NFL Week 11

Stack your money Sundays: Week 11

Week 10 Review (3-0) OVERALL: 19-9-2

Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Washington Redskins

Minnesota Vikings 38 Washington Redskins 30

In an emotional return to the sidelines for Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum could not be stopped. Did Bridgewater’s return spark Keenum to play big, knowing that his job is on the line? Maybe, but whatever it was, keep it up Case!

The former Houston standout threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. He was extremely efficient, completing 21 of his 29 passes and was also never sacked in the contest. Adam Thielen had a monster day, hauling in eight receptions for 166 yards and a score.

Minnesota was also able to rush for over 100 yards, while limiting the Redskins to just 81 rushing yards on 27 carries. In the article leading up to this game, we talked about how the Vikings were ranked sixth in third-down conversions, while the Redskins ranked 19th in opposing third-down conversions. As expected, Minnesota went 8-12 on third-down conversions.

The Redskins put up a fight, as Kirk Cousins threw for 327 yards while Vernon Davis and Jamison Crowder each had 76 receiving yards. Unfortunately, their poor defense and lack of run game left them just short. They now sit at 4-5 while the Vikings are looking great at 7-2.

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 New York Jets 10

This was one of the ugliest games of the season. It was a double revenge game, as both quarterbacks, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown, faced off against their former teams. It literally took until 6:05 left in the fourth quarter for a touchdown to occur. Imagine paying to sit through this disaster.

Both teams were unable to rush for over 100 yards, and the Bucs won while throwing for only 187 yards and scoring one touchdown. Since 2007, teams that threw for under 190 yards, rushed for less than 100 and scored only one touchdown have a .129 winning percentage. Shout out to the Bucs for beating the odds.

New England Patriots (-7.5) @ Denver Broncos

New England Patriots 41 Denver Broncos 16

NFL Week 11

The GOAT (Photo from Boston Herald)

The Broncos have fallen so hard, and it’s honestly sad. After stopping Brady and the Patriots on the opening drive, Denver muffed the punt and gave the ball right back. From that point on, the game was over. Tom Brady continues to defy odds as he had a miraculous three-touchdown, 125.4 quarterback rating performance.

Brock Osweiler continued to do Brock Osweiler things. He was inefficient with his throws and unable to make any big plays.

To Osweiler’s defense, Denver’s D did not help him at all. They have now allowed the fourth most points in the NFL, and are second to last in defensive turnovers. So yeah, Brock isn’t great, but Denver’s defense is playing at an all-time low. They should be able to rebound this week against the Bengals.

 

WEEK 11 PICKS

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers (-4)

PICK: CHARGERS TO COVER

So a rookie quarterback is going on the road against a Philip Rivers team, and Rivers only has to win by four? Sign me up. Luckily, Rivers was a full participant in practice and looks ready to go.

To much surprise, Tyrod Taylor was benched in favor of Nathan Peterman, the former Pitt quarterback. As crazy as this move seems, it kind of makes sense. Under Taylor, the Bills were 30th in passing yards, 27th in first downs, 28th in total yards and 24th in passing touchdowns. Peterman, who played well in garbage time against the Saints, will most likely be handing the ball off over 30 times to a running back.

San Diego’s defense, although shaky against the run, has done a pretty solid job as far as keeping teams off the scoreboard. The Chargers rank ninth in opponent points per game and third in opponent points per play. As far as the red zone goes, they are the No. 1 defense in terms of percentage of red zone trips that end in touchdowns.

Rivers has won 60 percent of his home games in November, which is absolutely respectable. He is clearly the better quarterback, and his defense, which does a great job of not allowing points, is going up against one of the weakest offenses in the league. In their last 18 road games during the months of November-January, the Bills are 4-14. Not a good road team this late into the season.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

PICK: EAGLES TO COVER

No Sean Lee means major problems for Dallas. The Cowboys fear that their star linebacker could miss several games due to his hamstring injury. Without Lee in the lineup, Dallas is a completely different defense. In Lee’s first six starts of the season, the Cowboys held opposing teams to just 80.3 rushing yards per game. In the two games he missed in October, the Cowboys allowed 164 rushing yards per game.

NFL Week 11

The favorite for MVP, Carson Wentz (Photo from The Undefeated)

When Lee was in against Atlanta, the Falcons had four carries for negative two yards. Even without Devonta Freeman for a majority of the game, Atlanta ended up with 132 yards on 34 carries.

The Eagles are arguably the best team in the NFL, and are also coming off a bye. Carson Wentz looks like the MVP of the league, as his Eagles are fourth in yards per game, second in points per play, third in third-down conversion percentage and first in red zone scoring efficiency on touchdown drives.

Not only is their offense second in the league in points per game, but Philly’s defense is tenth in the league in regards to fewest points allowed. They also do an exceptional job of defending on third down, ranking third in opposing third down percentage. When it comes to defending the run, the Eagles are first in opposing rushing yards per game, as well as opposing rushing first downs per game.

No Ezekiel Elliott and no Sean Lee might be too much for Dallas to overcome, especially against the hottest team in the league, who is fresh off a bye.

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)

PICK: SEAHAWKS TO COVER

Not only have you been stacking your money on Sundays, but now you should invest and stack some more on Monday.

Seattle, coming off a Thursday night win, has had an extended amount of time to prepare for this one. The Richard Sherman injury will sting, but it won’t kill this potent defense.

Matt Ryan has been shaky all year, and will most likely continue this trend on his way to Seattle. The Seahawks are allowing the fifth fewest points per game and the fourth fewest points per play. This team defends the red zone well and ranks sixth in opposing touchdowns per game. Atlanta has been an average offense that turns the ball over too much.

