2016 Cy Young Candidate Struggles

What is wrong with these 2016 Cy Young candidates?

Winning back-to-back Cy Young awards is quite the feat, as it has only been done by seven different players since the year 1956, most notably in 2013 and 2014 by Clayton Kershaw. Repeating as Cy Young is rarely anticipated, although having severe struggles are the last thing expected.

In 2017, we have seen six individuals suffer a hangover from their 2016 Cy Young-caliber seasons. In this piece, I will discuss why the player is struggling and what to expect from them moving forward.

The statistics below are accurate up to July 8, 2017

Rick Porcello

2016 Stats 33 GS 22-4 W-L 3.15 ERA 1.01 WHIP 7.63 K/9 223 IP
2017 Stats 18 GS 4-10 W-L 5.01 ERA 1.48 WHIP 8.25 K/9 111.1 IP
2016 Cy Young Candidate Struggles

(Masslive.com)

The reigning American League Cy Young award winner has regressed back to his normal self.

When looking at his pitches, Porcello has generally thrown his change-up at a 12 percent clip, although in 2017 he is only throwing it nine percent of the time, and for good reason.

According to his pitch values on fangraphs.com, where zero represents the average, Porcello’s 2016 change-up measured in at a 10.0, although so far in 2017, his change-up is valued at -2.2. His struggles with the change-up are possibly connected to his fastball woes as well, as in 2016 his fastball was valued at 13.0, although it is currently valued at -10.3.

His career BABIP sits at .312, although during his two most successful seasons in which he posted a 3.15 and 3.43 ERA, his BABIP sat comfortably below .300. Currently in 2017, his BABIP is an astronomical .346, which does scream for positive regression, although it explains part of his struggles.

His career home run to fly ball rate, or HR/FB, is a respectable 11.4 percent, although in his most successful seasons, he was able to keep it under 9.5.

Clearly, Porcello’s struggles have to do with the fact that he is extremely hittable. You can’t expect too much of a pitcher whose batting average against is almost .300.

Jon Lester

2016 Stats 32 GS 19-5 W-L 2.44 ERA 1.10 WHIP 8.75 K/9 202.2 IP
2017 Stats 18 GS 5-5 W-L 3.94 ERA 1.23 WHIP 9.22 K/9 107.1 IP

The 2016 National League Cy Young runner-up has been a serious disappointment this season.

He currently sports a left on base percentage, or LOB, of 71.6, which is much closer to his career average of 75.2 percent than his 2016 mark of 84.9 percent. Similarly, his current batting average against of .249 is also significantly closer to his career mark of .241, although his batting average against in 2016 was an incredible .209.

He is mixing his pitches in an almost identical fashion as he did in 2014, although his results have been quite the opposite. When looking at his pitch values and velocity, his fastball and curveball have both become negative in value while decreasing significantly in velocity.

It is fair to say that this 2017 Lester, opposed to the 2016 Cy Young-caliber Lester, is what we should expect moving forward.

Justin Verlander

2016 Stats 34 GS 16-9 W-L 3.04 ERA 1.00 WHIP 10.04 K/9 227.2 IP
2017 Stats 17 GS 5-5 W-L 4.96 ERA 1.52 WHIP 8.45 K/9 98 IP
2016 Cy Young Candidate Struggles

(Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

Verlander’s 2017 season has been a serious anomaly. He has posted an ERA above four only twice in his 12-year career, although he seems to be on track to do so again this season.

The 2016 American League Cy Young runner-up won 16 games while posting a 3.04 ERA and an incredible .204 batting average against. Most people would say he was snubbed in the Cy Young vote, as his ratios far outshined Porcello’s, who won the award majorly because of his 22 wins and only four losses.

So far in 2017, Verlander has severely struggled with pitch location, as his career walk rate is 2.76 per nine innings, although his current walk rate is at a career high 4.39. This has caused his WHIP to rise from 1.00 in 2016 to 1.52 this year.

The 34-year-old’s BABIP of .316 suggests that he is due for some positive regression and his velocity has increased from last season, although his struggles seem control induced, which is not a good sign moving ahead.

Johnny Cueto

2016 Stats 32 GS 18-5 W-L 2.79 ERA 1.09 WHIP 8.11 K/9 219.2 IP
2017 Stats 17 GS 6-7 W-L 4.26 ERA 1.33 WHIP 8.18 K/9 105.2 IP

Cueto’s 2016 campaign reminded us of his 2014 Cy Young runner-up season, where at 28 years old, he finished the season with 20 wins and a 2.25 ERA.

In 2016, Cueto was astounding, recording 18 wins and a 2.79 ERA. Now in 2017, Cueto is having his worst career year since his sophomore season with the Cincinnati Reds in 2009.

The 31-year-old is currently allowing 35.4 percent hard contact, which is about seven percent higher than his career mark, and 13 percent higher than in his 2014 season. He seems to be getting a bit unlucky as well, as his HR/FB is very high at 16.8 percent, which is well off his career average of 10.3 percent.

The most notable change to his pitch values are with his change-up, which has been his best complimentary pitch over his career and measures in at 21.7, although in 2017 alone his change-up is valued at -3.5.

An ineffective change-up, mile-high HR/FB rate and excessive amount of hard contact all seem to be the prime causes of Cueto’s 2017 struggles. A turnaround is definitely possible if he can reign in his change-up and begin to limit hard contact.

Masahiro Tanaka

2016 Stats 31 GS 14-4 W-L 3.07 ERA 1.08 WHIP 7.44 K/9 199.2 IP
2017 Stats 17 GS 7-7 W-L 5.25 ERA 1.36 WHIP 9.03 K/9 97.2 IP
2016 Cy Young Candidate Struggles

(Photo by the Japanese Times)

Tanaka’s 2017 season has been nothing like we’ve ever seen from the Japanese international.

His current walk rate is at 2.40 per nine innings, although he had a walk rate under 1.62 in each of his last three seasons. Also, his BABIP is over .300 for the first time in his major league career, which is a bad sign for a ground ball pitcher like himself.

The major problem for Tanaka seems to be his lack of ability to throw the fastball. His four-seam fastball and cutter both rank in the deep negatives for pitch values. His off-speed pitches remain his bread and butter, although they are much less effective without a successful fastball to work off of.

