week six DFS don'ts

Week six DFS don’ts: Report Card

An interesting trend is starting to develop. It seems as though every three weeks I’m due for a dip in DFS profitability. Thus far, I’ve only failed to profit in weeks three and six. Does that mean I should just not play in weeks nine, twelve and fifteen? Of course not, if there’s a Sunday slate, I’ll play it. Let’s wrap up week six DFS don’ts with the dreaded report card.

Quarterback: 1/3

As some of you might have noticed, no week six DFS don’ts piece about quarterbacks. Sorry about that, won’t happen again. Anyways, Tom Brady came up just short of doubling his value against the Jets and Kevin Hogan was a huge disappointment. Thankfully, Kirk Cousins redeemed me by finishing as the top fantasy quarterback this weekend.

Running Back: 4/6

Not a bad week at the running back position. Leonard Fournette and Mark Ingram were great for my cash game lineups. Unfortunately, the Denver Broncos didn’t show up and that cost me huge with C.J. Andersen. As far as my week six DFS don’ts at this position, Carlos Hyde proved me wrong. I’m glad to see he’s reestablished himself as the lead back even if it was at my expense. Both Ameer Abdullah and Elijah McGuire failed miserably to double their value.

Wide Receiver: 2/5

I don’t count players who end up being out, so, I’m not counting DeVante Parker as part of my report card. DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Hogan shockingly didn’t produce double their value. I know DeSean Jackson didn’t technically double his value; however, I’m counting this as a win since he still managed to produce with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brandin Cooks came so close to proving me wrong, whereas Demaryius Thomas blew me away with 10 catches for over 130 yards.

Tight End: 1/4

Martellus Bennett was an easy pick. If you couldn’t tell a week ago, you can now. He doesn’t produce in this offense. Darren Fells, despite a lack of targets, still managed to produce. He’s officially supplanted Eric Ebron and is a viable DFS option moving forward. Ryan Griffin and AJ Derby were also bad calls despite great matchups.

Kicker: 2/2

At least I’m continuing to pick this position correctly. Aaron Rodgers injury aside, I didn’t like Mason Crosby going into this week. However, I loved Wil Lutz this week and he more than doubled his value.

Defense: 1/2

I will apologize for everyone who listened to the Suck My DFS Podcast and picked Denver as their defense. They were incredibly disappointing. Thankfully, Jacksonville laid an egg at home as I predicted.

Overall Score: 11/22

50% isn’t great, but, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation between who I pick and how much money I win. The weeks I’ve won the most money, I haven’t been great on individual player picks, and vice versa. The best thing about this game is that we can quickly move on to the next week. Come back tomorrow for which kicker and defense you should avoid in week seven.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Grizzly Bear Blues

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

“From Our Haus to Yours”

 

week six DFS don'ts

Week six DFS don’ts: Wide receiver

My week five was one to forget in terms of my wide receiver predictions. Yes, there were obvious calls I could have made, but I wanted to take some risks. I’ll be doing the same this week. However, I’ll try to make these more calculated. Let’s find out which players are my wide receiver edition of week six DFS don’ts.

Brandin Cooks: FanDuel Price $7,900

This pains me to say because I love Brandin Cooks. I was so excited when I found out he was traded to New England. However, there are problems with Cooks that emerged in last Thursday’s game against the Buccaneers.

As we all know, Rob Gronkowski was inactive in last week’s game. With Gronk out, we saw a shift towards the pass catching running backs and Danny Amendola. Cooks did see a season-high in targets, but it still failed to reach double digits. It’s clear that Chris Hogan is the number one receiving option in this offense going forward.

Offensive role aside, Cooks does not have a favorable matchup this week. Yes, I know they are playing the Jets. However, I’m referring to Cooks’ individual matchup versus Morris Claiborne. Claiborne has been deployed in shadow coverage every week since week two. According to Pro Football Focus, Claiborne has only been targeted 14 times since week two, allowing nine total catches for 95 yards.

We also have a track record of teams choosing to shadow Cooks over Hogan. In week four, James Bradberry shadowed Brandin Cooks on over 65 percent of the snaps. Bradberry was targeted six times, only surrendering three catches for 38 yards. Teams clearly see Cooks as the most talented wide receiver and are choosing to focus on him as opposed to Hogan or Amendola. If you want DFS shares of the Patriots, pivot to another receiver this week.

Demaryius Thomas: Fanduel price $6,800

week six DFS don'ts: wide receiver

Will Demaryius Thomas find a way to reach the end zone for the first time all season against the tough Giants secondary? (Photo: Denver Post)

2017 has been so disappointing thus far for Demaryius Thomas. Denver allocated resources in the offseason to build the offensive line and support Trevor Siemian, and it hasn’t translated to production for Thomas.

Granted, he’s had a solid floor in terms of point production. However, he failed miserably in a great matchup versus Oakland in week four. Thomas was only able to turn five targets into one catch for 11 yards.

This week’s matchup does not bode well for Thomas, or any Denver wide receiver. While the Giants are depleted on offense, they still have one of the best secondaries in the league. Another strike against Thomas is the 12-point spread.

