2018 MLB preview: Seattle Mariners

2017: 78-84 (third place in AL West)

Last Postseason Appearance: 2001

Last World Series Title: NEVER WON A WORLD SERIES (Joined the AL as an expansion team in 1977)

2017 Recap

In 2016, the Mariners won 86 games, but finished three games out of the Wild Card. With some big additions for 2017, Jean Segura, Yovani Gallardo, Mitch Haniger, and Jarrod Dyson, Seattle fell below expectations and won just 78 games. This marked the 16th straight season in which the Mariners failed to make the postseason, which is not only longest current streak in the MLB, but also the longest postseason drought within the Big Four North American Sports.

So what went wrong? Among the 15 AL teams, Seattle’s offense finished sixth in batting average and on base percentage, seventh in runs and hits, which isn’t terrible. As far as pitching, the Mariners staff finished seventh in the AL in runs, and allowed the fifth fewest walks. So when you look at the numbers, Seattle is pretty average at everything, which is not the worst characteristic in baseball.

A glaring number that defines Seattle’s 2017 season was 26. Last season, the Mariners blew a league-high 26 saves. A few less blown saves and this team is easily in the hunt for a spot in the Wild Card Game.

Nelson Cruz hit 39 home runs and had a career high .375 OBP in 2017. (Grantland)

Of course, there were plenty of players who performed well for Seattle in 2017. Nelson Cruz’s 39 home runs was good for sixth in the MLB. He also finished fifth in RBIs, ninth in adjusted OPS, and had a career high .375 OBP. Cruz was the best DH in the league this year, and should continue to mash in 2018.

Mike Zunino finally looks like the catcher the Mariners had hoped for when they selected him third overall in the 2012 MLB Draft. Zunino was sixth in WAR among catchers, and hit 25 home runs with a .331 OBP. In the second half of his breakout year, the 26-year-old hit .281 with 13 home runs.

Seattle’s best pitcher was James Paxton. Paxton had multiple stints on the disabled list, but made the most of his time on the field. He was the AL Pitcher of the Month in July when he went 6-0 with a .79 WHIP. Paxton finished the year with a 12-5 record, 2.98 ERA, and 156 strikeouts in 136 innings.

2018: Around the Diamond

Like the previous offseason, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made plenty of moves to spruce up his ball club, in hopes of finally getting back to the postseason. The biggest move was the trade for Dee Gordon. Seattle already has future Hall of Famer, Robinson Cano, at second, but the Mariners traded for Gordon to play centerfield. He is clearly quick enough, having led the majors in steals in three of the last four seasons, and he has shown great ability with his glove, having won a Gold Glove in 2015. With Miami in 2017, Gordon hit .308 with 114 runs scored and a .341 OBP. He also stole 60 bases last season, which is almost double the amount that the AL Steals leader, Whit Merrifield (34) had in 2017. With that said, the Mariners should easily lead the AL in steals.

Last season, Dee Gordon hit .308 and stole 60 bases  (Seattle Times)

With Gordon at the top of the order, Seattle now has a pretty lethal offense. Especially with the addition of Ryon Healy to play first base. Last season, the Mariners got little to no production out of the first base positon, finishing 23rd in WAR for 1B. In comes Healy, who hit 25 home runs last year, and .314 against lefties. He doesn’t walk enough, and strikes out a bit too much, but he is clearly an upgrade at the position. Healy will be out 4-6 weeks after undergoing surgery to remove bone spur from his right hand, but it is not considered a big deal and he should be fine for the season.

On paper, this Seattle team should do some damage. Even though Cruz is getting up there in age, he is still the best DH, and one of the best power hitters in the game. Zunino is one of the best power-hitting catchers in the league, and Cano is still a top-5 second basemen. In 2017, Cano hit .280 with 23 home runs and 33 doubles. The Mariners will also have a healthy Jean Segura, who hit .300 with 11 home runs with 22 steals in just 125 games, at shortstop. Let’s not forget that, in 2016, Segura was an MVP candidate.