Without a moderately effective fastball, Tanaka will remain unsuccessful.

Kyle Hendricks

2016 Stats 30 GS 16-8 W-L 2.13 ERA 0.98 WHIP 8.05 K/9 190 IP
2017 Stats 11 GS 4-3 W-L 4.09 ERA 1.20 WHIP 7.44 K/9 61.2 IP

Hendricks is a very interesting pitcher, as he managed to be a Cy Young candidate in 2016 while having on average an 86 mile per hour fastball.

He finished the 2016 season with 16 wins and an incredible 2.13 ERA, although in 2017, his command has decreased significantly. He is walking a full player more per nine innings than in both of his previous years.

The 27-year-old is also allowing 36 percent hard contact, which is over 10 percent higher than he has let up in his last four seasons. He is currently dealing with right middle finger inflammation, although he is scheduled for a rehab start on July 10 at the Double-A level.

It seems as though an injury has led to a lack of command, which is allowing hitters to make much better contact than in years past. If he can get healthy, there is a chance he can get back on track.

 

Featured image by the Chicago Tribune 

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One hit wonder MLB seasons

One-hit wonder MLB seasons since 2000

In Major League Baseball, players often breakout seemingly out of nowhere. The question then follows: Will their production continue, or will they simply fade away back to obscurity?

Methodology

In music, the term “one-hit wonder” refers to an artist who creates a song that ranks on the Billboard’s national top 40 list, while failing to recreate another with the same level of success. In baseball, we can label a player as a “one-hit wonder” if they experience a breakout season and are unable to recreate anywhere near the same level of success. In this case, success can be measured in accolades and wins above replacement player, or WAR.

For hitters, we will look at statistics like offensive WAR and accolades like MVP candidacy, Silver Slugger awards and All-Star appearances. For pitchers, we will assess the same group of statistics and awards, while also looking at Cy Young candidacies.

The main criteria used to compile the following list includes a blatant discrepancy between a player’s total career WAR and their WAR over a specific breakout season. Yearly awards are also taken into consideration, as a player can be considered a one-hit wonder if they finish within the top-25 voting for most valuable player, or MVP, while failing to ever do so again.

The following players combined make up the all “one-hit wonder” MLB team of the 2000’s. Note that being on this list does not mean the player had a bad career, but means they had a season that was a blatant anomaly.

Honorable mentions include: Angel Berroa (2003), Morgan Ensberg (2005) and Dontrelle Willis (2005)

Paul Lo Duca, Catcher, Los Angeles Dodgers, 2001

2001 Stats 125 G 25 HR 90 RBI 71 R .320/.374/.548
162 Game Avg. 162 G 12 HR 72 RBI 72 R .286/.337/.409
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Paul Lo Duca may be a three time All-Star from 2003-2006, but his most productive season came in 2001. (Photo by Getty Images)

Lo Duca was a 25th round draft pick by the Dodgers in 1993. He grinded through the minors, playing a total of 718 games at three different minor league levels.

He expected to get a shot at the everyday catcher’s job in 1998 after the Dodgers traded away arguably the greatest hitting catcher of all time, Mike Piazza, to the Florida Marlins.

Although this was not the case, as the Dodgers received catcher Charles Johnson in return. This delayed Lo Duca’s first full MLB season until 2001.

In 2001, Lo Duca showed out, batting .320 while hitting a career-high 25 home runs with 90 RBIs in only 125 games. His offensive WAR measured 4.2, which was considerably higher than any other season, as his second-highest offensive WAR came the following season at 2.9.

Although Lo Duca made four consecutive All-Star appearances from 2003-2006, 2001 was the only season where he ranked within the top-25 in National League MVP voting at 19.

 

Darin Erstad, First Baseman, Anaheim Angels, 2000

2000 Stats 157 G 25 HR 100 RBI 121 R 28 SB .355/.409/.541
162 Game Avg. 162 G 12 HR 68 RBI 89 R 18 SB .282/.336/.407

Erstad may be one of the most obvious MLB players to have a one-hit wonder season. After being selected as the first overall pick in the 1995 draft by the California Angels, Erstad made a quick jump to the majors in 1996 after playing in only 143 games at four different minor league levels.

Erstad’s breakout came in 2000, as he managed to bat a miraculous .355 while hitting 25 home runs, scoring 121 runs and setting an MLB-record for most RBIs by a leadoff hitter with 100. It looks as if this record will be shattered by either the Houston Astros George Springer or the Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon this season, although it remains incredible feat either way.

In his 26-year-old season, Erstad ranked eighth in American League MVP voting while also being named an AL All-Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner. His offensive WAR during this season totaled 5.6, which accounted for over 30 percent of his total offensive WAR over his 14-year career.

Junior Spivey, Second Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 

2002 Stats 143 G 16 HR 78 RBI 103 R 11 SB .301/.389/.476
162 Game Avg. 162 G 17 HR 71 RBI 91 R 11 SB .270/.354/.436
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Junior Spivey’s career was short but was in MVP conversation in 2002. (Photo by Getty Images)

Spivey’s 2002 season matches up fairly evenly with his 162-game average, although he only managed to play in over 100 games in a season twice, as he only tallied 457 career games played in the major leagues.

 

In 2002, Spivey set career-highs across the board in home runs, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, stolen bases, walks and runs scored.

He managed to make his first and only All-Star team while also finishing the year 14th in National League MVP voting. His offensive WAR totaled 4.3, which is over 50 percent of his total career offensive WAR, which totals 7.3.

 

Chase Headley, Third Baseman, San Diego Padres, 2012

2012 Stats 161 G 31 HR 115 RBI 95 R 17 SB .286/.376/.498
162 Game Avg. 162 G 15 HR 69 RBI 72 R 4 SB .263/.343/.399

The current New York Yankee has been an above-average player for his entire career, as in each of his ten seasons, he has tallied an offensive WAR above one. It was Headley’s 2012 season that makes him one of MLB’s one-hit wonders of the 2000’s.

In his fourth season as a full-time starter, the former second-round pick flourished, batting .286 with 31 home runs, 115 RBI, 95 runs and 17 stolen bases. Headley managed to win a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, while also finishing fifth in the National League MVP vote. His offensive WAR of 6.5 in 2012 makes up for over 25 percent of his total career offensive WAR of 24.2.

