Jameis Winston on the Rise

Jameis Winston on the rise in fantasy

Jameis Winston had an average fantasy season in 2016. He ranked outside of the top 12 on a per game basis but finished 10th in overall fantasy points at the quarterback position. He was, however, able to score at least 20 fantasy points in nine of his 16 games played and failed to post at least 15 fantasy points just once. Winston had 21.2 fantasy points per game that ranked 14th among QB’s. This was better then Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr who were all drafted higher then him. Jameis Winston is on the rise and poised to have a breakout 2017 fantasy football season. He is in route to being a top quarterback this year and you don’t want to miss it.

Winston should be expected to have a great season in large part due to the plethora of weapons he has. The Buccaneers signed wide receiver DeSean Jackson, drafted tight end O.J. Howard and they still have wide receiver Mike Evans and tight end Cameron Brate. This creates more opportunities as Winston is expected to have more designed roll-out plays called for him in 2017, according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times.

Jameis on the Rise

DeSean Jackson (Photo by: thefantasygreek.com)

Winston will have a deep threat to work with this season in Jackson. Last season Winston ranked towards the bottom in 40+ yard completions.  Jackson has proven he is one of the best deep threat receivers in the NFL, having five catches of 40+ yards that ranked seventh in the category. In fact, three of his four touchdowns came off from 40+ yard catches. With Jackson on the field, safeties will be forced to play a little deeper to respect his speed. This will open up the field for Winston to hit his underneath receivers.

The signing of Jackson doesn’t only help Winston, it also helps Evans. With Jackson’s speed making safeties play deeper, it will be more difficult to roll coverage in Evans’ direction. That will result in a lot more man-to-man coverages for Evans which he the size, speed and soft hands to take advantage of.

Winston will also have two tight ends to throw to. We have seen a quarterback by the name of Tom Brady excel with two reliable tight ends . Winston loved throwing to Brate last year as he was the second leading receiver on his team. Brate also led the league in touchdowns for tight ends and was second among receiving touchdowns inside of the 20-yard line.

O.J. Howard (Photo by: mmqb.si.com)

Winston will also have first round draft pick Howard to go along with Brate. Howard, from Alabama, could struggle early but he is still a weapon that defenses will have to respect. He can also be a valuable deep threat option along with Jackson. At Alabama three of his seven career touchdowns were from 40+ yards with two of them coming against Clemson in the National Championship game in 2015. Howard can be a game changer tight end the Winston can rely on especially a big target in the red zone.

Last but not least, the running game in Tampa is finally healthy. All of the moving parts in the backfield from last year have created a deeper, more confident stable of runners that offer multiple pass-catching options for Winston. This will help Winston from having to force the ball down field which led to 18 interceptions. Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers will be the primary pass-catchers out of the backfield and Doug Martin will pound the ball taking some of the pressure off Winston (after finishing is PED suspension).

Winston may not be a top five quarterback but he is a quarterback you should be targeting after the top players at the position are gone. He will rarely lose you a week as Tampa’s offense is built around him. Winston looks to be ranked between the 10th to 12th quarterback and thus won’t be drafted high. He could be the steal of your fantasy draft at quarterback as people aren’t quite sold on him yet. He enter as a high-end QB2 in most leagues but has the potential to be a QB1 as the season progresses.

 

Featured image from nytimes.com

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Quarterback rankings for the 2017 fantasy football season: 10-1

Here’s the list you’ve all been waiting for… Quarterback Rankings for the 2017 fantasy football season: 10-1. This is the group of quarterbacks that most of you will have on your teams, especially if you’re in a 10-team league or an 8-team league. Many people have their own opinions concerning the top 3 quarterbacks that are on this list, but believe me if you can snag one of hose guys, don’t hesitate.
10. Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)- Jameis is only going to get better. New targets such as OJ Howard, and Desean Jackson will team up with Mike Evans for the new look Tampa Bay offense this year. You might have to take him early, but Jameis is worth it.

(Photo: Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

9. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)- Russell Wilson may be the most talented quarterback in the NFL. He just doesn’t have the wide receivers or offensive line to crack the top 5. Looking to run the ball more this season, the Seahawks brought in Eddie Lacy but didn’t do too much to address the problem at wideout. Other than Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin, Wilson is lacking targets. He’s never a risky pick so if you want to go safe go with Wilson.

8. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)- Did Matt Stafford hit his peak last year? I sure think so. He’s a great player don’t get me wrong, and having Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick at full health will help, but I don’t see Stafford doing much better than last year. If you want to grab a elite level QB for the price of a second tier guy, Stafford is your man.

7. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)- I know what everyone is thinking, “Drew Brees deserves to be in the top 5!” Not this year. I can’t say anything bad about Brees except that he might hurt from the loss of Brandin Cooks. Michael Thomas will be great once again but it won’t be enough. I love Brees this year, I just believe that the other 6 quarterbacks will outplay him.

(http://sacrificefly.blogspot.com)

6. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)- Matt Ryan is an elite QB in the NFL. Mark my words because he will not be as good as he was last year. The dreaded super bowl hangover will haunt him and it will be hard to regain MVP status without Kyle Shanahan as his play caller. There’s nothing wrong with taking Matt Ryan this year, just don’t expect him to be a carbon copy of last year.

5. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)- Here is a prime example of a Super Bowl hangover. The combination of the big loss and the fact that he had to deal with a torn rotator cuff for the majority of the season, caused Cam to have the worst season of his career. Expect a bounce back year however. With new additions of Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel, the Panthers have the ability to have the most explosive offense in the NFL. The most important thing is if his offensive line can hold up.

4. Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders)- My way too early pick for MVP this year is Derek Carr. He’s young and hungry and looking for revenge from his early exit last year. Pair that with the receiving corps of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and the addition of Marshawn Lynch, Carr is in for a huge year.

3. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)- Another player who could easily be number one on this list if he could stay healthy. Andrew Luck has the size, arm strength, and arm accuracy to be successful in the NFL. He just needs more targets. Get him those targets and he is my number one quarterback.

(Foxboro, MA, 01/18/15) New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady throws in the second quarter of the AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, January 18, 2015. Staff Photo by Matt Stone

2. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)- This was by far the toughest decision I had to make. If you told me that Aaron Rodgers is the number one fantasy quarterback I’d have no problem with that, I just believe Brady is better. Rodgers has all the targets and a consistent offensive line, give him a legitimate running back and he’s my number one quarterback.

