week three DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Report Card

With the first Sunday in the books, it’s time to review week one and my predictions. I’ll be reviewing my picks from last week’s DFS Dont’s article series, as well as the picks I made on the Suck My DFS Podcast. Picks aside, I started off the year right by finishing in the money in all 36 of my FanDuel contests. Without further adieu, here is the report card edition of my week one DFS Dont’s.

Quarterback: 1/5

Last week, I stated that Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Stafford should stay off your DFS lineups. I was feeling great about my Stafford prediction after the first quarter, but that feeling quickly subsided. Stafford finished with 28.08 points. Roethlisberger didn’t set the world on fire, but I’ll chalk his 16.72 points up as a loss for me.

On the Suck My DFS Podcast, I chose three quarterbacks I liked in cash games and GPP’s: Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Brian Hoyer. Both Wilson and Hoyer scored single digit points. On the bright side, Wilson didn’t cost me in my cash games. Thankfully, Carson Wentz paid dividends on his $7,100 price tag, as he scored 19.88 points.

I ended up playing three quarterbacks in my cash lineups: Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. I couldn’t find a good combination for my GPP contests, so I decided to pull my money out this week and just play cash games. I’m not regretting that decision.

Running Back: 3/6

In my running back DFS Dont’s piece, I advised that you stay away from Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Marshawn Lynch. I had know idea the Jacksonville Jaguars would dominate the Houston Texans in such dramatic fashion. I look forward to cashing in on Fournette in the future as he scored 19.9 points in his debut. Elliott’s $8,700 price tag isn’t usually worth 16.5 points; however, I’ll mark it as a loss since that’s much better than how David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell produced. I told you to stay away from Lynch until we know exactly how his workload will look, hopefully you did, as he scored a whopping 9.7 points.

On the podcast, I gushed over LeSean McCoy and Todd Gurley. They scored 18.4 and 18.1 points each. Sadly, I also loved Bilal Powell, who produced a disappointing single digit performance. Once again, I lucked out with my Powell prediction since I didn’t partake in any GPP contests in week one.

Wide Receiver: 1/5

My week one DFS Dont’s at this position included Dez Bryant, Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry. I was dead on about Bryant and his personal match up against Janoris Jenkins, as he scored a disappointing 5.3 points. However, I was totally wrong about Golden Tate. He, unlike Dez, found a way to overcome a tough match up and produced 16.4 points. Jarvis Landry had an unexpected bye, so I won’t be counting that prediction at all.

In my podcast picks, I pounded the table on AJ Green, Doug Baldwin and Martavis Bryant. I was wrong on all three as they severely under produced.

Tight End: 3/5

Eric Ebron was awful, so that gives me a mark in the win column. Yet again, my other prediction was set to play in the rescheduled Miami vs Tampa Bay game, so throw out O.J. Howard this week.

The tight ends I liked were Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Jack Dolye and Zach Miller. Walker and Ertz finished in the top six among tight ends in week one. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough volume for Doyle or Miller to get a chance to be productive or else they would have hit as well. I’ll take the two losses on Doyle and Miller.

Kicker: 2/2

It’s pretty straight forward, stop paying up for kickers. The position is way too dependent on coaching decisions, weather and offensive competency. Nine kickers scored double digit points in week one, and Justin Tucker was not one of them.

On the other hand, my podcast pick clicked, Ryan Succop. It wasn’t rocket science. Here’s the criteria for which I pick my kicker. Is he less than $4,800? Is he at home? Is he favored? Is the weather good? Succop met all of these requirements.

Defense: 2/4

In my first ever DFS Dont’s piece, I made the case not to play the Pittsburgh or Buffalo defense. Neither one of them paid off like most had hoped, but, neither imploded like I had hoped. Given your defense starts with 10 points, I’ll say I was wrong about the Steelers, since they scored 12, and was right about the Bills, since they only scored nine.

We crushed our defensive picks to click. Both Will and I were all in on Los Angeles in week one and they did not disappoint. On the other hand, I offered the Arizona defense as a potential GPP pivot from the Rams, and they only scored eight points.

