week 10 DFS don'ts

Week 10 DFS don’ts: Tight end

Like the kicker and defense positions, I find myself in the middle of the tight end price range most weeks. However, this week presents a problem. The expensive tight ends are in good situations, but that middle price range that I love is filled with problematic players. Let’s find out which landmines to avoid at the tight end edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

Jack Doyle: FanDuel Price $6,100

I never thought I’d see the day that Jack Doyle is one of the most expensive tight ends on the FanDuel Sunday main slate. Sadly, he won’t be on any of my rosters this weekend.

Doyle’s workload and connection with Jacoby Brissett has improved dramatically over the past few weeks. He’s usually a player I’m targeting, but his matchup against the Steelers is absolutely brutal

This season, the Steelers pass defense has only allowed a single touchdown to a fantasy relevant tight end. Tyler Kroft scored against the Steelers in Week 7 and was the only tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against this unit all season. Top players at the position like Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph failed to score at least 10 points or find the end zone.

One reason for their success against this position is their pass rush. However, I believe the main reason for their success against tight ends comes down to one player, Ryan Shazier. He is currently ranked as the fifth best linebacker according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers have been deploying him in underneath coverage against tight ends and allowing T.J. Watt to rush the passer.

That’s the reason why Shazier has zero sacks this year and why Watt is tied for second on the team with four. Shazier’s ability to cover tight ends underneath severely limits the amount of targets and catches the opposition can accumulate.

I don’t see the Colts being able to protect Brissett long enough to attack this defense down the field with Doyle. Therefore, I think Doyle’s run as one of the best daily fantasy tight ends comes to an end this week.

Eric Ebron: FanDuel Price $5,300

I thought I was done talking about Eric Ebron, but I was wrong. The Lions face the Cleveland Browns this weekend, one of the worst teams against the tight end in the NFL. Ebron is going to get hyped up all week as a great “under the radar” option at tight end, but don’t fall for it.

The Lions have been using their backup tight end Darren Fells more than Ebron. And, there is one problem for either of these tight ends this weekend in a great matchup.

The Lions have had an incredibly bad red zone offense this season, especially the last two weeks. This presents a great opportunity for the Lions to get right in the red zone against a team that is so bad against the tight end. However, Ebron has to be on the field in order to capitalize on this matchup. It’s too bad he’s been playing second fiddle to Fells in terms of snaps since Week 4.

week 10 DFS don'ts

Snap count information from Rotowire

Not only is Fells getting more playing time than Ebron, he’s seeing substantially more targets in the red zone. During that same stretch, Fells has 11 red zone targets and six catches. Ebron only has five red zone targets and a grand total of zero catches.

It’s evident that Matthew Stafford does not trust him near the goal line. If any tight end is scoring against the Browns in the red zone, I bet my money on Fells and not Ebron.

Vernon Davis: FanDuel Price $5,300

Vernon Davis came through for a lot of DFS owners in Week 9. On the road against a banged up Seattle defense, Davis had a productive day given his price. However, I don’t see it happening this weekend when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. I’m making this pick regardless of Jordan Reed’s status for Sunday’s game.

If Reed plays, Davis loses a lot of opportunities and is therefore a shoe-in for the Week 10 DFS don’t list. If Reed sits, Davis draws a tremendously tough individual matchup against Harrison Smith. Smith is grading out as the NFL’s best safety. He’s been incredible in coverage this year, and I don’t see Davis at his advanced age being able get open.

Davis joins Doyle and Ebron as tight ends to keep off your roster in this edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

 

Featured image from Indy Star

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week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Tight end

In week eight we saw some of the leagues most productive tight ends take a step back. Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski managed to score, but only produced 11.4 and 14.2 respectively. While that’s great for seasonal fantasy teams, those point totals don’t get it done in DFS given their high price. Other players like Hunter Henry and Austin Seferian-Jenkins came up short. Let’s figure out which land mines we need to avoid in the tight end edition of week 9 DFS don’ts.