In his career at home in November, Russell Wilson is 11-2. Contrary to this, Ryan is 8-9 on the road in the month of November. The Seahawks offense is seventh in total yards and second in terms of total passing yards. Wilson has only thrown six interceptions and ranks in the top 10 in yards per pass.

Atlanta turns the ball over more, is on the road and has the weaker quarterback. This should be a solid win for Wilson and the Seahawks.

 

Featured image from Zimbio.com

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Devonta Freeman fantasy

Fantasy football Injury: Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman suffered a concussion on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. He did not return to the game after the injury.

That led to the speedster Tevin Coleman taking over for Freeman. Coleman could be in line for some production and become a fantasy asset should Freeman miss time.

Tevin Colman Outlook

Coleman set season highs with 20 rushing attempts and 83 rushing yards. He also found the end zone on a one-yard plunge in the last moments of the second quarter and caught a pass for five yards. In his first eight games this season, Coleman had just 63 carries with 316 yards, giving him an average of five yards per carry. He also had one rushing touchdown on the year, and has been a threat in the receiving game with two touchdowns.

Devonta Freeman fantasy

Tevin Coleman (Photo from thefalcoholic.com)

The former Indiana Hoosier star has an explosive presence out of the backfield to make himself a high-end RB2 with RB1 potential. It doesn’t matter how he does it whether it’s running, catching etc. He will make things happen. He proved that last season with 941 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage on 149 touches.

One thing with Coleman, along with the Falcons offense, is consistency. In Week 8 against the New York Jets, he had an impressive 104 total yards. The following week against the Carolina Panthers he had just 24 total yards. It happened earlier in Week 4 against the Buffalo Bills when he had 142 total yards and in Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins he had only 36 total yards. Some of that is due to the Falcons’ struggles in the past few weeks closing out games.

But Coleman will have tremendous value. As reported on Monday, it looks as if Freeman will miss the game next week on Monday night against the Seattle Seahawks following his second concussion.

Fantasy impact on The Falcons offense

To the concern of whether Coleman’s impact as the starter affects the Falcons’ surrounding offensive players, fantasy owners shouldn’t be too worried. However, don’t think this could impact the Falcons receivers.

Devonta Freeman fantasy

Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu (Photo from cbssports.com)

Coleman is a great receiving back that can catch the ball out of the backfield. There could be days where he has better receiving numbers then other Falcons players.

Now for Julio Jones owners, of course this means very little, even if Coleman has a better game. Others like Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper could have less targets because of Coleman playing more snaps. The Falcons should continue to use their weapons as frequent as they have all season though. For Matt Ryan, this gives him another weapon and possibly more fantasy points.

Overall, Coleman will be used in any way they need him on offense, but the Falcons will use everyone to move the ball downfield.

Conclusion

In the end, Coleman should have value even when Freeman comes back from injury. If he is not owned, now is the time to get him as he isn’t available in a lot of leagues.

Devonta Freeman fantasy

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (Photo from si.com)

As for Freeman, he is expected to miss at least next week as mentioned before. When he comes back, he will be back to the role he had all season as the main back and split time with Coleman as long he doesn’t have any setbacks.

Expect the Falcons to ease Freeman back in form and use Coleman a little more.

 

 

 

 

Featured image from atlantafalcons.com. 

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Week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Report card

Week 9 was the first time all season I cashed when the week number was a multiple of 3. I know, why would anyone keep track of that? Well, when you lose badly on Week 3 and 6, you are highly aware of Week 9, 12, 15 moving forward.

Anyways, it was my best week of the year in terms of profit and picks. We nailed almost everything on the Suck My DFS Podcast and our picks for the Week 9 DFS don’ts.

Quarterback: 4/6

On our podcast, my three quarterbacks to build around were Russell Wilson, Alex Smith and Jared Goff. Now, I ended up not playing Alex Smith on my cash games and taking my co-host’s advice on Jacoby Brissett in my tournaments. I missed out on a great game from Goff, but still managed to have a good day as all three of these quarterbacks made value in cash games and probably helped you win a tournament.

On the other hand, Matt Ryan and Marcus Mariota managed to have good games and prove me wrong. However, Brock Osweiler was not good. It might seem cheap, but I saw tournament lineups on FanDuel with Osweiler so I’m counting it as a win.

Running Back: 4/6

I was struggling to predict the running back position all season. But finally, in the running back edition of Week 9 DFS don’ts, I came through. Devonta Freeman, C.J. Anderson and Alex Collins all failed to make value in a cash game, and I couldn’t be happier.

Conversely, Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey were great. Gurley was a staple in my tournament lineups.

Sadly, I whiffed on Mark Ingram while my co-host nailed it with Alvin Kamara. Thankfully, Gurley carried my lineups to victory.

Wide Receiver: 4/6

Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald all failed to make value. I’m not counting Jamison Crowder. He ended up not being active, so I won’t count that as a win or a loss.

Thank goodness for that Tyreek Hill play at the end of the first half! I haven’t sweated a game harder all year. While that play was great, Hill came up just short of doubling his value for cash purposes, so that’s a loss.

I don’t know if you heard, but T.Y. Hilton had a decent game, right? His price was too attractive this week and forced me to play him on all my tournament lineups. Russell Shepard ended up being a dud, but not a bad week as a whole though.

Tight End: 3/5

For my Week 9 DFS don’ts at the tight end position, I named Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham and Ryan Griffin. Kelce had a great game and finished as the second highest scoring tight end on Sunday. Graham and Griffin both came up short.

On the podcast, I liked Evan Engram and Vernon Davis. Like Tyreek Hill, Davis came up less than a point short of making value in a cash game. I sadly played Jack Doyle instead of Engram. I couldn’t find a way to fit him in at that price despite really liking him.

Kicker: 1/3

This was my worst call of the season at this position. I totally missed on Brandon McManus, but I wasn’t going anywhere near that Denver offense. Mike Nugent came up very small, but he wasn’t needed. Cody Parkey didn’t make value, so that’s my only win at this position.

