Robert Woods fantasy

Is Robert Woods a legit fantasy wide receiver?

The Rams’ offense has taken the entire league by storm this year. They went from the worst scoring offense to the best and haven’t looked back.

Last year under Jeff Fisher, this Rams team scored 224 points, the lowest in the NFL. Through nine games this season, the team has already scored 296 points. Led by Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, this offense has flourished. But the true story of this team is the players behind the scenes who have made some noise and helped this team.

In the last two games, Robert Woods has really stepped up with 12 receptions for 241 yards and four touchdowns. He went off for a huge 94-yard touchdown in his last game to really break the game open. In six out of the nine games this season, Woods has had at least four receptions for fifty yards. As of late, he’s starting to pick up in a big way.

Now fantasy owners are asking themselves, “Is Robert Woods a legit fantasy wide receiver?”

Upside on Robert Woods

As Jared Goff has picked up his play this season, it has affected his supporting cast in a great way. Woods has had a great season so far. He has accumulated 39 receptions for 622 yards and four touchdowns in nine games. He already has more yards and touchdowns than he did with the Bills last season.

Over the last two games, he’s scored all four of his touchdowns and has evolved into one of Goff’s top targets. The volume is there for Woods as he has received at least seven targets in four of his last five games. With this volume, he has shown his production and made the most of his opportunity. With double-digit fantasy points in his last two games, each coming with two touchdowns, Woods is trending in the right direction. 

Question Marks for Woods

Now it is true that Woods’ only four touchdowns have come in the last two weeks, which is something to consider about his fantasy production. He produces well on a PPR scale, but for standard league owners, he may only be good if he can find the end zone.

Robert Woods fantasy

Photo from http://www.trbimg.com

Woods is good for at least five fantasy points every week for the rest of the season, but if you’re looking for him to continue his hot streak, he’s going to have to find the end zone. It should also be noted that his latest game of eight receptions for 171 yards and two scores came against a pretty good Houston secondary.

 

In his next three games, Woods goes up against Minnesota, New Orleans and Arizona, three defenses that may give him problems. Even going up against these stout defenses, Woods should be given ample opportunities to continue to produce at a high level for the Rams and fantasy owners.

From here on out, Woods should be considered a solid WR2 or a flex play. However, depending on the matchup, you may need to bench him at times.

 

Feature image from USA Today Sports

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first-year NFL head coaches

Checking in on the first-year NFL head coaches

We are far enough into the NFL season that it is now fair to evaluate how all the head coaches are doing. While there are 32, the coaches who took new jobs prior to this season are always of particular interest. So, let’s see who is making the grade.

Sean McVay

What the former Redskins offensive coordinator has done defies logic and description. At the time of his hiring, he was the youngest head coach in league history. Also, he took over a mess.

The Rams were the worst scoring offense in the league in 2016 and limped to a 4-12 mark in their first year back in Los Angeles. Much of the offensive personnel has remained the same under McVay, including second-year quarterback Jared Goff, who was totally overwhelmed as a rookie.

The Rams are now the top scoring offense in the NFL and sit atop the NFC West. It is impossible to be sure whether McVay is brilliant or his predecessor Jeff Fisher was grossly incompetent. The answer is likely a little bit of both. The Rams defense was pretty good all along.

There is a lot of football left to be played, and it is hard to imagine any team averaging 32.9 points per game for an entire season. That puts you in the conversation with some of the greatest offenses ever.

For now though, McVay is the runaway winner for coach of the year. Turnarounds like this simply do not happen this quickly in pro football.

Grade: A+

Vance Joseph

When Gary Kubiak stepped down due to health concerns after the 2016 season, the former Dolphins defensive coordinator took over an organization that won a Super Bowl less than two years ago.

first-year NFL head coaches

(Photo from Denver Post)

However, the Broncos have regressed under Joseph. Trevor Siemian was at least serviceable last year. That cannot be said of Siemian or any other Broncos quarterback this year. Despite the team being very good for most of his tenure, John Elway has had to hire three head coaches during his relatively short time in the Denver front office.

With a workable schedule down the stretch, Joseph could still salvage the season if he can lead an upset over the Patriots Sunday night, but that is unlikely at best.

No individual is responsible for anything in the NFL. Even so, with the Broncos among the league leaders in penalties and turnovers and on a four-game losing streak, it is starting to look like Elway will be finding another head coach sooner than he would like.

Grade: D+

Anthony Lynn

The former Bills offensive coordinator took over a franchise that was relocating to a city where it has virtually no fan base. That is an unenviable position for any coach to be in.

However, Lynn did inherit Philip Rivers as his quarterback. This is something even some established coaches in this league would kill for. Early in the season, the seemingly never-ending trend of the Chargers finding ways to lose close games continued.

Lynn’s team showed some impressive toughness by winning three in a row after an 0-4 start. The defense is also much improved thanks mostly to the hiring of former Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator.

3-5 is not where any coach wants to be through eight games. All things considered though, Lynn has done an okay job. Remember, this is also a team that is essentially playing 16 road games this year and potentially beyond.

Grade: C+

Sean McDermott

This is the toughest one for me. The former Panthers defensive coordinator has the Bills in the mix to end a 17-year playoff drought. The best thing this team has going for it is a defense that is allowing less than 19 points per game.