Travis Kelce: FanDuel Price $7,000

Kelce is in a unique position. He plays on a great offense crafted by Andy Reid and executed to near perfection by Alex Smith. This offense features one player at each position that is fantasy relevant; however, that doesn’t always mean they will produce. For example, Kelce had a great game Monday against Denver. For most DFS players, we knew it was a great spot for him. The way to beat Denver is to attack the middle of the field and avoid their corners.

Conversely, Kelce had a great matchup against the Raiders and their weak secondary and did not produce. Instead, it was Tyreek Hill’s turn to produce. Essentially, Reid designs new plays each week for certain players instead of just targeting them in the normal context of their offense. For example, they would continually flex out Kelce and have three wide receivers to the opposite side. This would force a safety to play one-on-one with Kelce and that’s the formation that he was able to score on.

Statistically, Kelce has been inconsistent week to week. He has three single digit point outings, including a 0.6 point game against the Chargers. He’s gotten more consistent since week five; however, he faces a Cowboys secondary that has been stingy against tight ends. Byron Jones, will likely be guarding Kelce this weekend. He’s currently ranked as a top 50 safety overall according to Pro Football Focus, but is a top 25 safety purely in coverage. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else. After quiet games from Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill, I think those players see the majority of the production this weekend. Travis Kelce makes his first appearance in this series on my week 9 DFS don’ts.

Jimmy Graham: FanDuel Price $6,200

week 9 DFS don'ts

Jimmy Graham has been a touchdown machine the last two weeks, but is his success sustainable moving forward with Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett carving out larger roles? (Courtesy of 247 Sports)

Ughh Jimmy Graham. He was the bane of my DFS existence in week 7. He should have posted a 20 plus point game, but his hands did not allow him to. In week 8, Graham managed to benefit from an awful chop block by Thomas Rawls, which also took away points from my Rusell Wilson to Paul Richardson stack. So, without a fluke penalty, Graham is only targeted four times and loses at least 6.5 points as a result of that one play.

To be fair, Graham is immensely talented as a pass catcher despite his recent woes with drops. And, he plays on an offense with absolutely zero threat of a run game. His placement on the week 9 DFS don’ts list is simply because there are better options in this price range.

Evan Engram is only $100 more expensive and is the number one pass catching threat on his team. You could also pivot down to a Jack Doyle or Jared Cook. It’s evident that Doyle has earned the trust of his quarterback, and Cook has a great matchup Sunday night against the Dolphins.

Ryan Griffin: FanDuel Price $5,200

This pick falls in line with my Cody Parkey reminder in yesterday’s piece. If you are paying down at tight end please don’t waste your time with Ryan Griffin. Deshaun Watson has established that he wants to throw the ball down the field to his wide receivers. Since DeAndre Hopkins see more than 30% of Watson’s targets, there simply isn’t enough opportunity for Griffin at this point. Yes, he has a great matchup against this Colts secondary, but then again, so does every Texans pass catcher. Better options in this price range include Vernon Davis at $5,400 and Ed Dickson at $4,900. Griffin joins Kelce and Graham on my week 9 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Kansas City Chiefs

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week 8 DFS don'ts

Week 8 DFS don’ts: Tight end

This position may have been the most frustrating at the beginning of the season. Now with seven weeks in the books, we have more clarity at this position. We’ve relied on the name brands at tight end like Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. However, some new names have emerged to bring more consistency to the tight end position. So, which players are prime to disappoint? Let’s find out in the tight end edition of week 8 DFS don’ts.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: FanDuel Price $6,300

Austin Sefereian-Jenkins has been a wonderful surprise. Football aside, it’s great to see a guy prioritize his life and become a productive player. Unfortunately, I think the production will slip this week as ASJ faces off against the Atlanta Falcons.

What? The Falcons have been terrible defensively. How could ASJ not have a favorable matchup? Well, he is going to line up across from Keanu Neal, one of the league’s best cover safeties. According to Pro Football Focus, Neal’s grade is 81.1, which is 24th among all safeties. However, his size and speed make him a great weapon to deploy against opposing tight ends. This season the Falcons have surrendered zero touchdowns to tight ends.