1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)- Isn’t life just great for Tom Brady? Coming off his fifth super bowl win, he gets Brandin Cooks, Dwayne Allen and Rex Burkhead, all of whom will help out Brady immensely. Give the already best quarterback in the league a great offensive line and an influx of great receivers and running backs, he’s only going to get better.

 

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Seattle Seahawks 2017 NFL Draft Profile

The Seattle Seahawks are up for day 24 of Draftmas.

Summary

Seattle had a good season, but ended up losing to the Falcons in the Divisional Round of the 2016 NFL Playoffs. Their 10-5-1 record was solid, but they do have some things to address in the draft to get back to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Russell Wilson (Photo courtesy: Wikipedia.org)

The pass offense was good under Russell Wilson, ranking 10th in the league, but the Seahawks had one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. Wilson carried the offense to score 22.1 points per game.

Wilson is and will be the franchise quarterback for years to come. Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise are both solid running backs and Eddie Lacy was signed in hopes he regain the form he had early in his career. At wide receiver Doug Baldwin continues to play well and Paul Richardson has played decently in his first three years, while Tyler Lockett returns from injury. Jermaine Kearse had a bad season last year, but should be able to do well again this season. Wide receiver may be addressed in the draft, but like running back, they most likely won’t take a wide receiver until late in the draft. Jimmy Graham is a great tight end and Seattle has Luke Wilson backing him up.

Offensive line, like the past few years, is a big area of concern for the Seahawks. Luke Joekel was signed to give some experience at left tackle, but he hasn’t played up to the hype of being the number one overall pick. Oday Oboushi was signed to play guard, but he isn’t that great either. Basically at this point they could use all the help they can get. They do have a center that played well last season in Justin Britt, but that may have just been a flash in the pan.

Seattle, as it usually does, had a great defense last season that ranked eighth against the pass and seventh against the rush last season.

Earl Thomas needs to get healthy after breaking his tibia last season, but if he is healthy, he and Kam Chancellor are the best safety duo in the league. The trade rumors surrounding Richard Sherman make it necessary for the Seahawks to acquire a corner. Even if Sherman doesn’t get traded, Seattle still likely needs to draft a corner or two.

Another linebacker could be used for their base 4-3 defense, but do already have K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. On the defensive line the Seahawks have a lot of versatile players, but could use a few more for depth.

Picks and Needs

The Seahawks have eight picks in the 2017 NFL Draft. Five are in the first three rounds, so they will be able to get a few impact players for next season.

First round: (1) No. 26

Second round: (1) No. 58

Third round: (3) No. 90, No. 102, No. 106

Fourth round: (0)

Fifth round: (0)

Sixth round: (1) No. 210

Seventh round: (2) No. 226, No. 244

These needs are in no particular order.

Offensive Needs:

Guard- Mark Glowinski and Oday Oboushi should not be starting. At some point the Seahawks have to start protecting Russell Wilson.

Tackle- Luke Joekel was signed, but he isn’t a sure thing. Gary Gilliam needs to be upgraded.
 Defensive Needs:

Defensive Line- With some versatile players on the defensive line, the Seahawks need to take some players for depth, regardless of position.

Cornerback- Sherman is in trade rumors, but even if he stays, they need help at corner.

Linebacker- Just one linebacker is needed to play alongside Wright and Wagner.

Targets and Thoughts

The picks here are who the Seahwaks could realistically get where they are drafting. There will be no trades.

First Round:

Pick #26: Garett Bolles, OT, Utah

Garett Bolles (Photo courtesy: denverpost.com)

Improving the offensive line has to be a top priority for the Seahawks. Bolles only has one year of starting experience at Utah, but has good mobility and flexibility for a tackle. He can play left tackle if Joekel fails, or start at right tackle.

Second Round:

Pick #58: Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida

Wilson is a tall corner, who has good speed. He is a good man to man cover corner, but is susceptible to pass interference calls. He doesn’t offer much in terms of run support and sometimes looks as if he doesn’t want to tackle anybody. The Seahawks will like his length and may think they can teach him their zone coverage scheme.

Third Round:

Pick #90: Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn

Adams can help the Seahawks by being a pass rusher from the defensive tackle position. This enables them to keep Michael Bennett on the outside. There are some questions with his motor, but Seattle will be able to get the most out of him.

Pick #102: Pat Elfein, OG/C, Ohio State

Elfein has experience at both guard and center at Ohio State and can be a good value pick in the third round to help out the offensive line immediately. This isn’t a great class for offensive linemen, but Elfein should be one of the few interior linemen able to have an impact at the NFL level.

Pick #106: Alex Anzalone, LB, Florida

Anzalone is a fast player that has experience playing outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme. He can start in the base defense for the Seahawks and learn from Wright and Wagner. He will need to improve to stay on the field in more than just the base defense.

Conclusion

Seattle is a perennial power in the NFL and just needs a few more things to make their quest for another Super Bowl happen. With a good draft this season, they can shore up some holes and help bring the city another Lombardi Trophy.

You can read all of the previous days of Draftmas here!

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Franchise Analysis – Seattle Seahawks

Since beating the Redskins in 2012, the Seattle Seahawks have been a perennial contender. With Russell Wilson and the legion of boom at the helm, there’s no doubt Seattle will look to compete for another title in 2017. However, this organization is not without flaws. Seattle’s eye-opening loss to Atlanta proves that there is still room to improve. The question is not where do they improve, but how. Between decreasing cap space and glaring positional needs, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have a tough task ahead of them.

2016 Evaluation – offense

It’s clear that Russell Wilson is a great quarterback and who this offense will revolve around moving forward. Wilson ended the 2015 season playing the best football of his career, but that momentum did not carry over to the start of the 2016 season. Overall, the Seahawks finished as tied for 18th in points scored and 12th in yards. Russell Wilson had his second-best statistical season in terms of completion percentage and his best in terms of yards. While his quarterback rating was the lowest yet, Wilson had never thrown more in his NFL career. Not only was Wilson asked to do more in 2016, he was also asked to work with less.

The former college basketball standout George Fant had a rude awakening this year, discovering how hard it is to play tackle in the National Football League (Courtesy of; MyNorthwest.com).

No, I am not referring to his playmakers on the outside or in the backfield. I am talking about the left and right tackle positions. Any marginal Seahawks fan knows that the tackle position was a liability this season. Here is how poor that position played relative to the rest of the league. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gary Gilliam and George Fant were rated as the 73rd and 80th best tackles among 80 qualified players. The Seattle Seahawks empirically had the worst tackle in the NFL protecting Wilson’s blindside. Both players were also liabilities as run blockers. This impacted the decreased production on the ground more than not having a “premiere” running back. Seattle absolutely must address both tackle positions this offseason if they hope to keep Russell Wilson upright in the immediate future.

Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham are great playmakers. Both players are rated as top 10 players at their position by PFF. The emergence of Paul Richardson as a compliment to Baldwin on the outside is also a good sign moving forward. The Seattle Seahawks will see an increased production from all of their current players is they find a way to upgrade their tackles in the offseason. This idea is simple, but not easy, given the salary cap situation of the team.

2016 Evaluation Defense

Since the Seahawks started their ascension to one of the best franchises in the NFL, they have had a dominant defense. The 2016 season was no different. This defense finished as the third in terms of points and fifth in yards. Their secondary, when healthy, is the best bar none. They have two great linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, as well as a premiere defensive lineman in Michael Bennett. Given all of these great defensive assets, there is still room to improve.

Despite his incredible play, Bobby Wagner remains egregiously underrated nationally as a top 10 defensive player (Courtesy of; Bleacher Report).

The biggest drop off in a relevant statistic for the Seahawks was their third down defense. In 2015, opposing offenses converted only 34.4 percent of their third downs. In 2016, the Seahawks only stopped their opponents on 38.7 percent of their third downs. That may not seem like much, but small percentages in this statistic matter. For example, there’s only a 3.5 percent difference between the first and 10th ranked third down defense and a 7.5 percent difference between the 15th and 32nd ranked third down defense.

The 4.3 percent difference from year to year leads to extended drives by the opposition and more points. That difference in production could have been the difference between winning another game and potentially getting a first round bye and a home divisional playoff game.

Of course, injuries played a role in this decline. Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, and Michael Bennett all missed at least four games at some point during the season. With the emerging information about Richard Sherman’s injury, it’s fair to say that he was impacted significantly throughout the season. It’s absolutely logical that this portion of the Seattle defense will improve next season as their key players return to full health.

Divisional Analysis

The Seattle Seahawks have been the class of the NFC West for the past five years; every divisional rival is building their team to beat the Seahawks. So what does Seattle need to do? They need to continue refining and reinforcing what got them to this point: a productive running game and a dominant defense.

Given the greatness of Russell Wilson, they won’t ever have an offense that goes through a running back, like Marshawn Lynch. But they need to be able to control the line of scrimmage in order to stay atop this division. When you have to face the Cardinals and Rams front seven twice a year, you need a physical offensive line and running game. We’ve already talked about their deficiency at both tackle positions.

With the 26th overall pick, Seattle has an opportunity to address this need. It is likely that Cam Robinson will be off the board by the time Seattle is on the clock. Other viable players at that position include Ryan Ramczyk from Wisconsin and Mike McGlinchey from Notre Dame. At this point, those are the only two players outside of Robinson that could warrant a first-round selection.

Injuries are never expected, but always occur. While you can’t predict being without your best defensive players for multiple games, you can do your best to prepare for that scenario. Seattle needs to add depth to their defensive line and secondary. Michael Bennett is unique because of his ability to play every defensive line position at a high level. Carroll Phillips from Illinois could be that player in the third or fourth round to add depth to an already physically gifted front four. While he has off-field issues, his talent could outweigh those issues if he remains a day two prospect.

Seattle could also go the route of drafting a long, athletic corner to bolster their secondary. This could come in the form of Des Lawrence from North Carolina, who has the size and would fit well in their cover 3 defense. However, his man to man skills are not NFL ready. If they decide to add depth, they will be using day two and three selections to do so.

Post Season Prospects

This section is meant to show non-playoff teams where and by how much they need to improve to be a playoff team. Clearly, Seattle was a playoff team, so I will use them as a means to back up why I use these metrics to determine post season probability.

Metrics like points scored and time of possession are straightforward. However, stats like yards per attempt and third down conversion give more insight about the team. Yards per attempt is one of the best stats to differentiate between quarterbacks. A high yards per attempt means a quarterback is consciously trying to throw the ball downfield as opposed to constantly checking down. Thus, this is the difference between a Russell Wilson and an Alex Smith and why one has had more post season success.

Wilson is always looking to make a play downfield as opposed to dumping the ball off after three seconds. Alex Smith missed a wide open Tyreek Hill twice during their playoff game because he doesn’t try to attack defenses deep. Being in the top ten in yards per attempt is a good sign for any offense. There are of course areas in which this offense can improve. The biggest theme of this entire analysis is that if the Seahawks had just average tackle play, they might still be playing. Being in the bottom third of the league in sacks allowed is the direct result of such poor tackle play.

From a defensive perspective, this team just needs to stay healthy. We outlined their decrease in third down efficiency, but it’s not because they aren’t getting to the quarterback. This means that problem is in the secondary and with so many injuries, it was bound to impact their play. I firmly believe that is also why the turnover numbers are low for this unit. Health permitting, the 2017 Seahawks will be better on third down as well as accumulating turnovers.

Predictions

Pete Carroll and John Schneider need to have an excellent off season in order to overcome this teams sanctions and salary cap situation (Courtesy of; The Seattle Times).

As I eluded to earlier, the Seattle Seahawks have a unique challenge facing their franchise this offseason. The salary of Russell Wilson and their elite defensive players has left this team strapped for cap space. The Seahawks have just over $4.8 million in cap space. This is not enough to sign substantial free agents to upgrade their tackle positions. They have 14 players who become free agents this year, but none of them will create significant cap space if let go.

Ordinarily, this wouldn’t be a big issue, but with the emerging story concerning Seattle’s second-round draft pick, it becomes a pressing one. Yes, they have found good players in the late rounds of the draft. However, no franchise can depend on striking gold with a day three pick. Given their salary cap and draft situation, I don’t see this team being able to get all the adequate help they need. With that being said, I believe the Seattle Seahawks will finish 9-7 behind the Cardinals, but will make the playoffs as a wild card team.

 

 

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Keys to the NFL Divisional Playoffs

NFL fans and media rarely agree on much. However, I think we can all agree that Wild Card weekend did not produce much excitement or competitive football. While it is a little early in the week to pick the divisional playoff matchups, here is a key to each.

 

Seahawks at Falcons- Are the Falcons ready for the big time?

Seattle should have zero concerns about being ready for a game like this. They have played in dozens of them over the last handful of years. Like always, the defense will limit scoring opportunities and the Seahawks will ask Russell Wilson to make a few key throws to get the win.