Defense: 2/3

Jacksonville was the chalk this past weekend, and I was happy to swallow it on all my lineups. Cincinnati wasn’t able to get it done against a running game without Leonard Fournette. And, if not for a touchdown, Houston’s defense would have failed to make value as well.

Overall Score: 18/29

I don’t know if I’ll have a week this good again, but I’ll take 62 percent correct. Hopefully Week 10 will be as good. Check out our latest piece on which kicker(s) and defense(s) to keep off your DFS lineups.

 

Featured image from Grizzly Bear Blues

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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NFL Week 9

Stack your money Sunday’s: Week 9

Teams against the spread through Week 8

Buffalo 5-1-1

Kansas City 6-2

Philadelphia 6-2

NY Jets 5-2-1

Houston 5-2

New Orleans 5-2

Houston 5-2

Chicago 5-3

Minnesota 5-3

Pittsburgh 5-3

Jacksonville 4-3

Dallas 4-3

LA Rams 4-3

Indianapolis 4-4

San Francisco 4-4

Miami 3-3-1

Carolina 4-4

New England 4-4

Baltimore 4-4

NY Giants 3-4

Seattle 3-4

Cincinnati 3-4

LA Chargers 3-4-1

Green Bay 3-4

Tennessee 3-4

Detroit 3-4

Oakland 3-5

Denver 2-4-1

Atlanta 2-5

Washington 2-5

Cleveland 2-6

Tampa Bay 1-5-1

Arizona 1-6

 

Week 8 Review (1-2) Overall: 15-8-1

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Detroit Lions 15

NFL Week 9

The Steelers sit atop the AFC. (Photo from FanRag Sports)

JuJu on that beat! With Martavis Bryant suspended, Smith-Schuster, the wideout from USC, had seven receptions for 193 yards, including a 97-yard touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger during the third quarter. Pittsburgh’s defense was phenomenal, forcing two turnovers and not allowing Detroit to score a touchdown.

It appeared the Lions still had a shot when they were down one in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, Matt Stafford was sacked on fourth down. On third and fourth down, the Lions were a combined 2-14. The turnover on downs led to the big JuJu touchdown.

Matt Prater did not disappoint fantasy teams, as he knocked in a total of five field goals.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ New York Jets

Atlanta Falcons 25 New York Jets 20

Two points away from covering. Close but no cigar. The Jets looked like they were going to pull off the upset heading into halftime with a 17-13 lead.

A Matt Bryant field goal and a Mohamed Sanu touchdown put the Falcons ahead with less than 13 minutes to play. The Jets were unable to score a touchdown in the second half, and Atlanta squeaked out a close one.

The Falcons, who have an average run defense, shutdown New York, allowing only 43 yards on 22 carries. They also limited the Jets to a mere 15 first downs, which is tied for their best performance of the year.

Atlanta looks to continue their success this week, going on the road to face Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.

Oakland Raiders (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills 34 Oakland Raiders 14

The Raiders are truly the most unpredictable team in the league. They went into this game following an emotional win over Kansas City, and appeared to be the better team. That was until the game actually started. Oakland turned the ball over not once, twice, or even three times, but four times, including a pair of interceptions by Derek Carr. They have now lost five games, which is already more than last season.

Give credit to the Bills, who look like a legitimate playoff team, even though they just got smacked by the Jets. Tyrod Taylor continues to not turn the ball over, and LeSean McCoy is playing like vintage Shady McCoy. McCoy had a 48-yard touchdown run and added a little spice, holding the ball out from 10 yards out to taunt the pitiful Oakland defense.

At this point, I think it is safe to say the Bills are more likely to play in the playoffs than the Raiders.

WEEK 9 PICKS

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ New York Giants

PICK: RAMS TO COVER

The Rams are coming off a bye, which means they had an extra week to prepare for this one-win Giants team. Quite frankly, the Rams are just the better team. They are second in scoring, sixth in yards per play and eighth in first downs. Their defense also ranks ninth against the pass.

On the other hand, the Giants, on both sides of the ball, have been a mess. New York ranks 24th in yards per play on both offense and defense. Eli Manning has his team at 29th in plays per drive and last in first downs. Their defense ranks 23rd in rushing yards allowed, which is not great considering the Rams are the sixth best rushing team, largely due to Todd Gurley.

New York just isn’t scoring, as they rank 29th in percentage of offensive drives ending in a score. The Rams rank third in that department, which is clearly a major difference.

This game could end up in a double-digit victory for the Rams. The Giants cannot run the football, so if Eli struggles, watch out.

Also, the Rams love to score right off the bat, ranking fourth in first quarter points per game. On the flip side, the Giants are 31st. As for third down conversions, the Rams are first in the league, while New York ranks 29th.

Numbers don’t tell the whole story, but I think it’s clear that the Giants are not very good at the moment. Keep in mind Janoris Jenkins will not be playing this week either.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Carolina Panthers

PICK: FALCONS TO COVER

Not only did Cam Newton lose his best friend on the team, Kelvin Benjamin, but he lost his best receiver. Newton has publicly expressed that he is not a fan of the move, so expect a shaky start for the former MVP.

Carolina has lost two out of their last three games, and currently rank 23rd in points. Newton is not playing like an MVP, as he already has 11 interceptions.

Although it is somewhat of a disappointing start for Atlanta, they are still very solid. Their offense ranks fifth in yards, fourth in yards per rushing attempt, and fifth in first downs. Atlanta has the 11th ranked defense, which is the second best defense the Panthers have seen this year. The Falcons also rank second in yards per drive, while Carolina is 20th.

Matt Ryan has been somewhat average and has thrown more interceptions than usual. Luckily, the Panthers do not force many turnovers, as they rank 27th in that department.