Much of that has to do with Neal. But, they did allow Charles Clay to accumulate over 100 yards receiving. That was an outlier, since Clay was the Bills’ best receiver and was the focal point of their passing game. What makes ASJ so hard to defend is his unusual athleticism for his size. I don’t see him having a big day. Sure, he could score if given a few end zone targets, but he won’t produce much outside of scoring.

O.J. Howard: FanDuel Price $5,200

week 8 DFS don'ts

OJ Howard’ inconsistent workload and touchdown dependent production places him on the week 8 DFS don’ts list (Courtesy of; AL.com).

I’ve banged the don’t play O.J. Howard drum since week one. Rookie tight ends don’t produce outside of Rob Gronkowski, and now, Evan Engram.

Howard’s talent is undeniable, but he plays in an offense with plenty of mouths to feed. Right now, Howard is behind Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Cameron Brate in targets.

When you add in Adam Humphries and the running game, there simply aren’t enough opportunities for Howard to produce consistently. I know I know, he had a great game against the Bills. Well, if you actually watched that game you’d know that his two touchdowns were a fluke. There was no one within 10 yards of him on both of those plays.

This is a case where looking at the box score is not sufficient. The tape of the game tells a completely different story. Yes, Howard’s role in this offense is increasing. However, we cannot count on him scoring twice on six targets. Play him if you’d like, just don’t blame me when his final stat line is three catches for 44 yards and no touchdowns.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of MassLive.com

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week 7 DFS don'ts

Week 7 DFS don’ts: Tight end

Week 6 might have been my worst week at the tight end position. No one’s perfect, but none of my low priced tight ends were even close to hitting. Thankfully, I get another shot to be right, or wrong, in week 7. Let’s dive right into the tight end edition of week 7 DFS don’ts.

Evan Engram: FanDuel Price $5,500

I love Evan Engram. I have shares of him in multiple seasonal fantasy leagues, but it’s not happening this weekend. I’ve talked multiple times about this Seahawks defense and how it is not good for opposing tight ends.

Kam Chancellor is great. His size as a safety allows him to play physically with tight ends and not worry about being bullied. Earl Thomas also has incredible playmaking skills, which keep quarterbacks from testing the deep middle.

Personnel aside, the Seahawks cover 3 scheme does not allow tight ends to accumulate a lot of yards. To successfully attack a Cover 3 defense, the ball has to get to the hash marks. This is the area by which neither player in their zone can account for. The Giants haven’t yet shown the ability to attack this part of the field.

The Seahawks statistically have been great against the tight end position. They have allowed zero touchdowns thus far, and only one time has a tight end scored double digit points. This occurred in week 5 against the Rams.

Overall, the Seahawks won’t allow Engram to get going because he is the focal point of the passing game. They won’t have a disappointing outing like the Denver Broncos because they have a superior coach in Pete Carroll. Stay away from Evan Engram this weekend.

Zach Miller: FanDuel Price $5,200

week 7 DFS don'ts

Don’t be fooled by Zach Miller’s recent production, as it has come in the most unconventional ways. (Photo by CBS Sports Chicago)

Please don’t fall for this trick. I’ve heard people talking about how Mitch Trubisky has made Zach Miller relevant. This could not be further from the truth. Miller’s production the last two weeks is nothing but complete luck. Miller’s touchdown against the Vikings should have been an interception.

Instead, the ball was tipped and fell right into his hands. Against the Ravens, Miller caught a touchdown from Tarik, freaking, Cohen. He caught a touchdown pass from a running back and people are trying to correlate that production to Trubisky.

Miller’s matchup is one of the worst this weekend for any tight end. He and the Bears will host the Carolina Panthers, who have been one of the NFL’s best defenses. Outside of Zach Ertz, they have done a great job against tight ends.

