Jay Ajayi fantasy football

Was week 6 a fresh start for Jay Ajayi?

One of last season’s biggest surprises was Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi. After the signing of Arian Foster, Ajayi was bumped down on the depth chart to RB2.

After Foster decided to retire, Ajayi became the lead back, and the “Jay Train” took off from there. Ajayi became the fouth player in NFL history to rush for at least 200 yards in three games. He finished the season with 1,272 yards, eight touchdowns and an impressive average of 4.9 yards per carry. The beginning of this season hasn’t had the same result, but was week 6 a fresh start for Jay Ajayi?

Rough start

Ajayi, along with the entire Dolphins offense, has struggled mightily to start the 2017 NFL season. In five games Ajayi has had 102 rushing attempts to go along with a mere 391 yards. That equates to 3.8 yards per carry, one yard down from last year. Jay Train has struggled against subpar rush defenses like the Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets. Surprisingly, the defenses Ajayi has found success against have been Atlanta and the Los Angeles Chargers.

When given a heavy workload, we’ve seen the production we expect from Ajayi, including 26 carries for 130 yards against the Falcons and 28 rushes for 122 yards against the Chargers. However, his workload is inconsistent. In the other three games of his season, Ajayi didn’t have a game better than 3.8 yards per carry. He is the focal point of the Dolphins offense. When he is used like that, then we see great production.

Some of his inconsistency has come from the poor play of quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler has struggled like he did in his last years in Chicago, but this time it’s affecting not only his receivers, but Ajayi as well. This rough start has affected fantasy owners through the first quarter of the season, but things are looking up.

Bounce Back

Was week six a fresh start for Jay Ajayi?

Featured Image by athlonsports.com

Fantasy owners were probably annoyed that Ajayi didn’t get a touchdown to cap off his solid day, but things are on the up and up. In the second half of the season, we get to have Ajayi against the Patriots lackluster rush defense twice and the Jets defense another time. Ajayi struggled against the Jets the first time they played this season, but Miami will be looking for revenge especially as a playoff contender.

Again, when Ajayi gets the work he deserves, he succeeds. In two games with over 25 carries, Jay Ajayi has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 5.0 yards per carry, numbers similar to last season. Now the Dolphins do have the sixth hardest schedule in the NFL, but after they saw the success they had running the ball and with Cutler continuing to struggle, the Dolphins should look to run the ball more and more. The one who can benefit from that is Jay Ajayi.

For fantasy owners who considered shopping Ajayi to try and bulk up the rest of their team, hold off on that. Pro Football Focus gave Ajayi a grade of 91.0 from a game with 130 rushing yards. It is good to note that 96 of his yards came after contact, so when the holes weren’t there, Ajayi made the most of his opportunity and took the Falcons for a ride. Look for Ajayi to continue his success and reap the rewards.

 

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week six DFS don'ts

Week six DFS don’ts: Report Card

An interesting trend is starting to develop. It seems as though every three weeks I’m due for a dip in DFS profitability. Thus far, I’ve only failed to profit in weeks three and six. Does that mean I should just not play in weeks nine, twelve and fifteen? Of course not, if there’s a Sunday slate, I’ll play it. Let’s wrap up week six DFS don’ts with the dreaded report card.

Quarterback: 1/3

As some of you might have noticed, no week six DFS don’ts piece about quarterbacks. Sorry about that, won’t happen again. Anyways, Tom Brady came up just short of doubling his value against the Jets and Kevin Hogan was a huge disappointment. Thankfully, Kirk Cousins redeemed me by finishing as the top fantasy quarterback this weekend.

Running Back: 4/6

Not a bad week at the running back position. Leonard Fournette and Mark Ingram were great for my cash game lineups. Unfortunately, the Denver Broncos didn’t show up and that cost me huge with C.J. Andersen. As far as my week six DFS don’ts at this position, Carlos Hyde proved me wrong. I’m glad to see he’s reestablished himself as the lead back even if it was at my expense. Both Ameer Abdullah and Elijah McGuire failed miserably to double their value.

Wide Receiver: 2/5

I don’t count players who end up being out, so, I’m not counting DeVante Parker as part of my report card. DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Hogan shockingly didn’t produce double their value. I know DeSean Jackson didn’t technically double his value; however, I’m counting this as a win since he still managed to produce with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brandin Cooks came so close to proving me wrong, whereas Demaryius Thomas blew me away with 10 catches for over 130 yards.

Tight End: 1/4

Martellus Bennett was an easy pick. If you couldn’t tell a week ago, you can now. He doesn’t produce in this offense. Darren Fells, despite a lack of targets, still managed to produce. He’s officially supplanted Eric Ebron and is a viable DFS option moving forward. Ryan Griffin and AJ Derby were also bad calls despite great matchups.

Kicker: 2/2

At least I’m continuing to pick this position correctly. Aaron Rodgers injury aside, I didn’t like Mason Crosby going into this week. However, I loved Wil Lutz this week and he more than doubled his value.

Defense: 1/2

I will apologize for everyone who listened to the Suck My DFS Podcast and picked Denver as their defense. They were incredibly disappointing. Thankfully, Jacksonville laid an egg at home as I predicted.

Overall Score: 11/22

50% isn’t great, but, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation between who I pick and how much money I win. The weeks I’ve won the most money, I haven’t been great on individual player picks, and vice versa. The best thing about this game is that we can quickly move on to the next week. Come back tomorrow for which kicker and defense you should avoid in week seven.

 

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Stack your money Sunday’s: Week 6

WEEK FIVE REVIEW (3-0) OVERALL: 12-3

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Oakland Raiders

Baltimore Ravens 30 Oakland Raiders 17

I’ll never understand E.J. Manuel being favored in an NFL football game, but anyways, this game was rather predictable. Ravens had no problem scoring early against a weak Raiders defense, as Baltimore scored 24 of their 30 points in the first half. Manuel did not turn the ball over, but only managed to throw for 159 yards, and completed half of his passes.

On the other hand, Joe Flacco was rather efficient, and let the running backs control most of the offense. Justin Tucker had a perfect day, notching three field goals, and went a perfect three for three on extra points. With this win, the Ravens are now tied with the Steelers for best record in the AFC North.

 

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams

Seattle Seahawks 16 Los Angeles Rams 10

The Rams were a Cooper Kupp catch away from beating Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks. Luckily, had Kupp hauled in the last minute touchdown, the Seahawks still would have covered. Nonetheless, great win for Seattle, as they often struggle visiting the Rams.

The Seahawks defense came up big and made Jared Goff look like the rookie version of himself. Goff threw a pair of interceptions, and had a quarterback rating 48.9. He also had an abysmal completion percentage of 46.81.