If it comes down to the wire, Carolina is 27th in fourth quarter points per game, which cannot be trusted. Take the Falcons on the road.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (-3)

PICK: TITANS TO COVER

NFL Week 9

Expect big numbers from the Titans’ backfield. (Photo from Titans Online)

Like the Rams, the Titans are also coming off of a bye week. They sit atop the AFC South, tied with the Jags for a share of first place, so a home game like this is a must win.

When the Titans rush the ball for over 100 yards, they are 3-0. Baltimore ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, letting up almost 133 yards per contest.

As long as the Titans stick to the run, they will be fine. Even after the Ravens 40-0 win over Miami, they still rank dead last in passing yards, and second to last in overall yards. Their running game has been decent, but Tennessee defends the run well, and sits fifth in opponent rushing yards per attempt.

Expect Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry to run wild, and for Joe Flacco to continue to look bad, especially after nearly being concussed a week ago.

 

Featured image by myAJC.com

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week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Quarterback

If you are trying to cash in a large GPP or finish in the money in all of your cash games, you have to make value at the quarterback position. What do I mean? I mean your quarterback at an absolute minimum has to double his value. So, let’s examine which quarterbacks, beyond the obvious players like Carson Wentz and Andy Dalton, are not likely to double their value. Let’s find out which quarterbacks we need to keep off our lineups in the quarterback edition of Week 9 DFS don’ts.

Marcus Mariota: FanDuel Price $7,800

Despite Marcus Mariota being completely healthy, he’s not someone to consider this week. We traditionally love quarterbacks with rushing upside because they have a higher floor than most quarterbacks. Mariota absolutely fits that description, but it won’t be enough this week.

The Baltimore Ravens have been unbelievable against quarterbacks this season. They have only allowed one quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game. That quarterback was Blake Bortles, and that game took place in London. What I’m getting at is that performance was an outlier and not who the Ravens are. This defense has also held their past four opponents to under 200 net passing yards. This defense also has a top 10 corner, according to Pro Football Focus, with Jimmy Smith.

Matchup aside, Mariota will likely be without his tight end Delanie Walker, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury. The Ravens are also more susceptible on the ground than through the air. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Titans try to pound DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry 10 to 15 times a piece.

As always, there are far superior players in Mariota’s price range this week if you don’t want to pay up at quarterback.

Matt Ryan: FanDuel Price $7,600

Matt Ryan’s 2017 performance goes beyond a normal regression to the mean. Of course it wasn’t realistic to expect a similar season, but this drop-off is startling.

week 9 DFS don'ts

The look on Matt Ryan’s face says it all and doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in me as a DFS player. (Photo from Sporting News)

This year, Ryan has just as many multi-interception games as he does multi-touchdown games. This past Sunday was the first time all season where Ryan threw for more than one touchdown and did not throw an interception. To his credit, he performed in unconventional conditions on the road. However, he doesn’t get to play the Jets this weekend.

For the same reasons Devonta Freeman is on the Week 9 DFS don’ts list, Ryan has a tough road matchup. Granted, Ryan has inexplicably been better on the road in terms of fantasy production, but it doesn’t happen for him this weekend. Yes, Julio Jones has performed well in this matchup, but those performances have come at home against the Panthers. Even if Jones has a monster game, it’s still possible that Matt Ryan doesn’t make value.

I can’t believe I’ve gone three paragraphs into Matt Ryan and haven’t complained about Steve Sarkisian yet. It’s actually because I don’t blame him for Ryan’s regression as much as I blame him for Freeman’s. It isn’t Sarkisian’s fault Matt Ryan is missing open receivers. However, it is his fault for not recognizing Ryan’s struggles and adjusting accordingly.

Until I see the Falcons establish a clear identity, I’m off them moving forward.

Brock Osweiler: FanDuel Price $6,000

Don’t get cute. I only have him listed because I have been talking to players who are seriously giving this some thought, as he would only need 12 points to make value in a cash game lineup.

Have we already forgotten how bad he was last year with the Texans? He’ll be making his first start, on the road, against a great front seven. Not to mention, the Eagles’ secondary is no longer the pushover that they were at the beginning of the season.

This is an absolute trap for DFS players. Do not fall for it. Osweiler joins Mariota and Ryan on the Week 9 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured Image from Tennessee Titans

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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Top rookie quarterback seasons

Top rookie quarterback seasons of the 2000s

Although Deshaun Watson lost in a shootout to Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, the rookie quarterback from Clemson has been nothing short of spectacular for the Houston Texans. After a four-touchdown performance on Sunday, Watson now has the record for most touchdown passes in a player’s first seven NFL games with 19. We are only halfway through the season, and Watson already has the rookie record for most three-passing touchdown games in a season with four.

How was this man the third quarterback taken in the draft? How did the Browns not grab him first overall? More importantly, how was Tom Savage the original starter for the Texans? Nonetheless, Watson looks like a franchise quarterback, something that Houston has never seen before.

Will Watson finish his rookie season better than these standouts? Here, we have developed a list of rookie quarterbacks from the 2000s, who had stellar first seasons.

Ben Roethlisberger (2004)

13 starts: 13-0, 18 total TDs, 11 INTs, 66.4 comp. pct., 2,621 yards

It would be almost impossible for anyone to top what Big Ben did to start his professional career. Originally, Roethlisberger was the third quarterback on the depth chart, but the backup, Charlie Batch, went down with an injury in the preseason. Then Tommy Maddox suffered an injury in Week 2, giving the 11th overall pick from Miami (OH) a shot earlier than expected. After almost bringing the Steelers back in their Week 2 loss to Baltimore, Roethlisberger remained the starter for the rest of the season.