Week One DFS Dont’s Report Card: 12/27

On a percentage basis, I was not good. I only connected on 44% of my picks in week one. By my standards, and at almost any academic institution, 44% is a failure. Now, no one gets 100% of their predictions right, but, I need to operate in the 60-70 percentile to feel like it was a good week. You can check out all of my week one DFS Dont’s articles here. We’ll start with week two tomorrow as we break down what kicker and defenses you should avoid.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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week one DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Quarterback

The hardest position to play in sports is surprisingly one of the easiest positions to pick in DFS. Sure, you could pay up for Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and lock in 20 points. Or, you could go with cheaper options like a Philip Rivers or Jameis Winston and distribute that salary elsewhere. Let’s examine who you should leave off your lineup in our quarterback addition of week one DFS Dont’s.

Ben Roethlisberger: FanDuel Price $8,200

Yes, you’re about to read another piece about Ben Roethlisberger’s home/road splits. It’s real people, this trend dates all the way back to the 2014 season.

week one DFS Dont's: quarterback

As you can see, his regression has been incremental over time. Each year the dropoff gets more disparaging and therefore cannot be discounted. Now, do not take these stats as gospel. Roethlisberger could easily torch the Browns this weekend, but he won’t be doing it on my roster.

The large spread in favor of Pittsburgh is a great indicator of running back production. Meaning, if you choose to roster him, Roethlisberger may only produce for 2.5 or three quarters if they blow out the Browns. I don’t know about you, but I’m not playing the third-most expensive quarterback on the main slate who has a history of mediocre play on the road.

Apart from his road issues, Roethlisberger is perennially one of the highest injury risks at his position. He routinely misses games at this stage of his career. I’m not saying don’t ever play him on the road, but don’t play him at his current price. If you really want to pay up at quarterback, take Aaron Rodgers for $100 more, or, Russell Wilson for $200 less. Like most players, Roethlisberger’s price and circumstances land him on my week one DFS Dont’s.

Matt Stafford: Fandule Price $7,600

If you’ve been reading this series regularly, you know I hate the Lions this week. It’s more about their matchup than the individual player. I generally like Stafford. He plays on a team with no discernible run game and has above average receivers. However, the Arizona Cardinals defense is not one to take lightly.

week one DFS Dont's: quarterback

I don’t like to put too much stock in what a team or unit did last year. But, when that unit returns almost their entire starting unit, I do. Here’s what I don’t like, the Cardinals were incredibly stingy in yards allowed. Detroit uses their pass game to run the ball. Stafford throws short, precise passes as a substitute for a 3-yard run. Obviously, that will limit the amount of sack opportunities for this defense. Conversely, if they refuse to stretch the field, it won’t matter if they record sacks. They’ll simply make the Lions punt after three 3-yard passes.

Looking beyond Stafford, where do the Lions have an offensive advantage? Patrick Peterson vs. Marvin Jones, I’ll take Peterson. Tyrann Matheiu vs. Golden Tate in the slot, I’ll take Mathieu. Deone Buchanon vs. Eric Ebron, give me Buchanon. Maybe they have an edge with Theo Riddick out of the backfield, but, that means short precise passes. They won’t be able to stretch the field. Thus, Stafford joins Roethlisberger on my week one DFS Dont’s.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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week 1 DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Running Backs

Last year, we experienced a resurgence at the running back position. Entering the 2016 season, the zero running back theory was a wildly popular draft strategy. However, after incredible performances by David Johnson,  Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy and a great rookie campaign by Ezekiel Elliott, the position is now the focus of both seasonal and daily fantasy. Week one provides us with some interesting options at the running back position. But who among the top players will land on my week one DFS Dont’s list?

Ezekiel Elliott: FanDuel Price $8,700

week 1 DFS Dont's

Will Ezekiel Elliott take his offseason frustrations out on the New York Giants this Sunday? (Photo Courtesy of; Zimbio)

Now that we have word on Elliott’s status for Sunday’s game, we can talk about his DFS prospects. I’m incredibly torn on Elliott. The domestic violence case could hang over his head and cause him to abandon his patience against the Giants. Or, he could run wild against this vaunted defense.

Neither result would surprise me. However, I’m leaning towards Elliott under performing.

