Bold predictions 2017 MLB season

Results of my ten bold predictions for the 2017 MLB season

On April 3, 2017, I published an article recording my ten bold predictions for the 2017 MLB season. With fantasy baseball playoffs rapidly approaching, it is a good time to look back and assess my projections from early April.

 

Jarrett Parker becomes the everyday left fielder for the San Francisco Giants, and finishes as a top-50 outfielder.

Bold predictions 2017 MLB season

Parker suffered a broken collarbone in mid-April and didn’t return to the big leagues until August 3rd. (Patrick Tehan/Bay Area News Group)

Well, tough prediction to start to the list. Parker suffered a broken collarbone in mid-April and didn’t return to the big leagues until August 3rd.

Currently the Giants have Brandon Belt, Michael Morse and Austin Slater on the disabled list, allowing Parker to fit in as their everyday left fielder. The 28-year-old has split time in the lineup between batting third and seventh. If he can continue to get at-bats in the three-hole, he will show why I predicted him to be a top-50 outfielder this season.

 

Lance Lynn will win 16 games and finish the season as a top 50 starting pitcher.

Lynn seems to be surpassing my high expectations, as he is currently ranked 15th among starting pitchers in ESPN standard formats. He is currently 10-6 with a 3.05 ERA.

The 30-year-old has eight quality starts in his last eight appearances, making him one of the most consistent and reliable pitchers of the second half.

The former first-round pick in 2008 has career lows in batting average against, or BAA, with .211, batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, with .232 and strikeouts per nine, or K/9, with 7.47.

All of these trends suggest that his luck may be running out, although he has yet to let up all season.

 

Newly acquired Seattle Mariner, Mitch Haniger, will finish the year as a top 25 outfielder.

Although he is far from being a top-25 outfielder, Haniger still has been impressive in 2017. In his first 21 games, Haniger batted .342 with four home runs, 20 runs scored and 16 RBIs. The 26-year-old strained his oblique muscle and missed all of May.

After returning, Haniger was clearly still affected by the oblique, as the former first round pick in 2012 batted a mere .176 in July. Haniger found himself on the disabled list once again in late July after being hit in the face by a 95-MPH Jacob deGrom fastball. Haniger has since returned to the lineup, where on August 19th he went two for four with a home run and four RBIs against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Haniger’s early success was enhanced by the fact that he was batting primarily second in the Mariners order. So, now batting mainly sixth or seventh, Haniger’s fantasy ceiling has dropped significantly. We cannot forget about how successful he was in April, as he will be an integral part to the Mariners success in the future, although his lack of a track record is a bit concerning.

 

Kendall Graveman will become the unquestioned ace of the Oakland Athletics staff, after finishing the season with a sub-4 ERA and over 140 strikeouts.

Bold predictions 2017 MLB season

Kendall Graveman began the season on an incredible tear, posting a 2.25 ERA and 16 strikeouts in his first 24 innings pitched. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Graveman has been another player plagued by injuries in 2017. He began the season on an incredible tear, posting a 2.25 ERA and 16 strikeouts in his first 24 innings pitched.

In the first half combined, he finished with a respectable 3.83 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 47 innings, and besides at-the-time Jesse Hahn, he was the Athletics most consistent and reliable arm. Unfortunately, Graveman was inflicted with a shoulder injury in mid-May which kept him out until early-August, making the 26-year-old completely irrelevant in the fantasy universe.

Next year promises to be bright for Graveman, who was formerly traded for Josh Donaldson, although his health problems are a major issue.

 

David Phelps will finish as a top 20 reliever in standard formats, and a top 10 in formats that include holds.

Phelps began the year as a part of the Miami Marlins, although he was subsequently traded to the Seattle Mariners in mid-July for three minor league prospects.

In the first half of the year, Phelps posted a fair 3.68 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 44 innings. So far in the second half, the 30-year-old has registered a 1.80 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 10 innings.

Since being moved to Seattle, Phelps has only let two earned runs in his seven appearances, both coming in the same game against the New York Mets.