Big Ben wound up finishing the regular season with a 13-0 record as a starter. He helped end the New England Patriots record 21-game winning streak by throwing a pair of touchdowns and no turnovers in a 34-20 victory. The following game, Roethlisberger and the Steelers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, who were 7-0 at the time. At the end of the season, Roethlisberger was unanimously selected as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Pittsburgh ended up losing to the Patriots, 41-27 in the AFC Championship Game. While Roethlisberger struggled and threw three interceptions, the Steelers had found their quarterback for years to come.

Vince Young (2006)

13 starts: 8-5, 19 total TDs, 13 INTs, 552 rushing yards, 2,199 passing yards

Top rookie quarterback seasons

The comeback kid, Vince Young (Photo from NYDailyNews)

Unlike Roethlisberger, who played with an all-time great defense, Young joined a four-win Titans team after being selected third overall in the 2006 NFL Draft. After Kerry Collins was benched because of an 0-3 start, Young took over and excelled.

He went on to win eight of his thirteen games. Four of those eight wins were fourth-quarter comebacks, including the Titans 24-21 victory over Eli Manning and the Giants. After being down 21-0, Young rallied the troops and statistically had the best game of his career. He finished with 249 passing yards, two touchdowns, 69 rushing yards, and a passer rating of 107.9.

The following week against Eli’s brother Peyton, who had his Colts sitting at 10-1, Young led another come-from-behind win over Indianapolis. This was the first time in NFL history that a rookie quarterback led two 14-point or more comeback wins in the same season.

Due to a Philip Rivers injury, Young was named to the 2007 Pro Bowl. He would also go on to win the NFL Rookie of the Year.

Matt Ryan (2008) 

16 starts: 11-5, 17 total TDs, 11 INTs, 61.1 comp. pct., 3,440 passing yards

The year before Ryan was selected, Atlanta finished 4-12. As a rookie, Ryan led the Falcons to an 11-5 record, which was good enough for a spot in the playoffs.

His first NFL pass resulted in a 62-yard touchdown to Michael Jenkins. He went on to become the first Falcons rookie quarterback to throw for over 3,000 yards in a season. In the history of the NFL, only 12 quarterbacks have thrown for over 3,000 yards in their rookie season.

In his first playoff start, Ryan was up against Kurt Warner, who is 15 years older than Ryan. While Ryan threw a pair of touchdowns, the Falcons ultimately fell to Warner’s Cardinals 30-24. For his stellar regular season, Ryan was named AP NFL Rookie of the Year.

Cam Newton (2011)

16 starts: 6-10, 35 total TDs, 17 INTs, 60.0 comp. pct., 4,051 passing yards

Top rookie quarterback seasons

Super-Cam (Photo from IMG Academy)

Although Newton and the Carolina Panthers only managed to win six games, the Auburn star showed the world why he was the first overall pick in his draft class.

Right off the bat, he became the first rookie to throw for over 400 yards in his first career game. Newton also became the first rookie quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards.

“Superman” Cam was named the NFL Rookie of the Year, and was also an alternate, and later a member of the NFC Pro Bowl team.

 

 

Andrew Luck (2012)

16 starts: 11-5, 28 total TDs, 18 INTs, 4,374 passing yards

Just like Newton, Luck was selected first overall, and was immediately called on to start. The successor to Peyton Manning led the Colts into a Wild Card game, which they ended up losing to the Ravens.

During the season, Luck and the Colts upset Aaron Rodgers’ Packers on a game-winning touchdown pass, in which Luck found Reggie Wayne with 35 seconds left. In Week 9 against Miami, Luck threw for 433 yards, which became the new record for most yards in a game by a rookie quarterback. In a late December game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Luck broke the record for most passing yards in a season.

Russell Wilson (2012)

16 starts: 11-5, 30 total TDs, 10 INTs, 64.1 comp. pct., 3,118 passing yards, 489 rushing yards

Even after the addition of Matt Flynn, Russell Wilson was named the starting quarterback in August. Wilson helped the Seahawks reach 11 regular-season wins and earned his first playoff victory by defeating the Redskins 24-14 in come-from-behind fashion. In the divisional round, Wilson threw for 385 yards, but Seattle fell to Atlanta, 30-28.

Wilson finished the regular season with a passer rating of 100.0, which was good for fourth in the league. His 26 passing touchdowns tied Peyton Manning’s record for most touchdowns thrown by a rookie.

Robert Griffin III (2012)

15 starts: 9-6, 27 total TDs, 5 INTs, 65.6 comp. pct., 3,200 passing yards, 815 rushing yards

Top rookie quarterback seasons

RG3 had a miraculous rookie season. (Photo fromBleacher Report)

As a rookie, RG3 looked like the real deal. In his starting debut, Griffin threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns in a victory over the New Orleans Saints. He became the first rookie quarterback to be named NFC Offensive Player of the Week in a debut game. Griffin was also named September’s Offensive Rookie of the Month.

Following a bye week in November, the Redskins voted RG3 an offensive co-captain. After the nomination, in a game against the Eagles, Griffin became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for 200 yards, pass for four touchdowns, and rush for over 75 yards in a single game.

A lingering knee injury caused Griffin to slow down, and ultimately led to the end of the Redskins season, as Washington was defeated by Seattle in a Wild Card game. He would undergo surgery, and as we know, nothing was the same.

Still, Griffin was selected to the Pro Bowl, and also won the 2012 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Dak Prescott (2016)

16 starts: 13-3, 29 total TDs, 4 INTs, 67.8 comp. pct, 3,667 passing yards, 104.9 quarterback rating

Tony Romo’s preseason injury changed Dallas forever. Romo now works for CBS, and Prescott is busy leading America’s team.

Last year, Prescott set the records for highest passer rating by a rookie quarterback (104.9) and highest touchdown to interception ratio (5.75:1). His 67.8 completion percentage was good for fourth in the league. Prescott was a major contributor to Dallas’ 11-game winning streak, spanning from Week 2-13.