Although Seattle now sits at a comfortable 3-2, the offense still has a lot of work to do. The Seahawks had a real hard time running the football against a weak Rams run defense, and Russell Wilson did not look great. The Rams had over 100 more total yards, so if it weren’t for their five turnovers, Seattle would have gotten blown out.

 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers 35 Dallas Cowboys 31

For a second, it looked like Dallas was going to win this one, but then I realized if you give Aaron Rodgers a minute and a timeout, you might as well quit. Rodgers was absolutely sensational, throwing three touchdowns, with a quarterback rating of 122.9. The sneakiest, elite performance was Aaron Jones. A rookie from UTEP, Jones rushed for 125 yards and scored his second touchdown in as many weeks.

The unsung hero of last week, Aaron Jones (Lombardi Ave)

Dallas had more first downs, total yards, third downs converted, and more time with the football than Green Bay, but it’s hard to beat Aaron Rodgers when you turn the ball over three times. Through five weeks, Dallas already has tied their loss total from last season. Not to mention they have Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension starting next game.

 

WEEK 6 PICKS

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

PICK: PACKERS TO COVER

As you can tell, this is now the second week in a row betting on the Packers, hence, Aaron Rodgers is really good and I would trust him with my life. Listen, the guy is 12-6 in his career vs. Minnesota, and has a quarterback rating north of 112. He’s completing 68% of his passes in these games and has 39 touchdowns.

The Vikings barely squeaked by against the Bears, who started a rookie quarterback for the first time, and are one of the most injured teams in the league. Last year, Minnesota ranked third in fewest passing yards allowed. Today, they are 20th. However, they do defend the run well, so it will be interesting to see if they will be able to slow down Aaron Jones, who looks to be the next Ahman Green.

The Packers are forcing a bunch of turnovers, and sit fifth in the league in that department. Their offense also stays on the field. Green Bay is 27th in three and outs, and also are arguably the most efficient team when it comes to scoring in the red zone. The Pack are first in the league in points per red zone trip, as well as first in touchdowns per red zone trip.

Sam Bradford will not play this Sunday, so this game could be over in a hurry. Minnesota is firth worst in touchdowns per drive, and are currently punting on 50 percent of their drives. Look for Aaron Rodgers to throw all over this team, and for Case Keenum to struggle moving the chains for Minnesota.

 

Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

PICK: JAGUARS TO COVER

Betting for the Jaguars to cover just sounds like a fun time. Honestly though, Jacksonville is one of the big surprises of the year. They are fifth in scoring and are first in rushing. The Jags defense is insanely elite. That sounds crazy, but they are one of four teams in NFL history with 20+ sacks, 10+ interceptions and 4+ defensive touchdowns through five games in a season. The Jaguars have allowed the second fewest points in the league, rank first in turnovers in created, first in interceptions, and third in fewest passing yards allowed. Jacksonville also allows the fewest points per drive.

We saw what Jared Goff looks like against a good defense last week, so expect more of the same this week. Also, the Rams are allowing the sixth most rushing yards, and the most rushing touchdowns in the league. Jacksonville loves to run the football, as we saw last week against the Steelers. Leonard Fournette and Chris Ivory combined for 222 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Bortles doesn’t look great, but the Jaguars are doing a wonderful job of masking his flaws. He is throwing less and they are winning more. In last week’s slaughtering off the Steelers, Bortles only threw a total of 14 passes. The Rams are 23rd in points allowed, and it is highly doubtful Jared Goff starts out 3-0 on the road. Have to believe in Post Marrone and the Jaguars squad to get another W.

 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (-3)

PICK: RAIDERS TO COVER

During our weekly podcast, the Raiders were a one-point favorite, and now that it is three, I am not even remotely worried. Derek Carr is playing, and his Raiders have won their last four matchups against the Chargers. The Raiders have lost three in a row, so this is essentially a must win. They cannot drop to 2-4 in a division with the Chiefs and Broncos.

Derek Carr and the Raiders look to remain hot against the Chargers (Raiders.com)

Because of Carr’s injury, Oakland will most likely run the ball a lot. This would make sense because the Chargers have allowed the most rushing yards in the league. They are literally allowing five yards per carry to opposing backs. LeGarrette Blount ran wild against them, so expect a big game from Marshawn Lynch.

With Carr healthy, this is a totally different team. Philip Rivers has already thrown five interceptions and their defense has not been great. Los Angeles is 25th in yards allowed per drive. They are allowing the fourth most points per drive and are the 31st rank defense in terms of time of possession per drive. The Chargers defense cannot get off the field, and will struggle mightily against Carr and the Raiders offense.

Featured image by Jacksonville.com

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2017 Fantasy football season

Halfway point in fantasy season

We are about the halfway point of the fantasy season. We have seen it all this season, from rookie success to injured superstars and everything in between. Here are the big headlines at the halfway point of the fantasy season.

Ezekiel Elliott may not be available down the stretch

Ouch! The first big headline we have to get out of the way here. On Thursday, a federal appeals court overturned a district court’s decision in the Ezekiel Elliott case. This means the Dallas Cowboys running back’s six-game suspension has been reinstated.

The worse part is it happened on the bye week, which means his suspension will start next week and he will miss weeks 7-12. This a big blow to fantasy owners of Elliott because he may not be available down the stretch to the playoffs especially with how many running backs are out there. This opens the door for Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden.

The top two quarterbacks are Alex Smith and Deshaun Watson

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith and Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson are the top two quarterbacks in fantasy. What’s even more surprising is both of them are the top players in fantasy. Both were on fire against each other last week, combining for eight passing touchdowns and 62.4 fantasy points.

2017 Fantasy football season

Alex Smith (Photo by: profootballweekly.com)

Not to say Smith is a bad quarterback because he isn’t, but he’s not been known to be a reliable fantasy quarterback. Last year he finished as the 22nd best quarterback in fantasy.

This year he and the Chiefs have turned it around. He’s averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game, which is best in 2017. He is also playing at a MVP caliber and is leading the NFL in both passer rating and completion percentage. Smith has proven to be a legitimate QB1 at this point of the season.

Watson on the other hand has surprised a lot of people. It wasn’t surprising he would be taking over the Texans at quarterback, but not at this level.

After his week 5 performance against the Chiefs, he has proven he can play in this league. He threw for five touchdowns and had a 35 point performance. Through four weeks plus a half of a game in week 1, he’s taken over. He’s has 1,072 passing yards, 7.39 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, 179 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. He still may be a QB2, but like Smith, he has proven he can be relied on in good matchups.

The top defense is the JAcksonville JagUars

Jacksonville Jaguars fans finally have something they can cheer for. Their defense is leading all defenses in fantasy points with 82. They have finally had some luck with good draft picks, good free agents signings and a good coaching staff.