Phelps is currently on the disabled list with right elbow inflammation, although he is expected to return sometime in late August according to MLB.com. When he returns, he will likely be used primarily in the 8th inning behind closer Edwin Diaz or possibly in the 7th behind set-up man Nick Vincent.

Either way, it is valid to roster him in leagues that count holds, especially due to his starting and relief pitcher eligibilities.

 

Yangervis Solarte hits 20 home runs for the first time in his professional career, and finishes as a top 100 hitter.  

Solarte missed nearly all of July as he was plagued by an oblique injury. He has batted primarily in the clean-up spot in the San Diego Padres order, giving him extra RBI and run scoring opportunities.

The 30-year-old has batted .268 and .269 respectively in each half of the year so far, so you can essentially pencil him in for a .270 average, especially as his BABIP is a career low .270.

Also, Solarte has seen a decline in his strikeout rate, as it has dropped from 14.2 percent in 2016 to 11.1 percent in 2017, which shows his progression from years past.

Over the course of a 162-game season, Solarte would be on pace for 23 home runs and 84 RBIs, which would comfortably make him a top-100 player. He has recently gained shortstop eligibility on top of his second and third base eligibilities, making him a very versatile fantasy asset.

 

Gerrit Cole will be a top-5 Cy Young candidate behind a sub-three ERA and 200 strike outs.

Bold predictions 2017 MLB season

Since the All-Star break, Gerrit Cole has recorded a 3.13 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 46 innings. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Cole hasn’t been the same since his 2015 campaign where he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young vote.

His first half was a mess, as he recorded a 4.43 ERA and 7.86 K/9 over 107.2 innings. Although since the All-Star break, Cole has recorded a 3.13 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 46 innings.

The former first overall pick in 2011 has had serious issues giving up home runs, as his home run to fly ball rate is an astronomical 16.8 percent.

His second half so far has given fantasy owners a new-found hope that Cole can return to his 2015 form, although clearly 2017 was not the year for his resurgence.

 

Christian Yelich will put together a 25 home run/25 stolen base campaign for the first time in his career.

Myself and many others anticipated Miami Marlins star to take the next step in 2017, although we were wrong.

In 2016, the former first round pick in 2010 batted .298 with 21 home runs and 98 RBIs. There was a general assumption that Yelich would continue to progress, although he is currently on a 162-game pace to bat only .277 with 18 home runs and 13 stolen bases.

The 25-year-old has a career BABIP of .356, although this season it sits at only .328, which suggests he is getting a bit unlucky.

Yelich continues to bat third for the mighty Marlins, which bodes well for his fantasy value moving forward. He still has a very promising future, although 2017 was clearly not his MVP caliber breakout season.

 

Clayton Kershaw has the best year of his career, winning the NL Cy Young and MVP behind a sub-2 ERA and 300 plus strike outs.

This one is simple, a back injury slowed down Kershaw from continuing his domination as greatest pitcher of his generation.

Before the injury, Kershaw had thrown 141.1 innings while recording a 15-2 record with a 2.04 ERA and 168 strikeouts. The 29-year-old was on pace for 260 plus strikeouts over 220 innings pitched, which would have only been the second time in which he reached this feat.

When healthy, he remains the most reliable and elite pitcher in fantasy baseball.

 

Andrew Benintendi will not only win the Rookie of the Year, but will also be a top 25 finalist in the MVP race.

If Aaron Judge didn’t exist, Benintendi would be the favorite to win American League Rookie of the Year. He is currently batting .276 with 17 home runs, 68 RBIs, 63 runs scored and 14 stolen bases over 113 games.

The seventh overall pick in 2015 has met his expectations head on, as he is on a 162-game pace to hit 24 home runs and 97 RBIs. He has decreased his strikeout rate from 21.2 percent to 16.6 percent, while also raising his walk rate a full two percent.

Benintendi is a lock to finish top three in AL ROY, while also having a strong possibility of finishing within the top-25 in AL MVP voting.