This kind of spread indicates that the game will be over in the third quarter, or even by halftime. Meaning, the Broncos will look to sit on their lead and fee C.J. Anderson against a below average run defense. Consider other options in Thomas’ price range, as his matchup and role have landed him on my week six DFS don’ts.

DeVante Parker: FanDuel Price $6,000

You can attribute Parker’s place on this list to Jay Cutler. It’s embarrassing how poorly he played against a bad Titans defense. How on earth does a starting NFL quarterback not throw for 100 yards in a game in which they play all four quarters? Cutler failed to complete 50 percent of his passes, including one interception. His overall body language was disheartening and his interest in the game looked minimal. I don’t think anyone on the Dolphins offense has a chance to produce as long as Cutler remains the quarterback.

Parker’s health is also uncertain, as his status for Sunday’s game is questionable. Not all injuries are equal. Parker left the game with an ankle injury which can linger if not addressed immediately. If you really want to play Parker this week, keep checking practice reports and his official status as the week continues. Parker joins Thomas and Cooks on my week six DFS don’ts.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Boston Globe

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link on our Podcast page.

“From Our Haus to Yours”

week six DFS don'ts

Week six DFS don’ts: Running Back

Week six looks to be straightforward when it comes to the running back position. None of the top tier players have unfavorable matchups and most are fairly priced. So, the running back edition of week six DFS don’ts will focus on lower priced running backs who we have previously relied on.

Carlos Hyde: FanDuel Price $6,700

Like most DFS players, we were left in utter dismay looking at Carlos Hyde’s final stat line. Hyde was in a favorable matchup with a favorable projected game flow, and he still came up small. Reportedly, Kyle Shanahan laughingly claimed the “hot hand” approach when it came to Hyde’s snap count. The hot hand only works when you have to equally talented players…Anyone can see that Carlos Hyde is vastly more talented than Matt Breida.

Last week’s debacle aside, Hyde’s matchup against the Washington Redskins is one of the worst of the weekend. Washington has quietly assembled one of the leagues best front sevens, regardless of scheme. Currently, the Redskins are allowing 88.8 rushing yards per game on average. That includes games versus two of the top four rushing leaders, Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley. Conversely, the 49ers are 19th in terms of rushing yards per game and are double digit underdogs this weekend.

The game flow will likely dictate a lot of throwing from Brian Hoyer. If that’s the case, we could see much more Matt Breida than we’d like. I always hesitate to start a running back who is more than a six point underdog, especially on the road. There are too many arrows pointing out of Hyde’s favor, as he’s on my week six DFS don’ts.

Ameer Abdullah: FanDuel Price $6,400

week six DFS don'ts

Should Ameer Abdullah’s role in the Detroit backfield keep us from playing him on our DFS lineups against New Orleans? (Courtesy of; Pride of Detroit)

In all fairness, Ameer Abdullah is having a good season. He’s staying healthy and is proving that he can shoulder a substantial workload. The only problem is, the Lions are severely limiting his upside with Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner.

Abdullah is known as a between the 20’s type of running back. He gets to play on first and second down and is the dominant ball carrier in terms of carries. However, on third down, or in games where the Lions are trailing, Theo Riddick cuts into Abdullah’s playing time. Also, Zach Zenner will vulture goal line opportunities from Abdullah, as we saw last week versus Carolina.

This weekend’s matchup versus the Saints does not bode well for Abdullah. The Saints in New Orleans are always a threat to score thirty points. If the Saints jump out to an early lead, Riddick will start to see more snaps. Also, the Saints are giving up nine catches per game to the running back position. I’d say that both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are safer plays than Abdullah this week because of game flow, and role.

Elijah McGuire: FanDuel Price $5,700

Do I really need to explain? The New England Patriots have a different approach to offense than most teams. New England and Tom Brady are notorious for throwing the ball when they are double digit favorites. The Patriots hardly ever choose to sit on a lead and revert to running the clock out.

I understand New England’s defense is bad, and McGuire will likely be the only back in this offense, but the Jets offense cannot keep pace when it comes to scoring. Josh McCown will have to resort to throwing the football in the second half or late second quarter.

McGuire is in a similar situation to Carlos Hyde, I cannot in good conscience play a running back who is a double digit underdog. I like my running backs on the favored teams, obviously, so they will get fourth quarter carries with a lead. McGuire joins Carlos Hyde and Ameer Abdullah on my week six DFS don’ts.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Bleacher Report

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link on our Podcast page.

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

“From Our Haus to Yours”

week 6 DFS don'ts

Week 6 DFS don’ts: tight end

This could be the most frustrating position in all of fantasy football. If you’re in a seasonal league, you’re just looking at any tight end who can get you more than zero points. If you’re a DFS degenerate like myself, you’re torn every week between paying up for Zach Ertz, or making a value play like Ryan Griffin. I can’t confidently tell you who will lead the position in scoring this weekend. However, I can tell you which players to fade in the tight end edition of week 6 DFS don’ts.