The Cowboys won the NFC East, but were defeated by the Packers in the divisional round. In that loss to Green Bay, Prescott threw for 302 yards and had a quarterback rating of 103.2. His incredible season made him the obvious choice for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He edged out his teammate, Ezekiel Elliott, by seven votes.

 

Featured image from Bleacher Report

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NFL Week 8

Stack your money Sundays: Week 8

Week 7 Review (2-0-1) OVERALL: 14-6-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills (-3)

Buffalo Bills 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Our first push of the year! Rex Ryan told the world that the Bills would blow out Tampa Bay, and through the first half and into the third, it appeared like this was a solid prediction. The Bills led 17-6 with under eight minutes to play in the third quarter. A pair of O.J. Howard touchdowns knotted the game at 20.

Mike Evans hauled in a 12-yard touchdown and all of a sudden, the Buccaneers led by seven with three minutes to go. Luckily, the Bills drove down the field and a touchdown by LeSean McCoy tied the game. A fumble by Tampa Bay led to a Steven Hauschka field goal, which iced the game for Buffalo.

Like imagined, the Bills ran wild, totalling 173 yards on 33 carries, and were extremely efficient on third down, converting 10 of 16 attempts in that category.

Kudos to Jameis Winston for keeping the Bucs in this game, as he threw for almost 400 yards and threw three touchdowns. Shout out to the Bills on their 4-2 start.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

Los Angeles Rams 33 Arizona Cardinals 0

NFL Week 8

Cooper Krupp had 4 receptions for 51 yards and one TD in the rout. (Photo from The Daily Courier)

The Cardinals never stood a chance in this one. Carson Palmer, who left the game due to an injury, might have participated in his last NFL game.

The Cardinals might as well throw in the towel now if Drew Stanton starts another game. He looked absolutely horrendous, as he completed only five passes for 66 yards, along with an interception. Adrian Peterson, who I said would not have another big game, rushed for a grand total of 21 yards on 11 carries. As a team, the Cardinals rushed for 25 yards.

The Rams just continue to dominate. Can we put Greg Zuerlein in the MVP discussion? Another four field goal day for the best kicker in the league. Todd Gurley rushed for 106 yards and added 48 more as a receiver.

While Jared Goff did not have great numbers, he still helped the Rams convert 13 of their 19 third down attempts. The second-year quarterback continues to impress.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-3.5)

New England Patriots 23 Atlanta Falcons 7

The Falcons are a completely different team than last year, and last Sunday night proved it.

On a field full of fog, Atlanta was no match for Tom Brady and the Patriots. You would have thought Matt Ryan would get his team fired up and quiet down the “28-3” chants, but then you remember that Ryan is just a pretty good quarterback who had one outstanding year.

It took the Falcons almost 56 minutes to finally score, as Julio Jones caught his first touchdown of the season. Neither team turned the ball over, but Atlanta only converted on two of their nine third down attempts. New England controlled the game, as they possessed the ball for almost 10 minutes more than Atlanta. The Falcons have now lost their last three games.

 

WEEK 8 PICKS

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Detroit Lions

PICK: STEELERS TO COVER

Besides Martavis Bryant being a total distraction, things are clicking in Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense has allowed the third fewest points and second fewest yards in the league.

Detroit prides themselves on passing the football, but it will be hard against this Pittsburgh D, who has allowed the fewest passing yards in the league. Le’Veon Bell is back and has rushed for 179 yards against the Chiefs and 134 more last week against Cincinnati.

NFL Week 8

JuJu on that beat! (Photo from The Big Lead)

Big Ben Roethlisberger is also playing better and is a perfect 3-0 against Detroit in his career. The narrative that Matthew Stafford only wins against bad teams is back again this year. Detroit beat a bad Cardinals team, a one-win Giants team and a Case Keenum led team. Their losses have come against the Panthers, Falcons and Saints, all solid teams with big-name quarterbacks.

Detroit’s defense is 28th in points allowed, and their offense is 25th in red zone scoring attempts. Pittsburgh loves to possess the football, as they rank third in time of possession and fourth in red zone attempts. The Steelers are clearly the better football team.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ New York Jets

PICK: FALCONS TO COVER

The Falcons are not playing well, and as stated before, have lost three straight. That is exactly why they are about to molly-whop the Jets. The media has been bashing them all week for being just an average team, led by an average quarterback. Matt Ryan shuts up the haters this week. I refuse to believe that the Falcons will lose to all four AFC East teams.

Even with their struggles, Atlanta is clearly the superior team. They are seventh in passing yards per game and fourth in yards per carry. The more Atlanta runs, the better off they will be, especially this week against the Jets, who are 28th in rushing yards allowed. The Falcons offense averages more plays than anyone, rank second in average time per drive and fifth in first downs per game.

No matter what their record says, the Jets are not a good team. Their offense is dead last in first downs, 22nd in passing yards and 30th in red zone attempts per game. New York’s defense is tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed and are currently 25th in yards allowed. Matt Ryan will have a huge game against this lackluster Jets team.

Oakland Raiders (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills

PICK: RAIDERS TO COVER

Oakland is coming off a monster win against the Chiefs in which they picked up 32 first downs. Derek Carr looks healthy after his monster 417 yard, three touchdown performance last week.

Still, Oakland is 3-4 and needs to win games like this one on the road. Last year, Carr was 7-1 in opposing stadiums. In their matchup a season ago, Oakland beat the Bills by 14.

The Raiders rushing defense is improving. After allowing 95 yards or more in their first five games, the Raiders have shut down the run in the last two weeks. Marshawn Lynch is suspended, but it really doesn’t matter since he is not playing like the Marshawn that we are used to. Buffalo is 26th in passing yards allowed, so look for Carr to abuse this secondary.