Atlanta is a different story. Despite Matt Ryan having an MVP worthy season, the Falcons have flown mostly under the radar and have not been placed in the glamorous national TV windows very often. A scenario where Atlanta’s offense simply scores too much for Seattle to keep up is conceivable. However, a scenario where Atlanta folds under newfound spotlight is just as conceivable. With Earl Thomas out, Seattle’s defense is a tad more vulnerable. Given what the Falcons are capable of on offense and their much improved defense, it is now or never for Atlanta.

Texans at Patriots – Houston needs some kind of early break

The Texans are 15.5 point underdogs for a reason. New England shut them out early in the year with a third-string quarterback. Fast forward a few months and now Tom Brady is back in the fold for New England. As ominous as that may sound for Houston, anything is possible. If that was not the case, games like this would never be played.

There are a few things that work in Houston’s favor. First, the coaching staff has numerous ties to New England. There isn’t much the Patriots can do that would surprise the AFC South champs. Also, much-maligned quarterback Brock Osweiler had the best game of his young career last year in Denver against the Patriots defense.

The Texans are here because of its defense. As atrocious as the quarterback play has been, the top-ranked defense has been that good. It will be up to that unit to force a turnover that leads to easy points early in the game and give the massive underdogs some belief. A big play on special teams would also serve the same purpose. Houston cannot fall in a big hole early if they want any chance at all.

Steelers at Chiefs – Steelers pass protection

No matter how good he is at sandbagging his injuries, there is no way Ben Roethlisberger goes from a walking boot to fully healthy in a week. Thus, those trademark Roethlisberger scrambles under pressure to extend plays are likely off the table. It is up to Pittsburgh’s offensive line to keep Kansas City’s pass rushers away from their franchise quarterback.

Photo Courtesy of steelersdepot.com

This will not be an easy task. The Chiefs have three or four guys that are capable of chasing down any quarterback in this league. Their defense is led by a healthy Justin Houston. Le’Veon Bell will not run wild against the Chiefs like he did against Miami last week, but he will need to run well enough to take some heat off of the offensive line as well. Looking back on it, Pittsburgh’s 43-14 early-season blowout of Kansas City is one of the true oddities of the NFL season. This game will be a lot closer one way or the other.

 

 

Packers at Cowboys – Green Bay’s third-down defense

This may be the toughest game of the weekend to call, but it is the easiest to size up. The only way anyone is going to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packers right now is by keeping their offense on the sideline. Dallas has been near the top of the league in time of possession and third-down conversions all year long.

Photo Courtesy of thelandryhat.com

The Packers defense has struggled to get off the field on third down, raking just 22nd in that category. Dallas will dance with what brought them here. They need to stay in manageable down and distance scenarios with a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott. It is up to Clay Matthews and company to ensure that Rodgers gets enough opportunities to work his magic. Here is to hoping at least one of these games is half as good as Monday’s national championship game I fell asleep during.

 

 

 

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Week Eleven NFL Picks Against the Spread

Week 11 in the NFL started with a familiar script, special teams dooming the Saints and me being on the wrong side of a Thursday night spread, even though it was by just a half point. I posted a 7-7 mark last week. Highlights were calling the Broncos’ and Seahawks’ upset wins. 71-77-6 is where I start the week. My picks are bolded, upsets have an asterisk and all spreads are from rtsports.com at the time of my writing. Let’s go.

*Cardinals at Vikings (-2.5) – I have no feel for this game at all. Despite their four game losing streak, the Vikings defense is still giving up just 17 points a game. Again, they are on a four game losing streak. So, what that really means is the offense cannot move the ball against anyone at the moment, including the hot and cold Cardinals… I think. Ari 17 Min 12

*Ravens at Cowboys (-7.5) – This is one of two games I feel very strongly about this week. Folks, I have been saying it all year as well as before the season. The Ravens are a really dangerous team that will be around in January. The offense has come alive after two divisional wins. With Joe Flacco and those receivers, it was just a matter of time. On the other side of the ball, gone are names like Ray Lewis, Chris McAllister and Ed Reed, but they have finally been suitably replaced by names like CJ Mosley, Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan. This is easily the best defense the Cowboys have seen all year. They are top-ranked against the rush.

 

As a general rule, great defense stops great offense. As good as Dak Prescott has been, Ezekiel Elliott will be at least somewhat neutralized here. I do not think Prescott can do it all on his own. The Cowboys are a good football team, but other good football teams should be able to exploit their flaws. They finally run into one of those here. Bal 31 Dal 20

Bills at Bengals (-2.5) – I am excited to be going to this game. It is a coin flip. These teams are similar. Both are loaded with firepower, particularly on offense, but they find themselves fading in the AFC playoff race. This is an elimination game. Buffalo’s back may already be broken. They really outplayed Seattle last time out, but have nothing to show for it. Given preseason expectations, the Bengals should be more desperate and play well. As a native Cincinnatian (who is by no means a fan), that is terrible logic to use when evaluating the Bengals, but it is all I have got. Cin 27 Buf 23

Bears at Giants (-7.5) – We are getting late enough into the season that it is not a bad idea to start looking at trends. There is one that made me change my pick here. This season, all but one of New York’s games have been decided by seven points or fewer. The Bears are awful and after getting annihilated last week in Tampa Bay, the resurgence of Jay Cutler appears to have only lasted one week, but a trend like that should never be ignored. NYG 23 Chi 17

Jaguars at Lions (-6.5) – With division rivals Green Bay and Minnesota limping along at the moment, this may be Detroit’s year to make a real run at the big time. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level. I have seen nothing from Jacksonville this year that makes me think this will be close. Det 40 Jac 21

Steelers (-7.5) at BrownsFor the first time in my almost 24 years of life, the Steelers are flat out bad on defense. Giving up 380+ yards per game including well over 100 yards per game on the ground will not get you in the playoffs. It does not matter how good the offense is. There are major issues that need correcting in Steelers country. Fortunately for them, the Browns are all that is on tap this week. The Steelers are still plenty good enough to handle that task. Pit 34 Cle 24

Bucs at Chiefs (-7.5)- Boy, there are certainly easier places to go than Arrowhead Stadium if you are trying to build off a win last week the way the Bucs are. Kansas City continues to win games by playing mistake free football, having an opportunistic defense, and doing just enough on offense. As always, that style may have a ceiling on it come playoff time, but it will do the trick for now. KC 20 TB 10