Getting blown out by the Jets on Thursday night in Week 9 was a big blow. They still have to play division rival New England twice, as well as New Orleans and Kansas City. They will be underdogs in every one of those games.

McDermott would not be the first Bills coach as of late to lead Buffalo to a hot start only to fade late in the season. He has done well to this point, but his job is about to get a lot tougher.

Grade: B-

Kyle Shanahan

The mastermind behind last year’s electric Falcons offense is still searching for his first win as a head coach in San Francisco. Shanahan is well aware that he is bringing the less talented roster into almost every game this season.

Despite that, the 49ers are playing hard and have been in almost every game. The best thing the young head coach has done is oversee or possibly facilitate the acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo from New England before the trade deadline.

Shanahan is certainly taking his lumps as a first-time head coach this year, but if Garoppolo turns out to be the star that many people believe he will be, the wins are not far behind.

Grade: C+

 

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Stack your money Sundays: Week 10

Week 9 Review (1-1-1) Overall: 16-9-2

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ New York Giants

Los Angeles Rams 51 New York Giants 17

What a romping. Once New York gave up a 52-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-33, this game was over. The Rams continue to run the ball with ease, and had their second game of the season in which they did not turn the ball over. Jared Goff threw for over 300 yards, his first time eclipsing 300 passing yards since week one. This was also Goff’s first career four-touchdown game. Los Angeles’ offensive line continues to dominate, as they did not allow a sack.

Not sure if this game was more about the Rams dominance or the Giants struggling. Ben McAdoo might lose his job, and Eli Manning will most likely be gone after next season. If the Giants continue their poor play, they will be in line for a top pick in next year’s draft, in which they could draft a future quarterback. No offense to Davis Webb, but I don’t see him as the future of this team.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers 20 Atlanta Falcons 17

This is now two weeks in a row in which the Falcons have failed us. Atlanta is suffering from a serious Super Bowl hangover. A team that finished fifth in rushing yards a season ago, ran for a grand total of 53 yards against Carolina. The Falcons offense struggled on third down, and were unable to convert on all three of their fourth down conversion attempts.

MJ or Cam Newton? (SB Nation)

Cam Newton had a beautiful rushing touchdown in which he pulled off his inner MJ and dunked the ball as he crossed the goal line. However, this win was more about Carolina’s defense. They completely shut down the run, and now have the number one ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. They are allowing the fourth fewest points, second fewest rushing yards and sixth fewest passing yards. In other words, Carolina’s defense is elite.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens

Tennessee Titans 20 Baltimore Ravens 17

Our second push of the season. It really looked like the Titans had the cover in the bag until they gave up a last-minute touchdown, which cut their lead down to three. Going into this game, the Ravens were allowing over 130 yards on the ground, and all of a sudden, they limited the Titans, a powerful run team, to only 71 yards. Just shows how hard it is to predict some of these teams.

Solid win for Tennessee, as they move to 5-3 and are tied for first place in the AFC South. If they want to make some noise, the Titans defense needs to defend the pass better, and Mariota needs to step up his play.

WEEK 10 PICKS

Time to get back on track!

Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Washington Redskins

PICK: VIKINGS TO COVER

WHY THE VIKINGS WILL SUCCEED

Case Keenum, average but efficient (Houston Chronicle)

  • Coming off a bye, extra week to prepare
  • Sixth in the league in third down conversions
  • Defense is legit: third fewest points per game allowed, fourth fewest yards, second fewest yards per play, second in opposing third down conversion percentage.
  • Allowing the fewest touchdowns per game, also rank third in opposing red zone scoring percentage on drives ending in a touchdown
  • Defend the run well, third fewest rushing yards allowed per game
  • Offense is efficient, seventh in completion percentage, fourth fewest turnovers.
  • Kai Forbath: 21/22 on FGA

WHY THE REDSKINS WILL STRUGGLE

  • 24th in opponent points per game
  • 19th in opposing third down conversions
  • Allow 4.2 yards per carry on the ground
  • Allow 6.7 yards per pass (20th in the NFL)

 

New England Patriots (-7.5) @ Denver Broncos

PICK: PATRIOTS TO COVER

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL SUCCEED

  • Extra week to prepare because of bye
  • 12-5 under Belichick in game after a bye (Outscoring opponents 436-285 in those games)
  • seventh in points per game
  • third in the league in third down conversions
  • third in the league in yards per pass
  • fifth in completion percentage
  • Second fewest turnovers in the NFL

WHY THE BRONCOS WILL STRUGGLE

  • They don’t have a QB
  • Defense is 25th in points allowed per game
  • 22nd in points per game, 27th in completion percentage
  • 25th in yards
  • Second most turnovers in the league

 

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

PICK: BUCCANEERS TO COVER

WHY THE BUCCANEERS WILL SUCCEED

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has higher completion percentage, and higher QBR than Jameis Winston.
  • Tampa Bay ranks eighth in yards per play
  • second in passing yards per game
  • third fewest penalty yards per game

WHY THE JETS WILL STRUGGLE

  • 22nd in opponent yards per play
  • 24th in opponents yards per game
  • 30th in opponent touchdowns per game
  • 22nd in yards per game
  • Second most penalty yards per game

 

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Week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Report card

Week 9 was the first time all season I cashed when the week number was a multiple of 3. I know, why would anyone keep track of that? Well, when you lose badly on Week 3 and 6, you are highly aware of Week 9, 12, 15 moving forward.