There are other players in much better situations at Miller’s price with more reliable production. Miller joins Engram on my week 7 DFS don’ts.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Scout.com

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week 6 DFS don'ts

Week 6 DFS don’ts: tight end

This could be the most frustrating position in all of fantasy football. If you’re in a seasonal league, you’re just looking at any tight end who can get you more than zero points. If you’re a DFS degenerate like myself, you’re torn every week between paying up for Zach Ertz, or making a value play like Ryan Griffin. I can’t confidently tell you who will lead the position in scoring this weekend. However, I can tell you which players to fade in the tight end edition of week 6 DFS don’ts.

Martellus Bennett: FanDuel Price $5,500

Have we not learned our lesson? It doesn’t matter who the tight end is; the Green Bay offense doesn’t feature tight ends. What happened when Randall Cobb was inactive against Cincinnati? Conventional wisdom says they would allocate targets to the large, athletic tight end in the middle of the field. Instead, Geronimo Allison had twice as many targets Bennett.

It’s clear this offense prioritizes wide receivers. There’s a reason that Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are first and second in touchdowns since 2016. It took Nelson and Cobb getting hurt against Atlanta to see double-digit targets. Bennett still only managed to turn 11 targets into five catches for 47 yards.

Offensive role aside, Bennett has an awful individual matchup this Sunday against Harrison Smith. While Smith doesn’t get national media coverage, he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL. Currently, Pro Football Focus has Smith ranked as the sixth best safety. Please, do yourself a favor, and avoid Martellus Bennett this weekend. There are better options available.

Darren Fells: FanDuel Price $4,900

week 6 DFS don'ts

Darren Fells has done nothing but take advantage of the opportunities he’s been given this season. (Photo from Washington Times).

If you’ve been following this series, or listening to the Suck My DFS Podcast, my disdain for Eric Ebron is well documented. It brought me pure joy to watch him drop a touchdown pass, and then see Darren Fells catch two. However, joy does not equate to DFS viability.

Fells has no doubt been improving this season. Every game, his role becomes more solidified. He even managed to get more snaps than Ebron on Sunday against the Panthers. But, let’s calm down. The workload simply isn’t there.

Yes, Fells scored twice, but he was only targeted twice. That means he maxed out his potential production, and that only equates to 15 points. Considering how awful this position is, that’s great. However, Fells’ floor is way to low to even consider as a DFS option. I’ll be going elsewhere this week as Fells joins Bennett on my week 6 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Sports Illustrated

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week 5 DFS don'ts

Week 5 DFS don’ts: tight end

I love this part of the NFL season. With four weeks in the books, we have a much better idea of how these players will be used. This is the time to strike in DFS. We know who the featured players are and which defenses we want to target on a weekly basis. So let’s get started with the tight end edition of week 5 DFS don’ts.

Tyler Kroft: FanDuel Price $5,500

If you listened to the Suck My DFS Podcast last week, I hope you made a ton of money on Tyler Kroft. He had a great week and took advantage of a great matchup.

However, that was last week. Cleveland has been atrocious against the tight end position this season. Kroft also had the second most targets on the Bengals through the first three weeks. It was the perfect situation where opportunity and matchup aligned perfectly, but that was last week.

In week 5, the Bengals face the Bills. The Bills held Matt Ryan to his lowest completion percentage of the season at 57.1 percent. Yes, I know he didn’t have all of his weapons on the outside, but it’s safe to say that Matt Ryan’s offensive line is vastly superior to Andy Dalton’s. Thus, Dalton and company are going to struggle to move the football consistently.

Apart from their performance against the Falcons, the Bills have been tremendous against the pass all season. As a unit, they’ve only surrendered one touchdown pass through the first four games. That score came on the road against Atlanta, who has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL.

Analysis aside, playing Tyler Kroft goes against one of my core DFS beliefs: Don’t chase points.

Kroft took advantage of a great matchup. That’s it. He will not produce near to the same level this Sunday. His price has increased dramatically. For these reasons, Kroft has landed on my week 5 DFS don’ts list.

Eric Ebron: FanDuel Price $5,200

week 5 DFS don'ts

Eric Ebron’s inconsistent play has landed him on the week 5 DFS don’ts list (Courtesy of; Zimbio).