Rich Aurilia, Shortstop, San Francisco Giants, 2001 

2001 Stats 156 G 37 HR 97 RBI 114 R .324/.369/.572
162 Game Avg. 162 G 18 HR 74 RBI 73 R .275/.328/.433
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Rich Aurilia’s 2001 season remains a massive anomaly compared to the rest of his career. (Photo by Getty Images)

Aurilia mustered up some productive years, but nothing like his 2001 campaign. In his lone All-Star season, Aurilia led the league in hits with 206, 37 of which went for home runs. In 2001, he batted .324 with 114 runs scores and 97 RBIs.

At 29 years old, Aurilia managed to earn a Silver Slugger while also being voted 12th in the National League MVP race. His offensive WAR in 2001 totaled 6.3, which is 33 percent of his 15-year career total offensive WAR of 18.9. His second most productive offensive season came the year before in 2000, where he totaled an offensive WAR of 2.2.

 

Lew Ford, Left Fielder, Minnesota Twins, 2004

2004 Stats 154 G 15 HR 72 RBI 89 R 20 SB .299/.381/.446
162 Game Avg. 162 G 11 HR 55 RBI 73 R 15 SB .268/.345/.399

Former 12th round pick by the Boston Red Sox, Ford was traded to the Twins in 2000 for a veteran reliever. Ford played 230 games in the minors for Minnesota, batting .297 with 24 home runs and 124 RBI before being called up in 2003.

It was Ford’s 2004 campaign that puts him on the map of one-hit wonder seasons. Ford batted .299 with 15 home runs, 72 RBIs, 89 runs and 20 stolen bases in 154 games.

In his first full major league season, the 27-year-old finished 24th in the American League MVP vote. His offensive WAR in 2004 was 3.3, which is about 64 percent of his career offensive production, as his total career offensive WAR is 4.9.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Center Fielder, Boston Red Sox, 2011

2011 Stats 158 G 32 HR 105 RBI 119 R 39 SB .321/.376/.552
162 Game Avg. 162 G 14 HR 68 RBI 98 R 46 SB .285/.341/.418
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 campaign resulted in a second place finish in the AL MVP race. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Before joining the “Evil Empire”, Ellsbury enjoyed plenty of success as a part of the Boston Red Sox, winning two championships in 2007 and 2013. However, many tend to forget how outlandish his lone All-Star season was in 2011.

At 27 years old, Ellsbury batted .321 with 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 119 runs scored and 39 stolen bases. He won a Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and finished second in the American League MVP vote behind the Detroit Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander.

There was one occasion in 2013 in which Ellsbury finished within the top-25 in MVP voting, although the numbers he was putting up were nowhere close to his 2011 campaign. His offensive WAR in 2011 registered at 7.4, which accounts for 28 percent of his total offensive production over his 11-year career, whereas his offensive WAR in 2013 measured in at only 4.1.

Carlos Quentin, Right Fielder, Chicago White Sox, 2008 

2008 Stats 130 G 36 HR 100 RBI 96 R 7 SB .288/.394/.571
162 Game Avg. 162 G 30 HR 95 RBI 81 R 2 SB .252/.347/.484

Quentin’s 162 game average is very respectable, although due to the fact that he only played in at least 130 games in a season twice, he finds himself as the starting right fielder of the one-hit wonder team of the 2000’s. The former first-round pick managed to hit 154 home runs and 491 RBIs over his nine-year career, although the majority of his offensive production came in 2008.

Quentin finished his 25-year-old season with a career-best .288 batting average, 30 home runs, 100 RBI and 96 runs scored. His offensive WAR of 5.3 accounts for exactly one third of his total career offensive production. If Quentin could stay healthy, he doesn’t end up on this list.

Mark Prior, Starting Pitcher, Chicago Cubs, 2003

2003 Stats 30 GS 18-6 W-L 2.43 ERA 1.10 WHIP 245 K 211.1 IP
162 Game Avg. 34 GS 13-9 W-L 3.51 ERA 1.23 WHIP 243 K 211 IP
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Mark Prior’s career was cut tragically short due to a slew of injuries. (Photo by ESPN.com)

Prior was drafted 43rd overall by the Yankees in 1998, but decided to forgo and attend the University of Southern California instead. Three years later, he was selected second overall by the Cubs in the 2001 draft.

He made his major league debut in May of 2002, and finished the season with a 6-6 record, 3.32 ERA and 147 Ks in 116.2 innings pitched. In 2003, Prior officially broke out, recording an 18-6 record with a 2.43 ERA and 245 strikeouts.

He was voted an All-Star for the first and only time, while finishing third in the National League Cy Young and ninth in the NL MVP vote.

Prior’s career was derailed by multiple injuries including a broken ankle, broken elbow, torn labrum and torn rotator cuff, which caused him to retire at just 25 years of age in 2006.

His career WAR over five seasons is 15.7, although a good bit of his production occurred in 2003, where his WAR totaled 7.4.

John Axford, Closer, Milwaukee Brewers, 2011 

2011 Stats 74 G 46 SV 1.95 ERA 1.14 WHIP 86 K 73 IP
162 Game Avg. 68 G 20 SV 3.68 ERA 1.41 WHIP 74 K 65 IP

After being drafted in the seventh round in 2001, Axford decided to forgo the draft and attend the University of Notre Dame. He was then selected in the 42nd round by the Cincinnati Reds in 2005, although he did not sign. After spending a season with the Yankees, Axford made a move to Milwaukee where he would be until 2013.

Axford spent three full seasons as the Brewers’ primary closer, although his 2011 campaign was unparalleled to any other. He recorded 46 saves, a 1.95 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 73 innings pitched. His WAR in 2011 totaled 2.3, which accounts for over 50 percent of his nine-year career WAR of 4.2.

 

Featured image by Ed Betz of MLB.com

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Biggest disappointments of the 2017 MLB season

Fantasy baseball is always full of disappointments. Below are five players who were expected to have big years, but have fallen well short of their expectations.