Anyways, it was my best week of the year in terms of profit and picks. We nailed almost everything on the Suck My DFS Podcast and our picks for the Week 9 DFS don’ts.

Quarterback: 4/6

On our podcast, my three quarterbacks to build around were Russell Wilson, Alex Smith and Jared Goff. Now, I ended up not playing Alex Smith on my cash games and taking my co-host’s advice on Jacoby Brissett in my tournaments. I missed out on a great game from Goff, but still managed to have a good day as all three of these quarterbacks made value in cash games and probably helped you win a tournament.

On the other hand, Matt Ryan and Marcus Mariota managed to have good games and prove me wrong. However, Brock Osweiler was not good. It might seem cheap, but I saw tournament lineups on FanDuel with Osweiler so I’m counting it as a win.

Running Back: 4/6

I was struggling to predict the running back position all season. But finally, in the running back edition of Week 9 DFS don’ts, I came through. Devonta Freeman, C.J. Anderson and Alex Collins all failed to make value in a cash game, and I couldn’t be happier.

Conversely, Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey were great. Gurley was a staple in my tournament lineups.

Sadly, I whiffed on Mark Ingram while my co-host nailed it with Alvin Kamara. Thankfully, Gurley carried my lineups to victory.

Wide Receiver: 4/6

Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald all failed to make value. I’m not counting Jamison Crowder. He ended up not being active, so I won’t count that as a win or a loss.

Thank goodness for that Tyreek Hill play at the end of the first half! I haven’t sweated a game harder all year. While that play was great, Hill came up just short of doubling his value for cash purposes, so that’s a loss.

I don’t know if you heard, but T.Y. Hilton had a decent game, right? His price was too attractive this week and forced me to play him on all my tournament lineups. Russell Shepard ended up being a dud, but not a bad week as a whole though.

Tight End: 3/5

For my Week 9 DFS don’ts at the tight end position, I named Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham and Ryan Griffin. Kelce had a great game and finished as the second highest scoring tight end on Sunday. Graham and Griffin both came up short.

On the podcast, I liked Evan Engram and Vernon Davis. Like Tyreek Hill, Davis came up less than a point short of making value in a cash game. I sadly played Jack Doyle instead of Engram. I couldn’t find a way to fit him in at that price despite really liking him.

Kicker: 1/3

This was my worst call of the season at this position. I totally missed on Brandon McManus, but I wasn’t going anywhere near that Denver offense. Mike Nugent came up very small, but he wasn’t needed. Cody Parkey didn’t make value, so that’s my only win at this position.

Defense: 2/3

Jacksonville was the chalk this past weekend, and I was happy to swallow it on all my lineups. Cincinnati wasn’t able to get it done against a running game without Leonard Fournette. And, if not for a touchdown, Houston’s defense would have failed to make value as well.

Overall Score: 18/29

I don’t know if I’ll have a week this good again, but I’ll take 62 percent correct. Hopefully Week 10 will be as good. Check out our latest piece on which kicker(s) and defense(s) to keep off your DFS lineups.

 

Featured image from Grizzly Bear Blues

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Fantasy Football Week 9 winners

Top five fantasy stars of Week 9

Week 9 of the NFL season has come and gone. As we have passed the halfway point of the season, we had some big fantasy performances this week. If you had these players (or if you got lucky) you feel pretty good about your team this week. Here are the top five fantasy stars of Week 9.

Carson Wentz, Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz had a day against the Denver Broncos, throwing four touchdowns in a 51-23 blowout.

Fantasy Football Week 9 winners

Carson Wentz (Photo from grandforksherald.com)

The Broncos defense hasn’t allowed 18 or more fantasy points to any quarterback in their first seven games of the season. However, Wentz steamrolled one of the top defenses in the league.

For Wentz, it’s all about consistency, and we have seen that in his last five games. He has tossed 17 touchdowns and just three picks in the last five.

In seven of the nine games he has played, he has been a top eight quarterback. His elusiveness as a passer and a runner has made him a high-end QB1 with his consistent play.

Wentz now has a league-leading 23 touchdown passes and is continuing to have what looks like an MVP season. After a bye in Week 10, he will face the Dallas Cowboys the following week.

I expect him to have another good day with Dallas’ defense being in the lower tier against the quarterback this season.

T.Y. Hilton, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts

Many of us had given up hope on Indianapolis Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton, but he finally broke through. It looks as if there is some chemistry developing between him and his quarterback Jacoby Brissett as well.

Fantasy Football Week 9 winners

T.Y. Hilton (Photo from tvasports.ca)

Hilton has been struggling all season, with some of it being due to not having his quarterback Andrew Luck. For the first eight weeks, he only averaged 66 yards and had only one touchdown.

But he was a beast on Sunday with 175 yards and two touchdowns, with one being 45 yards and the other was a 80-yard score. His 34 points in PPR and 29 in non-PPR gives some life to fantasy owners as there seems to have been a jumpstart in the Colts offense at least throwing the ball. Hilton has a trio of long touchdowns, but other than that, he has been kept out of the end zone.

It’s encouraging to see Hilton finally have a good game, but he will continue to be a boom or bust player for the rest of the season.