I’m so close to being out on Eric Ebron indefinitely. Watching him play is incredibly frustrating. He’s consistently inconsistent and Matt Stafford has taken notice. After dropping multiple passes against Atlanta in week 3, Ebron has clearly fallen out of favor.

Detroit’s coaching staff has taken notice as well. Ebron was only on the field for 31 snaps Sunday against the Vikings compared to 45 the week before. His understudy, Darren Fells, was on the field for a staggering 51 snaps against the Vikings. He also had a season-high five targets, which was one more target than Ebron.

Eric Ebron is incredibly talented, but his time is up. If he’s healthy, which has been a big if in his career, he’s anything but consistent. Unless his price falls drastically, and he has a great matchup, I will not be touching Eric Ebron for the foreseeable future.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of USA Today

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week four DFS don'ts

Week four DFS don’ts: Tight End

Where do I even begin with this position? It’s an incredibly frustrating position to predict in seasonal and daily fantasy. You could choose to pay up for Travis Kelce, and he kills you. Or you could pay down for Eric Ebron, and he kills you. Let’s find out which two tight end land mines you should avoid in this edition of week four DFS don’ts.

Hunter Henry: FanDuel Price $5,600

I wasn’t as high on Hunter Henry as the public was entering this season. He plays in a tight end friendly system and plays with a quarterback who has shown he will throw to the tight end. Sadly, there has been no consistency to Henry thus far.

In two of his three games, he has zero targets. That’s right. Not zero touchdowns. Not zero catches. Zero, freaking, targets. It’s so disheartening to see a player who tied for first for touchdowns at his position just a year ago, be relegated to such a diminished role. Sadly, the Chargers have utilized Henry as a blocker to help combat fierce pass rushers. Even though he didn’t get a target, he still out snapped Antonio Gates.

On the bright side, Antonio Gates can’t last forever. Physically he doesn’t have it anymore. Now that he has the tight end touchdown record, I could see them starting to phase Gates out of the offense. Until we have more clarity and consistency, we have to remove Henry from our selection process moving forward.

Jack Doyle: FanDuel Price $5,400

week four DFS don'ts

Jack Doyle faces a tough match up this week versus the Seattle Seahawks (Courtesy of; Rant Sports)

I try not to have players appear more than once on my weekly lists, but, I have to break that trend today. I love Jack Doyle, but this match up is not good. In last weeks tight end edition of DFS don’ts, which you can read here, I talked about Seattle’s scheme and how it’s not great for tight ends.

Delanie Walker, who is superior to Doyle in talent and offensive circumstances, had a down game. Seattle’s cover three scheme limits tight ends because it doesn’t allow them to get down the field. So, that means you won’t see any tight end running free down the middle off play action, because the defensive backs divide the field into thirds.

The only way Doyle pays off this week is through tremendous volume and if by some miracle he gets in the end zone. There are other options available and we’ll have to pivot towards them this week. Doyle is the first player to be featured twice in this segment, as he joins Hunter Henry on my week four DFS don’ts.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week three DFS don'ts

Week three DFS don’ts: Tight ends

As most DFS players know, tight end can be an incredibly volatile position. Sometimes the tight end lock of the week fails (I’m looking at you, Jimmy Graham). I can’t tell you which guys will score this week, but, I can tell you who to stay away from moving forward. Let’s see which tight ends end up on my week three DFS don’ts list.

Delanie Walker: FanDuel Price $6,500

Delanie Walker is a DFS darling. It’s clear he is Marcus Mariota’s safety net and the coaching staff is finding ways to get him more involved. Sadly, I don’t think he’ll reach ten points for the third week straight given his matchup.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have established themselves as a good pass defense. As a result, Walker only received four targets last week. That’s five less than in week one vs. the Oakland Raiders, but thankfully, he caught all four of those targets and turned them into 61 yards.

The Seattle Seahawks are similar to the Jaguars in terms of scheme. Both teams run a base 4-3 and their primary coverage strategy is cover 3.

Seattle is still more talented than Jacksonville from personnel perspective. The cover 3 scheme makes it hard for receivers to get behind the secondary. Therefore, Walker will have to do most of his damage in the short and intermediate parts of the field.