2017 Fantasy football season

(Photo by: sports.yahoo.com)

Last week against the Steelers they picked off Ben Roethlisberger five times and returned two of them for touchdowns. That doesn’t happen very often.

The Jags are built around their defense. They have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league with A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey combining for four interceptions. With that in their defensive backfield, along with safeties Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson, they rank fourth in passing yards allowed. They also lead the league in interceptions and total turnovers and are third in fumbles.

The Jags may have some flaws in the run game, but their defensive line sure does get to the quarterbacks. They lead the league in sacks with 20, led by newcomer Calais Campbell along with Malik Jackson, Dante Fowler Jr. and Yannick Ngakoue. They really don’t have a weak spot in that defense. Expect them to continue to play well.

Two rookie running backs are top three in points at the position

Through five weeks, we have seen a couple of rookie running backs playing at a high level. Jacksonville Jaguar Leonard Fournette’s success may not surprise you especially with his role. But the big name leading all running backs is third-round pick Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs’ back has dominated since the opening week.

Let’s start with Hunt, who has dominated at the point of attack. He is in the top three in fantasy points overall and No. 1 among running backs. Hunt has rushed over 100 yards in four of the five games and is averaging 121.8 yards per game. He also leads running backs in yards and runs over 20 yards.

He’s averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game. The Chiefs overall are playing as the best team in the league and expect Hunt to still be the emphasis of their offense both running and passing.

Fournette is a big back and the staple of the Jaguars’ offense. He ranks third among running backs in fantasy and 10th in overall players. Fournette leads the league in touchdowns and rushing attempts. He also has the longest run this year by a running back. Fournette is in the top two in rushing yards and yards per game as well.

It may not be surprising that he’s doing this well, but in the Jag uniform, it surprises a lot of people that a player on that team is finding this much success. Fournette continues to be a top RB option in fantasy. That won’t change going forward.

Key Player Injuries

Some other big headlines this year are big names that have been injured. David Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., J.J. Watt, Andrew Luck, Derek Carr and Allen Robinson are all hurt. Luck hasn’t played yet and Johnson has been hurt since week 1. Carr could come back this week, but could miss more time. Beckham, Watt and Robinson are all out for the year.

2017 Fantasy football season

David Johnson (Photo by: azcentral.com)

Beckham and Johnson were the top players in fantasy at the start of the season. They were the key part of every team. Now fantasy owners are scrambling each week to find replacements.

Owners of Luck are also trying to find patience for his return after he was rumored to possibly start week 1. The Watt injury is a reflection of last year when the Texans were the No. 1 defense. It’s definitely a big injury, but the Texans have proved they can play without him.

Carr is risky to the end of the season with the possibility of coming back or possibly missing a few more weeks. Robinson has been a big injury as the Jags’ passing game has struggled since his injury.

Conclusion

It’s been an interesting first five weeks of the season. Key players haven’t been relied on and the lower tier players have made an impact. We’ve seen surprising players reach top fantasy status and rookies continuing to pound the running game. We still have six to seven weeks left in the regular season, and it shouldn’t disappoint.

 

Featured image from sportingnews.com

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Fantasy football week 6: Three waiver wire targets

The Ezekiel Elliott suspension is official. Now fantasy owners have to make up for his loss this week and for the next six weeks. Plus the Cowboys, Bengals, Seahawks and Bills are on a bye this week so players like A.J. Green, LeSean McCoy, Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and many more won’t be in your lineup. Here’s three players who you can pick up that will help you fill those voids in your lineup this week.

QB- Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)

Once again, Carson Palmer makes this list. If you didn’t pick him up last week, you may be thinking that you avoided a bullet, but that’s not true. Carson Palmer continued his consistent season with 15 points against a stout Eagles defense. After passing for 291 yards and one touchdown, Carson Palmer jumped up to 12th on the quarterback rankings in standard scoring. Now Tampa Bay travels to Arizona to take on Palmer and the Cardinals.

fantasy football week 6: three waiver wire targets

Carson Palmer (Photo by: azcardinals.com)

The Tampa Bay defense is a good defense, but their strength is their front seven. They haven’t performed like they would’ve wanted to so far this year, but the main playmakers are on the defensive line and linebacker positions. The Bucs’ secondary has given up an average of 19 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks including 27 to Case Keenum in week three.

With the addition of Adrian Peterson and the always reliable Larry Fitzgerald, look for Carson Palmer to have a big week against the Buccaneers in week six.

RB- Adrian Peterson (Arizona Cardinals)

If you need to fill a spot left by Ezekiel Elliott, look Peterson’s way. The Cardinals have been looking for someone to replace the injured David Johnson and they think that AP can be the guy. “All Day” struggled to get into a groove with New Orleans, but that’s because of the limited touches he’s received in the first five weeks of the season.

Again, the Buccaneers travel to Arizona where Peterson faces what I said was a tough defense. The Cardinals want to get their running game going and it is necessary if they want to win more games this season. This starts with Adrian Peterson. He’ll be new to the playbook and it may be a week before he gets going in Arizona, but he’s worth the pickup until David Johnson is healthy again.

WR- Sterling Shepard (New York Giants)

Tough week for the Giants. They lost not only Odell Beckham Jr., but also recently acquired Brandon Marshall. Add the injury to Dwayne Harris to that list, and the Giants become very, very thin. Someone who has to step up for them is Sterling Shepard. The second year wide receiver also went down last game with an ankle injury but seems to be ok.

Now I usually wouldn’t advise picking up a wide receiver who is playing the Denver Broncos defense, but the volume will be there for Shepard. With the run game basically non-existent for New York, Eli Manning has to take the game into his own hands, and he seems excited to work with his new group of receivers. Shepard will be the clear number one for the Giants and we can all assume that Eli will be looking for him a lot on Sunday.

 

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Hagan's Haus 2017 NFL picks (week 6)

Hagan’s Haus 2017 NFL picks week 6

Welcome to Hagan’s Haus, where football is the only thing that matters. You won’t find me in a church on Sunday because football is my religion and the number one priority in my life. I am so excited that the NFL season is finally back in action! I pride myself in studying the game of football. We can’t get all our picks or predictions right, but I am going to leave it here in the open every week for everyone to see. In Hagan’s Haus, it’s all about bragging rights. 

Who is the best? Because winning is the only thing that matters. We don’t get points for second place. I challenge you to post comments on your weekly picks and compare them to mine. This isn’t about point spreads. I will give a score prediction, but winning is winning. Doesn’t matter if it’s by an inch or a mile. So try and beat me in picking NFL games. I promise you it won’t be easy, but it will be fun. Here are Hagan’s Haus 2017 week 6 NFL picks.