 

Featured image by MLB.com

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10 Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

Ten Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

Ten Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

Predictions in sports are commonly highly discussed topics, as they can make people look incredible smart or incredible stupid. With that said, here are 10 bold predictions for the 2017 MLB season. Although some of these predictions may be outlandish, all are real possibilities.

 

10 Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

Jarrett Parker will begin 2017 in a platoon role. (Courtesy of SFGate.com)

  • Jarrett Parker becomes the everyday left fielder for the San Francisco Giants, and finishes the year as a top 50 outfielder.

 

Jarrett Parker will begin the season in a platoon role batting against righties, with Mac Williamson hitting against lefties. Parker, who recorded 23 home runs and 20 steals at the AAA level in 2015, has a career slash line of .267/.371/494 through six seasons of professional ball. The former second-round pick in 2010 has shown an innate ability to walk, as he has a career walk rate of 11.7%, which is well above league average of 8%. Also, the 28-year-old has posted a career ISO of .227, which is once again well above the league average of .140.

Parker will have an immediate opportunity to earn the full time left fielder job, as platoon mate Williamson is currently “battling an injured quad and is likely to miss at least two weeks”, according to Baseball-Reference.com. If Parker does not earn the full-time job within this two-week period, he is sure to outplay his counter-part Williamson, who batted .136 at AT&T Park last season. Parker in an everyday role is more than capable of being a 20/20 player, as he has shown pop at all levels, and will be batting at the bottom half of a Giants lineup that that finished 13th in steal attempts out of all 30 MLB teams in 2016.

 

  • Lance Lynn will win 16 games and finish the season as a top 50 starting pitcher.

 

Lynn missed the entire 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He spent over 12 months rehabbing, and has officially re-earned his spot in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, slotting in behind Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright as their third starter. The 29-year-old has a career 3.37 ERA and 8.71 K/9, giving him a great ceiling. If he can return anywhere close to this, he will have great fantasy value.

The Cardinal’s, who finished fourth in runs scored in 2016, have added lead off specialist Dexter Fowler, improving their already elite offensive. This increases Lynn’s value, who himself is off to a great spring, pitching a total of 15 innings, resulting in a 1.20 ERA and a .93 WHIP. The Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, and if they want to make it back in 2017, Lynn will have to be a major factor.

10 Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

Mitch Haniger may be sleeper of the year. (Courtesy of Minor League Ball)

  • Newly acquired Seattle Mariner, Mitch Haniger, will finish the year as a top 25 outfielder.

 

Former Arizona Diamondback, Mitch Haniger, was sent to Seattle, along with teammate Jean Segura, in a trade for Taijuan Walker in 2016. Haniger had an electric spring training, slashing .406/.472/.719 in 32 at bats. This has earned him the everyday right fielder position against American League foes, as well as the starting left field position during interleague play.

The 26-year-old’s combination of power and speed makes him a threat to be a serious producer atop one of the most talented lineups in the league, as the Mariners finished as the sixth best scoring offense in 2016. Mariner’s Manager Scott Servais has stated that Haniger “has the green light” on the base paths, giving him the opportunity to steal plenty of bases in 2017. Haniger will begin the year batting second for the Mariners, giving him a great chance to score over 100 runs. Becoming a top 25 outfielder is easily within reach for Haniger.

 

  • Kendall Graveman will become the unquestioned ace of the Oakland Athletics staff, after finishing the season with a sub-4 ERA and over 140 strikeouts.

 

Kendall Graveman will be the Oakland Athletics opening day starter in 2017. He is an elite ground ball pitcher, as he has a career groundball rate of 51.5%, (league average is 44%), along with a fly ball rate of 27.6%, (the league average is 35%), showing that Gravemen can be a very effective pitcher at the major-league level.

Unfortunately, the Athletics have the worst fielding percentage in the MLB, although it should not hold Graveman back from emerging as the work horse of this Athletics rotation, as he is the only healthy pitcher on the roster that has logged over 180 innings in a season.