As I outlined in yesterday’s week one DFS Dont’s, the Giants are loaded on defense. There are multiple All-Pros in the defensive line and the secondary. The Cowboys offensive line is capable of overcoming this challenging front.

However, the Cowboys have lost a starting tackle and guard from last year’s unit. This wouldn’t normally concern me, but this will be the unit’s first time playing together extensively.

To be honest, there isn’t a lot of statistical proof for my assertion to fade Elliott this week. I’m operating totally on gut feeling and preference.

At his price, I’d rather have LeSean McCoy or Devonta Freeman for $200 and $400 less respectively. Both of those players also have a more favorable matchup than Elliott, and thus, puts Elliott on my week one DFS Dont’s.

Leonard Fournette: FanDuel Price $7,100

Leonard Fournette was one of the most exciting players in recent memory during his time at LSU. His rare combination of size, speed and athleticism has drawn comparisons to Adrian Peterson. Regardless of his incredible talent, Fournette will not score more than 12 points in week 1 against the Texans.

Like most players on my week one DFS Dont’s list, my concerns are with the situation surrounding the player, rather than the player himself. This Jaguars offensive line is not good. It’s that simple.

They have potential to develop into an average unit. However, the Jaguars just switched to a power run scheme this offseason. It takes time and opportunity for an offensive line to develop chemistry. The Jaguars will struggle initially adjusting to this new scheme. The sudden retirement of Branden Albert also forces Cam Robinson to start at left tackle, which is a big question mark.

Apart from Fournette’s offensive line, his own status is in question. He’s already developed a lingering foot injury that kept him out of three preseason games. The Jaguars want to use Fournette, but don’t want to destroy their first-round investment.

Expect Fournette to have a reduced workload in week one. He’ll be lucky to register 20 carries while sharing reps with Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon. His price is inflated beyond his value, so, he makes my week one DFS Dont’s list.

Marshawn Lynch: FanDuel Price $6,900

The Oakland Raiders have assembled one of the best offenses in the NFL. Acquiring Marshawn Lynch was one of the biggest stories of the offseason. Despite all the praise Lynch has been receiving, I’m gonna pass on him this week.

Some are operating under the notion that Lynch will be getting the same workload he saw in Seattle. That could not be further from the truth.

The Raiders are not going to change the way they operate their offense. Derek Carr proved last year he is a franchise quarterback and was given the contract to prove it. Weapons like Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Jared Cook, along with an incredible offensive line, will cause the Raiders to rely on moving the ball through the air.

I almost forgot to mention this, but in case you didn’t know, Lynch took an entire year off from Football! You really expect him to pick up right where he left off in Seattle after a year on the couch consuming all the Skittles within 100 square miles? That might’ve been too much, but the idea that he will get 20-plus carries, 75 rushing yards and a touchdown this week is unrealistic.

Apart from his situation, I don’t like his price. I’d much rather pay up for a Todd Gurley or DeMarco Murray, or go $100 cheaper and roster Carlos Hyde.

I could see Lynch being a slam dunk later in the season. However, I want to see his snap rate and workload before investing. For these reasons, Marshawn Lynch is the final running back on my week one DFS Dont’s list.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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week one DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Wide Receivers

NFL wide receivers are some of the most popular players among fans. Players like Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown and Julio Jones have massive followings and are revered for their explosiveness and raw talent. However, these three players are always among the most expensive DFS options every week. Are they worth their high price, or will one of these talents end up on my week one DFS Dont’s?

Dez Bryant – FanDuel Price $7,800

There are plenty of positives that point to playing Dez Bryant in week one. Bryant was able to spend an entire off season working with Prescott and developing more chemistry with the young quarterback. Also, Bryant is entering this season with his health in tact without any nagging injuries.

week one DFS Dont's

Dez Bryant’s talent is undeniable, but will it be enough to produce against one of the stingiest secondaries in the NFL? (Photo Courtesy of; Zimbio.com)

What doesn’t have me liking Bryant this week is the match up. This Giants defense is absolutely suffocating. This unit is headlined by multiple first and second team All-Pro players. Bryant will have to face Janoris Jenkins, Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie and Landon Collins on Sunday night. Apart from a great secondary, the Giants defensive line will cause problems for Prescott and company.