Last week: 5-8

Overall: 37-39

Teams on byes: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Seattle

Thursday Night

Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) @ Carolina Panthers (4-1):

Sunday Morning

Miami Dolphins (2-2) 13 @ Atlanta Falcons (3-1) 28: The Dolphins are trending in the wrong direction and maybe people will finally see that Jay Cutler is no solution to a problem under center. Miami averages just 251.3 yards per game resulting in just 10.3 points per game. It is going to take three times as many points to beat Atlanta who is averaging 26 points per game themselves. Matt Ryan is going to thoroughly outperform Jay Cutler to push Atlanta to 4-1.

Detroit Lions (3-2) 35 @ New Orleans Saints (2-2) 37: Detroit is coming off a home loss to the Panthers in which the game wasn’t as close as the score was. The Lions looked really good in the first three weeks but haven’t looked as good in the last two games. The Saints, on the other hand, have a two-game win streak and are coming off of a bye. This game has the feeling of a shootout and Drew Brees is a hard man to outscore. The Saints are favored by five points. They won’t cover the spread, but they will win sending the Lions to .500.

Hagan's Haus 2017 NFL picks (week 6)

(Photo Credit: Matt Blewett/The Minnesota Sports Report)

Green Bay Packers (4-1) 20 @ Minnesota (3-2) 24: Very few football minds will be picking the Vikings in this game, but this is really a 50-50 game, especially in Minnesota. The Vikings have a defense that has, at times, caused fits for Aaron Rodgers. They have held Rodgers under 15 points in two of the last three matchups. The one thing that could be tough for the Vikings is scoring. Their offense is missing key pieces and interchanging quarterbacks like socks. The defense must dominate for Minnesota to have a chance. They will be dominant and get the upset at home.

New England Patriots (3-2) 45 @ New York Jets (3-2) 17: New York was supposed to be winless but instead find themselves with three wins. It is extremely surprising that they are in this position but the surprises end here. New England is going to make a massive statement in this game. They will go to New York and put up 40 points behind a 350-yard performance from the great Tom Brady. This will be a blowout.

San Francisco 49ers (0-5) 20 @ Washington Redskins (2-2) 24: Personally, I don’t think the Redskins are all that good of a team this season but are 2-2 and get a chance to play a winless team at home which favors Washington. There will be a heavy dose of running from Washington clash as the Redskins have the seventh-ranked rushing attack and the 49ers give up 116.6 yards per game. San Francisco won’t be able to stop them and Washington will control the clock. This will be a close game on the scoreboard but the Redskins will dominate.

Chicago Bears (1-4) 24 @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2) 21: Bears fans should be smiling after last week. Mitchell Trubisky didn’t set the world on fire but showed tons of potential. Over time he will develop into a solid NFL quarterback. This week he has to face a good, stingy Raven defense. On the other side, the Ravens offense is one of the worst in the league which gives the Bears a chance. Due to the Ravens woeful offense, the Bears have a chance to win. Chicago is going to fly to Baltimore and get an upset behind a big game from Trubisky.

Cleveland Browns (0-5) 24 @ Houston Texans (2-3) 34: This is a great opportunity for DeShaun Watson to step on the field against the Browns and make them miserable for not selecting him in the draft. Watson is second in the NFL in touchdown passes and has looked really good. Sometimes the accuracy isn’t there but that is tolerable with his playmaking ability. Watson has another four-touchdown performance to make Brown fans puke.

Sunday Afternoon

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) 34 @ Arizona Cardinals (2-3) 38: Arizona made huge waves this week trading for Adrian Peterson but will it help them on the field? Probably not in his first game. He has to learn the offense and the Bucs only give up 87.3 yards per game. There will be a lot of passing in this game as both teams struggle to run the ball and both are good at stopping the run. Jameis Winston has a younger arm and a better supporting cast so the Bucs will go to Arizona and get a big road win.

Hagan's Haus 2017 NFL picks (week 6)

(Photo Credit: Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Los Angeles Rams (3-2) 24 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) 21: This game isn’t getting a ton of publicity but will be one of the best games of the week. The Rams have the fifth-ranked passing attack and the Jaguars have the third-ranked rush defense. If Los Angeles comes into the game planning to run they will win the game. Jacksonville gives up 146.4 rush yards per game, the second-worst in the NFL. Todd Gurley will have a career game and lead the Rams to a victory.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) 27 @ Kansas City (5-0) 31: The struggling Steelers are heading into Arrowhead to face the best team in the NFL. Big Ben said he may not have it anymore which means he will probably light it up to prove a point. Even if Big Ben does so, the Chiefs offense is just way too explosive to shut down. At some point, Kareem Hunt will hit a wall and have a bad game but it won’t be this week.

Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) 21 @ Oakland Raiders (2-3) 24: The site of the game may change with the crazy wildfires burning in California. That type of uncertainty can affect both teams.  It is still up in the air if Derek Carr will play but the Raiders should win regardless. They are the better team. Oakland will finally get their running game going as the Chargers have the worst rush defense in the league, allowing 161.2 yards per game.

Sunday Night

New York Giants (0-5) 0 @ Denver Broncos (3-1) 24: There is not much of a summary needed on why the Broncos will the game. Denver will run all over the Giants defense in a game that shouldn’t be televised nationally. They are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare for a Giants offense that can’t run the ball and has lost their receiving threats. Denver may even pull off a shutout in this game so that will be the prediction. A shutout.

Monday Night

Indianapolis Colts (2-3) 17 @ Tennessee Titans (2-3) 28: This is a must-win for both teams in order to stay in the divisional and playoff races. The Colts are trying to fight through the season until Andrew Luck can return to lead them. The Titans need to keep pace with Houston and Jacksonville to fulfill their preseason expectations of being a playoff team. Marcus Mariota is expected to play which will be the difference in the game. Titans move to .500 to keep pace in the AFC South.

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NFL week 6 picks

NFL week 6 picks against the spread

It was another solid effort last week. I went 7-7 against the spread and called three outright upsets. My record for the year is now 32-42-3. My picks are bolded, outright upsets have an asterisk and all lines are from rtsports.com at the time of my writing. The beat goes on.

Thursday Night

Eagles at Panthers (-3) – What a way to kick off the week. Both teams are exceeding expectations. We could see this matchup again in January. These teams win by dominating up front on both sides of the ball and letting their franchise quarterbacks make plays.