Rick Porcello, Starting Pitcher, Boston Red Sox

Biggest Disappointments 2017 MLB Season

Rick Porcello is having one of the worst campaigns after winning the AL Cy young just a year ago. (Masslive.com)

The 2016 American League Cy Young winner has been a serious disappointment in 2017. Just a year ago, Porcello had won a career-high 22 games while sporting a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

2017 has been quite the opposite for the 28-year-old, as he currently has a 4-10 record with a 5.06 ERA. His BABIP is about .100 points higher than it was in 2016, which has resulted in a batting average against of .312, which is about .080 points off of his 2016 marks.

Porcello’s struggles have been severe and imminent, as he is giving up 12 percent more hard contact than he did a year ago. Batters have adjusted, while Porcello has not, and if this were to continue, Porcello would be in line to have one of the worst seasons by a reigning Cy Young Winner since Bartolo Colon’s 2006 campaign.

Jonathan Villar, Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base, Milwaukee Brewers

Villar finished as a top-five fantasy player in standard ESPN formats in 2016. His 19 home runs and 62 steals along with a very respectable .285 average made him a top-40 selection in 2017.

So far this season, Villar is batting a mere .216 with eight home runs and 15 stolen bases. His strikeout rate has risen five percent while his walk rate has decreased by four percent, showing that the 26-year-old is trending in the wrong direction. He has fallen from playing an everyday role at the top of the lineup, to being a platoon mate with Eric Sogard and Orlando Arcia while batting at the bottom-half of the order.

Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher, Detroit Tigers

Biggest Disappointments 2017 MLB Season

Justin Verlander may be a future Hall of Famer, but his 2017 campaign is far from Hall of Fame caliber. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

The future Hall of Famer has taken a huge step back in 2017. His 2016 campaign ended with a runner-up finish in the American League Cy Young race, as he logged a 16-9 record with a 3.04 ERA and 10.04 K/9.

In 2017, Verlander’s performance has been quite abysmal. His ERA sits at 4.47 and WHIP sits at 1.45, which is due to his drastically increased walk rate that is currently at 4.18 per nine innings. He is allowing about 10 percent more hard contact than last season, which has caused his BAA to rise from .207 in 2016 to .253 this season. The 34-year-old can still be fantasy relevant, although up to this point, he has been a clear disappointment.

Starling Marte, Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates

Marte finished the 2016 season as the 25th overall fantasy player in standard ESPN scoring formats. The expectations were high for the 28-year-old, as he had just hit nine home runs and stole 47 bases while batting .311 in only 129 games. With hopes of drafting a player who can bat over .300, hit 15 home runs and steal over 50 bases, Marte was being selected within the top-30 picks in all leagues.

He was suspended 80 games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance in April. Even in the 13 games in which he played this season, Marte’s strikeout rate has risen by 10 percent while his batting average has dropped .070 points from the season before. I understand this sample size is too small to matter, to it’s worth mentioning.

Marte’s suspension will end on July 18, so look for the star outfielder to return to the Pirates outfield sometime in late July.

Mark Melancon, Relief Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

Biggest Disappointments 2017 MLB Season

Mark Melancon was brought over to San Francisco to solidify their bullpen, although he has been quite the disappointment in 2017. (Keith Srakocic, Associated Press)

Melancon was an All-Star and finished the season with a 1.64 ERA and 47 saves while playing for both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals in 2016. This offseason, Melancon signed a four-year deal with the Giants, who may be regretting their decision.

The 32-year-old currently has a 4.35 ERA and a BABIP of .355, which is a about .100 points higher than his previous season. Bad luck may be a big part of Melancon’s struggles, as his strikeout and walk rates have improved from 2016.

He is currently experiencing a right pronator strain, which he has received a PRP injection for. Since there is no structural damage, Melancon should return sooner rather than later, although the Giants have picked up struggling reliever Sam Dyson to fill the void for the time being.

 

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Biggest surprises of the 2017 MLB Season

Biggest Surprises of the 2017 MLB Season

This Major League Baseball season has brought many big surprises. One being that MLB hitters are on pace to hit about 500 more home runs this season than ever before. With this in mind, it’s time to look at five players who have been the biggest surprises of the 2017 MLB season.

Ryan Zimmerman, First Baseman, Washington Nationals

Biggest surprises 2017 MLB Season

Ryan Zimmerman is finally healthy and on pace for over 40 home runs in 2017. (Photo by Nick Wass/Associated Press)

At 32 years old, Zimmerman is having a career year. He is currently ranked within the top 10 in National League home runs, RBI and batting average.

Unfortunately, he has been riddled with injuries in the last three seasons, as he hasn’t played in 140 games since he was 28 years old in 2013. In 115 games in 2016, Zimmerman batted only .218 with 15 home runs.

Now finally 100 percent healthy, Zimmerman is batting .337 and is on pace to set a career-high with 40-plus home runs. He has been an integral piece to the Nationals league-best offense.

Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins

Santana was suspended for 80 games in 2015 after testing positive for PEDs. Post-suspension, he managed to have a solid 2016 campaign, as he mustered up a 7-11 record with a 3.38 ERA in 181 innings.

Due to Minnesota’s newfound success in 2017, Santana has a 10-5 record and sports an impressive 3.07 ERA. The analytics would suggest he is getting fairly lucky, as his FIP is 4.71 and xFIP is 4.86, although as they say, “it’s better to be lucky than good”, and in this case, Santana has been both.

Aaron Judge, Outfielder, New York Yankees

Biggest surprises 2017 MLB Season

Judge has become the best power hitter in baseball in 2017. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

Judge’s first major league stint came in August of 2016. He struggled mightily in his first 27 games, batting a mere .179 and striking out 44 percent of the time. Many questions arose to whether Judge’s raw power would translate to the major league level.

He has since proved all doubters wrong, as he is batting .326 with a league-leading 27 home runs and 62 RBIs. He has set the Statcast record for hardest hit home run at 121.1 mph, while also having the farthest home run recorded in 2017 at 495 feet and highest average exit velocity at 96.9 mph. The 25-year-old has officially emerged as an elite ballplayer and will continue to impress for years to come.

Jason Vargas, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals

Vargas tore his UCL in 2015 which caused him to miss almost the entire 2016 season. After over a full calendar year of recovery, Vargas is back and playing better than ever.

He currently has a league-best 12 wins with a 2.22 ERA. The 34-year-old is in line to make his first All-Star team in his 12-year career.