Titans at Colts (-3)- It has been a very long time since I whiffed on a football game as bad as I did be Tennessee/Green Bay game last week. The Titans are a legitimate contender in that division and a lot better than I thought. Also, it is so nice to see running back DeMarco Murray back in a system that suits his skill set. However, much like the Titans, the Colts may have really found something their last time out, which was also against Green Bay. In what could be a shootout between two young and hot quarterbacks, I trust Andrew Luck a bit more than Marcus Mariota. Ind 30 Ten 24

Dolphins (-1) at Rams- This is the other game I feel very strongly about. In my house, we call this a “Nova game.” A game my dad and I would bet our beloved dog, Nova on. Thankfully, this is only hypothetical. We would have lost her many times by now. In all seriousness, Miami is rolling behind Jay Ajayi. Conversely, while his debut does add a layer of intrigue here, one can only assume that there is a good reason why Jeff Fisher and the Rams had to be dragged, kicking, and screaming to start top draft pick Jared Goff at quarterback. Mia 35 LA 17

photo from oddshark.com

photo from oddshark.com

Patriots (-13) at 49ers- As good as the Patriots are, the 49ers are that bad. However, the match-up is not terrible for them here. Without Rob Gronkowski, none of New England’s pass catchers are to be feared. The extra attention defenses must pay to Gronk creates more favorable match-ups for everyone else. Chip Kelly’s Eagles gave Bill Belichick’s Pats fits last year. These two things are enough to make this much closer than most people think. NE 35 SF 30

Eagles at Seahawks (-6.5) – The NFL’s surprise of the year is the way the Eagles have played. With a rookie head coach and quarterback, they are right there in the playoff race, but this is a tall order for Carson Wentz and company. With Russell Wilson finally healthy and the defense playing up to their capabilities, Seattle gets my vote for the best team in football right now. I am not sure how much the opponent matters to the Seahawks at the moment. It certainly doesn’t hurt that they get a rookie quarterback in their building. This week will be the start of Seattle catching Dallas for the number one seed in the NFC. Sea 31 Phi 17.

*Packers at Redskins (-3) – I am giving the Packers one more week before I bail on them. The good news is Aaron Rodgers and the offense were not the problem last week. If you give up 47 points, you are not going to win. The Redskins always put up huge yardage numbers, but really struggle in the red zone. They will lose by kicking one too many field goals Sunday night. GB 35 Was 32

MNF from Mexico City: Texans at Raiders (-5.5) – If the NFL is insistent on playing games outside our borders, this is how it should be done, in Mexico featuring two teams from cities with significant Mexican populations. As for the game itself, I struggle to buy into both these first place clubs long term. The Raiders are still committing way too many penalties. Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler is the weak link in Houston. You can’t hide the quarterback forever in this league. Houston’ defense is carrying them and the Raiders offense is doing the same in Oakland. This will be really close. The team with the MVP candidate at quarterback will do just enough to get over the finish line, but taking the points is smart here. Oak 24 Hou 21

photofromamericanfootballinternational.com

photofromamericanfootballinternational.com

 

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Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Week 10 is off and running in the NFL. I was on the wrong side of a ten point spread Thursday night, picking the Browns is rarely a good idea. Last week, I was a pedestrian 6-5-2 and am now 64-69-6 on the year. All spreads are from rtsports.com at the time of my writing. My picks are bolded and outright upsets have an asterisk. Here goes nothing.

*Falcons at Eagles (PK) – For any site to have three pick ‘em games in one week is quite rare. The first of those match ups features two pleasant surprises. I struggle to see either team making a real playoff run, but Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is playing at an MVP level for now and the Falcons offense is by far the best unit in this game. That is good enough for me. Atl 30 Phi 24

*Bears at Bucs (PK) – I like the Bucs on paper, but something is missing. I am not sure what. Their young offensive talent is still too inconsistent. Meanwhile, I had the bears in the playoffs this year. I am never afraid to own up to a horrible prediction. Right now, Tampa Bay has a home-field disadvantage. They are 3-17 in their last 20 home games. On the other end, Chicago seemed reenergized on both sides of the ball in support of returning quarterback Jay Cutler last time out. I expect both trends to continue. Chi 21 TB 17

*Broncos at Saints (-2.5) – This is the kind of game I would feel much more comfortable betting five minutes in, but that is frowned upon. Last week was a humbling experience for the Broncos and their fans, myself included. However, the much-maligned Saints defense could be just the thing Denver needs to get the running game going. If that happens, everything else follows suit for the Broncos, including the play of first-year starter Trevor Siemian. However, Drew Brees and the Saints are always going to score points and the Broncos defense is banged up at every position level. Yet, it is still better than anything the Saints have on defense. Either the Saints roll here or Denver’s superiority in two of the three phases is just enough to get the job done. I will go with the latter. Den 31 NO 28

Packers (-2.5) at Titans- Yes, the Packers are struggling on offense, but the lack of respect here is stunning. On their worst day they are significantly better than anything Tennessee has to offer. The Titans are hanging around in a bad division, but continue to turn the football over at an alarming rate. A pair of defensive scores led to their demise last week in San Diego. It should surprise no one if that happens again here. Like the rest of the AFC South, Tennessee has really struggled outside the division the last couple years. They are improving, but not ready for a team that is capable of playing like Green Bay can, even if they are struggling. GB 31 Ten 20

Texans at Jaguars (PK) – With the way Brock Osweiler has played, I am not sure how the Texans are 5-3 and in first place, but they are. That same bad division referenced above certainly helps. They stay inside the division and notch another win this week. Hou 24 Jac 13

Chiefs at Panthers (-3) – Carolina is starting to wake up. They are nowhere close to where they were last year and it may be too little too late for the playoffs, but I certainly would not want to play them. This is just a bad matchup for Kansas City. Alex Smith, who is returning from injury relies on taking what the defense gives him. Based on the last two weeks, the Panthers defense will give him nothing. Kansas City is not built to play against flashy teams with offensive firepower. Make no mistake, the Panthers have that even though they have struggled this year. Car 27 KC 19

Rams at Jets (-2) – Good God what an awful game. In terms of quarterback play, these might be the two worst teams in football right now. Yet, both are resistant to playing the young quarterbacks they have on the bench. No one seems to understand why. The only reasonable explanation I can offer is holding on to miniscule playoff hopes. The Jets have a little more talent at the skill positions. Veteran running back Matt Forte is still a big time playmaker. He will be the difference in an ugly game. NYJ 16 LA 10