This is a close call. The only logic I have is that Thursday night games are set up for the home teams to perform better. Car 28 Phi 24

Sunday

Bears at Ravens (-6) – Mitch Trubisky made some plays and kept Chicago in the game during his NFL debut. The Ravens’ offense still leaves a lot to be desired. Even so, any rookie quarterback going on the road to face the Baltimore defense is in deep trouble. Bal 24 Chi 13

Browns at Texans (-10) – So far, Deshaun Watson has not been special. I said it. His best performance was in a loss to New England. Last week, his offense was ran out of the stadium before Kansas City backed off in the fourth quarter. He also guided Houston to a dominant victory over a Titans team that faced Houston’s elite defense primarily with a backup quarterback.

NFL week 6 picks

Photo: express.co.uk

There is a difference between being special and just being better than anything the Texans franchise has ever had at quarterback. Don’t be fooled.

The Browns played their best half of football when Kevin Hogan finally replaced an ineffective DeShone Kizer last week. With Houston now missing several key pieces on defense, Hogan is set up to perform well again. The winless Browns will remain that way, but not by much. Hou 24 Cle 21

Lions at Saints (-6) – Despite their traditional late rally, Detroit was beaten soundly by Carolina last week. New Orleans comes in off a bye and with its defense playing pretty well for a change.

This game will be the true test to see if the Saints recent defensive uptick has staying power. If it does, the rest of the league is in trouble. Drew Brees at home is always a solid bet, especially if he gets any kind of help from the defense. NO 30 Det 20

Packers (-3.5) at Vikings – The Packers are rolling right now. Aaron Rodgers continues to amaze. For the Vikings, quarterback issues and the loss of rookie workhorse running back Dalvin Cook are making life on offense look really tough at the moment. Minnesota’s defense is good enough to keep this respectable, but it is tough to see how the offense can be productive enough to win this one. GB 27 Min 17

NFL week 6 picks

Photo: theringer.com

Patriots (-9.5) at Jets – One of these teams was predicted by many to go undefeated this year. The other was bound to go winless in the minds of a lot of folks. Yet, here they are battling for first place six weeks into the season. Sports are amazing.

Obviously, the reigning Super Bowl champions have more offensive firepower. However, every opponent has been able to find some level of offensive success against the Patriots defense this year. The Jets have a top ten rushing offense that should be able to do some damage here. Additionally, this game is always close, even when the Jets are playing for nothing but pride. They played New England to the wire late last year.

As they so often do, New England will find a way to win. However, with the Jets at home, anything over a touchdown in this matchup feels like easy money. NE 28 NYJ 20

Dolphins at Falcons (-11.5) – Miami got back on track last week. However, the outlook remains bleak for the Dolphins. Jay Cutler did not even throw for 100 yards last week. This week’s opponent is quarterbacked by Matt Ryan, not Matt Cassel and is going to put up a whole lot more than 10 points. At home, the Falcons have been held to 17 or fewer points just twice since November 2015.

Meanwhile, Miami has scored just 41 total points in four games this season. That includes a defensive touchdown from last week. With that kind of scoring, it is a miracle this team is .500 rather than winless. This game has the potential to be a blowout. Atl 35 Mia 13

49ers at Redskins (-10) – The winless 49ers have lost four consecutive games by three points or fewer. The Redskins’ offense is prolific and productive and coming off a bye. The 49ers will lose this one by a lot more than three points. A team from out west traveling east is often a component of a blowout as well. Was 31 SF 17

*Rams at Jaguars (-2.5) – Jacksonville’s defense might be the biggest surprise of the entire season to this point. However, in two of their three wins, Blake Bortles has failed to complete 15 passes. In the modern NFL, you cannot hide your quarterback to that extent and be a real threat. The Jags’ nice start is nothing more than a statistical anomaly for now.

Despite last week’s loss to division rival Seattle, the Rams are the much more complete football team here. This line shows you that even professional bookies overreact from time to time. LAR 24 Jac 14

Buccaneers (-2.5) at Cardinals – Anyone who tells you they know what is coming here is lying. Tampa Bay is a talented young football team that still makes a lot of silly mistakes and mental errors.

Arizona has the oldest roster in the league. After getting blown out by the Eagles last week, that roster looks ready to be put out to pasture. This is not 2009. Adrian Peterson will not change their fortunes. Tampa has more weapons to work with, but their two losses this year have been the kind that make a team tough to trust. I will nervously do so here. TB 23 Ari 17

*Steelers at Chiefs (-4.5) – This upset pick will probably raise some eyebrows. Often times though, when a team gets embarrassed like the Steelers did, they come back strong the next week.

Pittsburgh has been a model of stability for well over 30 years. Throw in the talent on the roster, and they have earned the benefit of the doubt for one more week. Moreover, Kansas City’s offense is off to an unbelievable start, but unless they are all-time great, they will come back down to earth very soon.

Even if this is not that week, Pittsburgh’s “Killer Bs” are more than capable of matching Kansas City in a shootout. Also, the Steelers are the far more desperate football team. Pit 34 KC 30    

*Chargers at Raiders (-4) – The Chargers finally finished a game and broke in to the win column last week. Oakland seems intent on rushing Derek Carr back from injury. After watching EJ Manuel last week, it is not hard to see why.

Even before the Carr injury, the Raiders’ offense had suddenly started to struggle in a big way. As long as Philip Rivers is around, the Chargers will always put up points. It is hard to have that same confidence in the Raiders right now. LAC 21 Oak 20

Giants at Broncos (-11.5) – Denver is fairly healthy and at home coming off a bye. The Broncos are a top 10 team in both rushing and stopping the run. The disastrous state of the Giants is well-documented. They are winless and their top three wide receivers are all down with injuries.

No one giving New York a chance here is understandable. However, the Giants still have a decent defense. Denver’s offense is pretty pedestrian. Blowouts are rare in the NFL, especially when the public expects them to happen. The Giants will keep this close, but ultimately find another way to lose. Den 22 NYG 14

Monday Night:

*Colts at Titans (-3) – With Marcus Mariota’s status still unclear, this is a tough game to find a line on at the moment. It will be another week of Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for the Colts. Brissett’s mobility helps hide the offensive line’s short comings and create something when nothing is there.

No matter who has been at quarterback for the Titans, they have struggled to score as of late. Indy’s offense is a bit more explosive and trustworthy at the moment. Ind 23 Ten 20

           

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2017 NFL power rankings: week 6

When was the last time the NFL had three teams start 0-5? There are some really bad teams this season. There is also one amazing team that looks like they have everything you need to win a Super Bowl. That team has been ranked first in the NFL since the opening Thursday. As for the rest of the league, there are a ton of teams that have shown great flashes but have also looked like pretenders. It is still too early to tell who are contenders and who is not. As the season goes on these rankings will continue to fluctuate but as of now here are the 2017 NFL power rankings: week 6.