Cody Bellinger, First Basemen/Outfield, Los Angeles Dodgers

Biggest surprises 2017 MLB Season

Cody Bellinger has been the most pleasant surprise of 2017. (Photo by Dodgers Photo Blog)

Bellinger had been tearing the cover off of the ball in the minors, hitting a combined 56 home runs and 174 RBIs in 245 games at three different levels. He was called up in late April after the Dodgers placed outfielders Joc Pederson and Franklin Gutierrez on the disabled list.

With a slew of outfielders including Yasiel Puig, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke, Kike Hernandez, Brett Eibner and Trayce Thompson along with the aforementioned Pederson and Gutierrez, Bellinger wasn’t expected to stick with the club, but rather be a short-term replacement.

The 21-year-old had different plans, as he took his opportunity and ran with it. Bellinger is currently batting .267 with an NL-high 24 home runs and 56 RBIs. The young phenomenon has been arguably the biggest surprise of 2017, as he has made a severe impact on a first-place Dodgers team that didn’t expect to see him until September call-ups.

 

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Fantasy Baseball Sell High Targets

Fantasy baseball 2017: Sell high targets

In fantasy baseball, it’s important to take advantage of selling high on players, rather than riding out their hot streaks until their value begins to fall. In the past, we have seen players like Joc Pederson be nearly untradeable after hitting 20 bombs in the first half of his rookie season, although his value dropped immensely after his batting average and home run totals plummeted in the second half.

On Saturday, I listed some players that you should buy low on in trade talks. Today, we’ll talk about who to ship away.

The following players may be having incredible seasons, but their values are clearly at their peak, making them perfect sell high targets.

Aaron Judge, Outfielder, New York Yankees

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Sell High Targets

It is time to sell high on Judge’s immense value. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

Judge has become one of the premier power hitters in the MLB, although now is the time to cash in. He is currently batting .328 with 26 home runs and 64 RBIs. If you were to move him now, you could likely get yourself an ace caliber pitcher in return, possibly a Chris Sale, Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw.

The 25-year-old’s BABIP of .420, or batting average on balls in play, is extremely unsustainable and has dropped about .13 points in the last seven days. Also, his HR/FB rate is at an astronomical 42 percent, which is also clearly unsustainable.

His batting average will drop and his home run pace will slow down. If you want to take advantage of Judge’s exorbitant trade value, now is the time.

Editor’s note: You can find more information on why Aaron Judge is a player to sell in this in-depth article.

Gio Gonzalez, Starting Pitcher, Washington Nationals

Gonzalez is having arguably his best season since 2012 when he finished third in the National League Cy Young voting. He is currently sporting a 2.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and an 8.30 K/9.

Even with the recently found success, this is the prime time to sell high on the 31-year-old. His left on base percentage is an unsustainable 85 percent, whereas his career rate is 73 percent. Gonzalez’s BABIP also seems unsustainable, as his career mark sits at .296 and his current mark is .268. Finally, his FIP of 4.28 is considered below average and his xFIP of 4.38 is considered poor.

Gonzalez seems to be getting very lucky in a multitude of ways. I would sell high before he is once again considered simply a streamer.

Marcel Ozuna, Outfielder, Miami Marlins

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Sell High Targets

Marcell Ozuna is notoriously a poor second half player. (Courtesy of Getty Images)

Ozuna has begun to emerged as one of the league’s best power hitters. So far in 2017, he is batting .320 with 20 home runs and 53 RBIs.

His career BABIP is .323, although his current BABIP sits at .355, suggesting that his batting average is bound to regress. Also, his current isolated power, or ISO, is .260 and his HR/FB rate is 29 percent, which both seem unsustainable as his career ISO is .175 and career HR/FB rate is 14 percent.

All of the analytics point towards regression, but if you also look at Ozuna’s track record of being a very poor second half player, it will make it easy to move on from the 26-year-old slugger.

On the career, his first half stats are .285 with 59 home runs, whereas his second half batting average is .243 with only 20 home runs. Now would be the time to move Ozuna before he likely burns out.

Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins

Santana is blatantly a sell high candidate. He is currently 9-4 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 6.66 K/9.

His FIP of 4.81 and xFIP of 4.93 are considered poor and awful by fangraphs.com, showing that the fielders behind him have kept his ratios afloat. The 34-year-old’s BABIP of .190 is the lowest among qualified starters and is absolutely unsustainable. Also, his left on base percentage is 85 percent, which is about 12 percent higher than his career rate.

There is no doubt in my mind that Santana’s performance is bound to regress, so now would be the optimal time to sell.

 

Featured Image by MLB.com

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Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Targets

Fantasy baseball 2017: Buy low targets

In fantasy baseball, the best time to trade for a player is when their value is at its lowest point. The buy low theory is clearly the best way to acquire top-tier talent for fairly cheap prices. Below are four players that could be considered buy low targets, as they offer immense upside despite their current levels of performance.

Manny Machado, Third Base/Shortstop, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Buy Low Targets

Manny Machado is on pace for 35 home runs, but his low batting average makes him a perfect buy low target. (Credit: Rob Carr/Getty Images).

Machado’s 2017 campaign has not gone as planned. After batting over .285 with at least 35 home runs in his two previous seasons, he was considered one of the top 10 fantasy hitters in the game. So far in 2017, he is batting only .224 with a raised strikeout rate by over four percent.

His career BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is .303, although his current BABIP sits at a mere .234. BABIP tends to represent whether a hitter is getting lucky or unlucky. According to fangraphs.com, a BABIP “in the .230 range is very atypical for a major league hitter”, so for Machado, it is clear he is getting extremely unlucky.

His home run totals have sustained as he has an ISO, or isolated power, of .224 and is on pace for 35 home runs. If you have an opportunity to pick up Machado, as his value seems to be at its deepest point, now is the time.

Francisco Lindor, Shortstop, Cleveland Indians

Lindor had gotten off to a slow start in 2017. His current BABIP of .251 is quite far off from his career BABIP of .315. This is negatively affecting his batting average as he is currently batting .255, whereas he is a career .295 hitter.

The 23-year-old’s strikeout rate has continued to drop in every consecutive season which shows how he is progressing as a hitter. Also, his ISO is an amazing .227 and his HR/FB rate is a fairly sustainable 13.3 percent, showing that his power seems sustainable.