One could argue that Bryant is talented enough to overcome a touch match up, and, you’d be correct. However, talent alone is not the most important factor in winning tough 1 on 1 battles. Skill and precision are more important. Sadly, Dez has a limited route tree. This claim has been well documented by NFL greats like Drew Pearson and Cris Carter. Creating separation at the top of routes and accelerating out of breaks is something Dez is not elite at, despite his incredible talent.

Match up aside, Bryant’s history against this team is not great. Last year, Bryant turned 14 total targets into two receptions, 18 yards, and zero touchdowns. I’m not saying this trend will continue in 2017. But, I’m not willing to take a chance in week one given Bryant’s $7,800 price tag. There are plenty of better options with similar price and production on this slate. It’s possible he overcomes this tough match up and is “productive”, but I don’t see him exceeding 6 catches for 50 or more yards. Thus, he winds up on my week one DFS Dont’s.

Golden Tate – Fanduel Price $6,900

At this point, we know exactly who Golden Tate is. He’s a great possession first wide receiver who is a PPR monster with above average run after the catch ability. But, we also know that Tate has trouble reaching the end zone on a consistent basis. For this reason, he is usually a wide receiver three among my DFS rosters. The only problem is he’s being priced as a solid number two.

week one DFS Dont's

Golden Tate has established himself as a valuable piece of this Lions’ passing game. (Photo Courtesy of; ESPN Insider)

Tate’s placement on my week one DFS Dont’s is more about his match up and value. Yesterday I outlined how incredible the Cardinals defense was against tight ends. The statistics against wide receivers are not as impressive; however, Tate will have to face Patrick Peterson or Tyrann Mathieu for about half the game. Those two players, along with the versatile Deone Buchanon, will no doubt have Tate on their radar for Sunday’s game.

Let’s say Tate still finds a way to be “productive” by recording at least eight catches for 70 yards despite this unfavorable match up. Well, you just paid close to $7,000 for at best 11 points when you could have chosen Alshon Jefferey for $100 more, or Michael Crabtree as the exact same price! Jeffery has shown he is the primary receiving target for Carson Wentz this preseason, and, Crabtree has proven to be a red zone machine. Not to mention, Brandon Marshall and Davante Adams are both $100 cheaper with a better match up, or a better quarterback respectively.

Jarvis Landry – Fanduel Price $6,400

I feel sorry for Jarvis Landry. No other wide receiver has fallen so far out of favor for almost no reason. The preseason injury to Ryan Tannehill and subsequent signing of Jay Cutler has destroyed Landry’s value. He has proved to be a force when operating in the middle of the field. However, Cutler prefers throwing down the field to large-body receivers, i.e. DeVante Parker.

I’m not saying Landry is unplayable the rest of the season. I’m saying that right now, I prefer Parker, who happens to be $100 cheaper and has more touchdown upside. Now, this could change depending on the weekly match up or health. The quickest way Landry becomes more appealing is if his price drops to reflect his number two status. If he eventually becomes $6,100 or lower, he will no doubt find his way on to my cash games lineups.

Finally, there seem to be other circumstances in play here. Rumors have been swirling of a potential domestic violence allegation against Landry. Of course, these are just rumors. But, when you combine this allegation with the fact that he does not have a long-term deal inked, and the emerging trade talks, it makes me seriously question how much the Dolphins want him. I hope Landry’s situation becomes more clear. Sadly, talent ins’t enough to steer clear of my week one DFS Dont’s. Obviously, this analysis was crafted before the cancellation of this week’s Miami and Tampa Bay game. So technically, all players in that game are on my week one DFS Dont’s list.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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week one DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Tight Ends

Now that the Kicker and Defense is out of the way, let’s start looking at real Football players. Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in NFL DFS. The drop off from top tier players like Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce to the next is dramatic. I look for value at this position. Specifically, I want players with medium/low salaries that can produce double digit points. Without further delay, let’s examine which tight ends are part of my week one DFS dont’s.

Eric Ebron – Fanduel Price $5,500

2016 could not have been more frustrating for season-long owners of Eric Ebron. Yet again, he failed to reach one thousand yards receiving. And, he had one more touchdown reception than I did last year. Not to mention, Ebron has a propensity for getting and staying injured.