Vikings at Redskins (-3) – Remember when the Vikings were undefeated and Mike Zimmer was the second coming of Vince Lombardi? Yeah, me neither. Due to a mix of injuries and players simply coming back down to earth, Minnesota’s season is slowly falling apart. The defense is still very good, but the patchwork offensive line is dragging the entire other side of the ball down the drain. The Redskins should have just enough offensive juice behind Kirk Cousins to pull out a tight game. Was 20 Min 14

Dolphins at Chargers (-3.5) – Here is your sneaky good game of the week. What Jay Ajayi has done for the Dolphins is incredible. His 500+ yards rushing combined in the last three games has taken the Dolphins from dead in the water to a team that could fight for a playoff spot. Unfortunately for them, San Diego is the best last-place team anyone has ever seen. They are just in the wrong division in the wrong year. If games were 58 minutes rather than 60 they would have just a single defeat, but they have closed games much better in the last month. Philip Rivers is white-hot and running back Melvin Gordon has finally found his NFL sea legs. Should be a fun one, I will take San Diego pulling away late. SD 32 Mia 21

Cowboys at Steelers (-2.5) – While last week’s loss may really hurt the Steelers down the road, in the short term, it means nothing. Ben Roethlisberger had no business being out there last week. The coaching staff should have saved him from himself. Of course he said he was okay to play. He is a competitor. In theory, he will only get healthier going forward. As good as Dak Prescott has been, he really has not been forced to keep up with an elite quarterback in a shootout. That is exactly what this game will turn in to. Until I see it, I will have my doubts. Pit 35 Dal 28.

photo from timesunion.com

photo from timesunion.com

49ers at Cardinals (-13.5) – This pick has nothing to do with Xs and Os and everything to do with value. The 49ers are dreadful in every way you can imagine, particularly on defense. Chip Kelly is a college coach, and there is nothing wrong with that. Apparently, he is the only one who does not realize it. Despite all that, the Cardinals are not 13.5 points better than anyone in this league. AZ 33 SF 24

*Seahawks at Patriots (-7.5) – Russell Wilson is finally starting to look like himself and Seattle’s defense will always travel well, even to New England. Believe it or not, the Patriots are made up of humans just like every other team. The only style that occasionally disrupts Tom Brady and the offense are fast, physical defenses who can rush the passer. See Seattle. So, why not go out on a limb? Sea 24 NE 20

photo from espn.com

photo from espn.com

MNF: *Bengals at Giants (-2.5) – Two teams with very high ceilings and very low floors in terms of their level of play. The Giants as a home favorite scare me. The Bengals in primetime scare me. I wouldn’t advise putting a nickel on this game, but the Bengals are a little more balanced on offense. Cin 27 NYG 23

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Week Nine NFL Picks Against the Spread

It is time for another week of NFL picks against the spread. I was just 5-8 last week, but did call the Bears upset of the Vikings. This week, I whiffed on the Thursday night game again and will start from behind the eight ball. 58-63-4 is my record for the year. My picks are bolded. Outright upsets have an asterisk. Read ‘em and weep.

Cowboys (-7) at Browns- With everyone continuing to sing the praises of Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, the gritty Browns are tempting here, but I just cannot do it. They are bringing a plastic knife to a gun fight each week. I expect Dallas to scrape by, but we could view the quarterback situation very differently come Monday morning. Dal 19 Cle 9

Lions at Vikings (-6) – Toughest pick of the week. After a hot start, the Vikings are slowly revealing their true selves. With zero production in the run game and an offensive line that has struggled to block a barstool the last two weeks, there are many nervous people in Minnesota. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s sudden resignation won’t help things in the short term. However, the defense will carry them to a win here. The Lions had a really bad performance on offense last week in Houston. A trip to Minnesota will not fix those issues. The Vikings are better equipped to win an ugly game. Min 17 Det 15

Jaguars at Chiefs (-7.5) – Jacksonville’s young talent on offense just has not come around, it seems to be time for yet another round of major changes there. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs play smart, disciplined, and complete football to win their games. Nick Foles is a more than capable replacement for dinged up quarterback Alex Smith.   This is the week the Chiefs emerge as the only real threat to Denver in the AFC West. KC 26 Jac 14

Jets at Dolphins (-3.5) – When was the last time a single player changed a team’s fortunes the way Jay Ajayi has for the Dolphins? He was not even active for the season opener. All he has done since getting a shot, is post back to back 200 yard rushing games. Most important, he has taken some heat off quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is not good enough to carry an offense. Miami has gone from dead in the water to a team that may get on a real roll. The Jets beat the Browns last week, yay. They still stink. Mia 27 NYJ 17

photo from espn.com

photo from espn.com

 

Eagles at Giants (-2.5) – Both these rivals are unpredictable and they tend to produce nutty games against each other. When in doubt look at the quarterbacks. Eli Manning > Carson Wentz. NYG 28 Phi 24.

Steelers at Ravens (-1) – These division foes always play fantastic games, no matter their records. This will be no different. Despite the Steelers having much better team results in recent years, the Ravens have won four out of the last five head to head matchups. If Ben Roethlisberger does play, how could he possibly be 100% about three weeks removed from knee surgery? The AFC North turns into a mess at the top with a Ravens win. Bal 24 Pit 21

Panthers (-3) at Rams – The Panthers may have finally gotten their mojo back last week. It may be too little too late for the playoffs, but the offensively inept Rams should not be an issue. Car 21 LA 10

Saints (-3.5) at 49ers – A win here gets the Saints back to .500, plenty could enough to be a factor in the NFC wild card race. The defense has gone from God awful to just bad. Despite splitting their last two games they have held opponents to under 30 points. Most times, that is going to be more than enough for Drew Brees and the offense. The 49ers are just dreadful in every phase of the game. The defense is spent by halftime because the offense cannot stay on the field. If I am Chip Kelly, I jump back to the college game as soon as I can. He is a college coach. There is nothing wrong with that. NO 38 SF 17

photo from cbssports.com

photo from cbssports.com

Colts at Packers (-7.5) – Andrew Luck is still forced to do it all on his own for the Colts. Much like last week, he is up against a pretty solid opponent. The offense in Green Bay finally returned to normal last week, and they are not facing the high powered Falcons offense this week. No drama here. GB 31 Ind 21

Titans at Chargers (-4) – The Titans are the worst .500 team I have ever seen. Meanwhile, the Chargers are the best below .500 team I have ever seen. Tennessee has a negative point differential. Conversely, if games were 58 minutes rather than 60, the Chargers would be 7-1. San Diego has closed games better lately. Expect them to roll here. SD 31 Ten 17

*Broncos at Raiders (-2)- My only outright upset pick of the week should surprise no one who knows me or reads my stuff. Even if I thought Oakland was going to win, it is not in me as a human being to pick the Raiders to beat the Broncos. This used to be a great rivalry, it is awesome to have the game be so meaningful again.