Lindor will surely set a career high in home runs this season as he is currently on pace for 32. If you can get your hands on Lindor while his value is still low, it will be an incredible steal as his performance is sure to improve.

Rougned Odor, Second Base, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Buy Low Targets

Rougned Odor had an extremely slow start in 2017. (Photo by MLB Trade Rumors)

Odor’s struggles were very real in 2017, as he had been batting under the Mendoza line for about three months. So far in June, he is batting .228, although his BABIP remains under .240, suggesting he is in line for major progression as his career BABIP sits around .281.

In 2016, Odor exploded onto the scene, hitting 33 home runs and stealing 14 bases while batting .271. Odor’s current .212 batting average is due to be on the rise because of his extremely low BABIP.

If you can pick up Odor now before his performance improves, you will have found yourself a top-tier fantasy asset, as he has the potential to be a great producer of home runs, RBIs, runs and steals.

Kyle Schwarber, Outfield, Chicago Cubs

Schwarber was recently sent down to Triple-A Iowa to clear his head and improve his approach. According to reports, the minor league stint shouldn’t be long, although it is well deserved. The 24-year-old is slashing a poor .171/.295/.378 with 12 home runs and 28 RBI.

His production has been solid even while batting well under the Mendoza line. His .193 BABIP suggests that he is getting absurdly unlucky, as he currently has the lowest BABIP in the MLB out of qualified batters.

His value has declined due to his current struggles and demotion, so now is the time to make a move for the former fourth overall pick.

 

Featured image by David Klutho

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Jonathan Isaac Boston Celtics

Why the Boston Celtics will draft Jonathan Isaac

With the NBA Draft rapidly approaching, and the Boston Celtics moving back from the first overall selection to the third, many questions have risen about whether General Manager Danny Ainge will use the draft pick or trade it in a package for a superstar.

As you can see by the title, I believe they will keep the pick and draft Florida State freshman forward Jonathan Isaac, and here is why.

Team needs

Jonathan Isaac Boston Celtics

Boston has a logjam at the guard position. (Photo by Getty Images)

Boston has a logjam at the guard position. All-NBA guard Isaiah Thomas had a career year, averaging about 29 points and six assists on 46 percent from the field. He earned the nickname “The King of the Fourth Quarter” after a 15-game span in January in which he averaged 13.6 points in the fourth quarter alone. Even with his defensive issues, he is clearly the Celtics’ franchise player.

Shooting guard Avery Bradley is a two-time All-Defensive player. He has improved his field goal percentage from last season by about two percent while also increasing his total rebounds by over 100. One can make an argument that he is the Celtics’ “best” overall player because of his prowess on both sides of the floor.

On the bench, Boston has Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier.

Smart is a physical defensive guard who can rebound and play make. His jump shooting is still poor, but it has been constantly improving. In this season’s playoffs, Smart shot about 40 percent from three, which is a huge jump from his 28 percent mark during the regular season.

Terry Rozier, similar to Smart, is not a great jump shooter, but excels at rebounding and playmaking. His per 36-minute stat line is about 12 points, seven rebounds and four assists per game. Rozier and Smart are great depth guards who add a needed level of toughness and defense.

With all of these guards on the roster for the foreseeable future, there was clearly no need for the Celtics to draft Washington’s freshman guard Markelle Fultz, who is widely recognized as this year’s top talent in the draft.

The glaring weakness for the Celtics is their rebounding and defense, as they ranked 27th in total rebounds, 23rd in total blocks and 18th in total steals. Ideally, the Celtics will add a versatile scoring wing who can improve their defense and rebounding.

The perfect fit

In today’s position-less NBA, a 7-foot wing player that can shoot, attack the rim and guard multiple positions is invaluable.

Isaac’s length and athleticism will allow him to guard the one through four positions with ease. Stronger forwards may be able to bully him in the paint, although because many NBA teams are transitioning to playing small ball, his versatility will undoubtedly translate.

Ainge also loves the combination of size and ability that players like Kevin Durant possess, and Isaac fits that exact mold. Granted, Isaac’s college numbers (12 PTS, 7.8 TRB, 1.2 AST, 1.2 STL and 1.5 BLK) are far inferior to Durant’s (25.8 PTS, 11.1 TRB, 1.3 AST, 1.9 STL and 1.9 BLK), although they both have similar 6-foot-11 210-pound frames, while shooting over 35 percent from three and 50 percent from the field.

Danny Ainge has his guy

Jonathan Isaac Boston Celtics

Jonathan Isaac is the perfect fit for Boston. (Photo by FSView)

Isaac was the very first prospect brought in by the Celtics this offseason and according to an SBNation report, Isaac “won’t work out for teams picking after No. 4”. This is interesting considering Isaac is projected to be picked outside of the top five by the majority of draft experts.

One theory by Boston Sports fan Mike Lichtenstein, who appeared Monday on The Felger & Massarotti sports radio show, is that Ainge promised Isaac that the Celtics are going to move back in the draft and take him with the third selection. This would explain why Isaac has only worked out for two teams, twice with the Phoenix Suns who have the fourth pick and once with the Celtics.

Boston then brought in Fultz for a workout, although clearly they have no interest in him after trading the first overall pick to Philadelphia.

The player that most people believe the Celtics will select is Josh Jackson, although he has refused to work out for the Celtics. In my opinion, this rules him out as an option for Boston.

Making this trade with Philadelphia would be foolish if Boston expects to take Jackson anyway, as multiple reports have the Lakers showing interest to take him with the second overall pick.

Last season, Ainge spent the third overall pick on Jaylen Brown, even though he was projected to be a late top ten selection, showing that he has no problem getting his guy. I believe this year it will be a similar case.

Isaac to Boston seems inevitable.

There is a lot of speculation that the Celtics will draft Duke freshman Jayson Tatum, although his lack of defensive prowess and offensive efficiency make Isaac seem like a much better fit.

 

Featured Image by CelticsBlog.com

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Wizards

Washington Wizards 2017 NBA Draft Profile

Day 26 of our 2017 NBA Draftmas special focuses on the needs and targets of the Washington Wizards 2017 draft.