On the other hand, there will be a plethora of red zone targets up for grabs with Anquan Boldin’s departure. I think he will no doubt have more than one touchdown this season and more than 711 yards receiving. However, his match up with the vaunted Cardinals secondary is a huge problem.

In 2016, the Cardinals secondary was elite against tight ends. Through their first eight games, the Cardinals never surrendered more than five catches and 53 yards receiving. Not to mention, they allowed zero receiving touchdowns to tight ends. They even pitched a complete game shutout against the Jets in week six. Meaning, they didn’t allow a single tight end to register a stat.

week one DFS Dont's

Will the Cardinals’ defense shut down Eric Ebron and justify his placement on my week one DFS Dont’s list?

I know Ebron is talented. I know he plays in an offense that throws the ball at least 30 times a game. But, I have no confidence that he will produce against this elite unit, or, that he’ll even be healthy enough to play the whole game. There are plenty more attractive options at tight end this week. Given his situation, Eric Ebron was the easiest member of my week one DFS Dont’s among any position.

OJ Howard – Fanduel Price $5,400

The hype around OJ Howard astounds me. Have we already forgotten that Cameron Brate, the Buccaneers starting tight end, tied for leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns among tight ends? Yes, I know that Hunter Henry, a backup rookie tight end, was who he tied with. However, this situation is different.

week one DFS Dont's

There’s no denying OJ Howard’s talent, but will the opportunities be there in week one for him to make a DFS impact? (Photo Courtesy of; Bucs Report)

Antonio Gates has clearly lost a step or two. This gave Henry the opportunity to get on the field and demand targets. Brate on the other hand is a young player at his position and has a tremendous red zone chemistry with Jameis Winston. I do believe at some point this year Howard overtakes Brate, but not the first week of the season.

Not only is Howard not the starting tight end, he would at best be the third receiving option if he was. Mike Evans led the NFL in targets last season and DeSean Jackson wasn’t brought in to be a decoy on half the snaps.

Apart from Howard’s current situation, rookie tight ends historically don’t start strong and rarely score 100 non-PPR points in a season. By non-PPR standards, the three best rookie seasons in NFL history by tight ends are Rob Gronkowski in 2010 (114 points), Cam Cleeland in 1998 (104 points), and Jeremy Shockey in 2002 (102 points).

Two of those three players will go to the Hall of Fame at their positions and for the record, only Cleeland, who I know you’ve never heard of before, scored double digit points in his rookie debut. If you want to compete in GPP’s or large tournaments, you’ll need your tight end to score double digit points.

If I haven’t made a strong enough case yet, this is sure to convince you. OJ Howard, the backup tight end, is $200 more expensive than the starter Cameron Brate! You are literally throwing away money for less production if you decide to roster OJ Howard. It only makes sense that Howard will go off now that I’ve taken such a strong stance, but the evidence suggests he belongs on my week one DFS Dont’s.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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Week One DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Kickers and D/ST

After what seems like an eternity, week one is finally upon us. With a new season comes the opportunity to cash in on NFL daily fantasy. This week’s Sunday slate is full of great upside and terrible floors, depending on where you look. For now, let’s start by identifying the kickers and defenses on our week one DFS dont’s. So, welcome to the first installment of the season-long series, DFS dont’s.

Justin Tucker: FanDuel Price $5,000

week one DFS Dont's: kickers d/st

Justin Tucker’s production is likely to suffer with as the Ravens’ offense is injury stricken (Photo Courtesy of; Press Box Online).

What? How is one of the most consistent kickers in NFL history part of my week one DFS dont’s? I’m glad you asked. The following factors will keep Justin Tucker off all my DFS lineups this week: price, ownership percentage and the Ravens’ offense.

$5,000 is a lot to spend on a kicker. A difference of $500 or $300 may not seem like much. However, that means getting the chance to upgrade your second running back or third wide receiver. For example, a $300 difference means playing Terrelle Pryor instead of Randall Cobb. And, a $500 difference means playing Carlos Hyde over Eddie Lacy or Bilal Powell. I’d rather allocate resources at those positions as opposed to my kicker, even if his name is Justin Tucker.