If they hope to make a playoff run, The Mariners desperately need Kyle Seager to get back to his 2016 self. That year, he finished 12th in MVP voting and hit 30 home runs with a .359 OBP. Last season, he hit just .249 with a .323 OBP, and his 107 OPS+ was the worst of his career since becoming a full-time starter. He still hit 27 home runs, but needs to be better in 2018.

Joining Gordon in the outfield will be Ben Gamel and Mitch Haniger. Haniger was fantastic in 2017, that is, when he was on the field. He missed a lot of time because of injury but was able to hit .282 with 16 home runs and .352 OBP in only 96 games. Ben Gamel hit .323 in the first half and finished at .275 with 11 home runs.

On the Bump

Not only did Seattle make moves to help with the offense, but they also brought in veteran pitcher Mike Leake. Leake is coming off a solid season, in which he posted a 3.1 WAR, the highest of his career. He had a rough second half, but this is a guy who can give you innings. Leake has thrown at least 175 innings over the last six seasons.

Paxton looks to be in line to start Opening Day, but let’s not forget about Felix Hernandez, who was the face of this organization for so many years. Hernandez was banged up last year and posted a 4.36 ERA, which was his worst since 2006. He also gave up 1.77 HR/9, a career high for the former CY Young Award winner. Yet, this was only in 86.2 innings, and Felix is healthy and ready to go in 2018. Although the man has already thrown over 2500 innings, there has to be something left in the tank.

Rounding out the rotation will be Erasmo Ramirez, and Ariel Miranda. Although, Hisashi Iwakuma, when healthy, and Marco Gonzales should also start some games. Edwin Diaz, who finished eighth in saves last year, will remain the closer. Diaz has great stuff, but gave up 10 home runs in 66 innings last season. If Diaz struggles, Seattle has guys like Juan Nicasio, David Phelps, and Nick Vincent, who are all capable of giving you quality innings out of the bullpen.

The Future

The Mariners top prospect is their 2016 first round pick, Kyle Lewis. Lewis, a 22-year-old outfielder, missed half of last season while recovering from knee surgery. Still, he was able to 7 home runs and 31 RBIs in 49 games between R/A+. In six playoff games for Modesto, Lewis hit .393 with six RBIs. He is now fully healthy, and the plan is to work his way up to AA at some point in 2018.

 

2018 Prediction: 86-76

They will have to fight off the Angels, but Seattle should end their playoff drought in 2018. Had they not blown 26 saves last season, they would have had a shot, and now, with key additions to the lineup and a healthy rotation, there is no reason for Seattle to struggle again. They have a legitimate offense and if they can play better against Houston and Los Angeles, they will be fine.

Featured image by MLB.com

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2017 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Crying Tiers of Joy: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

From Eddie Mathews to Ron Santo, from Mike Schmidt to Wade Boggs, from Chipper Jones to Adrian Beltre; the hot corner has remained a staple of power and production for centuries. Third basemen made up ten of the top 50 fantasy hitters in 2016, including the 2015 AL and 2016 NL MVP’s. With so many options to choose from, third base is one of, if not, the deepest position in fantasy baseball.

 

The top 30 third basemen have been grouped into six tiers, with the top and bottom player of each tier profiled below.

Honorable mentions include: Brandon Drury (ARI), Yulieski Gurriel (HOU), Jose Reyes (NYM), Jedd Gyorko (STL), Ryan Schimpf (SD), Hernan Perez (MIL), Matt Duffy (TB), and Johnny Peralta (STL).

 

Tier 1

2017 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Can Kris Bryant be the first to win back to back MVP’s since Miguel Cabrera? (Courtesy of Chicagostylesports.com)

1. Kris Bryant CHC

2. Nolan Arenado COL

3. Josh Donaldson TOR

4. Manny Machado BAL

 

The reigning NL MVP, Kris Bryant, should be the first third basemen taken in 2017. Bryant was called up in 2015 after mashing 43 home runs at the AA and AAA levels. The minor-league player of the year impressed immediately in the majors, as he hit 26 home runs and drove in 99 RBI’s, resulting in him winning the Rookie of the Year.