Quarterback Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

The first two quarterbacks picked last season had stellar performances. Jared Goff had a similar day to Wentz as he torched the New York Giants defense.

Goff had a career day, throwing for 311 yards and four touchdowns while completing 14 of his 22 passes in a 51-17 blowout. The highest scoring offense has continued its dominance, and part of it is Goff playing well.

This is a guy that started his career with an 0-7 record as starter heading into 2017 with a 63.6 passer rating. Now he looks like the first overall pick the Rams were hoping for.

He has now scored at least 16 points five times in the last eight games, including 28 on Sunday. Goff averaged an outstanding 14.1 yards per attempt thanks to a pair of long touchdown passes, one a 52-yard strike to Robert Woods on a third and 33 and then a 67-yard deep ball to Sammy Watkins just over two minutes later. It’s just one of those feel-good stories when it comes to Goff.

Goff has gained some attention across fantasy as he was the 13th most started quarterback according to ESPN. He will continue his good play against a struggling Houston Texans defense.

Running back Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

What a season rookie Alvin Kamara is having, both as a runner and a pass catcher. Even though this is his eighth game, he had a career day in fantasy with 25 points and 31 points in PPR.

Fantasy Football Week 9 winners

Alvin Kamara (Photo from buffalonews.com)

The Saints back contributed 152 total yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kamara rushed 10 times for 68 yards and a touchdown and hauled in six of seven targets for 84 yards and another score.

The versatile rookie made his presence felt again, leading the Saints in receiving yardage while posting his best reception total since Week 4. He also posted his second straight week scoring a rushing touchdown for the first time in his career. Kamara also for the first time scored a receiving and a rushing score in the same game. The Saints seem to have found their pairing with Kamara and Mark Ingram.

He continues to be one the best pass catching backs in the league as he and rookie Christian McCaffrey are the only backs with at least three receptions in every game this season. They play the Bills next week and could have a solid day as a pass catcher.

TIght End Evan Engram, New York Giants

While the Giants struggled, Evan Engram had a solid day against the Rams. Engram had four catches for 70 yards and a score.

This may not seem like a star to most, but Engram has been lights out the last three games, scoring over 15 in three straight. He has established himself as the first target in a struggling Giant offense. He led the team in targets and tied for the most yards. Engram found the end zone in the fourth on a 10-yard pass from Eli Manning. He has posted at least 60 receiving yards in four of his last five games while reaching the end zone in each of his last three.

Engram has had a solid season even with the Giants woes on offense and should be considered a viable TE1 option. Expect Engram to have another solid outing next week against the winless San Francisco 49ers.

 

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NFL Week 9

Stack your money Sunday’s: Week 9

Teams against the spread through Week 8

Buffalo 5-1-1

Kansas City 6-2

Philadelphia 6-2

NY Jets 5-2-1

Houston 5-2

New Orleans 5-2

Houston 5-2

Chicago 5-3

Minnesota 5-3

Pittsburgh 5-3

Jacksonville 4-3

Dallas 4-3

LA Rams 4-3

Indianapolis 4-4

San Francisco 4-4

Miami 3-3-1

Carolina 4-4

New England 4-4

Baltimore 4-4

NY Giants 3-4

Seattle 3-4

Cincinnati 3-4

LA Chargers 3-4-1

Green Bay 3-4

Tennessee 3-4

Detroit 3-4

Oakland 3-5

Denver 2-4-1

Atlanta 2-5

Washington 2-5

Cleveland 2-6

Tampa Bay 1-5-1

Arizona 1-6

 

Week 8 Review (1-2) Overall: 15-8-1

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Detroit Lions 15

NFL Week 9

The Steelers sit atop the AFC. (Photo from FanRag Sports)

JuJu on that beat! With Martavis Bryant suspended, Smith-Schuster, the wideout from USC, had seven receptions for 193 yards, including a 97-yard touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger during the third quarter. Pittsburgh’s defense was phenomenal, forcing two turnovers and not allowing Detroit to score a touchdown.

It appeared the Lions still had a shot when they were down one in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, Matt Stafford was sacked on fourth down. On third and fourth down, the Lions were a combined 2-14. The turnover on downs led to the big JuJu touchdown.

Matt Prater did not disappoint fantasy teams, as he knocked in a total of five field goals.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ New York Jets

Atlanta Falcons 25 New York Jets 20

Two points away from covering. Close but no cigar. The Jets looked like they were going to pull off the upset heading into halftime with a 17-13 lead.

A Matt Bryant field goal and a Mohamed Sanu touchdown put the Falcons ahead with less than 13 minutes to play. The Jets were unable to score a touchdown in the second half, and Atlanta squeaked out a close one.

The Falcons, who have an average run defense, shutdown New York, allowing only 43 yards on 22 carries. They also limited the Jets to a mere 15 first downs, which is tied for their best performance of the year.

Atlanta looks to continue their success this week, going on the road to face Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.

Oakland Raiders (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills 34 Oakland Raiders 14

The Raiders are truly the most unpredictable team in the league. They went into this game following an emotional win over Kansas City, and appeared to be the better team. That was until the game actually started. Oakland turned the ball over not once, twice, or even three times, but four times, including a pair of interceptions by Derek Carr. They have now lost five games, which is already more than last season.