Although Tyrod Taylor looks good, he will not win you big games. The Bills are 29th in passing yards and 26th in first downs. They run a ton, as they rank second in rushing attempts, but it is not effective. The Bills are currently 24th in yards per carry.

Expect Oakland to come out the gates and score early, as they rank in the top 10 in first quarter points. The Bills are dead last in this category, which means this game could be out of hand early.

 

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Stack your money Sunday’s: Week 7

Week six review (0-3) OVERALL: 12-6

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings 23 Green Bay Packers 10

A legal, but dirty, hit by Minnesota Vikings star Anthony Barr cost the Packers their season. In the first quarter, Aaron Rodgers went down and suffered a broken collarbone. Brett Hundley took over, and was an absolute disaster. The Packers were only down four at half, and still had a legitimate shot to win, but Hundley was just terrible. The UCLA standout finished with three interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 39.6.

This was just an ugly game, and totally unlucky for bettors. Both teams had trouble getting much going, as neither were able to score a touchdown in the second half. Credit to Minnesota’s defense, and with the Rodgers injury, the Vikings should be able to win the NFC North.

Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Los Angeles Rams 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

“Greg The Leg” has been vital for the Rams (LA Times)

This was another rather unlucky game. Had I known the Jags would be a total disaster on special teams, I would have avoided this matchup.

On the opening kickoff, Rams return man Pharoh Cooper took it the house on a 103-yard touchdown return. In the second quarter, Los Angeles blocked a Jaguars punt and returned it for a score.

The Jaguars defense remained elite, only allowing one touchdown to the opposition. Blake Bortles played alright, and Leonard Fournette, who got injured in the game, tore up the Rams defense. Fournette ran for 130 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown in response to Cooper’s kickoff return. Rams special teams won them this game, and we haven’t even mentioned Greg Zuerlein, who hit two field goals, including one from 56 yards out.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (-3)

Los Angeles Chargers 17 Oakland Raiders 16

While Derek Carr looked amazing against the Chiefs in their Thursday night win, last Sunday was a totally different story. Carr, who was most likely playing injured, threw a pair of interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 67.5. The Raiders just couldn’t move the football, with a total of only 274 yards.

Philip Rivers deserves some love, as he led the Chargers down the field, setting up a Nick Novak game-winner as time expired. Solid win for Los Angeles, but at 2-4, it’s going be tough to climb into playoff contention.

WEEK 7 PICKS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills (-3)

PICK: BILLS TO COVER

The Bills are a lot better than people think, and Jameis Winston is not as good as we thought he would be. Winston is questionable, but is expected to start. Winston looked bad against the Patriots, and terrible against the Vikings. This is a Buffalo defense who has allowed the fewest points in all of the NFL, and should have no problem shutting down Winston.

Expect a big game from LeSean McCoy (SportingNews)

Buffalo has allowed fewer passing touchdowns than any team in the league, and currently rank seventh in fewest rushing yards allowed.  The Bills are only allowing 85 yards per game on the ground. In the 12 previous games in which the Bucs rushed for 85 yards or less, they went 3-9. Tampa Bay is a pass heavy team, and Buffalo is second In the NFL in interceptions.

The Buccaneers defense is quite abysmal. They currently rank 30th in total yards allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed. They have the fewest sacks in the league, and if you can’t get to Tyrod Taylor, he will make you pay with his feet.

The Bucs are also allowing the fourth highest quarterback rating to opposing quarterbacks. They aren’t any prettier in the red zone, allowing the second most red zone opportunities for opposing teams.

Tyrod will not put up huge numbers, but he rarely turns the ball over, and has kept Buffalo in every game. The last time LeSean McCoy played the Bucs, he ran for 116 yards, so expect big things from Shady.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

PICK: RAMS TO COVER

As weird as this may sound, the Rams are legit. They are still first in the league in scoring, and fourth in the league in third down percentage. Arizona’s defense currently ranks 28th in points allowed, and 30th in points allowed per red zone trip.

Carson Palmer is washed up, and has been getting absolutely demolished this season. He has already thrown six interceptions, and has been a sacked a grand total of 21 times. Because of this, Arizona is 24th in points per drive. They almost blew a huge lead to Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think that says enough.

Although Adrian Peterson had a nice game last week, I don’t see it happening again. On the flip side, Todd Gurley is averaging over four yards per carry in his career versus the Cardinals. The Rams defend the pass well, and are first in the league in field goals per drive, all thanks to the best kicker in the league, Greg Zuerlein. Look for the Rams to continue their early success.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-3.5)

PICK: PATRIOTS TO COVER

The Super Bowl rematch preview is a lot different than we expected. The Patriots defense is a disaster, and Matt Ryan is back to being his average self. He has thrown six interceptions and his Falcons are a totally different team than last season. They have already lost to the Bills and the Dolphins.

It should also be noted that they were literally inches away from losing to the Lions, and an end zone drop away from losing to the Bears. Atlanta’s defense has caused the fewest turnovers in the league, and cannot get off the field. They currently rank 31st in average time per opposing drive.

Matt Ryan has never beaten the Patriots, but this should be a shootout. Expect New England’s defense to look a little better, and for the Pats to win by at least seven.

 

Featured image by Bleacher Report

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Aaron Rodgers fantasy

Fantasy football injury: Aaron Rodgers

Injuries continued in the NFL on Sunday to key players in fantasy football. The major one was to Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers left the game after awkwardly landing on his throwing shoulder and was diagnosed with a broken collarbone. This is the second time Rodgers has broken his collarbone. The first time was back in 2013 on his left shoulder. Although the Packers haven’t given a timetable for him to return, there is a possibility he could miss the rest of the season. Brett Hundley is the next man up in Green Bay.