Summary

Washington Wizards 2017 draft

John Wall and Bradley Beal have transformed the Wizards into a perennial Eastern Conference playoff threat. (Photo by The Washington Post)

Under newly hired head coach Scott Brooks, the Wizards went 49-33, ranking fifth in points per game and 21st in points allowed. Their season was cut short after pushing the first seed Boston Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The team’s offense was focused around focal point John Wall, who had a career year. The 2016-17 season was Wall’s first with over 20 points, 10 assists and two steals per game. His impact of the offensive and defensive end has transformed the Wizards into a perennial playoff team in the Eastern Conference.

With Wall being Washington’s Batman, we can consider Bradley Beal to be his Robin. Beal also had a career year, as he averaged 23 points and 3.5 assists on 48 percent field goal shooting.

Beyond the statistics, the greatest improvement for Beal was his durability, as he managed to start in all 77 games in which he played in. This is a huge uptick from the 35 games in which he started in the year before.

Other impact players include stretch four Markieff Morris, center Marcin Gortat and wing Otto Porter, who all averaged double figures. Off the bench came newly acquired Bojan Bogdanovic, who also averaged double figures in only 23 minutes per game.

Other role players include young wing Kelly Oubre, guards Brandon Jennings, Trey Burke and Tomas Satoransky, as well as big men Ian Mahinmi and Jason Smith.

The Wizards roster is fairly full, although with restricted free agents Porter, Bogdanovic and Burke, as well as unrestricted free agent Jennings, Washington could have some holes to fill. Most likely the Wizards will retain any restricted FAs, especially Porter and Bogdanovic, although if a team were to offer Burke an unmatchable contract, he could be moving on to another team.

Washington Wizards 2017 Draft Picks & Needs

After trading their lone first round pick to the Brooklyn Nets for Bojan Bogdanovic and Chris McCullough, the Wizards will be left with only one pick in the upcoming draft.

First Round: N/A

Second Round: No. 52

Since their lone draft pick is at the back end of the second round, Washington will need to find a diamond in the rough. Their glaring need is defense, although with the possible losses of back up guards Brandon Jennings and Trey Burke to free agency, it seems as though drafting a guard could be the best possible solution.

Targets & Thoughts

Washington Wizards 2017 draft

Frank Mason is being overlooked due to his age (23) and lack of size (5-foot-11). (Photo by the Arizona Daily Star)

Option 1

Pick #52: Frank Mason, Guard, Kansas

Wooden Award winner Frank Mason has been projected as a late-second round pick due to his lack of size and potential, as he only stands at 5-foot-11 and is already 23-years-old.

His size failed to hold him back from becoming one of the elite point guards at the college level, and his talent and skill set give him the potential to become a great floor general at the next level.

The two-time Naismith Award winner averaged about 21 points, five assists and four rebounds in his senior season. He also led Kansas to two straight Elite Eight appearances in the NCAA tournament. His leadership and offensive ability will make him an asset to any team.

Washington Wizards 2017 draft

Edmond Sumner is declaring for the 2017 draft even after missing the last two months of the season with a torn ACL. (Photo by WKRC.com)

Option 2

Pick #52: Edmond Sumner, Guard, Xavier

Sumner, a 6-foot-6 combo guard out of Xavier, was forced to redshirt in his freshman season after being involved in a head-on collision that left him motionless on the floor for about 10 minutes. After playing a full season in 2015-16, Sumner suffered a torn ACL that cut his sophomore campaign short.

His vast injury history has dropped his draft stock significantly, although his size and skillset project him to be an all-around guard who can contribute with or without the ball.

He averaged 14 points, five assists and four rebounds on 48 percent shooting this season. Defensively, he could be a great asset to the Wizards who would be able to use him as a versatile defender who can guard the one-three positions. His offensive and defensive skillsets would make him a perfect fit as a depth guard for Washington.

Conclusion

The Wizards don’t have many needs, as they were only one game away from squaring up with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals. If they can add a cheap piece in the draft opposed to over-paying a depth asset in free agency, they would be able to save some cap for the future.

Frank Mason could become the depth floor general Washington may need if Jennings is not resigned. Edmond Sumner could be a better replacement for their current combo guard Trey Burke who struggles defensively. All in all, the Wizards are in a good spot, and will likely be in the Eastern Conference semifinals for a fourth time in the last five years.

 

Thanks for checking out the Washington Wizards 2017 NBA Draft profile and tune in tomorrow for day 27 of our NBA Draftmas special to see what the Memphis Grizzlies may do this offseason.

NBA Draftmas Day 24: New Orleans Pelicans

NBA Draftmas Day 25: Houston Rockets

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Rockets

Houston Rockets 2017 NBA Draft Profile

Day 25 of our 2017 NBA Draftmas special focuses on the needs and targets of the Houston Rockets 2017 draft.

Houston Rockets 2017 Draft Summary

Houston Rockets 2017 Draft

Mike D’Antoni has taken this team to new heights along with top players James Harden and Trevor Ariza. (Photo by the Houston Chronicle)

Under newly hired head coach Mike D’Antoni, the Houston Rockets had an incredibly successful year. The team finished 55-27, although their season was cut short after losing in six games to a talented and well-coached San Antonio Spurs team in the Western Conference semifinals.

D’Antoni moved superstar James Harden to the point position on offense, which further enhanced their offensive success. Harden averaged 29 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds per game on 44 percent field goal percentage. His ability to score and facilitate has continuously kept the Rockets in title contention.

Other impact starters included Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverly and Clint Capela, who were clearly the team’s best defensive players. Ariza and Beverly both averaged over one steal per game, while Capela averaged over one block.

The Rockets’ bench depth included two Sixth Man of the Year candidates, Eric Gordon and Lou Williams, who averaged about 16 and 15 points per game respectively. Young guys like Montrezl Harrell and Sam Dekker showed that they can also be impact players as well.

The Rockets’ offense ranked first in three pointers attempted per game and second in points per game, showing that their offense needs no adjustments. On the other hand, their defense could use some tweaking, as they ranked 26th in points per game, 20th in blocks and 15th in defensive rebounding.

Houston Rockets 2017 Draft Picks & Needs

The Rockets traded their first round pick along with Corey Brewer to the Los Angeles Lakers in February in return for Lou Williams. This leaves Houston with only two selections in the upcoming draft, with both being in the middle of the second round.

