency. They rely a lot on Caleb Love, who has incredible spurts of production, but also slumps a lot too. A tournament run is contingent on him getting hot.
Texas A&M Aggies- Texas A&M ranks 44th in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive. They are tough and rebound well. Like Arizona, they may go as far as their star player, Wade Taylor. He can score a lot, but also can be inefficient. If he is on, Texas A&M could make a run and improve their offensive efficiency.
Illinois Fighting Illini- Illinois ranks 15th in offensive efficiency and 41st on the defensive end. They have dealt with injury and illness all season long, but seem to be healthier now. Kasparas Jakucionis can keep the offense running well, but they need to reach a new level on defense if they want to win a title.
St. John’s Red Storm- St. John’s is the most efficient defensive team in the country. Rick Pitino has the team bought-in, but they don’t shoot well and their offensive efficiency suffers. They rank 65th in offensive efficiency. The Red Storm can win a few games, but likely don’t have the offense to win six games.
Kentucky Wildcats- Kentucky has had a great offense under new coach Mark Pope, ranking eighth in offensive efficiency. Their defense has lagged behind, as they rank 56th on that end. The Wildcats also have injuries they are dealing with, so a long tournament run is not likely in the cards.
Purdue Boilermakers- Purdue ranks seventh in offensive efficiency, but 63rd in defensive efficiency. They have struggled on defense without the presence of Zach Edey in the middle. Their guards can also have trouble staying attached to their matchups. A Final Four may be out of reach for Purdue.
Memphis Tigers- Memphis was overseeded by quite a bit by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. They rank 72nd in offensive efficiency and 40th on defense. Starting point guard Tyrese Hunter may be out for the tournament as well, making things even more difficult for them.
Michigan Wolverines- Dusty May has done a great job in year one, with Michigan ranking 47th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. That isn’t quite good enough to win it all and what makes it worse is their trouble with turnovers.
Oregon Ducks- Oregon ranks 39th in offensive efficiency and 31st in defensive efficiency. While improving one metric to fit into the criteria can happen, Oregon is unlikely to improve both their offense and defense to be good enough to win a championship.
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