Give credit to the Bills, who look like a legitimate playoff team, even though they just got smacked by the Jets. Tyrod Taylor continues to not turn the ball over, and LeSean McCoy is playing like vintage Shady McCoy. McCoy had a 48-yard touchdown run and added a little spice, holding the ball out from 10 yards out to taunt the pitiful Oakland defense.

At this point, I think it is safe to say the Bills are more likely to play in the playoffs than the Raiders.

WEEK 9 PICKS

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ New York Giants

PICK: RAMS TO COVER

The Rams are coming off a bye, which means they had an extra week to prepare for this one-win Giants team. Quite frankly, the Rams are just the better team. They are second in scoring, sixth in yards per play and eighth in first downs. Their defense also ranks ninth against the pass.

On the other hand, the Giants, on both sides of the ball, have been a mess. New York ranks 24th in yards per play on both offense and defense. Eli Manning has his team at 29th in plays per drive and last in first downs. Their defense ranks 23rd in rushing yards allowed, which is not great considering the Rams are the sixth best rushing team, largely due to Todd Gurley.

New York just isn’t scoring, as they rank 29th in percentage of offensive drives ending in a score. The Rams rank third in that department, which is clearly a major difference.

This game could end up in a double-digit victory for the Rams. The Giants cannot run the football, so if Eli struggles, watch out.

Also, the Rams love to score right off the bat, ranking fourth in first quarter points per game. On the flip side, the Giants are 31st. As for third down conversions, the Rams are first in the league, while New York ranks 29th.

Numbers don’t tell the whole story, but I think it’s clear that the Giants are not very good at the moment. Keep in mind Janoris Jenkins will not be playing this week either.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Carolina Panthers

PICK: FALCONS TO COVER

Not only did Cam Newton lose his best friend on the team, Kelvin Benjamin, but he lost his best receiver. Newton has publicly expressed that he is not a fan of the move, so expect a shaky start for the former MVP.

Carolina has lost two out of their last three games, and currently rank 23rd in points. Newton is not playing like an MVP, as he already has 11 interceptions.

Although it is somewhat of a disappointing start for Atlanta, they are still very solid. Their offense ranks fifth in yards, fourth in yards per rushing attempt, and fifth in first downs. Atlanta has the 11th ranked defense, which is the second best defense the Panthers have seen this year. The Falcons also rank second in yards per drive, while Carolina is 20th.

Matt Ryan has been somewhat average and has thrown more interceptions than usual. Luckily, the Panthers do not force many turnovers, as they rank 27th in that department.

If it comes down to the wire, Carolina is 27th in fourth quarter points per game, which cannot be trusted. Take the Falcons on the road.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (-3)

PICK: TITANS TO COVER

NFL Week 9

Expect big numbers from the Titans’ backfield. (Photo from Titans Online)

Like the Rams, the Titans are also coming off of a bye week. They sit atop the AFC South, tied with the Jags for a share of first place, so a home game like this is a must win.

When the Titans rush the ball for over 100 yards, they are 3-0. Baltimore ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, letting up almost 133 yards per contest.

As long as the Titans stick to the run, they will be fine. Even after the Ravens 40-0 win over Miami, they still rank dead last in passing yards, and second to last in overall yards. Their running game has been decent, but Tennessee defends the run well, and sits fifth in opponent rushing yards per attempt.

Expect Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry to run wild, and for Joe Flacco to continue to look bad, especially after nearly being concussed a week ago.

 

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Stack your money Sunday’s: Week 7

Week six review (0-3) OVERALL: 12-6

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings 23 Green Bay Packers 10

A legal, but dirty, hit by Minnesota Vikings star Anthony Barr cost the Packers their season. In the first quarter, Aaron Rodgers went down and suffered a broken collarbone. Brett Hundley took over, and was an absolute disaster. The Packers were only down four at half, and still had a legitimate shot to win, but Hundley was just terrible. The UCLA standout finished with three interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 39.6.

This was just an ugly game, and totally unlucky for bettors. Both teams had trouble getting much going, as neither were able to score a touchdown in the second half. Credit to Minnesota’s defense, and with the Rodgers injury, the Vikings should be able to win the NFC North.

Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Los Angeles Rams 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

“Greg The Leg” has been vital for the Rams (LA Times)

This was another rather unlucky game. Had I known the Jags would be a total disaster on special teams, I would have avoided this matchup.

On the opening kickoff, Rams return man Pharoh Cooper took it the house on a 103-yard touchdown return. In the second quarter, Los Angeles blocked a Jaguars punt and returned it for a score.

The Jaguars defense remained elite, only allowing one touchdown to the opposition. Blake Bortles played alright, and Leonard Fournette, who got injured in the game, tore up the Rams defense. Fournette ran for 130 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown in response to Cooper’s kickoff return. Rams special teams won them this game, and we haven’t even mentioned Greg Zuerlein, who hit two field goals, including one from 56 yards out.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (-3)

Los Angeles Chargers 17 Oakland Raiders 16

While Derek Carr looked amazing against the Chiefs in their Thursday night win, last Sunday was a totally different story. Carr, who was most likely playing injured, threw a pair of interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 67.5. The Raiders just couldn’t move the football, with a total of only 274 yards.

Philip Rivers deserves some love, as he led the Chargers down the field, setting up a Nick Novak game-winner as time expired. Solid win for Los Angeles, but at 2-4, it’s going be tough to climb into playoff contention.