Passing Game Going Forward

Aaron Rodgers fantasy football injury

Devante Adams (Photo from packersnews.com)

Of course every fantasy owner of Rodgers is devastated. Most owners don’t have a backup because well, he’s Aaron Rodgers. Besides Rodgers owners, fantasy owners of Green Bay offensive players are also in a panic, especially owners of their receivers. If you had someone in the passing offense in Green Bay, you knew you would get a solid day with the best quarterback throwing them the ball. From this point forward, the expectations of the Packers’ passing game should be down.

With Hundley under center, it’s unlikely guys like Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams will have a 100-yard game or multiple touchdowns on a weekly basis. From this week on, they are more touchdown dependent. There will be that one receiver each week that will outperform the rest, but not have tremendous numbers. Players like Martellus Bennett and Randall Cobb should be on your bench.

The Run Game

The run game will be the go-to for the Packers to make Hundley more comfortable. While the running backs in Green Bay could be the fantasy go-to, don’t expect big numbers like some situations when starting quarterbacks go down.

Teams going forward against the Packers are going to dare Hundley to throw the ball and focus on stopping the run. The other thing to look at is the Packers’ running backs. Ty Montgomery had 10 carries on 20 snaps and Aaron Jones had 13 carries on 40 snaps. Jones looks to be the better of the two, but expect in the middle of the game that whoever has the hot hand will get the football.

How to view Hundley

Hundley looks to be the long-term replacement for Rodgers for the season. He completed 18 of 33 passes for a modest 157 yards with three interceptions and one touchdown to Adams. It’s not the best game, but for Hundley, this was all about keeping them in the game and keeping it close, which he did at some points. He has watched and learned from one of the best. Maybe once he get’s a practice in and develops chemistry with the offense, he could be ready and prepared going forward.

Aaron Rodgers fantasy football injury

Brett Hundley (Photo from jsonline.com)

One could argue he could be a good game time manager. He nailed 63.2 percent of his preseason passes and hit on 67.4 percent of his passes over three seasons at UCLA. He does have ability, and with the talent around him, he should have success and have good outings going forward.

From this point, he will play the Saints, Lions, Bears, Ravens, Steelers and Buccaneers with a week 8 bye. It could be worse. Out of the six teams, only the Ravens and Steelers have top-10 defenses against receivers and quarterbacks.

But do we really think he’s the solution to replace Rodgers for the Packers and your fantasy team? Heck no. He’s a matchup guy in fantasy, or in some instances, just on the wavier wire till he proves himself. Unless you’re really desperate now, I would avoid Hundley in any format.

What to do with Rodgers

There’s no way to make this easy, but for all of us, you may have to cut him. This injury is worse then his previous one in 2013. He can’t be depended on at this point. With not many good quarterbacks in the wavier wire, it could be time to make a trade.

One good candidate is Matt Ryan. Fantasy owners are getting frustrated with him and you could get him for a good price if you have depth of players. If you can’t make a trade, then look at the streamable quarterbacks with good matchups.

The injuries in fantasy football continue, and this one might be the hardest to swallow. I don’t think he will be back anytime soon. My one piece of advice is to wait for any news in the coming days before making your move. At this point, it’s up to you whether to keep him or not.

 

Featured image from sbnation.com.

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Houston Texans receivers fantasy

Fantasy football: Week five quarterbacks to pick up

If you owned and had high hopes for, Derek Carr this season, you just took a hit. Maybe you own Drew Brees or Matt Ryan and need to find a quick and effective fill in. If that’s the case, this list is for you. Here are three streaming options at quarterback in week five.

Case Keenum/Sam Bradford (Minnesota Vikings)

fantasy football: week five quarterbacks

billypenn.com

Usually I’m against taking a Vikings quarterback for fantasy reasons. They’re a team who usually stays in games with their defense and run game, while not relying heavily on the passing attack. Now they go up against a Chicago defense who has allowed 15.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Sam Bradford looked sharp in the season opener, backing up his chemistry with Stefon Diggs. On track to return in week five, Sam Bradford could be big for the Vikings this week. An ineffective run game may help his case.

With Dalvin Cook out for the season and Latavius Murray still nursing an ankle injury that required surgery, the Vikings run game will not be as effective as it has been so far this season.

The Vikings may have to resort to more of a passing game against the Bears, and with weapons like Kyle Rudolph, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, whoever starts for the Vikings has the opportunity to put up big numbers and should be a solid streaming option at quarterback.

Deshaun Watson (Houston Texans)

Wow, what a game from rookie Deshaun Watson. I don’t think anyone expected him to go off against a good Titans defense like he did in week four. With 283 passing yards and five total touchdowns while leading the Texans to a franchise-record 57 points scored, Deshaun Watson was a top the player rankings last week.

Now the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs come into town looking to knock off the surging Texans. The Chiefs have been stout against opposing quarterbacks giving up only 14 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

I definitely think that Deshaun Watson is worth a start after coming off of the week he had, but this pickup is also for the future. In week six, the Browns travel to play the Texans and they’ve given up a whopping 21 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, including 27 to Jacoby Brissett.

Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)

fantasy football: week five quarterbacks

azcardinals.co

Carson Palmer is an interesting fantasy quarterback. He isn’t the most consistent player but he still seems to put up 15+ fantasy points per week. The Cardinals travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles and their thin secondary. Palmer doesn’t have the greatest weapons but he can always rely on the age-less Larry Fitzgerald.

Palmer has a 5:5 touchdown to interception ratio so he does make a lot of mistakes, and he’s missing one of his top pass catchers in David Johnson. However, he has thrown for 300+ yards in each of his last three games and threw three of his five interceptions in the first game of the season.

The Eagles have allowed almost 17 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and are definitely a team that Carson Palmer can torch if put in your lineup this week.

 

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