First Round: N/A

Second Round: No. 43 (Via DEN), No. 45 (Via POR)

With defense being their glaring need, the Rockets will likely add a forward that can be a versatile defender as well as an above average rebounder.

Targets & Thoughts

Houston Rockets 2017 Draft

Jaron Blossomegame’s defense and athleticism would make him a perfect fit for the Rockets. (Photo by Draftexpress.com)

Pick #43: Jaron Blossomgame, Forward, Clemson

In his senior season, Blossomgame averaged 18 points, six rebounds and one block on 50 percent field goal percentage. He is a strong and athletic forward, who can use his 6-foot-8, 225-pound frame to guard the two through four positions with ease. His explosiveness will allow him to be an exceptional rebounder and finisher near the basket.

He shot over 44 percent from three on more than three 3-pointers attempted per game in his junior season. His defensive and rebounding skills paired with his ability to hit the three makes him a great fit for Houston.

Houston Rockets 2017 Draft

2015-16 ACC Sixth Man of the Year, Isaiah Hicks, would be a steal in the second round for Houston. (Photo by TheScore.com)

Pick #45: Isaiah Hicks, Forward, UNC

Another senior, Hicks helped the North Carolina Tar Heels win a National Championship during the 2016-17 season. His per 40 minute averages were 20 points, 9 rebounds, one steal and one block per game.

In his junior season, he was awarded the ACC Sixth Man of the Year award after averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds per game on about 62 percent field goal shooting.

Hicks’ 6-foot-9, 245-pound frame allows him to be a menacing physical presence down low. Hicks would be a great fit in Houston as he would add a needed rebounding and defensive presence on the low block who also having enough athleticism to defend the perimeter.

Conclusion

With defense and rebounding as their blatant needs, the Rockets would be smart to add an older player out of the draft who can impact the game on the defensive end while also being able to attack the glass.

Jaron Blossomegame is a defensive stud whose athleticism will allow him to be a menace on the boards for a small forward. Isaiah Hicks would also fit the bill, as his defensive ability paired with his aggressiveness on the glass would make him a perfect piece for the Rockets moving forward.

 

Thanks for checking out the Houston Rockets 2017 NBA Draft profile and tune in tomorrow for day 26 of our NBA Draftmas special to see what the Washington Wizards may do.

NBA Draftmas Day 23: San Antonio Spurs

NBA Draftmas Day 24: New Orleans Pelicans

 

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Judge

Is it time to sell high on Aaron Judge?

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has officially broken out. The 6-foot-7, 285-pounder is arguably the best power hitter in baseball.

He is continuously setting MLB Statcast records, most recently hitting a home run that recorded an exit velocity of 121.1 MPH, which broke his former record for hardest hit home run that measured 119.8 MPH. Judge holds nine of the top 15 hardest hit balls recorded in 2017.

Sell high Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge suffered severe struggles in 2016. (Photo by The New York Post)

His first MLB action came in August of 2016, where the slugger struggled mightily. In 27 games, he batted just .179 with only four home runs. The most alarming observation from his first stint in the majors was his atrocious 44.2 percent strikeout rate.

Clearly, after an offseason of adjustments, Judge has significantly improved his approach at the plate. His strikeout rate has dropped to a serviceable 29 percent, which is still considered “awful” according to fangraphs.com, although it is still lower than many current premier power hitters, including Khris Davis (31.5 percent), Cody Bellinger (32 percent), Miguel Sano (36 percent) and Chris Davis (38 percent).

Judge currently leads the entire MLB in home runs with 22, while ranking second in the American League in both batting average at .335 and RBIs with 49. He is dangerously close to being in position to win the AL Triple Crown, which is an accomplishment that has only been done 17 times, most recently by future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera in 2012 (.330/44/139).

Currently on pace for about 58 home runs and 130 RBI, it is time to question whether Judge’s success is sustainable.

His current BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, of .433 suggests that he is getting incredibly lucky. BABIP measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball in play is considered any outcome other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, sacrifice bunt or home run.

According to fangraphs.com, a BABIP of .350 over a sample size of 4,000 plate appearances would be considered a mark that only the best hitters in the league will reach. An example of a player who falls into this category is Joey Votto, who over the course 5,719 plate appearances has a career BABIP of .354.

The highest BABIP registered in a complete season since 1945 was by Hall of Famer Rod Carew in 1977, in which he finished the year with a .408 BABIP and .388 batting average. In the 2000’s, only one player managed to finish a season with a BABIP over .400, which was Manny Ramirez in 2000 (.403).

This shows that Judge’s BABIP is sure to plummet from its current .425 mark, as not even the greatest hitters of all time would be able to sustain a BABIP this high.

Sell high Aaron Judge

Judge has become the best power hitter in baseball in 2017. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

Judge’s home run to fly ball rate is at 41.5 percent. To put that in perspective, when Judge has been hitting a fly ball, there has been over a 40 percent chance of it leaving the yard.

According to fangraphs.com, “good home run hitters typically have HR/FB ratios anywhere from 15-20 percent”.

Unfortunately, this analytic was not created until 2002, so we cannot compare Judge’s current HR/FB rate to Barry Bonds’ 2001 marks, although we can look at other more contemporary players instead.

Chris Davis hit 53 home runs in 2013 with a 29.6 percent HR/FB rate, Chris Carter hit 41 home runs in 2016 with a 23.8 percent HR/FB rate and Miguel Cabrera hit 44 home runs in consecutive seasons in 2012 and 2013 with 23 and 25 percent HR/FB rates respectively. It is clear that Judge’s HR/FB rate will drop significantly, but by how much we cannot be sure.

I think we can all agree Judge is the real deal, although for fantasy purposes, this seems like the optimal time to sell high on the superstar. His value could not be any higher and is sure to drop as his BABIP and HR/FB inevitably will fall.

Trading Judge now could result in the addition of a bonifide ace, like Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, or Max Scherzer, opposed to in a month were his value may only be able to garner a Chris Archer, Yu Darvish, or Carlos Martinez.

To all my fellow fantasy baseball owners, good luck to your teams moving forward.

 

Featured Image by Sports Illustrated

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