WEEK 7 PICKS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills (-3)

PICK: BILLS TO COVER

The Bills are a lot better than people think, and Jameis Winston is not as good as we thought he would be. Winston is questionable, but is expected to start. Winston looked bad against the Patriots, and terrible against the Vikings. This is a Buffalo defense who has allowed the fewest points in all of the NFL, and should have no problem shutting down Winston.

Expect a big game from LeSean McCoy (SportingNews)

Buffalo has allowed fewer passing touchdowns than any team in the league, and currently rank seventh in fewest rushing yards allowed.  The Bills are only allowing 85 yards per game on the ground. In the 12 previous games in which the Bucs rushed for 85 yards or less, they went 3-9. Tampa Bay is a pass heavy team, and Buffalo is second In the NFL in interceptions.

The Buccaneers defense is quite abysmal. They currently rank 30th in total yards allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed. They have the fewest sacks in the league, and if you can’t get to Tyrod Taylor, he will make you pay with his feet.

The Bucs are also allowing the fourth highest quarterback rating to opposing quarterbacks. They aren’t any prettier in the red zone, allowing the second most red zone opportunities for opposing teams.

Tyrod will not put up huge numbers, but he rarely turns the ball over, and has kept Buffalo in every game. The last time LeSean McCoy played the Bucs, he ran for 116 yards, so expect big things from Shady.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

PICK: RAMS TO COVER

As weird as this may sound, the Rams are legit. They are still first in the league in scoring, and fourth in the league in third down percentage. Arizona’s defense currently ranks 28th in points allowed, and 30th in points allowed per red zone trip.

Carson Palmer is washed up, and has been getting absolutely demolished this season. He has already thrown six interceptions, and has been a sacked a grand total of 21 times. Because of this, Arizona is 24th in points per drive. They almost blew a huge lead to Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think that says enough.

Although Adrian Peterson had a nice game last week, I don’t see it happening again. On the flip side, Todd Gurley is averaging over four yards per carry in his career versus the Cardinals. The Rams defend the pass well, and are first in the league in field goals per drive, all thanks to the best kicker in the league, Greg Zuerlein. Look for the Rams to continue their early success.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-3.5)

PICK: PATRIOTS TO COVER

The Super Bowl rematch preview is a lot different than we expected. The Patriots defense is a disaster, and Matt Ryan is back to being his average self. He has thrown six interceptions and his Falcons are a totally different team than last season. They have already lost to the Bills and the Dolphins.

It should also be noted that they were literally inches away from losing to the Lions, and an end zone drop away from losing to the Bears. Atlanta’s defense has caused the fewest turnovers in the league, and cannot get off the field. They currently rank 31st in average time per opposing drive.

Matt Ryan has never beaten the Patriots, but this should be a shootout. Expect New England’s defense to look a little better, and for the Pats to win by at least seven.

 

Featured image by Bleacher Report

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Stack your money Sunday’s: Week 6

WEEK FIVE REVIEW (3-0) OVERALL: 12-3

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Oakland Raiders

Baltimore Ravens 30 Oakland Raiders 17

I’ll never understand E.J. Manuel being favored in an NFL football game, but anyways, this game was rather predictable. Ravens had no problem scoring early against a weak Raiders defense, as Baltimore scored 24 of their 30 points in the first half. Manuel did not turn the ball over, but only managed to throw for 159 yards, and completed half of his passes.

On the other hand, Joe Flacco was rather efficient, and let the running backs control most of the offense. Justin Tucker had a perfect day, notching three field goals, and went a perfect three for three on extra points. With this win, the Ravens are now tied with the Steelers for best record in the AFC North.

 

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams

Seattle Seahawks 16 Los Angeles Rams 10

The Rams were a Cooper Kupp catch away from beating Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks. Luckily, had Kupp hauled in the last minute touchdown, the Seahawks still would have covered. Nonetheless, great win for Seattle, as they often struggle visiting the Rams.

The Seahawks defense came up big and made Jared Goff look like the rookie version of himself. Goff threw a pair of interceptions, and had a quarterback rating 48.9. He also had an abysmal completion percentage of 46.81.

Although Seattle now sits at a comfortable 3-2, the offense still has a lot of work to do. The Seahawks had a real hard time running the football against a weak Rams run defense, and Russell Wilson did not look great. The Rams had over 100 more total yards, so if it weren’t for their five turnovers, Seattle would have gotten blown out.

 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers 35 Dallas Cowboys 31

For a second, it looked like Dallas was going to win this one, but then I realized if you give Aaron Rodgers a minute and a timeout, you might as well quit. Rodgers was absolutely sensational, throwing three touchdowns, with a quarterback rating of 122.9. The sneakiest, elite performance was Aaron Jones. A rookie from UTEP, Jones rushed for 125 yards and scored his second touchdown in as many weeks.

The unsung hero of last week, Aaron Jones (Lombardi Ave)

Dallas had more first downs, total yards, third downs converted, and more time with the football than Green Bay, but it’s hard to beat Aaron Rodgers when you turn the ball over three times. Through five weeks, Dallas already has tied their loss total from last season. Not to mention they have Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension starting next game.