32. New York Giants (0-5)

Last week: 31 (-1)

Next game: away vs. Denver

The Giants are one of three winless teams in the NFL but their miserable rushing attack and now decimated receiving corp is the biggest reason they are dead last in these rankings. They were already struggling but the loss of Odell Beckham just kicked the Giants when they were down. There is little to no chance they win this week and it is beginning to look like the Giants may not win more than three games this year.

31. Cleveland Browns (0-5)

Last week: 32 (+1)

Next game: away vs. Houston

Cleveland fans have to be hurting even more than usual this week. DeShone Kizer got the nod from the start but has been benched and now the Browns don’t know who the starter will be moving forward. To make matters worse the Browns passed on DeShaun Watson and he is off to an unbelievable start. One smart writer said the Browns could not pass on Watson and this week they will get a first-hand look at what they missed out on.

30. San Francisco 49ers (0-5)

Last week: 29 (-1)

Next game: away vs. Washington

The 49ers need an offense and it shows weekly averaging just 17.8 points per game. The 49ers are going to give Washington a tougher game than people expect but it probably won’t be enough to win the game. San Francisco will win somewhere around two games this season so don’t expect them to move much more in the power rankings.

29. Los Angeles Chargers (1-4)

Last week: 28 (-1)

Next game: away vs. Oakland

Los Angeles finally got a win and it was on the road on the other coast. It wasn’t a pretty win but they got the job done. This week they head to Oakland who has underperformed greatly this season. It is another opportunity for the Chargers to get a win. In their division, they won’t make noise but in this crazy game, a win could keep them alive for a wild-card spot. It is unlikely they get a spot in the playoffs, but mathematically the Chargers still have a lot to play for.

28. Indianapolis Colts (2-3)

Last week: 30 (+2)

Next game:  away vs. Tennessee

The Colts are treading water until Andrew Luck gets back. If they are in the race of the AFC South when he returns the Colts can become a possible playoff team. Without Luck, they are averaging 19.4 points per game. When he returns he can raise that total by an entire touchdown, he’s that valuable. If they want to stay in the race for the playoffs they need to get a win against Tennessee and that seems unlikely.

27. Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

Last week: 22 (-5)

Next game: home vs. Tampa Bay

Do you ever just feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald? The guy does everything the right away and is a first ballot Hall of Famer but has rarely been on a good team. Arizona is totally lost on offense without David Johnson and they need to figure out the kinks soon because Johnson isn’t coming back anytime soon. At 2-3 they are far from out of it and only one game behind in their division. The trade for Adrian Peterson shows that they want to turn this season around and make a run.

26. New York Jets (3-2)

Last week: 26 (no change)

Next game: home vs. New England

The Jets are an organization that makes you scratch your head. With all the moves they made this offseason it clearly felt like a tank. Here we are though after five weeks and the Jets are 3-2 and in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East. If the Jets were trying to tank they have done a horrible job. Since it has been so hard to see if the Jets are serious about being a good team, this week will prove who they really are as they take on the Patriots.

25. Chicago Bears (1-4)

Last week: 25 (no change)

Next game: away vs. Baltimore

The Bears have hope, which is about all they have. Mitchell Trubisky is showing signs but it is going to take some time for him to develop. Chicago is going to need to surround Trubisky with weapons to give him the opportunity to succeed. The Bears have a good defense it is just decimated by injury. This season won’t be a good one but hold your heads high Bear fans, the future looks solid.

24. Oakland Raiders (2-3)

Last week: 12 (-12)

Next game: home vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders were one of the teams that were expected to make a run in the AFC. They are struggling to live up to the hype. Marshawn Lynch was acquired to help the run game but the Raiders are only averaging 90.6 yards per game. The air attack is also abysmal averaging just 188.6 yards per game. The offense was supposed to be the dominant unit and it is average at best. The defense isn’t picking up the slack giving up 351.2 yards and 21.8 points per game. The Raiders look nothing like a Super Bowl contender.

23. Miami Dolphins (2-2)

Last week: 27 (+4)

Next game: away vs. Atlanta

Jay Cutler needs to go back into retirement. Cutler threw for 92 yards against the Titans and is averaging just 176.5 yards per game. The entire Miami offense is averaging just 231.2 yards per game. That is the worst mark in the NFL. With such a bad offense the Dolphins are going to struggle to win many more games this season. This week they face Atlanta who will be too much for the Dolphins to handle. Dolphin fans should enjoy this rank because it will get worse from here on out.

22. New Orleans Saints (2-2)

Last week: 23 (+1)

Next game: home vs. Detroit

Not much to say about the Saints after coming off of a bye is what this was going to say until the Saints traded Adrian Peterson. New Orleans loves rookie running back Alvin Kamara and will be moving away from the experiment with Peterson. Moving forward the Saints will still look to air the ball out behind Brees. If they can keep playing the way they have the two weeks before their bye then they may have a shot at the playoffs. It all depends on the defense and how they play.

 

21. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

Last week: 24 (+3)

Next game: Bye

Yes, the Bengals did get a huge win against the Bills. Some of you may get upset that they only moved up three spots but it is more due to the fact that the other teams are just better than them up to this point. If the Bengals continue to get in the win column they will demand more respect. As of now they still have an average Andy Dalton under center. Until he can prove he can be more than average than the Bengals will be average. This week they get a rest as they are on a bye.

20. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

Last week: 20 (no change)

Next game: home vs. Chicago

Baltimore is hard to watch. Their offense does nothing exciting. The Ravens average just 288.8 yards per game resulting in just 18 points per game. It is somewhat miraculous that the Ravens are above .500 because their defense is giving up 19.4 which is more than they are scoring. If this trend continues then the Ravens will end up with a top 10 pick in the 2018 NFL draft.

19. Washington Redskins (2-2)

Last week: 17 (-2)

Next game: home vs. San Francisco

Washington had a bye week but still dropped two spots in the rankings. Similar to the Saints, other teams are just better teams at this point. It is still very early and a lot can change but the Redskins will struggle to make the playoffs. Losing Josh Norman is going to hurt the defense greatly. Until the Redskins can prove they are good against good opponents, and consistently, they will remain in the lower half of the rankings. THis week won’t help them as they face one of the worst teams in the league. They better win this game or they will look even worse.

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)

Last week: 18 (no change)

Next game: away vs. Arizona

Tampa put up a heck of a fight against Tom Brady and the Patriots but they fell short of the win. Their biggest issue is the kicking game. If they can solve that problem then they can become a contender in the NFC. Another problem facing the Bucs is their extremely tough division. The Panthers look similar to the team that went to the Super Bowl and the Falcons are continuing to win games. This week they face Arizona who just acquired Adrian Peterson. It will be interesting to see the outcome of this one.