The 24-year-old crushed 39 bombs with over 100 runs and RBI’s, which is easily repeatable for many years to come.

Two main reasons why Bryant lands atop this list is because of his steal upside and the lineup in which he plays in. Bryant is athletic for his 6-foot-5 230-pound stature. He stole 13 bases in 2015, and eight in 2016, which gives him a good floor of steals compared to Arenado, Donaldson, and Machado, who combined for nine.

Also, batting ahead of Anthony Rizzo and other elite hitters in the Chicago Cubs offense will give Bryant a great chance to, once again, lead the league in runs. These two factors will help propel him ahead of the other elite third base options.

 

Manny Machado has all of the potential in the world. After having back to back 35 plus home run and 100 run seasons, he remains in the elite category of third basemen.

Machado has batted primarily third in 2016, and still failed to reach the 100 RBI plateau, which is unnerving, as he is set to primarily bat second in 2017. Don’t get me wrong, Machado still has elite value in the two hole, as he will bat around .300, while being a great source of runs, but if you’re looking for 100 RBI’s, Machado may fall short once again.

Machado also failed to steal a base in 2016, after stealing 20 bags in 2015. This may have been a way to limit the stress on his surgically repaired knee, or may have been due to the fact that the Baltimore Orioles were last in stolen base attempts per game, with .2.

The lack of stolen bases and RBI’s compared to Bryant, Donaldson, and Arenado forces me place Machado at the bottom of tier 1.

 

Tier 2

2017 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Will 2017 be a breakout season for veteran Kyle Seager? (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

5. Kyle Seager SEA

6. Jonathon Villar MIL

7. Adrian Beltre TEX

8. Matt Carpenter STL

9. Todd Frazier CWS

10. Evan Longoria TB

11. Anthony Rendon WAS

12. Justin Turner LAD

 

Kyle Seager has been a consistent source of 160 hits, .270 average, and 24 home runs per season, but 2017 will be the year he breaks out.

Seager will bat behind Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz, which will give him a great chance to finally surpass the 100 RBI mark.

The 29-year-old’s isolated power numbers have jumped from .185 to .221, showing that he has the potential to increase his power numbers as he continues through his prime years.

According to fantasypros.com, he is being selected as the 59th player off the board, and the 6th third basemen. Although Seager’s value does warrant a pick at this position, there are many other third basemen that offer similar value at a much lesser cost.

 

Justin Turner exploded onto the scene in 2016, having a career year, batting .275 with 27 home runs, 79 runs, and 90 RBI’s. The 32-year-old inked a 4-year, $64 million deal, that will lock him in as the everyday third basemen and three-hitter of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the near and distant and future.

Turner provides a great floor of value, as he has a career batting average of .282, while managing to have respectable strikeout and walk rates. I believe Turner is more than likely to repeat his power numbers, and could be a sneaky source of 100 RBI’s come 2017.

 

Tier 3

2017 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Can Jake Lamb recover from his atrocious second half n 2016? (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

13. Jake Lamb ARI

14. Maikel Franco PHI

15. Alex Bregman HOU

16. Jose Ramirez CLE

 

Jake Lamb is currently being severally overlooked, as he is being selected as the 19th third basemen, and 165th overall player in drafts.

Lamb finished 2016 with a .249 batting average, 29 home runs, and 91 RBI’s. This stat line may seem underwhelming, but Lambs first half of .291, 20 home runs, and 61 RBI’s suggests that there is elite potential here.

The 26-year-old will join a healthy Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that includes A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, and David Peralta, which will give him the opportunity to repeat or surpass his career high RBI total. Lamb will end up on the majority of my teams in 2017, as his ADP is much too low for his potential.