 

WEEK 6 PICKS

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

PICK: PACKERS TO COVER

As you can tell, this is now the second week in a row betting on the Packers, hence, Aaron Rodgers is really good and I would trust him with my life. Listen, the guy is 12-6 in his career vs. Minnesota, and has a quarterback rating north of 112. He’s completing 68% of his passes in these games and has 39 touchdowns.

The Vikings barely squeaked by against the Bears, who started a rookie quarterback for the first time, and are one of the most injured teams in the league. Last year, Minnesota ranked third in fewest passing yards allowed. Today, they are 20th. However, they do defend the run well, so it will be interesting to see if they will be able to slow down Aaron Jones, who looks to be the next Ahman Green.

The Packers are forcing a bunch of turnovers, and sit fifth in the league in that department. Their offense also stays on the field. Green Bay is 27th in three and outs, and also are arguably the most efficient team when it comes to scoring in the red zone. The Pack are first in the league in points per red zone trip, as well as first in touchdowns per red zone trip.

Sam Bradford will not play this Sunday, so this game could be over in a hurry. Minnesota is firth worst in touchdowns per drive, and are currently punting on 50 percent of their drives. Look for Aaron Rodgers to throw all over this team, and for Case Keenum to struggle moving the chains for Minnesota.

 

Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

PICK: JAGUARS TO COVER

Betting for the Jaguars to cover just sounds like a fun time. Honestly though, Jacksonville is one of the big surprises of the year. They are fifth in scoring and are first in rushing. The Jags defense is insanely elite. That sounds crazy, but they are one of four teams in NFL history with 20+ sacks, 10+ interceptions and 4+ defensive touchdowns through five games in a season. The Jaguars have allowed the second fewest points in the league, rank first in turnovers in created, first in interceptions, and third in fewest passing yards allowed. Jacksonville also allows the fewest points per drive.

We saw what Jared Goff looks like against a good defense last week, so expect more of the same this week. Also, the Rams are allowing the sixth most rushing yards, and the most rushing touchdowns in the league. Jacksonville loves to run the football, as we saw last week against the Steelers. Leonard Fournette and Chris Ivory combined for 222 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Bortles doesn’t look great, but the Jaguars are doing a wonderful job of masking his flaws. He is throwing less and they are winning more. In last week’s slaughtering off the Steelers, Bortles only threw a total of 14 passes. The Rams are 23rd in points allowed, and it is highly doubtful Jared Goff starts out 3-0 on the road. Have to believe in Post Marrone and the Jaguars squad to get another W.

 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (-3)

PICK: RAIDERS TO COVER

During our weekly podcast, the Raiders were a one-point favorite, and now that it is three, I am not even remotely worried. Derek Carr is playing, and his Raiders have won their last four matchups against the Chargers. The Raiders have lost three in a row, so this is essentially a must win. They cannot drop to 2-4 in a division with the Chiefs and Broncos.

Derek Carr and the Raiders look to remain hot against the Chargers (Raiders.com)

Because of Carr’s injury, Oakland will most likely run the ball a lot. This would make sense because the Chargers have allowed the most rushing yards in the league. They are literally allowing five yards per carry to opposing backs. LeGarrette Blount ran wild against them, so expect a big game from Marshawn Lynch.

With Carr healthy, this is a totally different team. Philip Rivers has already thrown five interceptions and their defense has not been great. Los Angeles is 25th in yards allowed per drive. They are allowing the fourth most points per drive and are the 31st rank defense in terms of time of possession per drive. The Chargers defense cannot get off the field, and will struggle mightily against Carr and the Raiders offense.

Featured image by Jacksonville.com

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Stack your Money Sunday’s: Week 5

Week Four Review (3-0) Overall: 9-3

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers 29 Baltimore Ravens 9

Like stated in the previous week, you can never rely too much on numbers. Big Ben was 2-7 in his career in Baltimore before this game. The Steelers were also coming off a loss to Mike Glennon and the Chicago Bears. All that did not matter.

In last week’s article, I stated that Le’Veon Bell was bound to have a big game. Bell rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns, while also hauling in four catches for 42 yards. We also expected Joe Flacco to struggle, as he had a quarterback rating of 64.6 and threw a pair of interceptions.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Cleveland Browns 7

Andy Dalton moves to 10-3 in his career against Cleveland, and was practically flawless in this blowout. Dalton threw four touchdowns, and had a quarterback rating of 146. The Bengals had more time of possession, first downs, third downs converted and total yards. Usually when this happens, you win the game.

A.J. Green continued his success against Cleveland, hauling in one touchdown on five catches. DeShone Kizer continued his poor play, and does not look like a starter in this league. Maybe it is because he is on the Browns, but not a great start to his professional career.

New York Giants (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 New York Giants 23

Good teams win, great teams cover (SNY)

The Giants really have yet to win a game, but at least they covered. Shoutout to Nick Folk. Not only was he terrible on Thursday against New England, but he also missed an extra point and two field goals in this one.

Unlike his performance against the Pats, Jameis Winston played well in this one. He threw three touchdowns and only took one sack. The Giants possessed the ball more, converted more third downs and had more first downs than Tampa Bay, but somehow found a way to lose. Only one team in NFL history, the 1992 Chargers, has made the playoffs after starting 0-4, so maybe there’s a chance?

WEEK 5 PICKS

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Oakland Raiders

PICK: RAVENS TO COVER

There is a super slim chance that Derek Carr suits up for Oakland, and Vegas still has the Raiders favored? You are telling me an E.J. Manuel led offense is favored in an NFL football game? This is absolutely insane. The Raiders are nothing without Carr.