17. Houston Texans (2-3)

Last week: 15 (-2)

Next game: home vs. Cleveland

Houston just suffered two major blows on defense. They lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to season-ending injuries. This could prove to be detrimental to their chances at making the playoffs. The defense was already struggling to stop offenses. Houston was giving up 26 points per game. Luckily, the Texans do have DeShaun Watson. Watson will now and forever be known as the “Houston Houdini”. He also ranks second in passing touchdowns even though he didn’t start until week two. Watson is now the only hope the Texans have as the defense has fallen. This week he is going to make the Browns regret the fact they didn’t draft him.

16. Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

Last week: 13 (-3)

Next game: Bye

Dallas suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Packers. Dak Prescott did what he was supposed to by leading his team down to take the lead with 1:13 left in the game. The problem was he left too much time for Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is struggling to run the ball to the same success they did last season. It was their formula for success because they controlled the clock and kept the defense off the field. Until they get their run game going they will be a middle of the pack team.

15. Tennessee Titans (2-3)

Last week: 16 (+1)

Next game: home vs. Indianapolis

Tennesse lost to Miami but without Marcus Mariota nobody expected them to win. Many predicted that the Titans would take a big leap and make the playoffs but they are struggling through the first five weeks. The biggest issue is the defense is giving up over 28 points per game. That number needs to come down drastically. This week they have the luxury of playing the Colts. Even if Mariota can’t go they should still win this game behind their ninth-ranked rushing attack.

14. Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

Last week: 9 (-5)

Next game: home vs. Jacksonville

The Rams fell victim to one of the most backward rules in the NFL but the fact of the matter is they still lost to the Seahawks. It is relatively early and it is still extremely possible for them to still have a great season. It is vital they defend their home field this week against the defense juggernaut Jaguars. If they win this game they have a chance to shoot back up in the rankings.

13. Minnesota Vikings (3-2)

Last week: 14 (+1)

Next game: home vs. Green Bay

Sam Bradford has an issue with his knee that seems like isn’t going away. If there is no structural damage and this much going wrong with his knee, his career could be in jeopardy. Case Keenum came in against Chicago and performed well. He has looked solid but is not a guy you want starting 16 games. Teddy Bridgewater should be ready to roll sooner rather than later. Wouldn’t be a phenomenal story if he came back and led the Vikings to the promised land? Until the quarterback situation in Minnesota is handled they will have to continue to rely on their talented defense and won’t be true contenders.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

Last week: 2 (-10)

Next game: away vs. Kansas City

Big Ben may have lost it, as he said himself. He is really struggling to ball this season. In fact, the entire Pittsburgh offense looks out of sync. Le’Veon Bell isn’t having the impact many were predicting and the Steelers are only one game above .500. Now they must go into Arrowhead and face the hottest team in the NFL. All signs point to the Steelers dropping this game and that is when they usually find a way to win. If they do they will vault back into the top five. If they lose, they won’t move much lower than they are now.

11. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

Last week: 20 (+9)

Next game: Bye

Seattle got an impressive win against the Rams last week. It put them in the driver seat in the race for the NFC West crown. As has been the case for the last five years, the Seahawks are doing it with defense. Seattle is only giving up 17.4 points per game, which is fifth best in the NFL. As long as they keep playing great defense, the Seahawks have a chance to win every game they play. Russell Wilson will make just enough plays for the offense to do its part.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

Last week: 19 (+9)

Next game: home v. Los Angeles Rams

Who the hell are the real Jacksonville Jaguars? Are they the team that destroyed the Texans 29-7, the Ravens 44-7 and the Steelers 30-9? Or are they the team that lost to Tennessee three touchdowns and the Jets by three? The answer is both. Jacksonville has the best secondary in the NFL and the proof is in their pass defense that allows just 177.8 yards per game and has a league-leading 10 interceptions. Jacksonville is young and they need to continue running the ball. If they keep the ball out of Bortles’ hands they will continue to defy the odds and make it to the playoffs.

9. Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Last week: 6 (-3)

Next game: Bye

It wasn’t a joke when I said that Buffalo had a trap game in Cincinnati. Everyone was expecting a Bills win but they aren’t that team yet. The Bengals are a solid football team that wasn’t going to let an up and coming team like the Bills to just walk into their jungle and win Buffalo is still a good team though with a great defense. That defense will continue to carry them to a lot of wins and possibly a playoff berth.

8. Detroit Lions (3-2)

Last week: 4 (-4)

Next game: away vs. New Orleans

Detroit almost pulled off yet another comeback at home against the Panthers. Cam Newton put a stop to that though. Detroit is actually relying on their defense much more this season. The Lion’s offense ranks 29th in total yardage but managing to score a lot of points still. Detroit still has to prove they can be a great team for a 16 game season and this week they have a trap game in New Orleans. The Saints are favored by the bookkeepers in Vegas for a reason. Be wary Lion fans, they just may drop this game in New Orleans.

7. Atlanta Falcons (3-1)

Last week: 11 (+4)

Next game: home vs. Miami

Atlanta was able to move up four spots because some of the teams that played looked rather putrid. The Falcons, however, are still a team with only one loss and couldn’t look bad coming off their bye. This week they get to face Jay Cutler and the Dolphins. They are fortunate to get such a weak opponent after two weeks of preparation. Atlanta should win easily but it won’t help them move further up in the power rankings.

6. New England Patriots (3-2)

Last week: 10 (+4)

Next game: away vs. New York Jets

10 weeks from now nobody will remember that the Patriots were 3-2 because they will probably still only have two or three losses. It is what the Patriots do. New England got a win on a short week thanks to shaky special teams play from the Bucs. Their reward is facing the Jets who, let’s face it, are playing way above their ability as of late. New England will win easily in New York and everyone will be praising how great the Patriots are.

5. Denver Broncos (3-1)

Last week: 8 (+3)

Next game: home vs. New York Giants

Denver is also coming off of a bye week and they too get to face an opponent whose season is already over. The Broncos get to play an offense that can’t run the ball and is decimated at wide receiver. The Giants may not score in this game. Denver is also going to run the ball down the Giant’s throats. This game can’t really help the Broncos too look good but getting upset can make them look really bad. There shouldn’t be much movement from Denver from this week to the next unless the teams above them lose.

4. Green Bay Packers (4-1)

Last week: 7 (+3)

Next game: away vs. Minnesota

It does not matter who the Packers put on the field, as long as they have Aaron Rodgers. The man is a football God who can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants. Whether in the pocket or on the run he can place the ball anywhere it needs to be and when it matters most he elevates his game. Green Bay is the favorite to win the NFC North as long as Aaron Rodgers is suiting up. That also means the Packers are going to be a threat in the NFC playoffs. Green Bay looks good but only because of the baaaaad man Aaron Rodgers.

