Fantasy Baseball Sell High Targets

Fantasy baseball 2017: Sell high targets

In fantasy baseball, it’s important to take advantage of selling high on players, rather than riding out their hot streaks until their value begins to fall. In the past, we have seen players like Joc Pederson be nearly untradeable after hitting 20 bombs in the first half of his rookie season, although his value dropped immensely after his batting average and home run totals plummeted in the second half.

On Saturday, I listed some players that you should buy low on in trade talks. Today, we’ll talk about who to ship away.

The following players may be having incredible seasons, but their values are clearly at their peak, making them perfect sell high targets.

Aaron Judge, Outfielder, New York Yankees

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Sell High Targets

It is time to sell high on Judge’s immense value. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

Judge has become one of the premier power hitters in the MLB, although now is the time to cash in. He is currently batting .328 with 26 home runs and 64 RBIs. If you were to move him now, you could likely get yourself an ace caliber pitcher in return, possibly a Chris Sale, Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw.

The 25-year-old’s BABIP of .420, or batting average on balls in play, is extremely unsustainable and has dropped about .13 points in the last seven days. Also, his HR/FB rate is at an astronomical 42 percent, which is also clearly unsustainable.

His batting average will drop and his home run pace will slow down. If you want to take advantage of Judge’s exorbitant trade value, now is the time.

Editor’s note: You can find more information on why Aaron Judge is a player to sell in this in-depth article.

Gio Gonzalez, Starting Pitcher, Washington Nationals

Gonzalez is having arguably his best season since 2012 when he finished third in the National League Cy Young voting. He is currently sporting a 2.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and an 8.30 K/9.

Even with the recently found success, this is the prime time to sell high on the 31-year-old. His left on base percentage is an unsustainable 85 percent, whereas his career rate is 73 percent. Gonzalez’s BABIP also seems unsustainable, as his career mark sits at .296 and his current mark is .268. Finally, his FIP of 4.28 is considered below average and his xFIP of 4.38 is considered poor.

Gonzalez seems to be getting very lucky in a multitude of ways. I would sell high before he is once again considered simply a streamer.

Marcel Ozuna, Outfielder, Miami Marlins

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Sell High Targets

Marcell Ozuna is notoriously a poor second half player. (Courtesy of Getty Images)

Ozuna has begun to emerged as one of the league’s best power hitters. So far in 2017, he is batting .320 with 20 home runs and 53 RBIs.

His career BABIP is .323, although his current BABIP sits at .355, suggesting that his batting average is bound to regress. Also, his current isolated power, or ISO, is .260 and his HR/FB rate is 29 percent, which both seem unsustainable as his career ISO is .175 and career HR/FB rate is 14 percent.

All of the analytics point towards regression, but if you also look at Ozuna’s track record of being a very poor second half player, it will make it easy to move on from the 26-year-old slugger.

On the career, his first half stats are .285 with 59 home runs, whereas his second half batting average is .243 with only 20 home runs. Now would be the time to move Ozuna before he likely burns out.

Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins

Santana is blatantly a sell high candidate. He is currently 9-4 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 6.66 K/9.

His FIP of 4.81 and xFIP of 4.93 are considered poor and awful by fangraphs.com, showing that the fielders behind him have kept his ratios afloat. The 34-year-old’s BABIP of .190 is the lowest among qualified starters and is absolutely unsustainable. Also, his left on base percentage is 85 percent, which is about 12 percent higher than his career rate.

There is no doubt in my mind that Santana’s performance is bound to regress, so now would be the optimal time to sell.

 

Featured Image by MLB.com

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Injury Update

Crying Tiers of Joy: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Left Field Rankings

I will begin my outfield rankings with one of the more intriguing positions in 2017: left field. This position hasn’t been this deep since the early and mid 2000s when we witnessed Manny Ramirez, Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday and Ryan Braun dominate fantasy as perennial top ten picks.

Many left fielders, young and old, have begun to emerge and make the position much deeper than many people originally anticipated.

The top 30 left fielders have been grouped into five tiers, with the top and bottom player of each tier profiled below.

Honorable mentions include: Alex Gordon (KC), Brandon Drury (ARI), Roman Quinn (PHI), and Matt Holliday (NYY).

Exceptions include: Ian Desmond (COL), who will miss six to eight weeks, approximately 50 games, after undergoing hand surgery, and Yasmany Tomas (ARI), who may start on DL with an oblique injury, and currently no time table for return.  

Tier 1

2017 Fantasy Baseball Left Field Rankings

Kris Bryant headlined a World Series roster for the Cubs (Credit: Michael Zagaris/Getty Images).

  • Kris Bryant (CHC)  

Kris Bryant is the lone man in tier 1 of left fielders in 2017. He exploded onto the scene in 2015 to smash 26 home runs and drive in 99 RBIs. That was good enough to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.

Bryant continued to improve in 2016 with 39 home runs, 121 runs scored and 102 RBIs. That resulted in him winning the NL MVP award.

The 25-year-old is a career .284 hitter and has stolen 21 bases in two years. Bryant will be the first left fielder selected in 2017.

Tier 2

2017 Fantasy Baseball Left Field Rankings

Ryan Braun will look to continue his strong play in 2017. (Jeff Curry, US Presswire).

  • Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)
  • Ryan Braun (MIL)
  • Starling Marte (PIT)
  • Christian Yelich (MIA)

Yoenis Cespedes is once again an elite fantasy option in all formats heading into 2017. The three-time MVP candidate has been on pace for 100 RBIs per 162 games in four of his five MLB seasons.

The 31-year-old, who is batting .277 since 2014, remains an integral producer in the New York Mets lineup and is sure to be a top 25 overall hitter if healthy.

Christian Yelich had his first breakout year in 2016 with career highs of 21 home runs and 98 RBIs. The 25-year-old has a career .293 batting average and is averaging about 19 steals per 162 games.

Yelich is a perennial 20 home run and 20 steal candidate. He could be a menacing 30/30 threat for years to come should he continue to improve. The Marlins three hitter will be selected within the top 50 picks in 2017.

Tier 3

2017 Fantasy Baseball Left Field Rankings

Michael Brantley is poised for a bounce back in 2017. (Courtesy of TLA Worldwide)

  • Gregory Polanco (PIT)
  • Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
  • Justin Upton (DET)
  • Matt Kemp (ATL)
  • Khris Davis (OAK)
  • Michael Brantley (CLE)

Like Yelich, Gregory Polanco was another left fielder who broke out in 2016. The 24-year-old managed to reach career highs in home runs with 22 and RBIs with 86 in only 144 games.

Polanco has averaged 25 steals per 162 games, which shows his five-category potential. The 6-foot-5 230-pounder is also bound to increase his power numbers as he continues to grow into his frame. A 30/30 season isn’t out of the realm for Polanco, which warrants him as a top 60 pick in all formats.

Michael Brantley is arguably the most overlooked player in 2017. He is healthy and ready to bounce back. The 29-year-old has been battling a chronic shoulder injury since the end of 2015. He is now officially ready to go for opening day.

The third-place finisher in the AL MVP in 2014 will rejoin the most talented Cleveland Indians lineup since the late 1990s. With the emergence of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, and the addition of Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley should have no problem producing. He is currently being selected as the 140th player on ESPN according to fantasypros.com. I believe he is well worth a top 120 pick.

Tier 4

2017 Fantasy Baseball Left Field Rankings

Andrew Benintendi intends to take home the AL Rookie of the Year in 2017. (Photos via Getty Images)

  • Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
  • Jose Ramirez (CLE)
  • Willson Contreras (CHC)
  • Marcel Ozuna (MIA)
  • Carlos Gomez (TEX)
  • Adam Duval (CIN)
  • Ben Zobrist (CHC)
  • David Dahl (COL)
  • Nomar Mazara (TEX)

My selection for AL Rookie of the Year, Andrew Benintendi, has an uncertain potential. His MLB sample size is a mere 118 plate appearances. The former Golden Spikes award winner is a five-tool player who has batted .313, .312, and .295 in three seasons at five different levels, including the MLB.

The 22-year-old may begin the year at the bottom half of the order. However, he will find his way to the top in no time. Batting ahead or directly behind of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez will allow him to be an extremely productive player.

He is currently being selected as the 111th player on ESPN, and certainly warrants a pick this early.

Nomar Mazara has seen his draft stock fall as of late. Word of a possible platoon against lefties has concerned owners about his at bat totals in 2017. I’m a full believer in Mazara’s ability to be an everyday player in this league, He has continuously improved his batting average throughout his minor-league career.

The 21-year-old has shown he has the potential to be a .280 hitter with 20 or more home runs over a full season. If an injury or poor performance were to occur to his platoon partner, Mazara could take the everyday spot and run with it.

He is being selected as the 260th player on ESPN, which makes him a sleeper in the majority of leagues. I wouldn’t hesitate selecting him top 200, especially in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues.

Tier 5

2017 Fantasy Baseball Left Field Rankings

Corey Dickerson sheds 25 pounds in the offseason, is this a sign of good things to come? (Courtesy of Wikipedia.com)

  • Corey Dickerson (TB)
  • Jayson Werth (WSH)
  • Eric Thames (MIL)
  • Melky Cabrera (CWS)
  • Jorge Soler (KC)
  • Curtis Granderson (NYM)
  • Michael Saunders (PHI)
  • Rajai Davis (OAK)
  • Brett Gardner (NYY)
  • Jarrod Dyson (SEA)
  • Ender Enciarte (ATL)

People tend to forget about Corey Dickerson’s success in Colorado. He batted .312 and .304 in consecutive seasons. The 27-year-old has dropped 25 pounds in order to obtain the starting left field spot as opposed to being the designated hitter, which is where he spent the majority of his time in 2016.

Either way, Dickerson will be an everyday player for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2017 and is a threat for 30 home runs and solid RBI production. His current ADP on ESPN is 276, which is very low for someone with .300/80/30/80 potential.

Ender Inciarte has quietly been a career .292 hitter while averaging about 24 steals per 162 games. Inciarte will be the leadoff hitter once again for a young but talented Atlanta Braves lineup that commonly goes under the radar.

Although there is a lack of power, it isn’t out of his realm to sport a stat line of .300 100/10/50/20. The 25-year-old is currently being selected as the 196th player on ESPN, putting him just outside the top 50 outfielders, which I believe he is.

 

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