Martellus Bennett: FanDuel Price $5,500

Have we not learned our lesson? It doesn’t matter who the tight end is; the Green Bay offense doesn’t feature tight ends. What happened when Randall Cobb was inactive against Cincinnati? Conventional wisdom says they would allocate targets to the large, athletic tight end in the middle of the field. Instead, Geronimo Allison had twice as many targets Bennett.

It’s clear this offense prioritizes wide receivers. There’s a reason that Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are first and second in touchdowns since 2016. It took Nelson and Cobb getting hurt against Atlanta to see double-digit targets. Bennett still only managed to turn 11 targets into five catches for 47 yards.

Offensive role aside, Bennett has an awful individual matchup this Sunday against Harrison Smith. While Smith doesn’t get national media coverage, he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL. Currently, Pro Football Focus has Smith ranked as the sixth best safety. Please, do yourself a favor, and avoid Martellus Bennett this weekend. There are better options available.

Darren Fells: FanDuel Price $4,900

week 6 DFS don'ts

Darren Fells has done nothing but take advantage of the opportunities he’s been given this season. (Photo from Washington Times).

If you’ve been following this series, or listening to the Suck My DFS Podcast, my disdain for Eric Ebron is well documented. It brought me pure joy to watch him drop a touchdown pass, and then see Darren Fells catch two. However, joy does not equate to DFS viability.

Fells has no doubt been improving this season. Every game, his role becomes more solidified. He even managed to get more snaps than Ebron on Sunday against the Panthers. But, let’s calm down. The workload simply isn’t there.

Yes, Fells scored twice, but he was only targeted twice. That means he maxed out his potential production, and that only equates to 15 points. Considering how awful this position is, that’s great. However, Fells’ floor is way to low to even consider as a DFS option. I’ll be going elsewhere this week as Fells joins Bennett on my week 6 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Sports Illustrated

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Thursday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link on our Podcast page.

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

“From Our Haus to Yours”

week six DFS don'ts

Week six DFS don’ts: Kicker and Defense

While choosing a kicker and defense can seem mundane and pointless, those positions can be the difference between winning and losing. When I make lineups, I have the same tight end, kicker, and defense. It helps keep my lineups consistent in terms of scoring and structure. Thankfully, I had the Dolphins defense and Harrison Butker on every single cash and tournament lineup in week five. So, let’s find out who you should avoid in this special teams edition of week six DFS don’ts

Mason Crosby: FanDuel Price $4,800

This might be the first and last time I every break down the long snapper and holder for any team ever. However, it was talked about at nauseam during the game. The Packers had a new long snapper and holder entering their contest with the Dallas Cowboys. I’m a believer that a professional kicker should make the extra point with few exceptions. Clearly, those new players had a negative impact on Mason Crosby.

Personnel aside, the opportunities will be limited this weekend. The Minnesota Vikings at home have played incredibly well as a defensively. The Packers showed early that they will allow pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and, the Vikings have a superior unit to the Cowboys at almost every level. I don’t see Crosby paying off on his $4,800 price tag. And as always, I believe there are much better options that are cheaper and in a better situation. Green Bay and their special teams personnel have landed Crosby on my week six DFS don’ts list.

Jacksonville Jaguars: FanDuel Price $4,900

week six DFS don'ts

The Jaguars defense proved they are an elite unit with their performance against the Steelers on the road last Sunday (Courtesy of; Jaguars.com)

Here is my weekly public service announcement about not chasing points. The Jacksonville Jaguars did what most NFL teams fail to do, stick to their identity. Despite the score, the Jaguars continued to run the ball and trust their defense.

Frustration aside, they did not abandon their offensive identity. Sadly, the Steelers resorted to throwing the ball 55 times and played right into the strength of the Jaguars defense. It was the perfect situation for Jacksonville.

That will not happen again this weekend. While I still have doubts about the Rams offense, they have established an identity, and they stick to it. Todd Gurley had his season-low in total touches with 15. This was the second time this season Gurley had less than 20 total touches.

Coincidentally, it led to their second loss of the season. The Rams will return to featuring Gurley this weekend and take the Jaguars’ corners out of the game by distributing the ball in between the hashes.

It’s entirely possible the Jaguars score 11 or 12 points. And, if those are your expectations, then roster them. Just please, do not expect them to record another five turnovers and two touchdowns on defense this weekend.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of On Milwaukee

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link on our Podcast page.

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

“From Our Haus to Yours”

The Third and The Don NFL Picks Week Six

Cecil Walker and Joe DiTullio (The Third and The Don) make their picks for week six of the NFL season.

Away Team Home Team Joe Cecil
Denver Broncos San Diego Chargers Broncos Chargers
San Francisco 49ers Buffalo Bills Bills Bills
Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins Eagles Eagles
Cleveland Browns Tennessee Titans Titans Titans
Baltimore Ravens New York Giants Giants Giants
Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints Panthers Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars Chicago Bears Jags Jags
Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders Chiefs Raiders
Los Angeles Rams Detroit Lions Lions Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers Miami Dolphins Steelers Steelers
Atlanta Falcons Seattle Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Cincinnati Bengals New England Patriots Pats Pats
Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers Cowboys Packers
Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans Texans Colts
New York Jets Arizona Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals
Season Total 40 38