In this matchup, Denver will be able to do whatever it wants on offense, just like every other Raiders opponent this year. Oakland is allowing six yards a play on defense. Oakland’s offense has had to put up video game numbers to win games, including 600+ yards to get by in overtime last week against Tampa. If anyone thinks something like that will happen against the Broncos defense, they are sadly mistaken. The Raiders deserve a ton of credit for being where they are, but play time is over. Den 34 Oak 24

MNF: Bills at Seahawks (-7) – The Seahawks offense is just plain bad right now. Only Russell Wilson knows if he is truly healthy. Despite last week’s loss, any doubt about the defense is unfounded. Holding the Saints to 25 points in their building is nothing to sneeze at. Buffalo’s run first style keeps this close, but Seattle finds a way as they so often do. Sea 26 Buf 20

 

 

Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread

I am back with my fourth week of NFL picks against the spread. I was a very respectable 8-7-1 last week. I was all over the Broncos and Raiders upsets, while the Eagles and Vikings continued to make me look stupid. With the Bengals covering a 7.5 point spread last night, I am now 21-26-2 on the year. I am inching ever so close to “the black” as they would say in Vegas. As usual, my picks are in bold and outright upsets have will have an asterisk.

Colts (-2.5) at Jaguars (London) – I expect the Colts to carry the momentum from last week’s comeback win across the pond. They still are not playing well. In fact, I just do not think they are very good, but I like the matchup. Jacksonville is dead in the water. A 0-4 start may be the end for Gus Bradley. Ind 24 Jac 13

Bills* at Patriots (PK) – This is my gutsiest pick of year. My logic? Rex Ryan coached teams have always played the Pats well, even with Tom Brady. The line is the way it is because no one knows who will be playing quarterback for New England, but it won’t be Brady. I still have enough respect for Rex Ryan as a defensive coach to think he can fluster Garoppolo, Brissett, or Edelman. Buf 17 NE 16

Panthers (-3) at Falcons- The Falcons are better than I thought, but I think time will show that Cam Newton and the Panthers are a better football team. Moreover, in this case, they are desperate. 1-3 is a tough hole to dig out of, even for a team as talented as Carolina. Car 30 Atl 22

Browns* at Redskins (-7.5) – The Browns controlled much of the game against Miami last week. Rookie quarterback Cody Kessler protected the football well. Yet, they managed to lose in typical Cleveland fashion. I predict they will get out of their own way this week against the Washington team that really isn’t doing much well on offense despite a road upset of the Giants last week. Cle 28 Was 24

Lions (-3) at Bears- This Lions offense is no joke. Matt Stafford has almost a four to one touchdown to interception ratio since week 10 last year. Marvin Jones suddenly looks like an elite wide receiver. I do expect professional pride to kick in for Chicago at some point. They are the worst team in football three weeks in and a banged up mess. However, they will keep this closer than it should be. Det 30 Chi 20

photo from zambio.com

photo from zambio.com

Raiders at Ravens (-3.5) – I like where both teams are headed. However, I have been on the Ravens bandwagon since before the season started. It is a bandwagon that not nearly enough people are on. This will be a shootout between two quarterbacks that are really playing well right now. Get with the program folks. Baltimore is as good as anybody in this league right now. I also like the fact that they have played and won a few close games already this year. Bal 35 Oak 28

Seahawks (-1) at Jets- This is the toughest pick of the week for me. Russell Wilson is banged up and Seattle is coming east. However, this is a big early-season game for two teams that have legitimate playoff aspirations. Given Seattle’s track record in spots like this and the Jets horrid red zone performance lately, I will take Seattle in a low-scoring fistfight. Sea 13 NYJ 10

Titans at Texans (-4.5) – Houston was embarrassed last week in New England. I am not crazy about them, but they are much better than last week would indicate, particularly on defense, even without J.J. Watt. Throw in the fact that Titans’ quarterback Marcus Mariota leads the league in turnovers and I see a blowout. Hou 31 Ten 13

Broncos (-3) at Bucs- I thought this might be the week I would be forced to pick against my beloved Broncos. However, I thought they would be an eight point favorite here. Tampa is coming off a dreadful home loss to the Rams. Denver is riding high after a fourth quarter offensive explosion put away Cincinnati last week. I am very wary of Tampa’s talented young offense, but a field goal is simply too few points to give up with a way Denver is playing right now. Den 26 TB 20

Cowboys (-2) at 49ers- I am stunned the number is so small here. The Cowboys have settled in to a nice “hold the fort down” type rhythm on offense with Dak Prescott while Tony Romo recovers. Everyone is making plays. The defense has not been great, but just good enough. San Francisco’s stellar opening-night performance has proven to be an admiration. It will not be long before Blaine Gabbert hears Colin Kaepernick’s footsteps at the quarterback position. Dal 24 SF 9.

Rams at Cardinals (-7.5) – You have a 1-2 team that is favorite by more than a touchdown over a 2-1 team. It is just strange to look at, but I understand it. Despite not being nearly as bad as most folks thought after their season-opening shutout loss, the Rams lack the firepower to keep up with the Cardinals offense. Much like the Panthers, the Cardinals are desperate to get dialed in this week. AZ 31 LA 17

Saints* at Chargers (-4) – Anytime a team gets humiliated on national television, I like them the next week, especially when Drew Brees is the quarterback. The difference between these two is not that much to begin with. NO 34 SD 31

Chiefs at Steelers (-4.5) – This is pretty straightforward. Kansas City is a really solid football team, but they do not have the horses to keep up with Pittsburgh on the road. Not many teams do. I am anxious to see Le’veon Bell reenter the fold for the Steelers this week. Pit 35 KC 24

photo from newsbake.com

photo from newsbake.com

 

MNF: Giants* at Vikings (-5) – Another week and another pick against the Vikings for me, but this has less to do with them and more to do with the opponent. If this Giants’ offense cannot score on this Vikings defense, I do not know who can. They have three pass catchers who would be the top wideout on any other team in this league. Also, the Vikings are still in the bottom five of almost every major offensive statistical category. The defense has scored almost as many points as the offense. That just is not a sustainable winning model in this league. Additionally, Eli Manning typically follows a bad performance with a great one. NYG 21 Min 17.

Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread

I am back with my third week of NFL picks against the spread. I am struggling to get a handle on the league. I was just 6-10 last week. The highlight was calling the Falcons upset of the Raiders. I am now 13-19-1 for the year. As usual, the minus sign denotes the favorite, my pics are in bold, and outright upsets have an asterisk next to them. I was on the right side of a Patriots pick ‘em Thursday night. Hopefully, that is a sign that I am starting to turn things around.

Cardinals (-3.5) at Bills- This reeks of a trap game. Knowing that, I’m going to take the bait anyway. Buffalo is off to a disastrous start in every way imaginable. However, desperate teams are dangerous. Throw in the fact that they are at home in facing a west coast opponent coming east, and conditions for the upset become all the more ripe. In spite of me basically predicting my own demise here, Arizona is too superior of a team on paper for me not to swallow such a small amount of points. AZ 23 Buf 17

photo from nyupstate.com

photo from nyupstate.com

Redskins at Giants (-3) -The Giants as a home favorite always scares me. However, Eli Manning is still Eli Manning and he now has three dynamic pass catchers were healthy. Additionally, with all the reports of infighting within the Redskins this week, their season could turn ugly quickly. They are winless and desperate, but I am not sure they are capable. Nyg 30 Was 14

Ravens (-1.5) at Jaguars- This line shows that the rest of the world is still not on the Ravens bandwagon that I have been on since well before the season started. I will swallow 1.5 points to take an undefeated team over a winless team that did not bother to show up last week every single time. Much like Buffalo though, Jacksonville is desperate to live up to lofty preseason expectations for their young talent. Thus, I do not expect Blake Bortles and company to be an easy out. Bal 24 Jac 15

Browns at Dolphins (-10) – This is a pretty simple one for me. The Browns are terrible and on their third quarterback in his many weeks due to injuries. Additionally, I highly doubt Cody Kessler is anywhere close to ready to start an NFL game. Despite all that, I am not convinced Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins are ten points better than anyone in this league. Watch this game at your own risk. It will not be pretty on either side. Mia 17 Cle 12

Broncos* at Bengals (-3.5) – Take anything I say about this game with a grain of salt. I was born and raised in Cincinnati and come from a family of Bengals season-ticket holders. However, somehow I became a lifelong Denver fan. I will be in attendance for this one. Moreover, I will be the family black sheep all day Sunday. In reality, these two teams are very even matchup with each other well. Cincinnati will be tough first road test for young Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian who has handled himself very well to this point. The key to this game will be the Bengals ability (or lack thereof) to protect quarterback Andy Dalton. For me though, family bragging rights are on the line. So, of course I’m taking the Broncos. Den 27 Cin 21

Lions at Packers (-7) -I would not be shocked at all if we see a push here. However, since that is no fun, I will go with Green Bay for a couple reasons. First, the media has been throwing dirt on them all week, particularly quarterback Aaron Rodgers. When that is the case, they always seem to respond. Also, Detroit really struggles at Lambeau Field. They play there every year. Last year marked their first win there since 1991. GB 30 Det 22

Vikings at Panthers (-7) – The Vikings have also proven me wrong at every turn in this young season. Rejoice Vikings fans! I am doubting them again. Cam Newton and the Panthers really found their swagger last week against San Francisco. Everything went a little too well for Sam Bradford in his Minnesota debut last week. The injuries must catch up with this team at some point. Car 31 Min 17

Raiders* at Titans (-1.5) – This may be my favorite pick of the week. Tennessee showed some impressive grit in a comeback win on the road last week. However, there is a trend here that cannot be ignored. The Titans are an embarrassing 3-20 in their last 23 home games. It is a safe bet that the Raiders would probably be a favorite on a neutral field. They have more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Tennessee would die for a single player anywhere near Raiders linebacker Kahlil Mack’s level. Oak 31 Ten 20

Rams at Bucs (-5) – The Rams still have not found the end zone. Tampa Bay is much better than their 33 point loss to the Cardinals last week would indicate, and will be eager to show it. The Rams finally score a touchdown, but the Bucs cover. TB 20 LA 10

Steelers (-3.5) at Eagles- I am still far from sold on the Steelers, particularly on defense. However, I am selling all of my Eagles stock right now. I see no possible way it can go any higher in 2016. However, they have proven me wrong for two weeks. So, I suppose stranger things have happened. Carson Wentz falls back down to earth in a big way. Pit 28 Phi 10

Jets at Chiefs (-3) – Evenly matched teams that play a similar “smash mouth” style. This is my kind of game. Both run games and defenses will make a few plays. The Arrowhead Stadium home-field advantage is the difference here. KC 20 NYJ 14

Chargers at Colts (-2.5) – If I could stay away from this game, I would. I have no clue here. You have two teams with really high ceilings and really low floors. I hope everyone understands that metaphor. When that is the case go with the home team… I guess. Ind 34 SD 31

49ers at Seahawks (-10) – San Francisco continued to exceed expectations on offense last week, but they are still working progress in all phases of the game Seattle is just not the dominant team that they have been in years past, at least not yet. Hopefully, Russell Wilson is healthy, but I don’t think anyone really knows the answer there. I will be stunned if Seattle finds a way to lose to a second straight vastly inferior opponent, but they will have to sweat this one out. Sea 19 SF 14

Bears at Cowboys (-6.5) – Another tough one here. Credit to Vegas, this is right about where I would have set the line had anyone asked. The Bears are a beat up mess. They will go into this game with the NFL’s most recycled quarterback, Brian Hoyer as their starter. However, I am just not sure if Dak Prescott and Dallas are really capable of blowing any opponent out of the water. They will cover, but barely Dal 27 Chi 20

photo from sportingnews.com

photo from sportingnews.com

MNF: Falcons at Saints (-2.5) – Here is another pick I really like this week. Often times, I think emotions are overhyped when trying to determine the outcome of football game, but not here. Monday marks the 10 year anniversary of the Saints return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. They are facing the same opponent as they were that night too. That night also produced the iconic image of reserve Saints defender Steve Gleason seen below. Gleason is now battling ALS. There is no way New Orleans is losing this football game in that building on that night. NO 28 Atl 20

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