This will limit his yardage upside, and Seattle is perennially good at limiting yards after the catch. I don’t care about their performance against the San Francisco tight ends, as they are young and unproven.

However, I will consider their performance against Green Bay and Martellus Bennett. They held Bennett, a comparable talent to Walker, to three catches on six targets for 43 yards. Considering they did this against Aaron Rodgers on the road, I’m not optimistic about Delanie Walker this Sunday. Thus, he’s firmly on my week three DFS don’ts.

Coby Fleener: FanDuel Price $5,700

week three DFS don'ts: tight ends

Coby Fleener is one of the few tight ends to find the end zone in the first two games of the year (Courtesy of; Fox Sports).

Coby Fleener was wildly popular last weekend. He projected as one of the most popular tight ends on FanDuel entering their contest against New England. If you were able to take advantage of him in DFS last week like me, then congratulations. But, it’s time to move off Fleener this week.

In a game where the Saints were trailing from the opening kick, Fleener was on the field for less than 50 percent of the snaps. That’s awful for a starting tight end in this pass-heavy offense. Currently, Fleener possesses a 12 percent target market share.

This on paper is not bad. However, it is likely to decrease as the Saints showed they are willing to play multiple running backs at the same time, instead of featuring a tight end.

There is potential for this trend to change. I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on Fleener’s usage at Carolina this weekend. But, there’s one other reason I’m off Fleener: his price increase.

I know, he’s scored touchdowns in each of his first two games. FanDuel is rightfully increasing his price. That doesn’t mean I have to play him. I like other players below that price who are getting more opportunities like Jack Doyle.

 

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Featured Image Courtesy of The Tennessean

week two DFS Dont's

Week two DFS don’ts: Tight ends

Week one reinforced our belief in the volatility at the tight end position. The top five scoring tight ends on FanDuel were all less than $5,500 and Jason Witten was the most expensive. The most notable players at this position disappointed in a big way. This means you need to pay attention to match up and opportunity, not the name on the jersey. With that being said, one of the highest scoring tight ends of week one has found himself on my list of week two DFS don’ts.

Austin Hooper: FanDuel Price $5,500

What? How is the highest scoring tight end in week one DFS don’ts? The opportunity is not and will not be there for Austin Hooper this week. When selecting a tight end, you normally want to follow this checklist. Is his team a heavy favorite? Is his team playing at home? Does he command between eight percent and 15 percent of his team’s targets?

First, the opening line on the Atlanta and Green Bay game started with Atlanta as a one point favorite. Currently on BOVADA, the line has moved to Atlanta -3. This is a good sign for Hooper. If the line becomes Atlanta -5, then you can start to consider Hooper as your DFS tight end. However, there is more to examine.

Second, the Falcons are playing at home, on Sunday night, in their new stadium. Even I can’t deny that narrative. I was at the NFC Championship last year and the atmosphere was incredible. Everyone is going to remember how the Packers got dismantled by this team, including Aaron Rodgers. This game will likely shoot out given these two offenses and the already high over/under of 54.

Finally, the most important part of the checklist is his target market share. For those who don’t know, target market share is the percentage of targets a player gets. Against the Bears, Hooper received a whopping six percent of Matt Ryan’s targets. The only reason he produced was because of a coverage lapse by the Bears. If you want to count on a guy who needs a complete coverage breakdown to produce, at an incredibly inflated price, be my guest.

Jack Doyle: FanDuel Price $5,200

week two DFS Dont's: tight ends

Jack Doyle (Photo: SI.com)

It’s obvious, I know. However, that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t talk about how awful this matchup is for Doyle. First, he might have the worst quarterback in the NFL. Scott Tolzien is unwatchable. Even with such a game flow that dictated the Colts to throw the ball, Doyle only saw three targets. Maybe the situation improves if Jacoby Brissett gets to start. But, that may not help given their lack of chemistry.