10 Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

David Phelps will assume “an Andrew Miller-like role” according to manager Don Mattingley. (Courtesy of MLB.com)

  • David Phelps will finish as a top 20 reliever in standard formats, and a top 10 in formats that include holds.

 

Phelps is one of many starters turned relievers whom find themselves in prime position to pick up holds. The 30-year-old pitched 86.2 innings in 2016, finishing the year with a 2.28 ERA, 25 holds, and 114 strikeouts. Miami Marlins manager, Don Mattingley, stated that he believes “Phelps can serve in an Andrew Miller-like role”, which suggests that he will be pitching in the seventh, eighth, and occasionally ninth innings, giving him the chance to improve upon his career high holds total.

The Marlins bullpen appears to be stable, with A.J. Ramos manning the ninth, and Kyle Barraclough and Phelps serving as his bridge. If the Marlins can find success in 2017, Phelps is sure to be a beneficiary in the holds and saves categories on top of his respectable career 8.28 K/9.

 

  • Yangervis Solarte hits 20 home runs for the first time in his professional career, and finishes as a top 100 hitter.  

 

Yangervis Solarte has been creeping up fantasy draft boards all spring, but has remained my sleeper of the year. The 29-year-old is primed for a breakout season as he will have an everyday role for the first time in his career. He totaled 15 home runs and 71 RBIs in just 109 games last season, which would have put him on pace for 22 home runs and 105 RBIs over a 162-game span. The everyday third basemen will bat at the top half of the San Diego Padres order ahead of Wil Myers and company, which will positively impact Solarte’s run production.

10 Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

Gerrit Cole will return to Cy Young form in 2017. (Courtesy of warningtrackpower.com)

  • Gerrit Cole will be a top 5 cy young candidate behind a sub-three ERA and 200 strike outs.

 

Gerrit Cole finished as a top five Cy Young finisher and top twenty MVP candidate in 2015. He endured a tough 2016 campaign, where he only managed to start twenty-one games, resulting in a career worst ERA, WHIP, and K/9 due to a lingering rib injury.

Cole is only one year removed from having 19 wins and a 2.60 ERA, and with his injury officially gone by the way side, the twenty-six-year-old a great chance to return to form in 2017. I fully believe he will rejoin the Cy Young conversation once again.

 

  • Christian Yelich will put together a 25/25 campaign for the first time in his career.

 

Yelich had his first breakout year in 2016, reaching career highs of 21 home runs and 98 RBIs. The 25-year-old has a career .293 batting average and is averaging 19 steals per 162 games. He is a perennial 20 home run and 20 steal-candidate, as he has stolen over 20 bases three times in his professional career. The Miami Marlins three-hitter will be a candidate to win MVP as well as the batting title in 2017.

10 Bold Predictions for the 2017 MLB Season

Clayton Kershaw looks to return to Cy Young form in 2017 (Credit: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images).

  • Clayton Kershaw has the best year of his career, winning the NL Cy Young and MVP behind a sub-2 ERA and 300 plus strike outs.

 

Clayton Kershaw remains the golden standard of major league pitching. He has eight consecutive seasons with an ERA in the twos and a career K/9 of 9.8. If the 28-year-old retired today, he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Kershaw has endured some adversity over the last year as he has dealt with a serious back injury as well as a tough playoff loss in the NLCS. This extra motivation will keep Kershaw above all other pitchers in 2017.

 

  • Andrew Benintendi will not only win the Rookie of the Year, but will also be a top 25 finalist in the MVP race.

 

Andrew Benintendi, has an uncertain potential. His MLB sample size is a mere 118 plate appearances. The former Golden Spikes award winner is a five-tool player who has batted .313, .312, and .295 in three seasons at five different levels, including the MLB.

The 22-year-old will begin the year batting second, although may slide back to third if manager John Farrell feels like he needs to shake things up. Batting ahead of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez will allow him to become an extremely productive player. Benintendi has also put on 25 pounds of muscle this offseason, giving him some boosted power for the upcoming year. A .300 batting average, 25 home runs, 100 runs, and 20 steals isn’t out of the question for the rookie.

 

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