3. Carolina Panthers (4-1)

Last week: 5 (+2)

Next game: home vs. Philadelphia

Is Cam back or what? Man, it is fun to watch that man play at the top of his game. Two weeks ago many were writing Cam off as a good player. Some were even saying his M.V.P season was a fluke. That was foolish and I am happy to not be included in that group. Like him or not, the man is a baller. He went into New England and Detroit in back to back weeks and threw for over 300 yards. Oh, and he got two massive road wins. Carolina is a contender again and everyone should fear the Panthers because of Superman.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)

Last week: 3 (+1)

Next game: away vs. Carolina

It was hard to pick who the second best team in the NFL was but the Eagles have slightly earned this spot in the power rankings. Everything seems to be clicking for Philly. Their defense forces turnovers and can get to the quarterback. Offensively they are pretty balanced ranking fifth in the NFL in rushing and eighth in passing. This week they have to travel to Carolina and face the red-hot Panthers. If they win on the road they will validate this ranking. If not they are still a top five to 10 team in the NFL.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

Last week: 1 (no change)

Next game: home vs. Pittsburgh

It is starting to sound like a broken record but there shouldn’t be a surprise on who the best team in the NFL is. They are also the lone undefeated team remaining. Alex Smith is the front-runner for M.V.P because he is lighting it up. Kareem Hunt is the front-runner for rooking of the year as well. Kansas City has the highest scoring offense in the NFL averaging 32.8 points per game. Until someone beats the Chiefs there is no debate.

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week six DFS don'ts

Week six DFS don’ts: Kicker and Defense

While choosing a kicker and defense can seem mundane and pointless, those positions can be the difference between winning and losing. When I make lineups, I have the same tight end, kicker, and defense. It helps keep my lineups consistent in terms of scoring and structure. Thankfully, I had the Dolphins defense and Harrison Butker on every single cash and tournament lineup in week five. So, let’s find out who you should avoid in this special teams edition of week six DFS don’ts

Mason Crosby: FanDuel Price $4,800

This might be the first and last time I every break down the long snapper and holder for any team ever. However, it was talked about at nauseam during the game. The Packers had a new long snapper and holder entering their contest with the Dallas Cowboys. I’m a believer that a professional kicker should make the extra point with few exceptions. Clearly, those new players had a negative impact on Mason Crosby.

Personnel aside, the opportunities will be limited this weekend. The Minnesota Vikings at home have played incredibly well as a defensively. The Packers showed early that they will allow pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and, the Vikings have a superior unit to the Cowboys at almost every level. I don’t see Crosby paying off on his $4,800 price tag. And as always, I believe there are much better options that are cheaper and in a better situation. Green Bay and their special teams personnel have landed Crosby on my week six DFS don’ts list.

Jacksonville Jaguars: FanDuel Price $4,900

week six DFS don'ts

The Jaguars defense proved they are an elite unit with their performance against the Steelers on the road last Sunday (Courtesy of; Jaguars.com)

Here is my weekly public service announcement about not chasing points. The Jacksonville Jaguars did what most NFL teams fail to do, stick to their identity. Despite the score, the Jaguars continued to run the ball and trust their defense.

Frustration aside, they did not abandon their offensive identity. Sadly, the Steelers resorted to throwing the ball 55 times and played right into the strength of the Jaguars defense. It was the perfect situation for Jacksonville.

That will not happen again this weekend. While I still have doubts about the Rams offense, they have established an identity, and they stick to it. Todd Gurley had his season-low in total touches with 15. This was the second time this season Gurley had less than 20 total touches.

Coincidentally, it led to their second loss of the season. The Rams will return to featuring Gurley this weekend and take the Jaguars’ corners out of the game by distributing the ball in between the hashes.

It’s entirely possible the Jaguars score 11 or 12 points. And, if those are your expectations, then roster them. Just please, do not expect them to record another five turnovers and two touchdowns on defense this weekend.

 

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The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real

The Jacksonville Jaguars just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points. Who would have known that a team that just lost to the New York Jets in overtime would turn around to knock off one of the preseason top contenders in the AFC.

The Jaguars are a possession away from being 4-1 and as of Oct. 8, sit on top of the AFC South at 3-2.

The Jaguars have lost their number one wide receiver (Allen Robinson) and still have proven people wrong through the first five weeks of this season. Leonard Fournette has hit the ground running and is the front runner for Rookie of the Year.

Their offense hasn’t been spectacular but their defense has proven that they are here to stay. Is this the year for the Jaguars to get through the AFC South and make the playoffs?

Defense

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars defense, Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports.

In five games this season, the Jaguars have given up 83 points, which comes out to slightly under 17 points per game.

In those same five games, they have scored four defensive touchdowns. They are only allowing 147 yards per game through the air and have been getting timely turnovers to help the defense get off the field.

In total the Jaguars have generated 10 turnovers, and four of them have led to scores.

At the end of week five the Jaguars defense gave an elite quarterback absolute fits. Ben Roethlisberger completed 60 percent of his passes on his way to 312 yards, zero touchdowns and five interceptions, leaving his final QBR at 37.8.

They also managed to jumble up one of the league’s best running backs. Le’veon Bell finished with 15 carries for 41 yards, totally 3.1 yards per carry.

For a team defense in recent history has been a joke in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars have come and long way.

Rushing game

Jacksonville Jaguars

Leonard Fournette. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images).

Now let’s talk about the guy who is putting the offense on his shoulders. Leonard Fournette has five rushing touchdowns in the first five games and has 466 yards in those games.

He is averaging over four yards per carry and has 13 catches for 128 receiving yards and a touchdown as well. Fournette has been extremely impressive thus far for the Jaguars. Many were asking questions about Blake Bortles and his production, and Leonard Fournette has lightened the work load.

Bortles is averaging under 200 yards passing but the key for the offense has been limiting mistakes. The offense doesn’t need to be spectacular when the defense has been this good. Sometimes the best thing for the offense is to punt it deep and let the defense do their thing.

With the defense playing so well, opposing offenses having to go 10+ plays on them is extremely difficult. If the Jaguars offense can limit mistakes and protect their defense, it makes it extremely difficult for opposing teams.

AFC South

The AFC South a month ago looked like it was going to be a dog fight. With Marcus Mariota banged up, the Jacksonville Jaguars are looking to take advantage.

With their rookie running back and strong defense leading the way, the Jags should be competing heavily for the AFC South title down the stretch. If they can minimize turnovers on offense and maximize them on defense they will be a tough team to stop.

Bold prediction: They finish at 12-4 and win the AFC South.

 

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