 

The sneaky top 20 MVP candidate in 2016, Jose Ramirez, will be another cheap source of production at third base in 2017. Ramirez is being selected as the 14th third basemen, which I believe is fairly high, although his ADP of 124 gives him significant value.

The 24-year-old will bat in the middle of the Cleveland Indians lineup, and depending on Michael Brantley’s health, may be behind Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, and Jason Kipnis, which will give him an incredible opportunity to drive in runs.

Ramirez, a career .275 hitter, is continuously improving, as he batted .312 with 11 home runs, 76 RBI’s, and 22 stolen bases in 2016. Investing in the young Indian will be highly beneficial come 2017.

 

Tier 4

2017 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Miguel Sano’s strikeout rate is a red flag heading into 2017. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

17. Miguel Sano MIN

18. Jung-Ho Kang PIT

19. Eduardo Nunez SFG

20. Ryon Healy OAK

21. Yangervis Solarte SD

 

Miguel Sano is currently being selected as the 128th player, and 15th third basemen in 2017. After hitting 18 home runs in 80 games in 2015, Sano increased his totals to 25 in 116 games in 2016. Miguel Sano’s power potential is juicy, although his 2016 strike out rate of 36% is a huge red flag.

Sano’s strikeout rates have continuously increased, which suggests that Sano may strikeout at an obnoxious rate again in 2017. Sano, who has already had a problem finding a position, may experience serious issues if his bat continues to struggle. I believe Sano is being drafted to high, as you can draft safer options in Maikel Franco or Jake Lamb later in drafts.

 

Yangervis Solarte is my sleeper of the year. The 29-year-old is primed for a breakout season, as he will have an everyday role for the first time in his career. He totaled 15 home runs and 71 RBI’s in just 109 games, which would have put him on pace for 22 home runs and 105 RBI’s.

Solarte will be the starting third basemen and cleanup hitter for the San Diego Padres in 2017. This will give him plenty of opportunity for RBI’s and runs, as this young Padres lineup could surprise people.

The ascension of young studs Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, and Manny Margot, can immensely improve the Friars underwhelming offense, which will positively impact Solarte’s stats.

His ADP of 319 makes him the 32nd third basemen taken off the board, which means he is currently going undrafted in majority of leagues. Solarte will make an incredible late round pick if you miss early on a third basemen.

 

Tier 5

2017 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Nick Castellanos’ fractured hand held him back in 2016, so will he improve in 2017? (Courtesy MLive.com)

22. Nick Castellanos DET

23. Mike Moustakas KAN

24. Adonis Garcia ATL

25. Eugenio Suarez CIN

26. Pablo Sandoval BOS

27. Travis Shaw MIL

28. Martin Prado MIA

29. Danny Valencia SEA

30. Yunel Escobar LAA

 

Nick Castellanos had his 2016 cut short due to a fractured left hand, although in 110 games, he managed to hit 18 home runs, while scoring 54 runs, and driving in 58 RBI’s. The Tigers six-hitter remains a solid source of runs and RBI’s while sporting a respectable career average of .265.

Castellanos is very safe option for later in the draft, and if he continues to progress, could be a top 15 third basemen. His current ADP of 239 makes his the 25th third basemen selected, which would be a price well worth paying.

 

Yunel Escobar has quietly been a solid fantasy producer his entire career, as he has a career batting average of .283, and has batted .314 and .304 in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Escobar hasn’t managed to play over 140 games since 2013, but if he can make that happen in 2017, he will be a great fantasy asset.

The 34-year-old will bat leadoff for the Mike Trout lead Los Angeles Angels. The talent behind him along with his great batting average gives him a chance to be an above average run scorer in 2017.

His ADP of 366 makes him the 37th third basemen being selected, which in my mind is astronomical. He will go undrafted in almost all leagues, although he offers great value in deeper leagues with large rosters.

 

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