Price aside, Tucker will no doubt be one of the more popular plays at the kicker position, and it makes sense. Tucker can score in the high teens and low 20’s any given week. I just don’t think it’s happening in week one.

If you’re trying to win a GPP, it would be smart to fade Tucker. That way, if he slightly underperforms, you won’t be suffering with the rest of the field who decided to pay up for a kicker. And, if he does over produce, those players will be counting on big games from marginal players at other positions.

The final reason Tucker is included in my week one DFS dont’s is the offense he’s tied to. The offensive outlook of the Ravens is bleak. They are riddled with injuries, including Joe Flaccco. And if Ryan Mallet has to play, he will plummet the value of every fantasy asset on this team, including Justin Tucker.

Not to mention, they start the year against the Bengals, who are intimately familiar with the Ravens’ offensive scheme. Overall, opportunities will not be there for Tucker. Sure, he could connect from 60 yards and two extra points, but I won’t take that risk with all of the offensive uncertainty in Baltimore.

Pittsburgh Steelers: FanDuel Price $4,800

Yes, I know the Steelers are playing the Cleveland Browns in week one. And yes, I know the Steelers’ defense scored 22 points last year when playing at Cleveland, however, this will not happen again. For one, this was the only game last year that Pittsburgh’s defense scored a defensive touchdown. Meaning, it was a total fluke. Also, they recorded eight sacks in that same game.

Cleveland has quietly assembled one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Joe Thomas anchors an offensive line that will look to protect their rookie quarterback by running the football. Thomas, combined with the acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler, will be an elite offensive line. Thus, Cleveland will limit interceptions and sack opportunities for the Pittsburgh defense.

There is also another factor to consider. Even a marginal fantasy football player knows how mediocre Ben Roethlisberger has been on the road in the past three seasons. This prolonged slump will allow Cleveland to stay committed to the run game. A steady dose of Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. will keep the defense on the field and their pass rushers from causing problems.

Aside from perception not equating to reality, their price tag is too high. The Steelers are the third-most expensive defense on the Sunday slate behind Houston, a truly elite unit, and Carolina, who play the 49ers. There is no way I’m paying $4,800 for a mediocre defense, on the road, against a much improved Cleveland Browns team.

There are multiple defenses at the $4,600 price with better situations that I’ll be considering week one. For these reasons, the Steelers defense will absolutely underperform, thus claiming a spot on my week one DFS dont’s.

Buffalo Bills: FanDuel Price $4,700

Streaming average defenses against poor offenses is a popular season-long fantasy strategy. However, why should I choose a defense that isn’t good even though they are playing a bad offense? That’s why I love DFS. I don’t have to do anything I don’t feel 100 percent confident about. The Bills, like the Steelers, wind up on my week one DFS dont’s.

I understand that Bills are playing the Jets, however, the Bills are not a good defense. They are more attractive to me than Pittsburgh this week because of the slightly reduced price point and the fact that they are playing at home.

Last season, the Bills’ defense scored double digit points only four times. They also scored four points or less a staggering six times, including a negative four and a zero.

Their defensive coordinator, Leslie Frazier, and his 4-3 cover 2 scheme is archaic. This scheme is notorious for giving up big plays. Since 2013, as a defensive coordinator or head coach, his defenses never finished top ten in the following categories: points against, takeaways, rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed.

Even if the Bills force the Jets into passing the entire second half, they won’t be able to shut them down because of their scheme. Of course, they can score points from sacks, but Josh McCown is capable of making them pay in garbage time. Now, the Bills could dominate with their defensive line and score close to 20 points, but they are just as likely to score less than ten.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

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week one DFS

Three ideal week one DFS quarterbacks

If you’re like me, you’ve been counting down the days until week one of the NFL season since championship Sunday. Now, with the NFL preseason looming, it’s never too early to look ahead and start planning. In order to finish in the money, you can’t whiff on your quarterback selection. So without further adieu, here are three quarterbacks to build your week one DFS lineup around.