Baltimore is coming off a tough home loss to Pittsburgh, so it’s hard to believe they would drop two straight, especially to a team starting a backup quarterback. Joe Flacco is struggling, but this guy won a Super Bowl. He may not be elite, but he has what it takes to cover in this situation. Flacco is 3-2 in his career vs Oakland.

As expected, Oakland’s defense has struggled. They can’t cause any turnovers, and are 22nd in yards allowed. Running backs are having no problem moving the ball against them, and this Baltimore team is top 10 in running. Look for Baltimore to have no issues moving the ball. By the way, in his one game against Baltimore, Manuel threw two picks and only completed 45 percent of his passes.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams

PICK: SEAHAWKS TO COVER

The Rams have won last the last three meeting when playing Seattle at home. Russell Wilson is 1-4 in his career at STL/LA. This is just like the Steelers over the Ravens last week. Generally, Seattle plays poorly on the road vs Los Angeles, but this game just seems different.

Russell Wilson scoring with ease in a previous matchup vs Rams (CBS Sports)

Everybody loves the Rams, and you can essentially already pencil in Sean McVay for AP Coach of the Year, but I am not sold yet. They are still giving up a lot of yards on the ground, as they rank 30th in rushing yards allowed. Los Angeles has also given up seven rushing touchdowns. Seattle likes to pound the football, so this is a major advantage.

Russell Wilson always gets better and better as the season goes on, and in Jared Goff’s only game vs. Seattle, he completed only 52 percent of his passes for a measly 135 yards. The Legion of Boom will not let Goff get going, and Seattle will have no problem covering in this matchup.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

PICK: PACKERS TO COVER

Las Vegas is really giving Aaron Rodgers three points against the team he destroyed in the postseason a year ago? The most talented quarterback of all time, Rodgers has played exceptionally well against the Cowboys. In eight career games, Rodgers has 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

Although Green Bay’s defense is nothing special, they are somehow sixth in the league in terms of fewest yards allowed, and fifth in fewest passing yards. The Cowboys defense has been pretty weak, allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw all over them. Dallas ranks 27th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 26th in first downs allowed. Keep in mind they are playing Aaron Rodgers this week, who already has 10 passing touchdowns.

This Dallas offense is not what it was a season ago. Last year, Cowboys were fourth in first downs, and first in rushing attempts. Today, they rank 20th in first downs, and 22nd in rushing attempts. Dak is proving to be an average game manager at best. He is 14th in passing yards, and 18th in quarterback rating. Vegas absolutely has this one wrong.

 

Featured image by Bleacher Report

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week 5 DFS don'ts

Week five DFS don’ts: Kicker and Defense

Week four was full of more quality football games and major upsets. It happened to be my best week in terms of DFS profitability and my player predictions. So, let’s jump right in to week five. It’s important to keep in mind that this is the first week multiple teams are on scheduled byes, so adjust your lineups and strategy accordingly. Here are the plays you need to avoid in my kicker and defense edition of week five DFS don’ts.

Greg Zurlein: FanDuel Price $5,300

Yes, I saw what Greg “The Leg” Zurlein did to Dallas on Sunday. It was incredibly impressive. However, can we please avoid spending up for a kicker who’s workload this weekend was the exception and not the rule? Zurlein, up to this point, hadn’t attempted more than three field goals this season. He has benefited from many extra point attempts, as he plays on the highest scoring offense in the NFL. But, that’s going to change this weekend.

The Rams will face Seattle this Sunday at home. That’s the first strike. Zurlein will be playing outdoors as opposed to in Dallas stadium. While the weather is perennially great in Los Angeles, it matters. His team will also be playing against a superior defensive unit. His extra point opportunities will absolutely be limited, as will his field goals chances.

Also, I refuse to pay up for a kicker. My DFS philosophy only requires my kicker to score double digit points. Now, if you play in primarily tournaments, Zurlein could be a good way to differentiate. However, I cannot justify paying for the most expensive kicker when there are plenty of options who can get me 10 points. So, given my philosophy, it’s no surprise the most expensive kicker is on my week five DFS don’ts.

Los Angeles Rams: FanDuel Price $4,800

week five DFS don'ts

The Los Angeles Rams are the league’s highest scoring offense, but their defense has surrendered at least 27 points in their last three games (Courtesy of; Orange County Register).

I’m not hating on the Rams. Todd Gurley made me profitable this weekend and I recommended Jared Goff on the Suck My DFS Podcast. However, the Rams have surrendered at least 27 points in their last three games. That includes allowing a staggering 39 points to the anemic San Francisco 49ers who could not reach the end zone at all last weekend.

They are facing a divisional opponents who has seemingly hit their stride. Russell Wilson and that passing game have drastically improved and will likely light up this Rams secondary. I know, divisional games tend to be lower in score because of the familiarity, but neither of these teams seem to be able to stop competent offenses.

The Rams have talent on the defensive front. They also have a great coordinator in Wade Phillips. I just don’t think they will be able to keep Seattle from connecting on the big pass play when they inevitably bring pressure. I’ll absolutely be looking to use the Rams defense in the future; however, their matchup lands them on my week five DFS don’ts list.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link on our Podcast page.

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