In fantasy baseball, it’s important to take advantage of selling high on players, rather than riding out their hot streaks until their value begins to fall. In the past, we have seen players like Joc Pederson be nearly untradeable after hitting 20 bombs in the first half of his rookie season, although his value dropped immensely after his batting average and home run totals plummeted in the second half.
On Saturday, I listed some players that you should buy low on in trade talks. Today, we’ll talk about who to ship away.
The following players may be having incredible seasons, but their values are clearly at their peak, making them perfect sell high targets.
Aaron Judge, Outfielder, New York Yankees
Judge has become one of the premier power hitters in the MLB, although now is the time to cash in. He is currently batting .328 with 26 home runs and 64 RBIs. If you were to move him now, you could likely get yourself an ace caliber pitcher in return, possibly a Chris Sale, Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw.
The 25-year-old’s BABIP of .420, or batting average on balls in play, is extremely unsustainable and has dropped about .13 points in the last seven days. Also, his HR/FB rate is at an astronomical 42 percent, which is also clearly unsustainable.
His batting average will drop and his home run pace will slow down. If you want to take advantage of Judge’s exorbitant trade value, now is the time.
Editor’s note: You can find more information on why Aaron Judge is a player to sell in this in-depth article.
Gio Gonzalez, Starting Pitcher, Washington Nationals
Gonzalez is having arguably his best season since 2012 when he finished third in the National League Cy Young voting. He is currently sporting a 2.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and an 8.30 K/9.
Even with the recently found success, this is the prime time to sell high on the 31-year-old. His left on base percentage is an unsustainable 85 percent, whereas his career rate is 73 percent. Gonzalez’s BABIP also seems unsustainable, as his career mark sits at .296 and his current mark is .268. Finally, his FIP of 4.28 is considered below average and his xFIP of 4.38 is considered poor.
Gonzalez seems to be getting very lucky in a multitude of ways. I would sell high before he is once again considered simply a streamer.
Marcel Ozuna, Outfielder, Miami Marlins
Ozuna has begun to emerged as one of the league’s best power hitters. So far in 2017, he is batting .320 with 20 home runs and 53 RBIs.
His career BABIP is .323, although his current BABIP sits at .355, suggesting that his batting average is bound to regress. Also, his current isolated power, or ISO, is .260 and his HR/FB rate is 29 percent, which both seem unsustainable as his career ISO is .175 and career HR/FB rate is 14 percent.
All of the analytics point towards regression, but if you also look at Ozuna’s track record of being a very poor second half player, it will make it easy to move on from the 26-year-old slugger.
On the career, his first half stats are .285 with 59 home runs, whereas his second half batting average is .243 with only 20 home runs. Now would be the time to move Ozuna before he likely burns out.
Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins
Santana is blatantly a sell high candidate. He is currently 9-4 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 6.66 K/9.
His FIP of 4.81 and xFIP of 4.93 are considered poor and awful by fangraphs.com, showing that the fielders behind him have kept his ratios afloat. The 34-year-old’s BABIP of .190 is the lowest among qualified starters and is absolutely unsustainable. Also, his left on base percentage is 85 percent, which is about 12 percent higher than his career rate.
There is no doubt in my mind that Santana’s performance is bound to regress, so now would be the optimal time to sell.
Featured Image by MLB.com
“From Our Haus to Yours”