Not only does Doyle have an awful quarterback, he has potentially the worst matchup in the NFL. In my DFS don’ts tight end piece last week, I talked about how good the Cardinals defense is against tight ends. They only surrendered two touchdowns in 2016 to tight ends, and they never allowed more than 53 receiving yards in a single game to the opposition. Predictably, Eric Ebron was awful against the Cardinals.

If the Cardinals are going to be this good going forward, I may have to place any tight end playing against them in this series. Maybe I would consider Doyle as a “punt” play at the tight end position, but his price of $5,200 doesn’t even allow me to do that. There are plenty of other options with better matchups and prices in this week’s main slate.

 

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week one DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Tight Ends

Now that the Kicker and Defense is out of the way, let’s start looking at real Football players. Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in NFL DFS. The drop off from top tier players like Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce to the next is dramatic. I look for value at this position. Specifically, I want players with medium/low salaries that can produce double digit points. Without further delay, let’s examine which tight ends are part of my week one DFS dont’s.

Eric Ebron – Fanduel Price $5,500

2016 could not have been more frustrating for season-long owners of Eric Ebron. Yet again, he failed to reach one thousand yards receiving. And, he had one more touchdown reception than I did last year. Not to mention, Ebron has a propensity for getting and staying injured.

On the other hand, there will be a plethora of red zone targets up for grabs with Anquan Boldin’s departure. I think he will no doubt have more than one touchdown this season and more than 711 yards receiving. However, his match up with the vaunted Cardinals secondary is a huge problem.

In 2016, the Cardinals secondary was elite against tight ends. Through their first eight games, the Cardinals never surrendered more than five catches and 53 yards receiving. Not to mention, they allowed zero receiving touchdowns to tight ends. They even pitched a complete game shutout against the Jets in week six. Meaning, they didn’t allow a single tight end to register a stat.

week one DFS Dont's

Will the Cardinals’ defense shut down Eric Ebron and justify his placement on my week one DFS Dont’s list?

I know Ebron is talented. I know he plays in an offense that throws the ball at least 30 times a game. But, I have no confidence that he will produce against this elite unit, or, that he’ll even be healthy enough to play the whole game. There are plenty more attractive options at tight end this week. Given his situation, Eric Ebron was the easiest member of my week one DFS Dont’s among any position.

OJ Howard – Fanduel Price $5,400

The hype around OJ Howard astounds me. Have we already forgotten that Cameron Brate, the Buccaneers starting tight end, tied for leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns among tight ends? Yes, I know that Hunter Henry, a backup rookie tight end, was who he tied with. However, this situation is different.

week one DFS Dont's

There’s no denying OJ Howard’s talent, but will the opportunities be there in week one for him to make a DFS impact? (Photo Courtesy of; Bucs Report)

Antonio Gates has clearly lost a step or two. This gave Henry the opportunity to get on the field and demand targets. Brate on the other hand is a young player at his position and has a tremendous red zone chemistry with Jameis Winston. I do believe at some point this year Howard overtakes Brate, but not the first week of the season.

Not only is Howard not the starting tight end, he would at best be the third receiving option if he was. Mike Evans led the NFL in targets last season and DeSean Jackson wasn’t brought in to be a decoy on half the snaps.

Apart from Howard’s current situation, rookie tight ends historically don’t start strong and rarely score 100 non-PPR points in a season. By non-PPR standards, the three best rookie seasons in NFL history by tight ends are Rob Gronkowski in 2010 (114 points), Cam Cleeland in 1998 (104 points), and Jeremy Shockey in 2002 (102 points).

Two of those three players will go to the Hall of Fame at their positions and for the record, only Cleeland, who I know you’ve never heard of before, scored double digit points in his rookie debut. If you want to compete in GPP’s or large tournaments, you’ll need your tight end to score double digit points.

If I haven’t made a strong enough case yet, this is sure to convince you. OJ Howard, the backup tight end, is $200 more expensive than the starter Cameron Brate! You are literally throwing away money for less production if you decide to roster OJ Howard. It only makes sense that Howard will go off now that I’ve taken such a strong stance, but the evidence suggests he belongs on my week one DFS Dont’s.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

“From Our Haus to Yours”

 

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