Matt Ryan Average 2016 Salary: $8,268

Week one DFS has some interesting matchups. If you’re looking for a tier-one quarterback to roster, it can’t be Tom Brady, since he plays on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees play tough defenses in Seattle and Minnesota. And finally, Andrew Luck and Derek Carr will be returning from major injuries. These factors make the 2016 NFL MVP, Matt Ryan, the ideal tier-one quarterback.

NFL week one DFS quarterbacks

Matt Ryan has a history of delivering for week one DFS players (Photo by usatoday.com).

Ryan has a history of producing on opening day. According to Rotoguru, Ryan has scored at least 18 points in every week one game including three 20-point and two 30-point performances since 2012. While none of these have come versus Chicago, his week one opponent, they show Ryan’s ability to deliver on day one.

Yes, I’m aware Ryan will have new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, who’s never called a play in the NFL. However, weapons like Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will more than compensate for Sark’s lack of experience.

Ryan’s past aside, the Bears don’t look like a top 10 defense. Their status as a top seven pass defense last year had more to do with their inability to stop the run, as they finished 27th in rushing yards allowed.

According to NFL.com, Ryan is set to average just under 18 points per game. It makes sense. The 2015 NFL MVP, Cam Newton, regressed to the mean this past season. Ryan will not have such a dramatic drop off, but it is likely he will not produce at the same MVP caliber level.

Matt Ryan will be the premiere tier-one quarterback given his health and his match up compared to players like Rodgers, Brees, Luck and Carr for week one.

Jameis Winston Average 2016 salary: $7,606

Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers have quietly assembled one of the most complete teams in the NFC. While they are not without flaws, they have the ability to quickly move up a division notorious for parity at the top spot. To compete with Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Cam Newton, Winston will have to increase his production while maintaining his growing efficiency.

NFL week one DFS quarterbacks

Jameis Winston (left) and Mike Evans (right) look to ascend to the top of the NFC South in 2017 (Photo by lockerdome.com).

In 2016, Winston experienced an increase in the following categories: attempts, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns and passer rating. Most of these increases were marginal, but Winston ascended above the critical 60 percent completion threshold.

Previous number one quarterbacks like Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Matt Stafford all had breakout performances in their third season as a starter. Specifically, they all saw increases in touchdowns, completion percentage, and QBR, including some career highs in those areas.

Another great reason to roster Winston for week one DFS are the weapons at his disposal. Mike Evans has established himself as a premiere receiver, in fantasy as well as reality. The Buccaneers additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard only make this offense more explosive in the passing game.

While I don’t see Howard overtaking Cameron Brate, he will absolutely play a role in their red zone offense as another big target for Winston.

Winston also provides a low floor, high ceiling option in his tier-two price range. He’ll likely fall into the $7,400-$7,800 price range for week one, which is completely fair. Hopefully, the oddsmakers at DraftKings and FanDuel set his price at the lower end of the range in his week one DFS match up against the Dolphins.

Tyrod Taylor – Average 2016 Salary: $7,481

In all honesty, I don’t think I rostered Tyrod Taylor more than two or three times last season. Sometimes that worked out well, and other times it didn’t. In 2017, I plan to capitalize on Taylor, especially in week one. Taylor and the Bills will be hosting the bumbling, incompetent New York Jets. While Taylor’s sample size vs New York is small, it’s also promising.

NFL week one DFS quarterbacks

According to Scout Fantasy, Tyrod Taylor has been successful in his limited opportunities against the Jets (Photo by fftoolbox.scout.com).

While Taylor can be inconsistent in season-long leagues, he has performances that merit selection in DFS. In particular, his week one match up against the Jets. Multiple media outlets have claimed the Jets are in full on rebuild mode in hopes to acquire a top quarterback prospect. Given this information, it’s likely that Taylor, along with LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins, will face minimal resistance come Sunday, Sep. 10.

Apart from his matchup and ability to run the ball, I love Taylor’s price tag. It’s likely his week one DFS price will be inflated. However, it is safe to say he won’t cost more than $7,600. Taylor was most expensive in week six of 2016 with a price of $7,800 against the 49ers. So, against a historically bad defense, Taylor didn’t even scratch the $8,000 range. It is likely he will be priced in the $7,300-$7,600 range, which will allow you great flexibility at other spots of your lineup.

 

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