In the history of the MLB, there have been 296 no-hitters, and 23 perfect games. Fourty-five times we have seen players hit at least 50 home runs and drive in 100 or more RBIs in the same year. On 60 different occasions, we have seen a player steal 70 or more bases in a season. There have been 104 pitching seasons in which the player won at least 20 games, with an ERA below 2.00.
Only four players in the history of the sport have been able to hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases in the same year. The 40-40 club is the most exclusive group in baseball. The four members are Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano. Both Canseco and Rodriguez have admitted to using PEDs, and if you don’t think Barry Bonds used some sort of performance enhancer, then you probably live under a rock.
So why is it so hard to become a member of this hallowed fraternity? Will anyone else ever join? Were any players close? Don’t worry, we have the answers.
According to an article by RealClearScience, any sprinters, or jumpers, both men and women, peak around 25 years of age. Male Marathoners compete at their best around 29-30 years old. For professional hockey players, their peak is between the ages of 27 and 28. Triathletes peak at around 27-years-old. For baseball, players tend to be in their prime from ages 27-30.
The Boston Globe published an article in 2015 that used Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on offense, to determine when players peak. The piece states that “the greatest likelihood of finding a player worth 2.0 WAR on offense peaks quite clearly between the ages of 26 and 28.” The articles also can confirm that after turning 30, “players experience a clear and steady decline in the likelihood that they’ll be productive offensive contributors.” Long story short, hitting a lot of home runs and stealing a ton of bases can only be done in the first half of your career.
Since 1903, there have been only 32 occasions in which a player stole at least 40 bases, age 34 or older, in one season. Only 22 different players have hit 40 or more home runs after turning 34 years of age. Of players 33 years or older, only three, Davey Lopes, Joe Morgan and Ricky Henderson, had seasons in which they hit 15 or more home run, and stole at least 40 bases. This occurred only a total of seven times at age 32 or older.
Who was close?
The 30-30 club has 38 members. On 60 different occasions, some members achieving this more than once, we have seen players hit at least 30 home runs and steal 30 or more bases. Of the four players in the 40-40 club, two of them, Alex Rodriguez and Jose Canseco, both had only one season of at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Luckily, it was their 40-40 seasons. As far as the other two members, Bonds would go on to have five 30-30 seasons, and Soriano had four.
|PLAYERS WITH 2 OR MORE 30-30 SEASONS|
In 2002, Soriano, who would later join the 40-40 club in 2006, hit 39 home runs and had 41 stolen bases. Bobby Bonds, Matt Kemp and Vladimir Guerrero were all also one home run shy of joining the crew. In 1997, Barry Bonds hit the 40 home runs, but only managed 37 steals.
Will anyone else join?
Since a handful of players have been inches away, it seems as though someone will get over the hump and become the fifth member. This year, we saw more home runs hit in a single season than ever, so that part should be taken care of right? Yes, a ton of home runs were hit, but only five players hit at least 40 home runs. Of those five, Aaron Judge led the group in stolen bases with a grand total of nine. The number of attempts, as well as successful stolen bases, is decreasing.
In 1987, there was a total of 3585 stolen bases in the MLB. Keep in mind there were only 26 teams. In 1999, we saw that total hit 3,421. That same year, now with 30 teams, 21 different organizations stole at least 100 bases. In 2017, there were 2527 total steals. Only seven teams had at least 100. As you can tell, there were over 1000 more steals in 1987, then there were during this past season.
Since 2000, there has been only one year in which more than 20 players stole at least 30 bases in a season. The outlier, 2012, featured two of the 38 30-30 members, Ryan Braun and Mike Trout.
Meet the 40-40 Club
Jose Canseco (1988)
The first to ever do it, Canseco is also the only one to win the MVP award the same year as his 40-40 season. In April of 1988, Canseco guaranteed he would hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases, even though no player had accomplished this. By the end of the season, the 23-year-old had a .307 batting average, 120 runs scored, 124 RBIs, 42 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He carried his A’s all the way into the World Series, eventually losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games.
Barry Bonds (1996)
Bonds would go on to become the first National League player to join the club. That same season, Bonds joined the 300-300 club, having hit his 300th home run on April 27th. The only other members of the 300-300 club are Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, Carlos Beltran, Reggie Sanders and Steve Finley. Bonds finished the ’96 season with 42 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 129 RBIs, 151 walks and a .308 batting average. He finished fifth in MVP voting, as Chipper Jones captured his first, and only, MVP trophy.
Bonds was 31 years old at the time, the oldest any of the four members accomplished this feat. Did someone say PEDs?
Alex Rodriguez (1998)
A-Rod, who was 22 years of age, stole 46 bases, the most of the four players. He also set the record for most home runs by an AL shortstop with 42. Rodriguez joined Ernie Banks and Rico Petrocelli, as the only shortstops to hit 40 or more home runs in a single-season. Somehow, Rodriguez finished ninth in MVP voting. The winner of the award, Juan Gonzalez, hit 45 home runs and drove in 157 RBIs.
Alfonso Soriano (2006)
After three 30-30 seasons from 2002-2005, Soriano, at age 30, became the fourth member of the club. Realistically, Soriano is the only “clean” member of this club, having never been accused of PEDs. 2006 was also his first year as a member of the Washington Nationals. In March, Manager Frank Robinson decided to play Soriano in left field. At first, Soriano refused to take the field, but once he realized sitting out would affect his salary, he gave in. This was a wise decision, and by the All-Star break, Soriano led the league in outfield assists. At the time, the only players to be named an All-Star at more than one position, were Stan Musial, Pete Rose, Robin Yount and, in 2006, Alfonso Soriano.
In August, he became the fastest player to reach 200 home runs and 200 stolen bases. On September 16, 2006, Soriano stole his 40th base, and became the only member to join the club while playing at home. He would later go on to become the only player to hit 40 home runs, steal 40 bases and reach 40 doubles in one season.
Featured image by SI.com
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